30 Apr 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: The Dow Finishes April Over 570 Points In The Red, Followed By Nasdaq And The S&P 500 Over One Percentage Point Down Closing At Session Lows

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 570 points or 1.49%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 2.04%,
  • S&P 500 closed down 1.57%,
  • Gold $2,305 down $53.00,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $82 down $0.92,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.690% up 0.080 points,
  • USD index $106.28 up $0.700,
  • Bitcoin $59,598 down $3,313 (5.05%)

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.


Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – May 2024 Economic Forecast: No Real Change So Expect The Economy To Continue To Plod Along


Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite posted a year-over-year increase of 7.3% in February 2024, up from a 6.6% increase in the previous month. Not good news for those who do not own a house.

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® deteriorated for the third consecutive month in April 2024, retreating to 97.0 (1985=100) from a downwardly revised 103.1 in March. Despite these three months of weakness, the gauge continues to move sideways within a relatively narrow range that’s largely held steady for more than two years. Dana M. Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board stated:

Confidence retreated further in April, reaching its lowest level since July 2022 as consumers became less positive about the current labor market situation, and more concerned about future business conditions, job availability, and income. Despite April’s dip in the overall index, since mid-2022, optimism about the present situation continues to more than offset concerns about the future. In the month, confidence declined among consumers of all age groups and almost all income groups except for the $25,000 to $49,999 bracket. Nonetheless, consumers under 35 continued to express greater confidence than those over 35. In April, households with incomes below $25,000 and those with incomes above $75,000 reported the largest deteriorations in confidence. However, over a six-month basis, confidence for consumers earning less than $50,000 has been stable, but confidence among consumers earning more has weakened.

The Chicago Business Barometer, also known as the Chicago PMI, dropped to 37.9 in April 2024, down from 41.4 in the prior month and below market forecasts of 45. The latest reading indicated that Chicago’s economic activity contracted for the fifth successive month in April, and at a robust pace, marking the strongest decline since November 2022. The markets look to the Chicago PMI as a forward indicator of the ISM Manufacturing Index which will be released tomorrow. The Chicago PMI is showing a terrible manufacturing picture.

 

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

 

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

May 2024 Economic Forecast: No Real Change So Expect The Economy To Continue To Plod Along

Authored by Steven Hansen

EconCurrent‘s Economic Index was unchanged and remained slightly in positive territory. The economy remains very stratified where some sectors are going gangbusters whilst others are barely above recessionary levels. There remain three major indicators that suggest a recession is coming.  Read on to understand the currents affecting our economic growth.

Today Through the Fourth Friday (22 to 28 days) Weather Outlook for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted April 30, 2024

It is difficult to find a more comprehensive Weather Outlook anywhere else with the ability to get a local 10-day Forecast also.

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here but it is unlikely to have changed very much. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Tue Apr 30 2024
Valid 12Z Tue Apr 30 2024 – 12Z Thu May 02 2024

…Severe Weather and Excessive Rainfall concerns for parts of the
Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley and Great Plains through mid-week…

…Critical Fire Weather potential over portions of the Southern High
Plains on Wednesday…

…Cool and snowy in the Northwest; warmer across the Central and Eastern
U.S….

A pair of low pressure systems will bring showers and thunderstorm
activity to parts of the Central and Eastern U.S. respectively today. The
Central U.S. system will progress quickly through the Plains and into the
Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley today/tonight. The Storm Prediction Center
issued an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of Severe Thunderstorms for parts of
the Middle Missouri Valley into the Central Plains for this
afternoon/evening where very large hail, severe wind gusts and a few
tornadoes are expected. Some storms may produce heavy rain with high
rates, which is why a Slight Risk (at least 15%) of Excessive Rainfall
leading to Flash Flooding is in effect for parts of southeastern Kansas
into northeastern Oklahoma. Another area of low pressure is forecast to
develop out of the Southern Plains, and generate another round of storms
across the Plains and Mississippi Valley on Wednesday. SPC issued another
Enhanced Risk of Severe Thunderstorms over much of central Kansas and
northern Oklahoma while we have a broader Slight Risk of Excessive
Rainfall extending from northeastern Texas up into eastern Nebraska and
much of Iowa. A few tornadoes, very large hail and damaging winds are
possible from any severe storms that occur.

Meanwhile, a slow moving mid-level low anchored over the Northwest will be
the reason why they experience below average temperatures over the next
few days. Embedded shortwave energy will support high elevation snow for
the Cascades and Northern Rockies, where snowfall accumulations will be in
the general range of 6-12 inches with isolated higher amounts possible by
Thursday morning. An amplifying ridge over the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast
will support above average temperatures across most of the eastern third
of the country over the next several days. Strong southerly flow into the
Plains beneath the right exit region of the upper trough will promote
warming across the region over the next few days. Lee cyclogenesis will
contribute to dry and windy conditions across portions of the Southwest
and Southern High Plains, which will support a Critical Risk of Fires on
Wednesday.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

29 Apr 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street Markets Opened Fractionally Higher, Traded Sideways, Indexes Closed About Where They Opened

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 147 points or 0.38%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 0.35%,
  • S&P 500 closed up 0.32%,
  • Gold $2,346 down $1.00,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $83 down $1.12,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.624% down 0.047 points,
  • USD index $105.62 down $0.280,
  • Bitcoin $62,815 down $941 (1.48%)

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.


Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – April 2024 Economic Forecast: Economy Marginally Improving But Growth Will Be Weak


Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Texas manufacturing survey‘s output strengthened slightly in April 2024. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, rose from -4.1 to 4.8. Other measures of manufacturing activity were mixed this month. The new orders index remained negative, though it pushed up seven points to -5.3. The capacity utilization and shipments indexes turned positive this month, coming in at 4.2 and 5.0, respectively. Manufacturing is not a bright spot in the current economy.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Today Through the Fourth Friday (22 to 28 days) Weather Outlook for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted April 29, 2024

It is difficult to find a more comprehensive Weather Outlook anywhere else with the ability to get a local 10-day Forecast also.

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here but it is unlikely to have changed very much. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Mon Apr 29 2024
Valid 12Z Mon Apr 29 2024 – 12Z Wed May 01 2024

…Severe Weather and Flash Flooding concerns shift into the Lower
Mississippi Valley today…

…High-elevation snow is forecast to overspread the Pacific Northwest
into the Northern Rockies Monday and Tuesday…

…Warmer than average temperatures spread from Midwest to Mid-Atlantic;
colder weather returns to the Northern Plains and the Pacific Northwest
with warming trend across the central/southern High Plains…

Fortunately, the worst of the heavy rain and thunderstorms should be
behind us by this evening. The complex of storms responsible for Flash
Flood emergencies over parts of eastern Texas overnight, are forecast to
move through southeastern Texas and southern Louisiana today. The Storm
Prediction Center has a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) out for parts of
southern Louisiana due to the threat of severe wind gusts and hail. We
issued a Slight Risk (at least 15%) of Excessive Rainfall leading to Flash
Flooding for much of central/southern Louisiana for today due to the
potential for high rain rates in that aforementioned line of storms.
Meanwhile, snow showers are likely to develop over the higher elevations
of the Northwest this morning and continue into early this evening before
tapering off. Another round of snow showers are expected to occur on
Tuesday afternoon/evening over the same area beneath another upper-level
disturbance. Snowfall on the order of 6-12 inches with isolated higher
amounts are forecast to accumulate over parts of the Cascades and Northern
Rockies by Tuesday morning.

An organized low pressure system will spread showers and thunderstorms
across the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. The Storm
Prediction Center issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of Severe Thunderstorms
for parts of eastern Nebraska, western Iowa, northwest Missouri, eastern
Kansas, southeast South Dakota and southwest Minnesota on Tuesday with a
risk of very large hail, severe wind gusts and a few tornadoes being the
primary threats. Downstream of this, scattered to isolated showers and
thunderstorms will move through the Ohio/Tennessee Valley and into the
East Coast on Tuesday. The Excessive Rainfall Outlook remains Marginal (at
least 5%) for those areas at this time.

Temperature-wise, upper troughs propagating through the Northwest and
Northern Plains/Upper Midwest will keep things cooler than average today.
Things warm up a bit across the Central U.S. up into the Upper Midwest on
Tuesday. Temperatures will be well above average across much of the East
Coast this week with today being the warmest of the bunch. There’s a
chance for several stations in the Mid-Atlantic to tie or break high and
low temperature records today and tomorrow with highs in the 80s to low
90s and lows in the 50s and 60s.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

Federal Deficit Spending (Quarterly) and Inflation. Part 4

This article concludes the analysis of the correlation patterns between quarterly Federal Deficit Spending (FDS) and Consumer Inflation (CPI).  The last of the three types of inflation patterns (time periods with no significant inflation trends) is the subject of analysis here.  The other two types of patterns (inflation surges1 and disinflation/deflation surges2) were analyzed previously.  The conclusion discusses the correlation patterns for all time periods, looks for any common threads, and identifies important differences across time periods and types of correlation patterns.


From photo by Live Richer on Unsplash.

Today Through the Fourth Friday (22 to 28 days) Weather Outlook for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted April 28, 2024

It is difficult to find a more comprehensive Weather Outlook anywhere else with the ability to get a local 10-day Forecast also.

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here but it is unlikely to have changed very much. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sun Apr 28 2024
Valid 12Z Sun Apr 28 2024 – 12Z Tue Apr 30 2024

…More rounds of excessive rainfall and severe weather expected to push
eastward into the Lower Mississippi Valley today and Monday…

…High-elevation snow is forecast to spread inland from the Pacific
Northwest into the Northern Rockies on Monday…

…Warmer than average temperatures spreads from Midwest into Mid-Atlantic
today while well below average temperatures shift from the Four Corners
and Rockies into the Northern Plains…

More active and unsettled weather is forecast to continue across the
mid-section of the country through the remainder of the weekend into
Monday. Multiple disturbances embedded within a slow-moving upper-level
trough responsible for the active weather are currently developing another
low pressure system over the Central Plains. Today, the main area of
thunderstorms will push farther eastward toward the Mid and Lower
Mississippi Valley with a slightly lower threat of severe weather than
Saturday. Meanwhile, the heaviest rains should push farther southeast into
the ArkLaTex region as the trailing cold front associated with the low
pressure system begins to weaken. The center of the low is forecast to
track northeast across the Central Plains on Sunday, reaching into the
upper Midwest on Monday. Strong to locally severe thunderstorms can be
expected to extend northeast across these areas including the Midwest
ahead of a warm front to the east of the low pressure center. Meanwhile,
the threat of heavy rain will push farther southeast into the Lower to
Mid-Mississippi Valley as the cold front pushes eastward. There’s are
Slight Risk (at least 15%) of Excessive Rainfall leading to Flash Flooding
over portions of the eastern Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley
today and extending into just the Lower Mississippi Valley/central Gulf
Coast on Monday. The Storm Prediction Center issued an Enhanced Risk
(level 3/5) of Severe Thunderstorms across portions of the eastern
Southern Plains and Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley today.

Elsewhere, another low pressure system will begin to move away from the
Great Lakes into Canada with scattered showers ending over the Upper Great
Lakes but continuing from the Lower Great Lakes into New England. Strong
southerly flow behind a high pressure system will bring very warm air
northward into the East Coast through the next couple of days with high
temperatures climbing well into the 80s to possibly near 90 degrees for
the interior Mid-Atlantic. These temperatures will be in contrast to the
cool temperatures expected for the Pacific Northwest by Monday as the next
upper-level trough from the Pacific is forecast to push inland. This
trough will bring widespread high-elevation snow and lower elevation rain
across the Pacific Northwest toward the Northern Rockies on Monday with
increasingly windy conditions as a low pressure system begins to develop
over the Northern High Plains into southern Canada.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

The North American Monsoon (NAM) – Posted on April 27, 2024

In this article, I am presenting information from the National Weather Service and some other parts of NOAA on the North American Monsoon (NAM) which really is the Sonoran Monsoon but we wanted to have our own so we appropriated it. When the Sonoran Monsoon leaks into the U.S. it is called the NAM. The quoted material is indented and my comments are in boxes.

Yes and no.  Yes, it is a season not a single storm. Tucson NWS is Monsoon Headquarters and they had criteria for determining when the Monsoon started and stopped but it was felt that these were too complicated for Americans so they changed to a calendar start and stop time which works well.

The starting point for understanding the NAM or pretty much anything in Meteorology is to think about the time of the year. In the winter, the prevailing westerlies and the jet stream dominate weather in the CONUS. In the summer they still have an impact but other mechanisms can come into play.  No time in this article to explain it but the ITCZ moves to the north.

I would like to add that the differential heading of land and water in Mexico causes moist air to rise creating thermal low which kind of shoves the high north of it to the north. The mountains also play a role in sometimes blocking air flows and uplifting air masses which causes precipitation. It is quite complex but we are going to simplify it a bit in this article.

This map shows the percentage of annual precipitation that arrives during the Monsoon Season.  You can see that the NAM is very important to  Arizona, New Mexico, Kansas,  Western Texas, and the small part of Southeast California. But it is important to many other states as well. It may not provide a disproportionate part of their annual precipitation but a good monsoon versus a poor monsoon has an impact on many states.  As you can see, it is even more important to Mexico.

There are more than four types but these are the main ones.  We will go into detail on each of them in the body of this article. But it is really simple when you think about a high being clockwise and a low being counterclockwise.  Where you have a low west of a high, the air will be shuttled to the north from Mexico. So first look for the position of the main high-pressure area. Then look for where the low is. You will be able to figure out which way the wind will be blowing. If it is coming from where moisture is, it is likely to rain.

Some readers will need to click on “Read More” to get to the body of the article.

Today Through the Fourth Friday (22 to 28 days) Weather Outlook for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted April 27, 2024

Accuweather Southern Plains Tornado Update HERE.

It is difficult to find a more comprehensive Weather Outlook anywhere else with the ability to get a local 10-day Forecast also.

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here but it is unlikely to have changed very much. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Valid 00Z Sun Apr 28 2024 – 00Z Tue Apr 30 2024

…More rounds of excessive rainfall and severe weather expected to push
eastward across the southern Plains tonight reaching into lower
Mississippi Valley on Monday…

…Snow over central Colorado gradually tapers off tonight but
high-elevation snow is forecast to spread inland from the Pacific
Northwest into the northern Rockies on Monday…

…Critical Fire Weather Risk over portions of the Southern High Plains…

…Warmer than average temperatures spreads from Midwest into Mid-Atlantic
on Sunday while well below average temperatures shift from the Four
Corners and Rockies into the Northern Plains…

More active and unsettled weather is forecast to continue across the
mid-section of the country through the remainder of the weekend into
Monday. Multiple disturbances embedded within a slow-moving upper-level
trough responsible for the active weather are currently developing another
low pressure system over the central Plains. Showers and thunderstorms
are expected to erupt in the warm and unstable air ahead of the low
pressure system east of a dry line from northern Texas through central
Oklahoma into eastern Kansas. A moderate risk of severe weather is
forecast through tonight per the Storm Prediction Center with the
possibility of large hail, damaging winds and multiple tornadoes. In
addition to the severe weather, intense rainfall rates are expected to
accompany these thunderstorms at times, leading to a moderate to locally
high potential of flash flooding to occur in these areas through tonight.
By Sunday, the main area of thunderstorms will push farther eastward
toward the mid- and lower Mississippi Valley with a slightly lower threat
of severe weather. Meanwhile, the heaviest rains should push farther
southeast into the ArkLaTex region as the trailing cold front associated
with the low pressure system begins to weaken. The center of the low is
forecast to track northeast across the central Plains on Sunday, reaching
into the upper Midwest on Monday. Strong to locally severe thunderstorms
can be expected to extend northeast across these areas including the
Midwest ahead of a warm front to the east of the low pressure center.
Meanwhile, the threat of heavy rain will push farther southeast into the
lower to mid-Mississippi Valley as the cold front pushes eastward.

Meanwhile, snow on the backside of the low pressure system is forecast to
gradually taper off tonight over central Colorado, and so will the areas
of mixed rain/snow extending into the Four-Corners as the system moves
farther away into the central Plains. Meanwhile, another low pressure
system will begin to move away from the Great Lakes into Canada with
scattered showers ending over the upper Great Lakes but continuing from
the lower Great Lakes into New England. Strong southerly flow behind a
high pressure system will bring very warm air northward into the East
Coast through the next couple of days with high temperatures climbing well
into the 80s to possibly near 90 degrees for the interior Mid-Atlantic.
These temperatures will be in contrast to the cool temperatures expected
for the Pacific Northwest by Monday as the next upper-level trough from
the Pacific is forecast to push inland. This trough will bring widespread
high-elevation snow and lower elevation rain across the Pacific Northwest
toward the northern Rockies on Monday with increasingly windy conditions
as a low pressure system begins to develop over the northern High Plains
into southern Canada. Meanwhile, dry and warm winds sinking down the
southern Rockies will continue to keep a critical fire weather risk over
the southern High Plains.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

26 Apr 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Small Caps Gapped Up At The Opening Bell, The S&P 500 Driven Higher By Tech Earnings, Markets Close Sharply Higher With The Nasdaq Over 2% higher

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 153 points or 0.40%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 2.03%,
  • S&P 500 closed up 1.02%,
  • Gold $2,351 up $6.00,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $84 up $0.08,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.669% down 0.037 points,
  • USD index $106.03 up $0.440,
  • Bitcoin $63,872 down $768 (1.19%),
  • Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. -6 to 613 Canada -9 to 118

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.


Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – April 2024 Economic Forecast: Economy Marginally Improving But Growth Will Be Weak


Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Real Disposable Personal income (DPI) increased 1.4% year-over-year in March 2024 – down from 1.7% in February., according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (tables 2 and 3). Real Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased 3.1% year-over-year (up from 2.3% in February). The PCE price index increased 2.7% year-over-year (up from 2.5% in February). Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 2.8% year-over-year (little changed from February). In summary, inflation adjusted income growth is now only half of the growth in spending – and inflation is not moderating. Not sure how the Fed can cut the federal funds rate under these conditions.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.