It is difficult to find a more comprehensive Weather Outlook anywhere else with the ability to get a local 10-day Forecast also.
This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.
First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here but it is unlikely to have changed very much. The images in this article automatically update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Fri May 03 2024
Valid 12Z Fri May 03 2024 – 12Z Sun May 05 2024…There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Western/Central Gulf Coast on Friday and the Southern Plains on Saturday……Heavy snow over the Sierra Nevada Mountains on Saturday…
…There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Central/Southern Plains…A front extending from the Great Lakes to the Southern Plains will slowly
dissipate on Friday while a new front develops over parts of the Central
Plains/Great Basin. Upper-level energy over the Southern Plains/Lower
Mississippi Valley and very moist air will aid in producing showers and
thunderstorms with heavy rain over parts of southeastern Texas and
Louisiana. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of
excessive rainfall over parts of the Western/Central Gulf Coast through
Saturday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized
areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and
low-lying areas the most vulnerable.In addition, some of the showers and thunderstorms will be severe.
Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the Southern High Plains through Saturday
morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent
lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes.
Further, there will be an additional risk of hail two inches or greater
over the area.Moreover, the developing front over western Kansas will cause a second
area of severe thunderstorms. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk
(level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Central High Plains
through Saturday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms
are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few
tornadoes.Furthermore, on Friday, showers and thunderstorms will develop along and
ahead of the front extending from the Great Lakes to the Lower Mississippi
Valley. The showers and thunderstorms will march eastward into the Lower
Great Lakes, Central Appalachians, Mid-Atlantic, and Southeast.By Saturday, the new front will extend from the Upper Great Lakes to the
Southern High Plains. Moisture pooling along the boundary will create
showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain over central Texas and parts of
southeastern Oklahoma. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level
2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern Plains from Saturday
into Sunday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly
localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams,
and low-lying areas the most vulnerable.Similarly, some of the showers and thunderstorms will be severe.
Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the Southern High Plains from Saturday into
Sunday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are
frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few
tornadoes. Moreover, there will be an additional risk of hail two inches
or greater over the area. The showers and thunderstorms will also develop
along and ahead of the front from the Great Lakes to the Ohio Valley.A dissipating front will move over the Appalachians into the Southeast on
Saturday. Rain showers will develop over parts of the Northeast into the
Mid-Atlantic. Additionally, showers and thunderstorms will extend from
parts of the Tennessee Valley to the Southeast.Meanwhile, upper-level energy over the Northern Rockies will create light
snow over parts of the Northern Rockies and Northern High Plains on
Friday, ending by Friday night. Moreover, a front over the Eastern Pacific
will move onshore over the Pacific Northwest overnight Friday, moving
inland to the Northern Intermountain Region and Southern California by
Sunday morning.The system will produce rain over parts of the Pacific Northwest Coast
overnight Friday, expanding into Northern California by Saturday morning.
Light snow will develop over parts of the higher elevations of the Pacific
Northwest on Saturday. As the front moves inland, rain expands into
Southern California on Saturday afternoon. Heavy snow will develop over
parts of the Sierra Nevada Mountains overnight Saturday into Sunday. By
Sunday morning, snow will move over parts of the Great Basin.
To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.
Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.
| Notices: What would you like to learn about? Please provide that to me via the comment section at the end of the article. |
Now more detail on the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear) (Key to surface fronts shown on maps and you will then also be able to insert a city name or zip code and get a local NWS forecast).
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
We have a new animation of the forecast which shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click ANIMATION. Doing so will get you to the dashboard. You can then step through the animation or hit LOOP on the upper right of the display. You will have to hit the back arrow ← at the top left on your computer to get back into this article. It is a little more trouble than before but I think NOAA scrapped the animation routine I was using so we have to keep up with “progress”.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. That takes you to the NWC Severe Weather Site. From there you can select among many categories of information. Remember to hit the back arrow ← at the top left of your screen to return to this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Ski SnowReports
New Feature – Ski Reports. It is difficult to find reports that auto-update on-screen (and they are very long) but these links will get you to them – If you have additional suggestions make them in the comments section after every Econcurrents Article and we may add those links. We will try to not have too much overlap as that can add to the confusion.
Snow Forecasts. And remember this shows natural snow. Ski resorts also make their own snow.
Day 1
Day 2
Additional snow information can be found here, here, here, and here. The second link provides animations.
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles. These links may also be useful for those viewing this article on a cell phone or other small screen.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
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10
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14 |
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4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast [that website is has been intermittent so be patient]
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE. Note that unless there is an out-of-season storm the below images will not update until the National Hurricane Center starts their seasonal update of these maps on June 1. I include them simply because there can be an out-of-season event in which case it should show up in these maps.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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