Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sun May 05 2024
Valid 12Z Sun May 05 2024 – 12Z Tue May 07 2024

…There is a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Southern Plains on Sunday and a Slight Risk over the Northern High Plains
and Central Plains/Middle Mississippi Valley on Monday…

…Heavy snow over the southern Cascades, Northern Rockies, and Uinta
Mountains on Sunday and Monday…

…There is a Moderate Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Central/Southern High Plains on Monday…

A front extending from the Northern Intermountain Region to Southern
California on Sunday will advance eastward to the Northern/Middle
Mississippi Valley and then to the Southern Plains. At the same time, the
associated surface low deepens significantly by Tuesday.

The system will produce rain and higher-elevation snow over parts of the
Pacific Northwest, Northern Intermountain Region, and Great Basin, with
heavy snow developing over parts of the Southern Cascades. Scattered rain
and higher-elevation snow will also develop over parts of California.
Overnight Sunday, the snow will expand into the Northern/Central Rockies
as light rain develops over the Northern High Plains.

On Monday, the snow will continue over parts of the Northern Intermountain
Region and Northern/Central Rockies, with heavy snow developing over parts
of the Northern Rockies and Uinta Mountains.

Moreover, moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will stream northward over the
Pains Sunday night into Monday and Tuesday. The moisture will aid in
creating showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain over parts of eastern
Montana. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of
excessive rainfall over parts of the Northern High Plains from Monday into
Tuesday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized
areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and
low-lying areas the most vulnerable.

Furthermore, showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain will develop over
parts of eastern Kansas/Nebraska and western Iowa/Missouri as the front
moves out of the Rockies onto the Plains. Therefore, the WPC has issued a
Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Central
Plains/Middle Mississippi Valley from Monday into Tuesday morning. The
associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash
flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the
most vulnerable.

More significantly, the system will produce showers and severe
thunderstorms as the boundary moves onto the Plains. Therefore, the SPC
has issued a Moderate Risk (level 4/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts
of the Central/Southern Plains from Monday into Tuesday morning. The
hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe
thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. There will be the
added threat of EF2 to EF5 tornadoes, severe thunderstorm wind gusts of 65
knots or greater, and hail two inches or greater over the area.

Meanwhile, another front extending from the Great Lakes to the Southern
Plains will slowly move eastward off the Northeast Coast on Sunday. At the
same time, the western portion returns northward as a warm front over the
Middle Mississippi/Ohio Valleys by Tuesday. Moisture from the Western Gulf
of Mexico will stream northward over eastern Texas, producing showers and
thunderstorms with heavy rain. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Moderate
Risk (level 3/4) of excessive rainfall over eastern Texas through Monday
morning. The associated heavy rain will create numerous areas of flash
flooding. Furthermore, many streams may flood, potentially affecting
larger rivers.

In addition, some of the showers and thunderstorms will be severe.
Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the Southern Plains through Monday morning.
The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning,
severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. Also, showers
and thunderstorms will extend from the Lower Great Lakes/Ohio Valley to
the Southeast on Sunday. The showers and thunderstorms will continue along
and near the boundary from the Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic and
southward from the Lower Mississippi Valley to the Southeast Monday into
Tuesday morning.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Fri May 03 2024
Valid 12Z Fri May 03 2024 – 12Z Sun May 05 2024

…There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Western/Central Gulf Coast on Friday and the Southern Plains on Saturday…

…Heavy snow over the Sierra Nevada Mountains on Saturday…

…There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Central/Southern Plains…

A front extending from the Great Lakes to the Southern Plains will slowly
dissipate on Friday while a new front develops over parts of the Central
Plains/Great Basin. Upper-level energy over the Southern Plains/Lower
Mississippi Valley and very moist air will aid in producing showers and
thunderstorms with heavy rain over parts of southeastern Texas and
Louisiana. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of
excessive rainfall over parts of the Western/Central Gulf Coast through
Saturday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized
areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and
low-lying areas the most vulnerable.

In addition, some of the showers and thunderstorms will be severe.
Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the Southern High Plains through Saturday
morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent
lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes.
Further, there will be an additional risk of hail two inches or greater
over the area.

Moreover, the developing front over western Kansas will cause a second
area of severe thunderstorms. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk
(level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Central High Plains
through Saturday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms
are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few
tornadoes.

Furthermore, on Friday, showers and thunderstorms will develop along and
ahead of the front extending from the Great Lakes to the Lower Mississippi
Valley. The showers and thunderstorms will march eastward into the Lower
Great Lakes, Central Appalachians, Mid-Atlantic, and Southeast.

By Saturday, the new front will extend from the Upper Great Lakes to the
Southern High Plains. Moisture pooling along the boundary will create
showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain over central Texas and parts of
southeastern Oklahoma. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level
2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern Plains from Saturday
into Sunday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly
localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams,
and low-lying areas the most vulnerable.

Similarly, some of the showers and thunderstorms will be severe.
Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the Southern High Plains from Saturday into
Sunday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are
frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few
tornadoes. Moreover, there will be an additional risk of hail two inches
or greater over the area. The showers and thunderstorms will also develop
along and ahead of the front from the Great Lakes to the Ohio Valley.

A dissipating front will move over the Appalachians into the Southeast on
Saturday. Rain showers will develop over parts of the Northeast into the
Mid-Atlantic. Additionally, showers and thunderstorms will extend from
parts of the Tennessee Valley to the Southeast.

Meanwhile, upper-level energy over the Northern Rockies will create light
snow over parts of the Northern Rockies and Northern High Plains on
Friday, ending by Friday night. Moreover, a front over the Eastern Pacific
will move onshore over the Pacific Northwest overnight Friday, moving
inland to the Northern Intermountain Region and Southern California by
Sunday morning.

The system will produce rain over parts of the Pacific Northwest Coast
overnight Friday, expanding into Northern California by Saturday morning.
Light snow will develop over parts of the higher elevations of the Pacific
Northwest on Saturday. As the front moves inland, rain expands into
Southern California on Saturday afternoon. Heavy snow will develop over
parts of the Sierra Nevada Mountains overnight Saturday into Sunday. By
Sunday morning, snow will move over parts of the Great Basin.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Thu May 02 2024
Valid 12Z Thu May 02 2024 – 12Z Sat May 04 2024

…Severe Thunderstorms and Flash Flooding concerns over portions of the
Central/Southern Plains and Mississippi Valley today…

…Cool and snowy in parts of the Northwest with above average and
potentially record breaking temperatures into the Ohio Valley and
Mid-Atlantic on today…

The main area of concern will be across the Central part of the CONUS over
the next couple of days. Shortwave disturbances emerging from the base of
a mid-level trough anchored over the northern tier will generate scattered
to isolated thunderstorms across the Plains and Mississippi Valley today.
Some storms could turn severe, particularly over portions of north-central
Texas, where the Storm Prediction Center issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5)
of Severe Thunderstorms. Thunderstorms over areas that received plenty of
rain recently may cause additional flash flooding concerns, which is why
there’s a targeted Moderate Risk (at least 40%) of Excessive Rainfall over
southeastern Texas. The primary threat of severe weather and excessive
rainfall wanes on Friday as the associated low pressure system and
associated storms move into the Ohio/Tennessee Valley and Lower Great
Lakes regions. A second cold front will sweep through the Great Plains on
Friday, bringing another round of showers and thunderstorms to the region.

An upper trough stationed over the Northwest will generate below average
temperatures across the northern tier today and Friday. This cool airmass
will support high elevation snow across the western mountains, but
particularly over the Northern Rockies, where 6-12 inches of snow are
expected by Saturday morning. A new low pressure system will emerge over
the Pacific Northwest on Friday night, bringing with it enough moisture
for low elevation rain and mountain snow. An upper level ridge downstream
of approaching shortwave impulses will generate well above average
temperatures from the Ohio Valley to the East Coast today and Friday. Some
areas within these regions may tie or break high temperature records
today. There’s a Moderate Heat Risk over portions of the Mid-Atlantic
today affecting individuals who are sensitive to heat, especially those
without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration. Temperatures will
cool down a bit heading into the weekend after a cold front pushes through.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Wed May 01 2024
Valid 12Z Wed May 01 2024 – 12Z Fri May 03 2024

…Severe Weather and Excessive Rainfall concerns for parts of the
Central/Southern Plains and Mississippi Valley…

…Critical Fire Weather potential over portions of the Southern High
Plains today…

…Cool and snowy in the Northwest; above average temperatures continue
across much of the Central and Eastern U.S….

The month of May kicks off with severe weather and excessive rainfall
threats over the Central U.S.. A developing low pressure system over the
Central High Plains of Colorado will contribute to the initiation of
scattered to isolated thunderstorms across the Great Plains today. The
Storm Prediction Center issued an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of Severe
Thunderstorms over parts of southwest Kansas into northwest Oklahoma this
afternoon into the evening. A few tornadoes, very large hail and damaging
winds are expected for the broader Central/Southern Plains region. The
surface wave will lift into the Central Plains this evening and support
enhanced rain rates over parts of northern Kansas, eastern Nebraska and
western Iowa, where a Slight Risk (at least 15%) of Excessive Rainfall is
in effect. Thunderstorms (some potentially severe) originating from a
dryline in the Southern High Plains will grow as they propagate into a
very moist environment in central and eastern Texas today. Given the
saturated soils from recent heavy rainfall, a Moderate Risk (at least 40%)
of Excessive Rainfall is in effect for portions of eastern Texas in
between the Dallas and Houston metros this evening. Elsewhere, showers and
thunderstorms should wrap up this afternoon across the Carolina/Southeast
coast.

Severe storms and excessive rainfall threats shift into the Mississippi
Valley on Thursday as the low pressure system moves into the region.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will proliferate across the
Central/Southern Plains and Mississippi Valley, where a Slight Risk of
Excessive Rainfall is in effect. The MCS associated with tonight’s
excessive rainfall threat will shift into the ArkLaTex region Thursday
morning. An upper trough anchored over the Northwest will support below
average temperatures across the region for the next few days. With cold
air in place, an embedded shortwave impulse will contribute to high
elevation snow across the Cascades and Northern Rockies. Between 6-12
inches of snow is forecast to accumulate with isolated higher amounts most
likely over northwestern Montana by Friday morning. Temperatures will
remain above average, for the most part, across the eastern half of the
country through Friday before a cold front moderates things a bit heading
into the weekend.