Authored by Steven Hansen

EconCurrent‘s Economic Index was unchanged and remained slightly in positive territory. The economy remains very stratified where some sectors are going gangbusters whilst others are barely above recessionary levels. There remain three major indicators that suggest a recession is coming.  Read on to understand the currents affecting our economic growth.

It is difficult to find a more comprehensive Weather Outlook anywhere else with the ability to get a local 10-day Forecast also.

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here but it is unlikely to have changed very much. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Tue Apr 23 2024
Valid 12Z Tue Apr 23 2024 – 12Z Thu Apr 25 2024

…Unsettled weather and severe thunderstorm chances ramp up across parts
of the central and southern Plains this week…

…Above average temperatures throughout the western and central United
States, with cooler weather in the Great Lakes and much of the East…

The mostly quiet weather pattern experienced the last few days over the
Lower 48 is expected to gradually retreat as an upper trough develops over
the western U.S. midweek and sparks increasing thunderstorm chances
throughout the Great Plains and parts of the Midwest. First, a pair of
cold fronts crossing the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley today will spread
showers and isolated thunderstorms over the region before reaching the
Northeast on Wednesday. Temperatures may drop rapidly enough for
precipitation to end as snow across northern New England. Meanwhile, a
trailing cold front entering the southern Plains will be the focus for
thunderstorms over the next few days from northern and West Texas to
central Oklahoma. A few storms could be capable of producing large hail
and damaging wind gusts across northwest Texas today, which has prompted
the Storm Prediction Center to issue a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe
weather. A few isolated severe thunderstorms may also develop off a
southern High Plains dryline on Wednesday ahead of the approaching western
upper trough. This upper level system will aid in more widespread shower
and thunderstorm activity throughout the central and southern Plains on
Thursday. Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible as low pressure
develops over the central High Plains and a strengthening dryline pushes
eastward, with most of the severe potential located between south-central
Nebraska and northern Texas. Along with the severe thunderstorm threat,
heavy rain could lead to isolated instances of flash flooding.

Elsewhere, unsettled weather is also in the forecast throughout parts of
the Great Basin and eventually the Pacific Northwest by Thursday as
initial upper ridging and well above average temperatures gradually erode.
Much of the rainfall is expected to be mostly beneficial outside of any
lightning potential with thunderstorms over the central Great Basin. Highs
throughout the southwest are anticipated to reach the 80s and 90s through
Wednesday, with 60s and 70s for much of the Intermountain West.

Cooler weather is in store for the Great Lakes and much of the eastern
U.S. beginning with the potential for frost this morning from the southern
Appalachians to southern New England. Lows dipping into the 30s here may
damage sensitive plants and vegetation if left unprotected. Temperatures
are forecast to rebound this afternoon as highs reach into the 60s and 70s
ahead of the next spring cold front entering from the Great Lakes tonight.
This will allow for midweek temperatures to drop to around 10 to 20
degrees below average for the Great Lakes and Northeast, equating to high
temperatures ranging from the 40s in northern locations to 60s along the
northern Mid-Atlantic coastline.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

The full data sets for the 71 years from 1952 to 2022 show no discernable association patterns (correlations) for nonfinancial credit growth and inflation changes.¹  Thus, we started an analysis by looking specifically at the various regimes of inflation change during the 71-year timeline.  The most recent post² analyzed the eight time periods over 71 years with positive inflation surges.  This article analyzes the five periods for 1952-2022 with negative inflation (disinflation/deflation) surges.

Photo by Dennis Siqueira on Unsplash.

Authored by Steven Hansen

EconCurrent‘s Economic Index again declined and continues slightly in negative territory. Being slightly in negative territory is not necessarily indicative of a recession, and we continue to believe a recession is not imminent. There remain four major indicators signaling a recession.  Read on to understand the currents affecting our economic growth.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 57 points or 0.15%,
• Nasdaq closed up 0.35%,
• S&P 500 closed down 0.01%,
• Gold $2,034 down $10.80,
• WTI crude oil settled at $72 up $0.04,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.913% down 0.015 points,
• USD Index $102.61 up $0.650,
• Bitcoin $42,202 down $792 ( 1.84% )
• Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. -3 to 623 Canada -9 to 185

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – December 2023 Economic Forecast: Economy Is Likely To Decelerate

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Industrial Production remains in a recession declining 0.4% year-over-year. The components: manufacturing declined 0.8%, mining up 2.3%, and utilities down 1.0%.

Business activity declined in the Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index fell twenty-four points to -14.5 continuing to oscillate around -8.6 — the average observed over the past year. New orders fell for a third consecutive month, and shipments also declined. Manufacturing continues in a recession in the U.S.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• U.S. Drillers Cut Drilling Activity Amid Stabilizing Oil Prices
• Houthis Continue To Attack Ships Near Vital Oil Chokepoints
• Santa Getting Boost From Lower Gasoline Prices
• Global Coal Demand Is Set to Hit a Record High in 2023
• Citigroup employees, on edge over layoffs, told they can work remotely until the new year
• 10-year Treasury yield slips, adds to this week’s steep decline
• The Dow will try to keep its record-setting momentum in the week ahead as more inflation data looms
• Intel’s stock sheds a bear as a key catalyst awaits
• Top Fed officials says the Fed isn’t ‘really talking about cutting interest rates right now’

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sun Oct 01 2023
Valid 12Z Sun Oct 01 2023 – 12Z Tue Oct 03 2023

…There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the east
coast of Florida on Sunday and over the Southern High Plains on Monday…

…There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Southern High Plains on Monday…

…Heavy snow over parts of the higher elevations of northeastern Utah…