Authored by Steven Hansen
EconCurrent‘s Economic Index again modestly improved and is slightly in positive territory. This does not mean the economy is going gangbusters but is continuing to plod along. There remain three major indicators that suggest a recession is coming. Read on to understand the currents affecting our economic growth.
Authored by Steven Hansen
EconCurrent‘s Economic Index modestly improved but continues insignificantly in negative territory. We continue to forecast that a recession is not imminent. One indicator (Conference Board Leading Economic Index) is no longer signaling a recession, but there remain three other major indicators that are. Read on to understand the currents affecting our economic growth.
We have found that the correlation relationships between various types of credit and inflation are variable over time. So far, the kinds of credit studied are government spending,1 consumer credit,2 and mortgage debt.3 Here, we address another category of credit spending, Nonfinancial Corporate Credit. This series studies the correlation between Nonfinancial Corporate Credit and CPI inflation.
Image by THAM YUAN YUAN from Pixabay.
This book is the first of two volumes encapsulating Carmine Gorga’s lifetime research in economics. Dr. Gorga is a political scientist1 who has been contributing to economic thinking for nearly 60 years.
The preceding post, Part 7, introduced some concepts applicable to complex system analysis. These included representations of reality and a property called ergodicity. This article delves more deeply into the challenges that arise from these sources in modeling complex systems.
NOTE: This preliminary draft has been revised and expanded. The finished article can be seen here.
The preceding post, Part 7, introduced some concepts applicable to complex system analysis. These included representations of reality and a property called ergodicity. This article delves more deeply into the challenges that arise from these sources in modeling complex systems.
The complexity of analyzing a process as simple as flipping a coin three times raises concerns about how to describe reality in modeling. In dealing with coin flips, we have a known probability for the result of each flip. Also, many modeling scenarios may have more than three elementary steps. Additionally, the probabilities associated with elementary steps may not be known. How does this complicate the modeling process? This review will address that question with specific emphasis on social science models, especially economics.
Authored by Steven Hansen
EconCurrent‘s Economic Index again declined and is now slightly in negative territory. Being slightly in negative territory is not necessarily indicative of a recession, and we continue to believe a recession is not imminent. There remain four major indicators signaling a recession. Read on to understand the currents affecting our economic growth.
Written by Steven Hansen
The Federal Reserve data release (Z.1 Flow of Funds) – which provides insight into the finances of the average household – shows a decrease in average household net worth from the previous quarter but up from one year ago. Our modeled “Joe Sixpack” – who owns a house and has a job, but essentially no other asset – is better off than he was a year ago.
Authored by Steven Hansen
EconCurrent‘s Economic Index declined but remains in positive territory. We do not see a recession baked in but there remain four major indicators signaling a recession. Read on to understand the currents affecting our economic growth.