Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 322 points or 0.85%,
• Nasdaq closed up 1.51%,
• S&P 500 closed up 0.91%,
• Gold $2,314 up $2.70,
• WTI crude oil settled at $79 up $0.01,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.583% down 0.008 points,
• USD index $105.34 down $0.410,
• Bitcoin $59,329 up $1,843 (3.20%)

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – May 2024 Economic Forecast: No Real Change So Expect The Economy To Continue To Plod Along

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

U.S.-based employers announced 64,789 job cuts in April 2024, a 28% decrease from the 90,309 cuts announced one month prior. It is also down 3.3% from the 66,995 cuts announced in the same month in 2023. So far this year, companies have announced 322,043 job cuts, down 4.6% from the 337,411 announced through April last year.

The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was up 16.4% year-over-year in March 2024 – the deficit is worsening. Imports are up  2.7% year-over-year while exports are up 1.4% year-over-year. A worsening trade deficit moderates GDP.

New orders for manufactured goods in March 2024 are down 0.9% year-over-year – down 1.3% inflation adjusted.  This is directly opposite to the Federal Reserves manufacturing index which is up 1.0% year-over-year. In any event, manufacturing is not doing well in the current economy.

In the week ending April 27, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims 4-week moving average was 210,000, a decrease of 3,500 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 250 from 213,250 to 213,500.

Nonfarm business sector labor productivity in 1Q2024 increased 2.9% year-over-year whilst unit labor costs increased 1.8% year-over-year. As long as productivity increases faster than costs – it slows export of jobs out of the U.S.

According to NFIB’s monthly jobs report, 40% (seasonally adjusted) of all owners reported jobs openings they could not fill in the current period, up three points from March, which was the lowest reading since January 2021. The percent of small business owners reporting labor cost as their top small business operating problem increased one point from March to 11%, only two points below the highest reading of 13 percent reached in December 2021.  NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg stated:

Hiring plans among small businesses increased once again in April, but open positions remain largely unfilled as owners struggle month after month to find employees. Overall, small businesses are not reporting net gains in employment as wage pressures and inflation keep the labor market tight.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Asian Oil Imports Dropped in April
• Clean Energy Sector Ignoring Growing Cybersecurity Threat, Experts Warn
• Stagflation Signals Soar as Manufacturing Surveys Show Skyrocketing Prices
• Gazprom Grapples with Historic Net Loss Amidst Gas Revenue Decline
• Exxon’s $60 Billion Pioneer Deal Set to Create Energy Supergiant
• Norway’s Cash Flow From Offshore Fields Crashes Due to Low Natural Gas Prices
• Dow closes more than 300 points higher, S&P 500 posts first winning day in three: Live updates
• Sony and Apollo send letter expressing interest in $26 billion Paramount buyout as company mulls Skydance bid
• Wall Street is confused and divided over how many times the Fed will cut rates this year
• Bitcoin climbs back to $59,000 after Fed signals it’s unlikely to raise rates: CNBC Crypto World
• IRS aims to more than double its audit rate for wealthiest taxpayers in strategic plan update
• “Sticky Inflation” Mentions On Earnings Calls Hits New High As Big Brands Warn About Buckling Consumers
• Weight loss drug wins 25,000 new US users a week
• 2-year Treasury yield ends at lowest in nearly a month after Powell suggests rate hike is unlikely

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 87 points or 0.23%,
• Nasdaq closed down 0.33%,
• S&P 500 closed down 0.34%,
• Gold $2,332 up $25.50,
• WTI crude oil settled at $79 down $2.82,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.626% down 0.058 points,
• USD index $106.11 down $0.120,
• Bitcoin $59,921 down $2,905 (4.86%)

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – May 2024 Economic Forecast: No Real Change So Expect The Economy To Continue To Plod Along

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The first paragraph of the Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting statement for 01May2024 tells the story why the federal funds rate was unchanged at 5.25 to 5.50 %:

Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. Job gains have remained strong, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation has eased over the past year but remains elevated. In recent months, there has been a lack of further progress toward the Committee’s 2 percent inflation objective.

Interestingly, they went on to say:

The Committee does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent. In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage‑backed securities. Beginning in June, the Committee will slow the pace of decline of its securities holdings by reducing the monthly redemption cap on Treasury securities from $60 billion to $25 billion. The Committee will maintain the monthly redemption cap on agency debt and agency mortgage‑backed securities at $35 billion and will reinvest any principal payments in excess of this cap into Treasury securities. The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.

The point being is that there remains significant pressure which is currently not allowing inflation to moderate – and it will not take much for inflation to accelerate.

According to ADP, private employers added 192,000 jobs in April 2024 – blue line on the graph below. The average pace of hiring has accelerated over the last three months after slowing late last year, almost matching gains made in the first half of 2023. Pay growth continues to slow. Only the information sector — telecommunications, media, and information technology — showed weakness, posting job losses and the smallest pace of pay gains since August 2021. Before the pandemic, it was estimated that the US economy needed to add 60,000–100,000 jobs each month to keep up with population growth and retirements. However, a Brookings Institution report estimates that sustainable employment growth could be between 160,000–200,000 jobs each month. Either way, employment continues to be a bright spot in the economy.

Construction spending during March 2024 was 9.6% above March 2023. During the first three months of this year, construction spending was 10.6% above the same period in 2023. Spending on private construction was up 7.3% year-over-year whilst public construction spending was up 17.9% year-over-year. Construction is another bright spot in the economy.

The Manufacturing PMI^® registered 49.2 percent in April 2024, down 1.1 percentage points from the 50.3 percent recorded in March. The ISM Manufacturing PMI® (Purchasing Managers’ Index) is a key economic indicator that gauges the health of the U.S. manufacturing sector. It’s published monthly by the ISM Manufacturing and Services business survey committees and is considered one of the most reliable economic barometers of the U.S. economy. Manufacturing continues its weak role in the economy.

The number of job openings changed little at 8.5 million on the last business day of March according to the JOB OPENINGS AND LABOR TURNOVER report (JOLTS). Over the month, the number of hires changed little at 5.5 million while the number of total separations decreased to 5.2 million. The number of job openings somewhat correlates to employment growth – and both have been slowly moderating but remain above historical levels.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Tanker Traffic Resumes at Beleaguered Freeport LNG Terminal
• Logistical Hurdles Could Halve Trans Mountain Export Projections
• Shell Quits China’s Power Markets
• Russian Uranium Import Ban Sends Shockwaves Through Energy Markets
• Oil Prices Plummet 3% on US Inventory Build, Inflation
• Is Copper Heading to $15,000?
• U.S. LNG Exports Continue to Fall as Freeport Plant Struggles With Outages
• Fed meeting recap: Powell pretty much rules out a hike and stocks like it
• Long-predicted consumer pullback finally hits restaurants like Starbucks, KFC and McDonald’s
• Super Micro plummets 14% after posting revenue miss
• Bitcoin sinks to its lowest level since February to start May: CNBC Crypto World
• UnitedHealth CEO tells lawmakers the company paid hackers a $22 million ransom
• The Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady, offers no relief from high borrowing costs — what that means for your money
• Bitcoin extends its slide to start May, falling to $57,000 as Fed leaves rates unchanged
• House prices fall as lenders raise mortgage rates
• Treasury yields end at lowest levels in at least a week after Fed’s Powell sees unlikely chance of a rate hike

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 570 points or 1.49%,
• Nasdaq closed down 2.04%,
• S&P 500 closed down 1.57%,
• Gold $2,305 down $53.00,
• WTI crude oil settled at $82 down $0.92,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.690% up 0.080 points,
• USD index $106.28 up $0.700,
• Bitcoin $59,598 down $3,313 (5.05%)

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – May 2024 Economic Forecast: No Real Change So Expect The Economy To Continue To Plod Along

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite posted a year-over-year increase of 7.3% in February 2024, up from a 6.6% increase in the previous month. Not good news for those who do not own a house.

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® deteriorated for the third consecutive month in April 2024, retreating to 97.0 (1985=100) from a downwardly revised 103.1 in March. Despite these three months of weakness, the gauge continues to move sideways within a relatively narrow range that’s largely held steady for more than two years. Dana M. Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board stated:

Confidence retreated further in April, reaching its lowest level since July 2022 as consumers became less positive about the current labor market situation, and more concerned about future business conditions, job availability, and income. Despite April’s dip in the overall index, since mid-2022, optimism about the present situation continues to more than offset concerns about the future. In the month, confidence declined among consumers of all age groups and almost all income groups except for the $25,000 to $49,999 bracket. Nonetheless, consumers under 35 continued to express greater confidence than those over 35. In April, households with incomes below $25,000 and those with incomes above $75,000 reported the largest deteriorations in confidence. However, over a six-month basis, confidence for consumers earning less than $50,000 has been stable, but confidence among consumers earning more has weakened.

The Chicago Business Barometer, also known as the Chicago PMI, dropped to 37.9 in April 2024, down from 41.4 in the prior month and below market forecasts of 45. The latest reading indicated that Chicago’s economic activity contracted for the fifth successive month in April, and at a robust pace, marking the strongest decline since November 2022. The markets look to the Chicago PMI as a forward indicator of the ISM Manufacturing Index which will be released tomorrow. The Chicago PMI is showing a terrible manufacturing picture.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Uranium Stocks Surge as White House Considers Russian Import Ban
• OPEC’s Oil Production Falls in April
• WTI Finds Support After Sell Off Suddenly Halts
• Geopolitics and Inflation Threaten to Derail Booming Stock Market
• Texas Producers Boost Flaring as Natural Gas Prices Tumble
• Marathon Petroleum Q1 Earnings and Revenue Beat Estimates
• Dow tumbles more than 550 points to wrap worst month since September 2022 as bond yields rise: Live updates
• Here’s everything to expect when the Fed wraps up its meeting Wednesday
• Cannabis stocks surge as Biden administration moves to reclassify marijuana
• Treasury yields finish April with biggest monthly jumps since 2022-2023
• Binance founder CZ sentenced to four months in federal prison

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 147 points or 0.38%,
• Nasdaq closed up 0.35%,
• S&P 500 closed up 0.32%,
• Gold $2,346 down $1.00,
• WTI crude oil settled at $83 down $1.12,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.624% down 0.047 points,
• USD index $105.62 down $0.280,
• Bitcoin $62,815 down $941 (1.48%)

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – April 2024 Economic Forecast: Economy Marginally Improving But Growth Will Be Weak

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Texas manufacturing survey‘s output strengthened slightly in April 2024. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, rose from -4.1 to 4.8. Other measures of manufacturing activity were mixed this month. The new orders index remained negative, though it pushed up seven points to -5.3. The capacity utilization and shipments indexes turned positive this month, coming in at 4.2 and 5.0, respectively. Manufacturing is not a bright spot in the current economy.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Rystad: Global Upstream Could See Another $150B Merger This Year
• Japanese Yen Surges in Apparent Currency Intervention
• Growing Shadow Fleet Makes Oil Price Cap Impossible to Police
• Battery Storage Is the No. 1 Energy Investment Playground
• Tesla Partners with Baidu for Full Self-Driving Rollout in China
• Saudi Arabia Is Expected to Raise Its Oil Prices to Asia to a 5-Month High
• Dow climbs more than 100 points, Tesla’s 15% pop pushes Nasdaq to close higher: Live updates
• Tesla jumps over 15% after passing key hurdle to roll out advanced driver-assistance tech in China
• Bitcoin and ether drop as investors question the U.S. economy’s strength: CNBC Crypto World
• Karen Firestone: Tech dominates the S&P 500. It’s time to ask whether it’s the best benchmark for investors
• Global Metals Markets Face Uncertainty As Russian Ban Takes Effect
• Three major lenders to raise mortgage rates
• Boeing scores $10 billion bond financing in ‘much-needed’ liquidity boost

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.