Authored by Steven Hansen
EconCurrent‘s Economic Index again declined and is now slightly in negative territory. Being slightly in negative territory is not necessarily indicative of a recession, and we continue to believe a recession is not imminent. There remain four major indicators signaling a recession. Read on to understand the currents affecting our economic growth.
Written by Steven Hansen
The Federal Reserve data release (Z.1 Flow of Funds) – which provides insight into the finances of the average household – shows a decrease in average household net worth from the previous quarter but up from one year ago. Our modeled “Joe Sixpack” – who owns a house and has a job, but essentially no other asset – is better off than he was a year ago.
Authored by Steven Hansen
EconCurrent‘s Economic Index declined but remains in positive territory. We do not see a recession baked in but there remain four major indicators signaling a recession. Read on to understand the currents affecting our economic growth.
Authored by Steven Hansen
EconCurrent‘s Economic Index improved and now is in positive territory. We do not see a recession baked in but there remain four major indicators signaling a recession. Read on to understand the currents affecting our economic growth.
Note: A major addition was added to the conclusion at 1:43 a.m. EDT on October 23, 2023.
This article concludes the analysis of the correlation patterns between Mortgage Debt and Consumer Inflation (CPI). The last of the three types of inflation patterns (time periods with no significant inflation trends) is the subject of analysis here. The other two types of patterns (inflation surges1 and disinflation/deflation surges2) were analyzed previously. The conclusion discusses the correlation patterns for all time periods, looks for any common threads, and identifies important differences across time periods and types of correlation patterns.
The full data sets for the 71 years from 1952 to 2022 show no discernable association patterns (correlations) for Mortgage Debt growth and inflation changes.1 Thus, we started an analysis by looking specifically at the various regimes of inflation change during the 71-year timeline. The most recent post2 analyzed the eight time periods over 71 years with positive inflation surges. This article analyzes the five periods between 1952 and 2019 with negative inflation (disinflation/deflation) surges.
From an image by Harry Strauss from Pixabay.
The full data sets for the 71 years from 1952 to 2022 show no discernable association patterns (correlations) for mortgage debt growth and inflation changes.1 This post continues that analysis by looking specifically at the various regimes of inflation change during the 71-year timeline.
From a photo by Tierra Mallorca on Unsplash
Mortgage debt is the third area of money creation that we examine for associations with inflation. Two previous studies have analyzed the areas of federal government deficit spending1 and consumer credit.2
From Photo by Kindel Media from Pixabay
Authored by Steven Hansen
EconCurrent‘s Economic Index improved and now is insignificantly in negative territory. We do not see a recession baked in but now four major indicators are signaling a recession. Read on to understand the currents affecting our economic growth.
This article concludes the analysis of the correlation patterns between Household and Nonprofit Organization Credit (HNO) and Consumer Inflation (CPI). The last of the three types of inflation patterns (time periods with no significant inflation trends) is the subject of analysis here. The other two types of patterns (inflation surges1 and disinflation/deflation surges2) were analyzed previously. The conclusion discusses the correlation patterns for all time periods, looks for any common threads, and identifies important differences across time periods and types of correlation patterns.
From a photo by Stephen Phillips – Hostreviews.co.uk, on Unsplash.
