Federal Deficit Spending (Quarterly) and Inflation. Part 4

April 28, 2024Posted inmacroeconomicsNo Comments

This article concludes the analysis of the correlation patterns between quarterly Federal Deficit Spending (FDS) and Consumer Inflation (CPI).  The last of the three types of inflation patterns (time periods with no significant inflation trends) is the subject of analysis here.  The other two types of patterns (inflation surges1 and disinflation/deflation surges2) were analyzed previously.  The conclusion discusses the correlation patterns for all time periods, looks for any common threads, and identifies important differences across time periods and types of correlation patterns.


From photo by Live Richer on Unsplash.

Federal Deficit Spending (Quarterly) and Inflation. Part 3

April 21, 2024Posted inmacroeconomics2 Comments

The full data sets for the 56 years from 1966 to 2022 show no discernable association patterns (correlations) for federal deficit spending (FDS) and inflation changes.1  Thus, we started an analysis by looking specifically at the various regimes of inflation change during the 56-year timeline.  The most recent post2 analyzed the seven time periods over 56 years with positive inflation surges.  This article analyzes the association between CPI changes and FDS changes during the four periods from 1966 to 2022 with negative inflation (disinflation/deflation) surges.


Image by Nicolae Baltatescu from Pixabay.

Federal Deficit Spending (Quarterly) and Inflation. Part 2

April 14, 2024Posted inmacroeconomicsNo Comments

The full data sets for the 56 years from 1966 to 2022 show no discernable association patterns (correlations) for U.S. federal deficit spending growth and inflation changes.1  This post continues that analysis by looking specifically at the various regimes of inflation change during the 56-year timeline.


From a photo by Giorgio Trovato on Unsplash

Federal Deficit Spending (Quarterly) and Inflation. Part 1

April 7, 2024Posted inmacroeconomicsNo Comments

We have found that the correlation relationships between various types of credit and inflation are variable over time.  So far, the kinds of credit studied are government spending,1 consumer credit,2 mortgage debt,3 nonfinancial corporate credit,4 and financial sector debt.5 Here, we return to federal deficit spending and inflation by analyzing data organized differently than previously used.


The Treasury Department Building in Washington DC. (Public domain, Wikipedia.)

Financial Sector Debt and Inflation. Part 4

March 31, 2024Posted inmacroeconomicsNo Comments

This article concludes the analysis of the correlation patterns between Financial Sector Debt (FSD) and Consumer Inflation (CPI).  The last of the three types of inflation patterns (time periods with no significant inflation trends) is the subject of analysis here.  The other two types of patterns (inflation surges1 and disinflation/deflation surges2) were analyzed previously.  The conclusion discusses the correlation patterns for all time periods, looks for any common threads, and identifies important differences across time periods and types of correlation patterns.


Image by Gerd Altmann from Pixabay.

April 2024 Economic Forecast: Economy Marginally Improving But Growth Will Be Weak

March 30, 2024Posted ineconomics, economy, macroeconomicsNo Comments

Authored by Steven Hansen

EconCurrent‘s Economic Index again modestly improved and is slightly in positive territory. This does not mean the economy is going gangbusters but is continuing to plod along. There remain three major indicators that suggest a recession is coming.  Read on to understand the currents affecting our economic growth.

Financial Sector Debt and Inflation. Part 3

March 24, 2024Posted inmacroeconomicsNo Comments

The full data sets for the 71 years from 1952 to 2022 show no discernable association patterns (correlations) for financial sector debt (FSD) and inflation changes.1  Thus, we started an analysis by looking specifically at the various regimes of inflation change during the 71-year timeline.  The most recent post2 analyzed the eight time periods over 71 years with positive inflation surges.  This article analyzes the association of FSD during the five periods from 1952 to 2022 with negative inflation (disinflation/deflation) surges.


Photo by Ehud Neuhaus on Unsplash.

Financial Sector Debt and Inflation. Part 1

March 10, 2024Posted inmacroeconomicsNo Comments

We have found that the correlation relationships between various types of credit and inflation are variable over time.  So far, the kinds of credit studied are government spending,1 consumer credit,2 mortgage debt,3 and nonfinancial corporate credit.4  Here, we address another category of credit spending, Financial Sector Debt (FSD). This series studies the correlation between changes in Financial Sector Debt and CPI inflation.


Photo by Chenyu Guan on Unsplash.

Nonfinancial Corporate Credit and Inflation: Part 4

March 3, 2024Posted inmacroeconomicsNo Comments

This article concludes the analysis of the correlation patterns between Nonfinancial Corporate Credit (NFC) and Consumer Inflation (CPI).  The last of the three types of inflation patterns (time periods with no significant inflation trends) is the subject of analysis here.  The other two types of patterns (inflation surges1 and disinflation/deflation surges2) were analyzed previously.  The conclusion discusses the correlation patterns for all time periods, looks for any common threads, and identifies important differences across time periods and types of correlation patterns.


From a photo by Josue Isai Ramos Figueroa on Unsplash.