Adventures With 3 Coin Flips. Part 7: Reality and Ergodicity

December 31, 2023Posted ineconomics, opinionNo Comments

The complexity of analyzing a process as simple as flipping a coin three times raises concerns about how to describe reality in modeling.  In dealing with coin flips, we have a known probability for the result of each flip.  Also, many modeling scenarios may have more than three elementary steps.  Additionally, the probabilities associated with elementary steps may not be known.  How does this complicate the modeling process?  This review will address that question with specific emphasis on social science models, especially economics.

Adventures With 3 Coin Flips. Part 6: Probabilities

December 17, 2023Posted inUncategorizedNo Comments

In Part 5, we found that there are 6,435 possible outcomes for the complete characterization of a process of repeating three coin flips.  This arises because a 3-flip sequence must be repeated eight times to allow for the possibility of all eight equally probable sequence results occurring.  In this article, we calculate the probability of obtaining any individual outcome and also the probability of obtaining an outcome of each of the 22 outcome types.

Adventures With 3 Coin Flips. Part 3: Possibilities vs. Realities

November 19, 2023Posted inUncategorizedNo Comments

Flipping a coin three times seems like a simple process.  But there are myriad complications that can arise.  In Part 1 of this series, we saw that data sampling for coin flips can influence how results are interpreted.  In this post, we will look closely at how probability assessments (possibilities) can lead to propositions deviating from the reality ensuing when coin flips are actually carried out.  We will consider the concept of ‘alternate universes’.  Who would have guessed that flipping a coin three times would go there?

Mortgage Debt and Inflation: Part 4

October 22, 2023Posted inmacroeconomicsNo Comments

Note:  A major addition was added to the conclusion at 1:43 a.m. EDT on October 23, 2023.

This article concludes the analysis of the correlation patterns between Mortgage Debt and Consumer Inflation (CPI).  The last of the three types of inflation patterns (time periods with no significant inflation trends) is the subject of analysis here.  The other two types of patterns (inflation surges1 and disinflation/deflation surges2) were analyzed previously.  The conclusion discusses the correlation patterns for all time periods, looks for any common threads, and identifies important differences across time periods and types of correlation patterns.


From a photo by The Agent on Unsplash.

Mortgage Debt and Inflation: Part 3

October 15, 2023Posted inmacroeconomicsNo Comments

The full data sets for the 71 years from 1952 to 2022 show no discernable association patterns (correlations) for Mortgage Debt growth and inflation changes.1  Thus, we started an analysis by looking specifically at the various regimes of inflation change during the 71-year timeline.  The most recent post2 analyzed the eight time periods over 71 years with positive inflation surges.  This article analyzes the five periods between 1952 and 2019 with negative inflation (disinflation/deflation) surges.


From an image by Harry Strauss from Pixabay.

Consumer Credit and Inflation: Part 4

September 23, 2023Posted inmacroeconomicsNo Comments

This article concludes the analysis of the correlation patterns between Household and Nonprofit Organization Credit (HNO) and Consumer Inflation (CPI).  The last of the three types of inflation patterns (time periods with no significant inflation trends) is the subject of analysis here.  The other two types of patterns (inflation surges1 and disinflation/deflation surges2) were analyzed previously.  The conclusion discusses the correlation patterns for all time periods, looks for any common threads, and identifies important differences across time periods and types of correlation patterns.


From a photo by Stephen Phillips – Hostreviews.co.uk, on Unsplash.