Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:
The Producer Price Index for final demand rose 0.9% for the 12 months ended January 2024. For the 12 months ended January 2024, prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services increased 2.6%. Producer-level inflation has stayed in a tight range since October 2024. I am seeing little change in inflation pressures in the short term.
Privately‐owned housing units authorized by building permits in January 2024 were 8.6% above January 2023. Privately‐owned housing starts were 0.7% below January 2023. Privately‐owned housing completions were up 2.8% above January 2023. New housing remains relatively strong.
February 2024 University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment was essentially unchanged from January, rising 0.6 index points this month and solidifying the large gains from the past two months. According to the University of Michigan, the fact that sentiment lost no ground this month suggests that consumers continue to feel more assured about the economy, confirming the considerable improvements in December and January across various aspects of the economy. Consumers continued to express confidence that the slowdown in inflation and strength in labor markets would continue.
Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:
Lithium Price Slump? Exxon Says No Problem
Russia’s Crude Processing Rates Drop in February
U.S. Drillers Pump The Breaks
TC Energy Books Record Earnings amid High Natural Gas Demand
Wind and Solar Growth in China Not Enough to Offset Coal Expansion
Dow slides more than 100 points Friday, major averages end 5-week winning run: Live updates
Mortgage rates shoot to 2-month high after new report shows inflation is still hot
10-year Treasury yield spikes above 4.3% after hot producer prices report
NY Judge Hits Trump With $364 Million Penalty For Alleged Fraud
Dow falls Friday, with S&P 500 at risk of snapping five straight weeks of gains
Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.
On the third Thursday of the month right on schedule NOAA issued their updated Seasonal Outlook which I describe as their Four-Season Outlook because it extends a bit more than one year into the future. The information released also included the Mid-Month Outlook for the following month plus the weather and drought outlook for the next three months. I present the information issued by NOAA and try to add context to it. It is quite a challenge for NOAA to address the subsequent month, the subsequent three-month period as well as the twelve successive three-month periods for a year or a bit more.
With respect to the long-term part of the Outlook which I call the Four-Season Outlook, there is a fairly rapid transition from El Nino to ENSO Neutral to LaNina. So getting the timing right is very challenging.
First, Let’s Take a Look at the (mid-month) Outlook for March.
It will be updated on the last day of February
The top row is what is now called the Mid-Month Outlook for next month which will be updated at the end of this month. There is a temperature map and a precipitation map. The second row is a three-month outlook that includes next month. I think the outlook maps are self-explanatory. What is important to remember is that they show deviations from the current definition of normal which is the period 1991 through 2020. So this is not a forecast of the absolute value of temperature or precipitation but the change from what is defined as normal or to use the technical term “climatology”.
Notice that the Outlook for next month and the three-month Outlook are somewhat different. This tells us that April and May will be different than March to some extent.
The full NOAA Seasonal Outlook extends through March/April/May of 2025. All of these maps are in the body of the article. Large maps are provided for March and the three-month period Mar/Apr/May. Small maps are provided beyond that through May of 2025 with a link to get larger versions of these maps.
NOAA provides an excellent discussion to support the maps. It is included in the body of this article. In some cases, one will need to click on “read more” to read the full article. For those on my email list where I have sent the url of the article, that will not be necessary.
It is difficult to find a more comprehensive Weather Outlook anywhere else with the ability to get a local 10-day Forecast also.
This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.
First the highlights from the NWS.
Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD Fri Feb 16 2024 Valid 12Z Fri Feb 16 2024 – 12Z Sun Feb 18 2024
…Swath of accumulating snow will spread from Midwest today to Mid Atlantic tonight…
…Heavy Rain and mountain snow to impact California this weekend…
…Chilly air sweeps across much of the central and southern parts of the country this weekend..
To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.
Above is a 72 hour animation of the forecast.
Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.
Please click on “Read More” below to access the full report issued today.
Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:
The Philly Fed February 2024 Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey shows manufacturing improved with the current general activity and shipments rose and turned positive. The indicator for new orders also rose but remained negative. I am not a fan of the Philly Fed survey as it has a lot of noise.
The New York Fed’s February 2024 Empire State Manufacturing Survey general business conditions index rose forty-one points but remained negative at -2.4. New orders declined modestly, while shipments edged higher. Unfilled orders continued to shrink, and delivery times continued to shorten.
The January 2024 Industrial Production from the Federal Reserve shows Industrial Production has no growth year-over-year with components manufacturing down 0.9% year-over-year, mining down 1.2% year-over-year, and utilities up 9.0% year-over-year. Manufacturing remains in a recession.
Retail trade sales in January 2024 were up 0.6% above January 2023 – and literally no growth inflation-adjusted. Inflation-adjusted retail sales have essentially not grown over the past year.
In the week ending February 10, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted unemployment initial claims 4-week moving average was 218,500, an increase of 5,750 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 500 from 212,250 to 212,750.
Import prices declined 1.3% year-over-year and export prices declined 2.4% year-over-year. The disinflation of export and import prices can be laid on the general weakness of the global economy.
Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:
U.S. House Passes Reversal Of Biden’s LNG Export Ban
Hot off Nickel Fraud, Trafigura Faces Big Losses in Mongolia Oil
Trump Vows to Block U.S. Steel Acquisition
Buffett’s Berkshire Increases Stake in Chevron and Occidental
BofA: Oil Demand Growth Has Peaked
Banking Giant JP Morgan Exits Climate Action Group
S&P 500 closes at record high, Dow gains 300 points in late-day rally: Live updates
Shake Shack stock surges 20% on fourth-quarter profit, strong 2024 outlook
Crypto venture funding climbs for first time in nearly 2 years after bitcoin’s stellar run
Yield-Curve Bear-Steepening Spells Trouble For Markets
Treasury yields drop for 2nd straight day after weaker-than-expected January retail sales
Oil prices finish higher, back on track for gains for the week
Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.
It is difficult to find a more comprehensive Weather Outlook anywhere else with the ability to get a local 10-day Forecast also.
This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.
First the highlights from the NWS.
Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD Thu Feb 15 2024 Valid 12Z Thu Feb 15 2024 – 12Z Sat Feb 17 2024
…A Pacific storm system pushing into the West Coast will bring locally heavy rain near the coast, and heavy high elevation snowfall into the Intermountain West over the next couple of days…
…Quick-hitting storm system to produce accumulating snowfall across the Great Lakes today and into the Interior Northeast Thursday night and Friday morning…
…Next round of snow expected to quickly spread from the central Plains and Ohio Valley on Friday, then into the Central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic Friday night into Saturday morning…
To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.
Above is a 72 hour animation of the forecast.
Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.
Please click on “Read More” below to access the full report issued today.
Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:
The Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach handle 40% of the USA container traffic – and January 2024 was a good month with imports up 21% year-over-year and exports up 2% year-over-year. The steep improvement in imports strongly suggests the USA economy is stronger than realized.
Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:
New Electrode Revolutionizes Hydrogen Production from Seawater
Canadian NDP Calls for Ban on Coal Exports
Skyrocketing Battery Mineral Demand Set to Outpace Supply By 2023
Oil Prices Steady as Middle East Conflict Intensifies on Lebanese Border
Product Draws Not Enough to Offset Huge Crude Build
Dow closes more than 100 points higher as stocks recoup some losses following big sell-off: Live updates
Mortgage rates surge higher again, causing homebuyers to pull back
Lyft CEO takes blame for ‘extra zero that slipped into’ earnings release
Uber stock pops more than 10% on $7 billion share buyback
Bitcoin briefly crosses $52,000 as it recaptures $1 trillion market cap: CNBC Crypto World
Economists Are Sounding Alarm On ‘YOLO’ Credit Bubble
MGM’s hotels charged $1,000 a night on average for the Super Bowl, but the stock suffers a hangover
Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.
I can’t show you the photos since they are so valuable that they remain under copywrite protection due to a series of laws that have extended the copywrite provisions (wouldn’t you know how that works LOL) but you may be able to see great photos HERE or HERE. I have exceeded my limit of free reads.
The struggle by the FBI to come to grips with what happened is documented HERE and HERE. Let’s just say that the FBI had a great deal of difficulty with this case and the direct participants were not brought to justice but the possible leader Al Capone showed above was never charged let alone convicted of this crime. He had created a perfect alibi. But the FBI got him for tax evasion.
Why am I telling you this story today? Certainly, it is appropriate to discuss what happened on Saint Valentine’s Day in the past and this day has a lot of history including in the distant past a celebration of Christian Martyrs and later a celebration of love due to a poem by Chaucer.
But today I am using this occasion to remember the Mob Killing in Chicago and another Massacre or near Massacre in the state where I live which is New Mexico. More importantly, the chances of what happened here in New Mexico happening again seem to me to be substantial. Accidents can happen at LANL, the WIPP facility southeast of Carlsbad Caverns in New Mexico or somewhere along the route from Los Alamos National Labs (LANL) to WIPP (Waste Isolation Pilot Plant – which appears to be planned now as the sole storage facility in the U.S) or somewhere on the route from LANL to Savannah and Savannah back to WIPP which is a long trip with many opportunities for the radioactive materials being conveyed to have an accident or be stolen by saboteurs.
It is a complicated topic but today we will mostly talk about the accident on February 14, 2014 at the WIPP facility southeast of Carlsbad Caverns National Park. You can learn more about WIPP HERE.
Let us now talk about this other Saint Valentine’s Day massacre or an accident that was almost a massacre (we do not really know the full impact on those involved) and one that likely will be repeated. Most of these images were provided to me by Cynthia Weehler. They are based on U.S. Government Documents so they should be considered accurate.
On February 14, 2014, radioactive materials leaked from a damaged storage drum. Analysis of accidents at the WIPP, by DOE, have shown lack of a “safety culture” at the facility.[19]
On February 5, 2014 at around 11:00 a.m., a salt haul truck caught fire, prompting an evacuation of the underground facility.[20] Six workers were taken to a local hospital with smoke inhalation and were released by the next day. Lab tests after the fire confirmed that there was zero release of radiological material during, or as a result of, the fire.[21] Underground air-monitoring equipment was out of commission after the truck fire.[22]
On February 15, 2014, authorities ordered workers to shelter in place at the facility after air monitors had detected unusually high radiation levels at 11:30 p.m. the previous day. None of the facility’s 139 workers were underground at the time of the incident.[23][24] Later, trace amounts of airborne radiation consisting of americium and plutonium particles were discovered above ground, 0.5 mi (0.80 km) from the facility.[23] In total, 22 workers were exposed to radioactive contaminants equaling that of a standard chest x-ray.[25] The Carlsbad Current-Argus wrote: “the radiation leak occurred on the evening of February 14, according to new information made public at a news conference [on February 20]. Joe Franco, manager of the DOE Carlsbad Field Office, said an underground air monitor detected high levels of alpha and beta radiation activity consistent [sic] the waste buried at WIPP.”[26] Regarding the elevated levels of plutonium and americium detected outside the nuclear waste repository, Ryan Flynn, New Mexico Environment Secretary stated during a news conference: “Events like this simply should never occur. From the state’s perspective, one event is far too many.”[27]
On February 26, 2014, the DOE announced that 13 WIPP above-ground workers had tested positive for exposure to radioactive material. Other employees were in the process of being tested. On Thursday, February 27, DOE announced that it sent out “a letter to tell people in two counties what they do know so far. Officials said it is too early to know what that means for the workers’ health.”[28] Additional testing would be done on employees who were working at the site the day after the leak. Above ground, 182 employees continued to work. A February 27 update included comments on plans to discover what occurred below ground first by using unmanned probes and then people.[29][30]
The Southwest Research and Information Center released a report on April 15, 2014[31] that one or more of 258 contact-handled radioactive waste containers located in room 7, panel 7 of the underground repository released radioactive and toxic chemicals.[32] The location of the leak was estimated to be approximately 1,500 feet (460 m) from the air monitor that triggered the contaminants in the filtration system. The contaminants were spread through more than 3,000 feet (910 m) of tunnels, leading to the 2,150-foot (660 m) exhaust shaft into the surrounding above-ground environment. Air-monitoring station #107, located 0.5 miles (0.8 km) away, detected the radiotoxins. The filter from station #107 was analyzed by the Carlsbad Environmental Monitoring and Research Center (CEMRC) and found to contain 0.64 becquerels (Bq) per cubic meter of air of americium-241 and 0.014 Bq of plutonium-239 and plutonium-240 per cubic meter of air (equivalent to 0.64 and 0.014 radioactive decay events per second per cubic meter of air).[33] The DOE agreed that there was a release of radioactivity from the repository and confirmed that “The event took place starting at 14 February 2014 at 23:14 and continued to 15 February 2014 14:45.”[34] The DOE also confirmed that “A large shift in wind direction can be seen to occur around 8:30 AM on 2/15/14.”[35][36] The EPA reported on the radiological release on their WIPP News page.[37]
After analysis by CEMRC, the station A filter was found on February 15, 2014 to be contaminated with 4,335.71 Bq of Am-241 per every 35 cubic feet (1 m3), and 671.61 Bq of plutonium-239 and plutonium-240 per every 35 cubic feet (1 m3).[38] Bob Alvarez, former DOE official, stated that the long-term ramifications of the WIPP issue are grounded in the fact that the DOE has 66,000 m3 (2,300,000 cu ft) of transuranic waste that has not been disposed of due to the fact that there are no long-term disposition plans for transuranic waste, including 5 tons of plutonium that are in-situ at the Savannah River Site, as well as water from the Hanford Nuclear Reservation in Washington State.[39] In an article in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Alvarez wrote that “Wastes containing plutonium blew through the WIPP ventilation system, traveling 2,150 feet to the surface, contaminating at least 17 workers, and spreading small amounts of radioactive material into the environment.”[40] The URS Corporation, who oversees WIPP, removed and demoted the contracted manager of the repository. Alvarez ponders the notion of “contract handling” of radioactive waste because it deploys conventional processing practices that do not take into consideration the tens of thousands of containers buried before 1970 at several Department of Energy sites. Alvarez states that the quantity of this pre-1970 plutonium waste is 1,300 times more than the amount permitted to “leak” into the environment at WIPP; however, much of this waste is simply buried a few feet underground at DOE sites.[41]
The source of contamination was later found to be a barrel that exploded on February 14 because contractors at Los Alamos National Laboratory packed it with organiccat litter instead of clay cat litter. Other barrels with the same problem were then sealed in larger containers.[42] Anthropologist Vincent Ialenti has examined the political, social, and financial triggers to this organic kitty litter error in detail, linking it to the accelerated pace of the Department of Energy’s and State of New Mexico’s 3706 nuclear waste cleanup campaign, which ran from 2011 to 2014. Ialenti’s study was published in The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists in July 2018.[43]
The 2014 incidents raised the question of whether or not WIPP would be a safe replacement for the Yucca Mountain nuclear waste repository in Nevada, as a destination for all waste generated at U.S. commercial nuclear power plants.[5] The cost of the 2014 accident was expected to exceed $2 billion and disrupted other programs in various nuclear industry sites.[44] On January 9, 2017, the plant was formally reopened after three years of cleanup costing $500 million, which is significantly less than forecasted.[45] On April 10, the plant received its first shipment of waste since reopening.46]
Readers who found this article on the EconCurrents.com website may have to click “Read More” to read the rest of the article. Please do that as this is very important. If you have received a link to the article it will not be necessary to click “Read More”.
It is difficult to find a more comprehensive Weather Outlook anywhere else with the ability to get a local 10-day Forecast also.
This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.
First the highlights from the NWS.
Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD Wed Feb 14 2024 Valid 12Z Wed Feb 14 2024 – 12Z Fri Feb 16 2024
…Quick-hitting wave of low pressure will bring a round of heavy, accumulating snowfall across the Northern Plains, Upper Midwest, and the Great Lakes today and Thursday…
…Next Pacific storm system will bring locally heavy rain along the West Coast and heavy high elevation snowfall into the Intermountain West over the next couple of days…
Above is a 72 hour animation of the forecast.
Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.
Please click on “Read More” below to access the full report issued today.
Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in January 2024 increased 3.1% year-over-year – down from 3.3% in December 2023 but unchanged from 3.1% in November 2023. The all items less food and energy index rose 3.9% over the last 12 months, the same increase as for the 12 months ending December. The Federal Reserve uses the PCE inflation index to monitor inflation which the January data will be released at the end of February – and most likely it will be little changed. The market reaction to this release is surprising as I have been saying that inflation pressures are increasing – and the market mistakingly believed inflation has gone away.
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index decreased two points in January 2024 to 89.9, marking the 25th consecutive month below the 50-year average of 98. The net percent of owners who expect real sales to be higher declined 12 points from December to a net negative 16% (seasonally adjusted), a very negative shift in expectations. NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg stated:
Small business owners continue to make appropriate business adjustments in response to the ongoing economic challenges they’re facing. In January, optimism among small business owners dropped as inflation remains a key obstacle on Main Street.
Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:
Why Are China’s Solar Panels So Cheap?
Bearish Market Conditions Persist for Stainless Steel
Oil Steady As Inflation Comes In Hotter Than Expected
Mining Billionaire Slams Carbon Capture as ‘Falsehood’
ETF Frenzy Pushes Bitcoin to Highest Levels Since 2021
Diamondback Energy’s $26 Billion Endeavor Acquisition Shakes Up Permian Basin
OPEC Sees Strong Long-Term Oil Demand
Dow tumbles 500 points, posts worst day since March 2023 after hot inflation report: Live updates
Here’s the inflation breakdown for January 2024 — in one chart
Here’s what bitcoin’s chart says about its next moves after it breached $50,000 this week
Prices rose more than expected in January as inflation won’t go away
This stock-market predictor with a great record is even more bullish now than it was last year
Treasury yields end at highest levels since at least December after hotter-than-expected CPI inflation report
Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.
It is difficult to find a more comprehensive Weather Outlook anywhere else with the ability to get a local 10-day Forecast also.
This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.
First the highlights from the NWS.
Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD Tue Feb 13 2024 Valid 12Z Tue Feb 13 2024 – 12Z Thu Feb 15 2024
…Strong nor’easter to impact portions of the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England today with areas of heavy snow, strong winds, and coastal flooding…
…New storm system to arrive across the Northwest over the next couple of days which will bring locally heavy rain and mountain snowfall…
Above is a 72 hour animation of the forecast.
Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.
Please click on “Read More” below to access the full report issued today.
