Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Thu Apr 11 2024
Valid 12Z Thu Apr 11 2024 – 12Z Sat Apr 13 2024

…Powerful storm system to foster high wind potential over much of the
eastern U.S. today with severe weather, heavy rain and flash flood threats
for parts of the Southeast, upper Ohio Valley and into the northern
Mid-Atlantic…

…High wind threat continues across the Great Lakes, Northeast, and into
the Appalachians on Friday into early Saturday as flash flood threat will
be confined to northern New England…

An intensifying low pressure system centered over the Mid-South early this
morning is forecast to track northeast toward the Great Lakes through
tonight. This system will progressively engulf the entire eastern U.S.
today with widespread moderate rainfall and a couple axes of heavy rain.
The heaviest rains will be associated with clusters of strong to severe
thunderstorms across the Southeast ahead of a potent cold front where a
few inches of rain can be expected. Another area of heavy rain will be
near and along the track of the intense low pressure system center, from
the Mid-Mississippi Valley across the Ohio Valley toward the lower Great
Lakes where 2 inches of rain can be expected. The intensity and size of
the system will bring the threat of high winds into much of the eastern
U.S. including the Great Lakes, Midwest and the Ohio Valley through the
next couple of days. The southern portion of the potent cold front is
forecast to move off the Southeast U.S. this evening, bringing the heavy
rain and thunderstorms out into the Atlantic. The front will take extra
time to pass through Florida, where a line of strong to severe
thunderstorms is forecast to pass through the peninsula today into tonight.
Meanwhile, warm and moist air from the Atlantic will surge up the Eastern
Seaboard tonight with widespread moderate to locally heavy rain under very
strong and gusty south-southeasterly winds.

Friday will likely see the moderate to heavy rain and high winds impacting
the Great Lakes and the entire Northeast as the Mid-Atlantic clears out
from the rain. The center of the low pressure system should begin exiting
the Great Lakes into southern Canada early on Friday. However, the size
and intensity of the storm will keep the high winds and heavy rain threat
into Saturday morning from the lower Great Lakes to the Northeast with
flash flooding threat to be confined across northern New England.

Outside of the big storm in the eastern U.S., the weather will be
relatively quiet across the Southwest and through the mid-section of the
country under the influence of a high pressure system. The West Coast
will see somewhat more active weather dropping in from north to south
through the next couple of days as a compact but energetic upper low that
originated from the Arctic Ocean dips south and approaches California by
Saturday morning. Mainly light to locally moderate precipitation can be
expected to reach coastal Pacific Northwest today, reaching into northern
California on Friday before sliding south into central California by
Saturday morning. Some of the precipitation will spill into the interior
section of the Northeast by Friday and continue into Saturday morning.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 AM EDT Wed Apr 10 2024

Valid 12Z Wed Apr 10 2024 – 12Z Fri Apr 12 2024

…Heavy rain, flash flooding and severe weather threat associated with an
intensifying low pressure system will sweep across the Arklatex region
today, reaching into the interior South tonight…

…The low pressure system will bring an expanding heavy rain and high
wind threat into much of the eastern U.S. on Thursday with severe weather
threat across the Southeast and upper Ohio Valley…

…High winds along with widespread moderate to heavy rain expected to
impact the entire Eastern Seaboard into the Great Lakes Thursday night
into Friday morning…

A low pressure system is currently consolidating over southern Texas as a
dynamic upper-level trough is getting ready to move off northern Mexico
and then vigorously interact with moisture returning from the Gulf of
Mexico. The clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms that have already
formed and impacted the western Gulf states are just a precursor of what
the system may produce later today when it is forecast to intensify
rapidly with thunderstorms erupting over the Arklatex region. These
thunderstorms are expected to contain very heavy rain, hail, high winds,
and the possibility of tornadoes across the interior South through tonight
as a potent cold front is forecast to sweep across from west to east. The
low pressure system itself is forecast to intensify, expand and track
toward the northeast for the next couple of days, with moderate to heavy
rainfall engulfing much of the eastern U.S. by Thursday. The heaviest
rainfall is expected to impact the central to eastern Gulf coast region
today through Thursday morning, with another heavy rain axis from the
Arklatex region to the Midwest following the center of the intensifying
low pressure system. The low pressure system is forecast to intensify and
expand further Thursday night into Friday morning, bringing high winds
into much of the eastern U.S. as well as the Great Lakes, Midwest and the
Ohio Valley. Thunderstorms should exit the Southeast by Friday morning as
the cold front moves off the coast. However, the Mid-Atlantic and
virtually the entire Northeast will likely be engulfed by moderate to
heavy rain along with high winds especially just ahead of the potent cold
front trailing south from the center of the intense and expanding low
pressure system.

Outside of the intensifying low pressure system, relatively quiet weather
is expected for the next couple of days with a stable upper ridging
building into the western U.S. Scattered rain and snow showers are
expected to fall across the northern Rockies and northern High Plains
today before reaching into the northern Plains as a clipper system swings
across these areas. Light precipitation is forecast to reach the Pacific
Northwest Thursday night with the arrival of the next Pacific system.
Otherwise, improvement in the fire weather threat is expected across the
southern High Plains where elevated fire danger is confined to the Texas
Big Bend today, followed by portions of the central Plains on Thursday.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Tue Apr 09 2024
Valid 12Z Tue Apr 09 2024 – 12Z Thu Apr 11 2024

…Heavy rain, flash flooding and severe weather threat will expand across
the Southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley through Wednesday,
reaching into Midwest, Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and the Southeast by
Thursday morning…

…Critical fire danger shifts into Texas Big Bend and Rio Grande Valley…

Following the 2024 Great American Eclipse, a developing low pressure
system over the southern Plains will become the main weather story for the
next couple of days. A vigorous upper-level trough exiting the southern
Rockies/ northern Mexico will continue to interact with moisture returning
from the Gulf of Mexico to deliver sprawling areas of heavy rain and
embedded severe thunderstorms first across eastern Texas into the Arklatex
region today, before expanding into the Texas Panhandle tonight. The
dynamic interaction will then consolidate and intensify a low pressure
system gradually over eastern Texas tonight, before taking the system more
rapidly northeastward across the Arklatex region on Wednesday. It appears
that a potent cold front trailing south from the low center will be the
focus for strong to severe thunderstorms across eastern Texas Wednesday
morning, through the lower Mississippi Valley on Wednesday, before
reaching into the eastern Gulf states and the Florida Panhandle by early
on Thursday. Less of a severe weather threat is forecast for areas north
of the low pressure center track. Meanwhile, heavy rain could lead to
flooding concerns from the Texas Panhandle tonight, with the highest
threat across the Mid-South through Wednesday, before spreading into the
Midwest and lower Great Lakes early on Thursday. Winds will become
increasingly strong and gusty as the low pressure system becomes quite
strong by Thursday morning.

Outside of the intensifying low pressure system, relatively quiet weather
is expected for the next couple of days. The cloud cover and areas of rain
across the northern Plains into the upper Great Lakes are forecast to
taper off tonight as an old cyclone continues to fill and departs into
southern Canada. Scattered showers will then reach into the lower Great
Lakes Tuesday night, and continue to spread into New England Wednesday
night. The Pacific Northwest will see the arrival of a frontal zone with
some moisture and high elevation light snows into the northern Cascades
and eventually Rockies Tuesday before drying out on Wednesday. A warming
trend is in store for the West and East Coast, as well as the northern
tier states while cooler than normal temperatures will linger across the
South behind the intensifying low pressure system.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Mon Apr 08 2024
Valid 12Z Mon Apr 08 2024 – 12Z Wed Apr 10 2024

…Northern New England remains the best location for clear viewing of the
total solar eclipse this afternoon…

…Lingering wet snow across the Northern Plains expected to taper off
later today while locally moderate rain moves across the Upper Midwest…

…Heavy rain, flash flooding and severe weather threat emerging across
the Southern Plains to the lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday…

…Critical fire danger shifts southward into western Texas by Tuesday…

As the long-anticipated total solar eclipse scheduled to take place this
afternoon, the weather pattern across the U.S. is entering a transition
period from one that consists of a winter storm across the North to heavy
rain and severe thunderstorms across the South. The low pressure system
that has brought snow, high winds, and severe weather to various locations
across the northern and central U.S. will continue to weaken and track
northeast across the upper Midwest today, and then move into southern
Canada on Tuesday. Lingering wet snow across the Northern Plains is
expected to taper off later today while locally moderate rain moves across
the Upper Midwest.

Monday morning will feature showers and embedded thunderstorms across the
Great Lakes down into the Ohio Valley, Tennessee Valley and the lower
Mississippi Valley well in advance of the low pressure system and near the
trailing cold front. Meanwhile, moisture from the Gulf of Mexico is
beginning to return to the western Gulf states. Southern Texas will
likely wake up to fair conditions this morning but will likely followed by
a rapid untimely increase of clouds this morning into the afternoon prior
to the arrival of the solar eclipse. In contrast, northern New England
remains to be the region where cloud cover will likely be minimized along
the path of totality this afternoon as the nor’easter moves farther out
into the Atlantic. It appears that other locations in between will have a
fair chance of cloud covers at various levels, although locations across
the Midwest could see breaks in the clouds or high thin clouds during the
time of totality.

Monday night into Tuesday will likely see the threat of heavy rain
blossoming across the South from eastern Texas/eastern Oklahoma expanding
eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley in response to a potent upper
trough approaching from the southern Rockies that will interact with the
influx of Gulf moisture. A few inches of rain will likely be common from
northern Louisiana into southern Arkansas through Wednesday morning with
this setup. In addition, severe thunderstorms are also expected to
develop within the heavy rain area from Tuesday morning onward into
Wednesday morning when a low pressure system is forecast to develop over
Texas. The heaviest rains and severe storms should begin to head farther
east by Wednesday morning into the Mid-South as the low pressure system
intensifies and tracks toward the east-northeast.

Meanwhile, moisture from the next Pacific system is forecast to bring the
next round of precipitation into the Pacific Northwest by later today and
spread into the northern Rockies on Tuesday. Much of the Southwest into
the Four Corners will remain dry with some gusty winds as a dry cold front
passes through. As for fire weather, it appears that the area of Critical
Risk of Fire Weather will be confined to western Texas per the Storm
Prediction center.

Forecast high temperatures will tend to be at or above average and mild to
warm over much of the central/eastern U.S. today ahead of the system over
the Midwest/Plains. The greatest anomalies will be in the lower Great
Lakes vicinity, where temperatures into the 60s and 70s are upwards of
15-20 degrees above normal. The frontal boundary sagging southward and
increasing coverage of precipitation chances will bring cooler
temperatures from the Tennessee Valley west through the ArkLaTex and into
portions of the Southern Plains/Rockies Tuesday. Temperatures are forecast
to warm up by 10-15 degrees over the Northern Plains Tuesday following one
more chilly day on Monday. An expanding area of warm, above average
temperatures will spread inland from California into the Great Basin
Tuesday as an upper-level ridge builds in.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sun Apr 07 2024
Valid 12Z Sun Apr 07 2024 – 12Z Tue Apr 09 2024

…Wet snow and high winds across the northern High Plains today are
expected to gradually become less intense by tonight…

…Mixed rain and wet snow spread east across the northern Plains into
tonight as showers and thunderstorms move across the Midwest, Mid-South,
Great Lakes toward the central Appalachians Monday morning…

…Threat of heavy rain quickly emerges across the western Gulf states
later on Monday and then expands further into the Mid-South by Tuesday
morning…

…Critical to Extreme Fire Weather Risk continues over portions of the
central/southern High Plains today with improvements on Monday…

An intense low pressure system, likely reaching peak intensity early this
Sunday morning, has continued to impact much of the High Plains and nearby
Rockies with winds locally gusting over hurricane force. The cold air
mass behind this intense storm is supporting wet snow across the northern
High Plains into the northern Rockies. The combination of wet snow in the
midst of the high winds has resulted in blizzard conditions locally over
western Nebraska. Meanwhile, plenty of warm air is wrapping around the
eastern side of the storm with bands of showers and thunderstorms sweeping
through the northern and central Plains. The intense storm is expected to
gradually weaken today as it moves generally toward the upper Midwest.
Mixed rain and wet snow are expected across the northern Plains by tonight
as showers and embedded thunderstorms move into the Great Lakes and down
the Mississippi Valley by early on Monday. The rain/snow over the
northern Plains is expected to taper off by Monday night when the low
pressure system weakens further and heads toward southern Canada by
Tuesday morning.

Meanwhile, the huge circulation associated with the weakening nor’easter
has been slow to exit New England, with some wet snow and rain still
affecting Maine and the Cape Cod area early Sunday morning. The
precipitation is expected to taper off this morning as the huge storm
begins to move out into the Atlantic. Colder air wrapping around the huge
storm will lead to below freezing temperatures as far south as the
southern Appalachians early this morning before the April sun and the
arrival warm air from the intense storm over the Plains send temperatures
well up into the 60s to near 70 by this afternoon.

For the total solar eclipse that is scheduled to take place on Monday, it
appears that southern Texas will wake up to considerable clouds Monday
morning with a resurgence of warm and moist air from the Gulf of Mexico.
In contrast, New England will likely wake up to clearing skies with cold
temperatures into the 20s Monday morning under a fresh snow cover from the
recent nor’easter. There will probably be some breaks in the clouds from
northern Arkansas to central Ohio behind a front, and mostly cloudy
farther northeast from eastern Ohio to western portions of New York.

Beginning late on Monday into Tuesday, a threat of heavy rain will quickly
emerge across the western Gulf states and then expands further into the
Mid-South in response to a return of Gulf moisture which will then
interact with an upper trough arriving from the southern Rockies. In
contrast, very dry conditions combined with strong downslope winds from
the Rockies will keep fire danger at critical to locally extreme levels
across the central to southern High Plains with some improvements on
Monday. Meanwhile, moisture from the next Pacific system is forecast to
bring the next round of precipitation into the Pacific Northwest by later
on Monday into Tuesday.