Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 60 points or 0.16%,
• Nasdaq closed down 0.36%,
• S&P 500 closed down 0.07%,
• Gold $2,018 up $0.60,
• WTI crude oil settled at $78 up $0.81,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.143% up 0.011 points,
• USD index $103.45 down $0.12,
• Bitcoin $41,933 up $2,241 (5.65%),
• Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. +1 to 621 Canada +7 to 230

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – January 2024 Economic Forecast: Our Index Turns Slightly Negative

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

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• Shell To Convert German Refinery To Base Oil Manufacturing
• US Oil, Gas Drillers Add 1 More Rig As Production Plummets
• China’s Record Solar Additions in 2023 Top Entire U.S. Solar Capacity
• Strong Economic Data Boosts Bullish Sentiment in Oil Markets
• Rising Electricity Demand Will Keep Fossil Fuels Around
• What to Expect From Big Oil This Earnings Season
• Tech layoffs balloon in January as Wall Street rally lifts Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft to records
• Fed’s favorite inflation gauge rose 0.2% in December and was up 2.9% from a year ago
• Wall Street is barreling toward a big week ahead with megacap earnings, Fed meeting in focus
• Crypto prices effort a comeback as bitcoin soars 5% to close out the week: CNBC Crypto World
• Here are some important items for taxpayers to consider before filing their 2023 tax return
• Long-term Treasury yields end higher for 2nd straight week despite mild PCE inflation data

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Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 243 points or 0.64%,
• Nasdaq closed up 0.18%,
• S&P 500 closed up 0.53%,
• Gold $2,018 up $2.00,
• WTI crude oil settled at $77 up $2.18,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.126% down 0.052 points,
• USD index $103.54 up $0.30,
• Bitcoin $39,686 up $46 (0.12%),

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – January 2024 Economic Forecast: Our Index Turns Slightly Negative

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The CoreLogic Loan Performance Insights report on mortgage performance analysis through November 2023 shows 2.9% of mortgages were delinquent by at least 30 days or more including those in foreclosure. Molly Boesel, Principal Economist for CoreLogic stated:

U.S. job growth continued at a steady pace in the final quarter of 2023, and the unemployment rate ended the year just slightly higher than its 50-year low. The robust labor market is contributing to small mortgage delinquency numbers, with the overall delinquency rate remaining low and the serious delinquency rate at a record low. Mortgage performance should remain strong in 2024, as the job market is expected to remain healthy.

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased 3.1% year-over-year for the advance estimate in fourth quarter of 2023. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 2.9% year-over-year. This GDP growth was stronger than expected with the consumer accounting for 58% of this GDP growth. For me, the surprise was the GDP implicit price indicator falling to 2.6% growth year-over-year which is just a touch over the Fed’s 2.0% inflation target.

New orders for manufactured durable goods in December 2023 was up 4.8% year-over-year – -0.8% inflation-adjusted. There was little change in dollar values from the previous month.

Sales of new single‐family houses in December 2023 4.4% pver December 2022. The median sales price of new houses sold in December 2023 was $413,200. The seasonally‐adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of December was 453,000. This represents a supply of 8.2 months at the current sales rate. Even with the large backlog of homes for sale, new home sales is an economic bright spot.

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)  three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, moved down to –0.28 in December from –0.24 in November. The CFNAI is the most consistent of all coincident indicators. Periods of economic expansion have historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above –0.70 (red line on the graph below). However, this value is below zero which means the economy is expanding below the average rate of growth.

In the week ending January 20, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims 4-week moving average was 202,250, a decrease of 1,500 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 500 from 203,250 to 203,750.

The Kansas City Fed manufacturing index declined moderately with the month-over-month composite index of -9 in January 2024, down from -1 in December and -2 in November. Manufacturing continues in a recession in the U.S.

 

• U.S. Drivers Waiting For Lower Gasoline Prices Instead Told To “Buckle Up”
• High Energy Prices Weigh On European Steelmakers
• The U.S. Finally Started to Crack Down on Crypto in 2023
• Red Sea Disruptions Force Saudi Aramco to Slash Prices
• India Sees Fuel Demand Rising by 2.7% in 2024-2025 Fiscal Year
• Tesla shares close down 12% for worst day since 2020 after automaker warns of slowdown
• S&P 500 closes higher for a sixth day, powered by strong GDP data: Live updates
• This is what was behind the bitcoin sell-off and why JPMorgan thinks it could be ending
• The U.S. economy grew at blistering 3.3% pace in Q4 while inflation pulled back
• The US Has The Biggest Govt In The History Of The World… By A Very Wide Margin
• 2-year Treasury yield ends at lowest in a week despite surprisingly strong GDP report

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Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 99 points or 0.26%,
• Nasdaq closed up 0.36%,
• S&P 500 closed up 0.08%,
• Gold $2,013 down $12.90,
• WTI crude oil settled at $75 up $0.97,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.180% up 0.038 points,
• USD index $103.31 down $0.31,
• Bitcoin $39,520 up $514 (1.32%),

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – January 2024 Economic Forecast: Our Index Turns Slightly Negative

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The Survey of Business Uncertainty continues to show a deterioration in sales revenue growth.

• IEA To Expedite 2025 Oil Demand Forecast in OPEC Competition
• Toyota Chairman Questions EV Market Future
• Increased U.S. Natural Gas Production Driving Emissions Reduction
• Russia Builds Out Arctic Oil Route As Middle East Tensions Escalate
• Oil Ticks Higher on Significant Inventory Draw
• Russia Says New Discoveries Fully Replaced Its Oil and Gas Reserves in 2023
• Japan’s LNG Imports Drop to 14-Year Low
• Nasdaq, S&P 500 close higher for fifth straight day as Netflix shares surge: Live updates
• Amazon’s Ring will stop allowing police to request doorbell video footage from users
• Thursday’s GDP report expected to show the U.S. economy at a crossroads
• Bitcoin wrestles with $40,000 as it tries to recover recent losses: CNBC Crypto World
• Treasury yields end at highest levels in at least 6 weeks after PMI data

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Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 96 points or 0.25%,
• Nasdaq closed up 0.43%,
• S&P 500 closed up 0.29%,
• Gold $2,030 up $7.50,
• WTI crude oil settled at $75 down $0.22,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.138% up 0.044 points,
• USD index $103.57 up $0.24,
• Bitcoin $39,149 down $852 (2.13%),

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – January 2024 Economic Forecast: Our Index Turns Slightly Negative

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Richmond Fed Manufacturing activity remained sluggish in January 2023. The composite manufacturing index decreased from −11 in December to −15 in January. Of its three component indexes, shipments edged up from −17 to −15, new orders edged down from −14 to −16, and employment fell notably, from −1 to −15. Manufacturing remains in a recession.

The union membership rate—the percent of wage and salary workers who were members of unions—was 10.0 percent in 2023, little changed from the previous year. The number of wage and salary workers belonging to unions, at 14.4 million, also showed little movement over the year. In 1983, the first year for which comparable data are available, the union membership rate was 20.1 percent and there were 17.7 million union workers.

• China’s Plunge Protection Team Mulls Trillion Yuan Bailout
• China’s Surge in EV Exports to Europe Sparks Aluminum Industry Concerns
• Oil Prices Slip as Oversupply Concerns Trump Middle East Tensions
• Denser Texas Crude Leads U.S. Oil Production Growth
• Halliburton Tops Q4 Earnings Estimates and Raises Dividend
• Dow closes nearly 100 points lower to snap 3-day win streak, dragged down by weak earnings: Live updates
• Core Scientific returns to Nasdaq as Wall Street shows renewed love for bitcoin mining
• Bitcoin briefly falls below $39,000 as post-ETF selling pressure continues: CNBC Crypto World
• Netflix’s stock jumps 6% on huge spike in new subscribers, surge in ad sales
• Dow ends lower, S&P 500 closes at third record high this year as earnings season ramps up with Netflix results

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 138 points or 0.36%,
• Nasdaq closed up 0.32%,
• S&P 500 closed up 0.22%,
• Gold $2,022 down $7.20,
• WTI crude oil settled at $75 up $1.60,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.103% down 0.043 points,
• USD index $103.33 up $0.05,
• Bitcoin $40,123 down $1,504 (3.61%),

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – January 2024 Economic Forecast: Our Index Turns Slightly Negative

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. fell by 0.1 percent in December 2023 to 103.1 (2016=100), following a 0.5 percent decline in November. The LEI contracted by 2.9 percent over the six-month period between June and December 2023, a smaller decrease than its 4.3 percent contraction over the previous six months. Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board stated:

The US LEI fell slightly in December, continuing to signal underlying weakness in the US economy. Despite the overall decline, six out of ten leading indicators made positive contributions to the LEI in December. Nonetheless, these improvements were more than offset by weak conditions in manufacturing, the high interest-rate environment, and low consumer confidence. As the magnitude of monthly declines has lessened, the LEI’s six-month and twelve-month growth rates have turned upward but remain negative, continuing to signal the risk of recession ahead. Overall, we expect GDP growth to turn negative in Q2 and Q3 of 2024 but begin to recover late in the year.

• Canada’s Uranium Is Fueling the World’s Nuclear Energy Boom
• Gasoline Shipping Day Rates Triple Under Houthi Attack
• The Strategic Implications of Iran’s Recent Missile and Drone Attacks
• WTI Oil Soars Nearly 2.6% as Geopolitics Overtakes Fundamentals
• Copper and Gold: Key Indicators for Predicting Economic Trends
• Russia And Iran Finalize 20-Year Deal That Will Change The Middle East Forever
• Sunoco to Buy NuStar Energy in $7.3 Billion Deal
• Dow rises more than 100 points to close above 38,000 for the first time ever: Live updates
• Spirit Airlines shares extend rebound after it appeals ruling blocking JetBlue merger
• Terraform Labs files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in the U.S.: CNBC Crypto World
• Bitcoin was up 155% in 2023—but should you invest? Here’s what experts say
• Dow closes above 38,000 for first time as S&P 500 scores back-to-back records
• 2- and 10-year Treasury yields slip from 2024 highs as Fed’s blackout period gets under way

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