Colonial America 1776-2030?
On this day of America’s 246th birthday, let’s clearly recognize what America truly is: the last big colonial power, collapsing!
Daily Short-Term and Intermediate Term Weather Forecast – July 3, 2022
This is still an experimental article so it has some problems that need to be worked on especially the tropical section.
Here is what we are paying attention to this afternoon (Saturday) and the next two days from the Saturday afternoon NWS Forecast.:
...Tropical Storm Colin to track from the Southeast/southern Mid-Atlantic Coast today before moving offshore on Sunday... ...Wet weather, isolated Flash Flooding and Severe thunderstorms possible across the Southeast quarter of the nation and from the Central to Northern Plains into the Northern Rockies, Northwest and from portions of the Southwest into the Southern Rockies... ...Areas extending from the West Coast inland through the Great Basin and Northern Rockies will have cooler than average temperature while the Plains into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys and Great Lakes will be warmer than average temperatures... ...Critical fire weather conditions to persist across the Great Basin this weekend..
01July2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Major Indexes Opened Down This Morning, Then Trended Upwards To Close Sharply Higher, Wall Street Markets Closed For Observance Of The Fourth Of July Holiday On Monday
Summary Of the Markets Today:
- The Dow closed up 322 points or 1.05%,
- Nasdaq closed up 0.90%,
- S&P 500 closed up 1.06%,
- WTI crude oil settled at 108, up 1.91%,
- USD $105.15 up 0.39%,
- Gold $1805 down 0.06%,
- Bitcoin $19325 up 2.31% – Session Low 18673,
- 10-year U.S. Treasury 2.889% down 0.085%
- Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. -3 to 750 Canada +12 to 166
Today’s Economic Releases:
Headlines say construction spending declined insignificantly in May 2022 month-over-month. The year-over-year inflation adjusted (red line on chart below) and current dollar numbers (blue line on chart below) both show this sector is in contraction.
The Institute For Supply Management (ISM) says manufacturing grew in June 2022 but declined relative to the previous month.
A summary of headlines we are reading today:
- Oil Should Stay In Triple Digits: Analyst
- U.S. Rig Count Slips
- Walmart is working on a response to the Supreme Court’s abortion decision, the CEO says in memo
- GM’s quarterly sales fall but show improvement from the beginning of year
- Self-driving cars from GM’s Cruise block San Francisco intersection in the latest problem for autonomous vehicles
- Inflation ‘Off’, Recession ‘On’: Stocks Purged As Bonds & The Dollar Surged
- Rail strikes: No rush to call for more action, says union
- Want to enter D-Street now? Read this before you hop on the buy-on-dip bandwagon
- Chip sector looks at 10% drop on week as signs point to declining demand
These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.
NOAA Updates July Outlook – June 30, 2022 – Not Much Change – Some Ocean Indicators are Surprising
Updated at 2:30 am EDT July 2, 2022 to incorporate the Week 3 – 4 Outlook which suggests that the second half of July will not be as cool in the Northwest but perhaps less warm elsewhere and the Monsoon may be less robust but some other areas will be less dry.
At the end of every month, NOAA updates their Mid-Month Outlook for the following month which in this case is July. They also issue a Drought Outlook for the following month and update the three-month Drought Outlook. We are reporting on that tonight. The updated Outlook is very similar to the Mid-Month Outlook. This is surprising since the Mid-Month Outlook was issued two weeks ago and there usually are more changes in that period of time.
For temperature, the shape and location of the large dry anomaly have changed a bit. The cool anomaly in the Northwest is now slightly larger. For precipitation, the area where an above-average Monsoon is forecasted is a little larger and shifted a bit to include more of New Mexico. there is a new small dry anomaly
We provide partial-month Outlooks for the first 22 days of July which allows us to somewhat assess if the Monthly Outlook is consistent with the partial-month Outlooks and it generally is. But we will not be able to answer that question definitively until the Week 3-4 Outlook is issued tomorrow. We will provide an update at that time.
We also provide enough information for readers to understand any changes from the Mid-Month Outlook and we try to figure out why these changes were made. Many of the changes are explained in the NOAA discussion which is included in the article. The partial-month forecasts that we have provided show how NOAA thinks this will play out as the weather pattern evolves during July.
There is also a discussion of the ENSO condition which is ever so slightly different than what NOAA used to develop the Mid-Month Outlook. But there is a fairly strong signal that this La Nina will end in late winter 2022/2023. The impacts on weather may not be noticed until Spring. But that is just the current forecast and can change.
We have also begun our tropical storm coverage. Yes, it is that time of the year. We are also providing special coverage of the Monsoon by providing the links to those daily updates.
30June2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Major Indexes Closed Sharply Down Thursday, Atlanta Fed’s GDP Forecast Recessionary
Summary Of the Markets Today:
- The Dow closed down 254 points or 0.82%,
- Nasdaq closed down 1.33%,
- S&P 500 closed down 0.88%,
- WTI crude oil settled at 105, down 3.44%,
- USD $105.09 down 0.01%,
- Gold $1807 down 0.20%,
- Bitcoin $18891 down 7.05% – Session Low 18853,
- 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.022% down 0.71%
Today’s Economic Releases:
Blame it on inflation – real disposable personal income and outlays for May 2022 declined month-over-month. However, on a year-over-year basis, real disposable personal income declined but real expenditures insignificantly improved.
The four-week moving average for unemployment insurance claims continues to modestly grow.
More potential concerning economic news, the GDPNow model released today estimates real GDP growth in the second quarter of 2022 at -1.0 percent, down from 0.3 percent on June 27. If this comes to pass – this would be the second quarter in a row with negative growth and a significant recession flag.
A summary of headlines we are reading today:
- Supreme Court Kills Climate Rules
- Former Apple, J.C. Penney exec Ron Johnson’s Enjoy Technology files for bankruptcy months after it went public
- Spirit delays shareholder vote on merger hours before meeting to continue deal talks with Frontier, JetBlue
- Winning ticket for Powerball’s $366.7 million jackpot sold in Vermont. Here’s the tax bite for the winner
- First-Half FUBAR: Stocks Worst In 60 Years, Bonds & Bitcoin Worst Ever
- Two million more people paying higher rate tax
- Distributed Ledger: Bitcoin to record the worst first half of a year in history. Here’s what to watch in crypto for the second half.
These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.
From Subsidiarity to Solidarity and Sustainability
In a previous post we saw how Concordian economics offers a paradigm through which we can, not only talk of the importance of the Principle of Subsidiarity, but even automatically implement the important recommendations advocated by this principle.
Here we will see how Concordian economics automatically implements the content of two more principles that are an important outgrowth of Subsidiarity: Solidarity and Sustainability.
29June2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street See-Sawed Across The Unchanged Line Throughout Today’s Session Finally Closing Mixed In Volatile Trading
Summary Of the Markets Today:
- The Dow closed up 82 points or 0.27%,
- Nasdaq closed down 0.03%,
- S&P 500 closed down 0.07%,
- WTI crude oil settled at 109, down 2.33%,
- USD $105.09 up 0.58%,
- Gold $1819 flat 0.00%,
- Bitcoin $20341 up 0.57% – Session Low 19889,
- 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.097% down 0.11%
Today’s Economic Releases:
Views on the economy among CFOs have worsened for 2022, according to the latest results of The CFO Survey, a collaboration of Duke University’s Fuqua School of Business and the Federal Reserve Banks of Richmond and Atlanta.
The third estimate of 1Q2022 Real GDP was -1.6% (quarter-over-quarter) – down from the second estimates -1.5%. Still, year-over-year Real GDP growth was 3.5% over 1Q2021 – down from 4Q2021’s 5.5%.
A summary of headlines we are reading today:
- Oil Likely To Hit $200: SEB Group
- Investors Dump Copper As Demand Stumbles
- Fight for Spirit Airlines goes down to the wire with competing bids from Frontier and JetBlue
- Bed Bath & Beyond replaces CEO as retailer’s sales plummet
- Mortgage demand stalls again, even as interest rates swing briefly lower
- Bonds & The Dollar Bid As Recession Risks Rise, Black Gold & Breakevens Battered
- Why Is The VIX So Low? A Surprising Answer Emerges In The Market’s Microstructure
- Inflation is forcing Americans to change their diets: ‘We make vegetable soup’
These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.
China’s state capitalism = communism + capitalism
In this post, I will clearly define China’s state capitalism as communism + capitalism. This will help my fellow Americans best understand China, as well as the world.
28June2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street Main Indexes Trend Sharply Lower After Opening In The Green
Summary Of the Markets Today:
- The Dow closed down 491 points or 1.56%,
- Nasdaq closed down 2.98%,
- S&P 500 closed down 2.01%,
- WTI crude oil settled at 112, up 1.62%,
- USD $104.50 up 0.53%,
- Gold $1819 up 0.00%,
- Bitcoin $20244 down 3.01% – Session Low 20223,
- 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.196% up 0.002%
Today’s Economic Releases:
Home prices are still surging in April 2022 according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index. CoreLogic Deputy Chief Economist Selma Hepp stated:
While still surging at a 20.4% pace in April, the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index finally took a turn again in April and slowed from March’s peak increase of 20.6%. The slowing of monthly gains, which were up 2.1%, also suggest further deceleration ahead. Signs of a tipping point toward a greater balance between buyers and sellers are increasing, albeit only compared to some of the most competitive conditions since the early 2000s. In particular, there is a buildup in overall active inventory as fewer buyers are rushing to make offers, resulting in an increase in the share of homes that have reduced their prices from the original list price. Also, there is a notable deceleration of monthly gains in the Western markets where a rush to lock in favorable mortgage rates pushed home price growth higher in prior months.
The Richmond Fed (Fifth District) manufacturing declined again in June 2022. Manufacturing across the U.S. is slowing.
A summary of headlines we are reading today:
- The Catastrophic Environmental Consequences Of Russias Invasion Of Ukraine
- Tensions Are Rising Ahead Of Xi-Biden Meeting
- NASA begins its return to the moon with a low-cost CAPSTONE mission, launched by Rocket Lab
- JetBlue ups offer for Spirit Airlines as shareholder vote on Frontier bid nears
- Home price increases slowed in April for the first time in months, S&P Case-Shiller says
- ‘Bad News’ Is Bad News Again: Stocks Slammed On Macro Meltdown, Bonds Shrug
- Oil Tanker Halted By US Authorities In Transit From Russia To New Orleans
- Crypto: Crypto exchange CoinFlex says one of the most prominent names in the industry defaulted on $47 million USDC debt
These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.
27June2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street’s Major Indexes See-Sawed Across The Unchanged Line Ultimately Ending Moderately Down In The Red As Rebound Fails
Summary Of the Markets Today:
- The Dow closed down 642 points or 0.20%,
- Nasdaq closed down 0.72%,
- S&P 500 closed down 0.30%,
- WTI crude oil settled at 110, up 2.09%,
- USD $103.92 down 0.12%,
- Gold 1823 up 0.01%,
- Bitcoin $20894 up 1.90% – Session Low 20558,
- 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.205% up 0.081%
Today’s Economic Releases:
The National Association of Realtors announced that their May 2022 pending home sales index declined 13.6% year-over-year – although there was a modest increase month-over-month. According to NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun:
Despite the small gain in pending sales from the prior month, the housing market is clearly undergoing a transition. Contract signings are down sizably from a year ago because of much higher mortgage rates.
New orders for May 2022 durable goods increased according to US Census – and is up 10.9% year-over-year, Unfortunately, inflation in durable goods is running at 8.5% which reduces the growth substantially. Still, there are no signs of slowing in durable goods.
A summary of headlines we are reading today:
- The Steel Market Is In Chaos As Demand Uncertainty Grows
- Pending home sales post a surprise increase in May, likely due to a brief pullback in mortgage rates
- Airlines, FAA spar over flight delays as crucial Fourth of July weekend approaches
- ‘Good News’ Sends Stocks & Bonds Lower; Oil & Gas Prices Soar
- Amtrak Train Packed With 243 Passengers Derails In Missouri
- “F**k Clarence Thomas!” Shouts Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot During Pride Parade
- Corporate America was becoming more partisan even before Roe’s reversal —and that’s ‘likely not in the interest of shareholders,’ research says
- Bond Report: Treasury yields bounce across the board after breaking a string of 3 consecutive weekly rises
These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.