Weekly Crop Report April 29, 2023 – It looks like a good start but it is very early in season so too early to draw conclusions.

Updated at 3:52 a.m. EDT Sunday, April 30, 2023 to add the March Agriculture Cost and Price Report

This is the April 25, 2023, USFA Crop Bulletin which covers the Period April 16 – 22  for some information and April 17 – 23 for other information. The report becomes available on Tuesdays but I plan to present it on Saturdays as it will be featured all day on Saturday. I may later decide to publish this report on Tuesday nights.  I might add additional information. For those who need the information as soon as possible, the links to the information are provided at the end of the article.

It is early in the season so we are just beginning to have information on most crops. Moisture is not the issue but some areas have to get a bit warmer.

Weather: Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted April 29, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
344 PM EDT Sat Apr 29 2023

Valid 00Z Sun Apr 30 2023 – 00Z Tue May 02 2023

…Heavy rainfall and severe thunderstorms possible across the East Coast
through Sunday…

…Locally significant and long-duration snowfall event forecast across
the U.P. of Michigan and northern Wisconsin through early next week…

…Below average temperatures to enter the West Coast and much of the
Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and Northeast; while much warmer temperatures
spread throughout the Intermountain West, northern Rockies, and northern
High Plains…

The battle hymn of the tiger father

The battle hymn of the tiger father

In 2011, Amy Chua published a book entitled “Battle Hymn of the Tiger Mother“. As a tiger dad, I felt obligated to speak out and I did, with an article entitled The Battle Hymn of The Tiger Dad. Below is the conclusion:

There are many ways to do the same thing. In parenting, between the Chinese way and the American way, I chose the latter and am very happy about it!

Now, twelve years later, I have more complete results to report:

  • My elder son Dan (Yale, Economics, Class 2009) is now the CEO of a start-up named “The Real Seat” (https://www.therealseat.com/). It is intended to rival Ticket Master or Stub Hub (his last employer).
  • My younger son Ben (Michigan, Business, Class 2011) is now the CFO of a major line of business within GE.

28 April 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street Opens Higher Continues To Trend Upward As Markets Close In The Green

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 272 points or 0.80%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 0.69%,
  • S&P 500 closed up 0.83%,
  • Gold $1,998 down $1.30,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $77 up $1.88,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.422% down 0.104 points,
  • EUR/USD $1.102 down $0.001,
  • Bitcoin $29,381 down $325,
  • Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. +2 to 755 Canada -12 to 93

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.


Click here to read our Economic Forecast for May 2023


Today’s Economic Releases:

Inflation-adjusted disposable personal income increased 4.0 percent year-over-year (blue line on the graph below) while inflation-adjusted consumer spending increased 1.9% year-over-year (red line on the graph below). The important price indices (which reflect the amount of inflation) is 4.2% year-over-year (green line on the graph below) – 4.6% excluding food and energy).t). This data is not recessionary.

The University of Michigan’s April 2023 Consumer Sentiment Index was 63.5, and it was below the consensus forecast of 65.0. The decline in consumer sentiment was driven by a sharp drop in expectations for the future. The Index of Consumer Expectations fell to 64.7 from 70.7 in March. This was the lowest reading since December 2021. The Index of Current Economic Conditions was also lower in April, falling to 70.7 from 73.0 in March. This was the lowest reading since January 2022. This data is considered recessionary.

Chicago Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) increased to 48.6 – a reading below 50 implies a contraction of the manufacturing sector. The manufacturing sector has been in contraction for over 6 months.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • U.S. House To Vote To Repeal Biden’s Solar Panel Tariff Waivers
  • Chevron Beats Profit Estimates As Refining Margins Jump
  • Permian Rig Count Inches Higher As WTI Recoups Some Losses
  • Analysts See Oil Prices Rising To $90 By End-2023
  • Oil Set For Sixth Straight Monthly Loss
  • Senators Call For Seizure Of Iran Oil Cargos
  • Dow gains more than 250 points Friday as index finishes best month since January: Live updates
  • Key inflation gauge for the Fed rose 0.3% in March as expected
  • Cybersecurity stocks are getting battered. Here’s how the Silicon Valley Bank failure is to blame.

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Weather: Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted April 28, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
348 PM EDT Fri Apr 28 2023

Valid 00Z Sat Apr 29 2023 – 00Z Mon May 01 2023

…Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms will lead to increased
heavy rainfall chances across Eastern Seaboard and Gulf Coast through
Sunday…

…Severe thunderstorms possible in eastern Texas on Friday ahead of
advancing cold front…

…Warm and dry conditions expected this weekend west of the Continental
Divide; Critical Fire Weather over the Southwest Today…

27 April 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street Opened Sharply Higher And Continued to Post Gains, Massive Rally Closes At Session Highs

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 525 points or 1.57%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 2.43%,
  • S&P 500 closed up 1.96%,
  • Gold $1,997 up $1.50,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $75 up $0.46,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.526% up 0.096 points,
  • EUR/USD $1.102 down $0.002,
  • Bitcoin $29,683 up $2,039,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.


Click here to read our Economic Forecast for April 2023


Today’s Economic Releases:

The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that the advance estimate for 1Q2023 Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew at an annual rate of 1.1%. This was slower than the 2.6% growth in the fourth quarter of 2022. However, when viewed year-over-year – the economy grew at 1.6% (up from 0.9% in 4Q2023 – blue line in the graph below). Inflation calculate by the BEA fell to 5.3% in 1Q2023 (down from the 6.4% in 4Q2023 – red line in the graph below). The slowdown in GDP growth was driven by a number of factors, including:

  • A decline in consumer spending, which accounts for about 70% of GDP.
  • A decrease in business investment, which accounts for about 17% of GDP.
  • A slowdown in exports, which account for about 12% of GDP.

My takeaway is that economic growth is rather modest – and any black swan event would cause a recession.

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported that pending home sales decreased 5.2% in March 2023 from February. This was the first month-over-month decline since November 2022. On an annual basis, pending home sales were down 23.2%. Pending home sales measures the number of homes that have gone under contract but have not yet closed. The decline in pending home sales is being caused to a significant degree by lower inventory of homes for sale

The Kansas City Fed’s Tenth District Manufacturing Activity composite index was -10 in April, down from 0 in March and February. The composite index is an average of the production, new orders, employment, supplier delivery time, and raw materials inventory indexes.

According to the U.S. Department of Labor, initial claims for state unemployment benefits four-week moving average decreased by 4,000 to 236,000. The decrease in claims was driven by a decline in layoffs in the leisure and hospitality sector. Claims in the sector decreased by 12,000, accounting for all of the decline in initial claims.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Tanker Carrying Oil For Chevron Seized By Iran
  • The High Costs Of Electrifying The U.S. Auto Industry
  • Wisconsin’s Only Oil Refinery Reopens 5 Years After Explosion
  • Falling Crude Prices Drag Down Profits At China’s Oil Giants
  • Pioneer CEO Retirement Could Reignite Exxon Takeover Talks
  • Dow jumps 500 points on strong earnings, heads for best day since January: Live updates
  • Amazon earnings are out — here are the numbers
  • Here’s why the stock market is having such a massive rally today
  • U.S. GDP rose at a 1.1% pace in the first quarter as signs build that the economy is slowing
  • Market Snapshot: Dow jumps over 500 points as stocks rally after earnings from Meta and other big-tech names

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Weather: Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted April 27, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
357 PM EDT Thu Apr 27 2023

Valid 00Z Fri Apr 28 2023 – 00Z Sun Apr 30 2023

…More rounds of heavy rain and severe weather are expected to impact the
southeastern quadrant of the U.S. through late week …

…Another quick round of wet snow should spread from the northern to
central Rockies through tonight/early Friday…

…A warming trend across the West could break temperature records by
Friday while below average temperatures are forecast for large portions of
the U.S. from the Rockies eastward…

26 April 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street Opened Higher, Then Trended Lower as tech leads the Nasdaq higher

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 229 points or 0.68%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 0.47%,
  • S&P 500 closed down 0.38%,
  • Gold $1,998 down $6.90,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $74 down $2.81,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.441% up 0.043 points,
  • EUR/USD $1.104 up $0.006,
  • Bitcoin $27,362 down $366

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.


Click here to read our Economic Forecast for April 2023


Today’s Economic Releases:

New orders for manufactured durable goods in March increased to 4.6% year-over-year (5.6% inflation-adjusted). The increase is predominately due to civilian aircraft.

 

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Schiff: Gold Is A Buy In Every Single Currency
  • IEA: EVs Will Account For 20% Of All Car Sales This Year
  • Large Crude Inventory Draw Jolts Oil Prices
  • Pipeline Failure Triggers Inspection Of Davis-Besse Nuclear Power Plant
  • Oil Prices Slip As Banking Fears Return
  • First Republic’s dramatic slide continues, stock falls 30% as bank looks for rescue deal
  • Dow, S&P 500 close lower Wednesday as First Republic woes eclipse Big Tech earnings: Live updates
  • Tyson Foods to eliminate 10% of corporate jobs, memo says
  • Commodities Bellwether Flashes US Recession Warning
  • Revolution Investing: Stock investors are right to be cautious now, and being bearish is even smarter

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Weather: Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted April 26, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
356 PM EDT Wed Apr 26 2023

Valid 00Z Thu Apr 27 2023 – 00Z Sat Apr 29 2023

…Heavy rain and severe weather in the Southern Plains through tonight
should push east Thursday-Friday…

…Severe weather with potentially large hail could occur across the
Florida Peninsula through this evening…

…Heavy wet snow over portions of the Rockies is tapering off, but more
wet snow is expected by Thursday…

…Warming temperatures across the West could break records by Friday
while below average temperatures are forecast for large portions of the
U.S. from the Rockies eastward…