Weather: Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted May 11, 2023

First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)

Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE

TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)

TOMORROW

NEXT DAY

This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.

ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS

This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update.   Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.

Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.

A very active weather pattern expected to continue over the next several
days across the mid section of the nation. Heavy rains that have been
focusing across eastern Texas into Louisiana and Arkansas over the past
few days will begin to diminish this evening as the disturbance
responsible for the heavy rains pushes to the northeast. There will be
the potential for locally heavy rains across portions of the Tennessee and
Ohio Valleys as this disturbance affects these regions, but the expected
progressive nature of the disturbance should keep precipitation totals
from being as heavy as areas from eastern Texas into Arkansas have
experienced.

While the heavy rain threat diminishes across eastern Texas to Arkansas,
it will be increasing across large portions of the Plains. Heavy rains
will be associated with a strong mid to upper level low that will be
pushing northward tonight from eastern Colorado, across the Central Plains
on Saturday and into the Northern Plains on Sunday. Heavy rains already
developing early Thursday afternoon from western Kansas into eastern
Colorado will continue to expand north and northeastward as the strong
closed low moves northeastward. This will produce an axis of heavy rains
from northeast Colorado, across much of Nebraska, far eastern Wyoming, far
eastern Montana, all of North and South Dakota, southwest Minnesota and
northern Iowa. This will be providing much needed rains to portions of the
Central to Northern High Plains that are currently experiencing moderate
to extreme drought conditions. While these rains are much needed, the
potential for a prolonged period of potentially heavy rains will pose a
flash flood threat across these regions. In addition to the heavy rain
and flash flood potential across the Central to Northern Plains, severe
thunderstorms are possible on the eastern side of this strong upper level
low, stretching from North Texas, across Oklahoma, Kansas, eastern
Colorado, eastern Nebraska, northwest Missouri, southeast South Dakota
into western Iowa over the next two days. Across these regions, large
hail, high winds and tornadoes are possible.

Beginning Friday night another strong upper level system is expected to
push northward from northeast Mexico and across western to central Texas
and eastern New Mexico through the day on Saturday. This next system will
produce potential for another swath of heavy rains stretching from South
to North Central Texas. Similar to areas farther to the north across the
Central and Northern Plains, these rains will be bringing some relief to
widespread severe to extreme drought conditions affecting this area. There
will be the potential for more than one round of heavy rains across these
regions, with some of the rain areas having the potential to be very slow
moving. This will lead to an increasing chance of flash flooding from
late Friday night through the day on Saturday across these regions.
Similar to areas farther to the north, these heavy rains will also be
accompanied by the potential for severe weather, with high winds and large
hail the greatest threat.

While the middle section of the nation will be affected by strong upper
level lows over the next few days, a building upper level high will be
forming from northern California, across the Pacific Northwest and into
southwestern Canada. This will be leading to building heat across these
areas where high temperatures are expected to be well above average from
Friday, through the weekend and into next week. There will be potential
for some record high temperatures by Saturday across western Oregon and
western Washington with this potential continuing into Sunday and Monday.
The only areas of below average temperatures over the next few days will
be across the Plains where the heavy rain potential will limit sunshine
and keep temperatures 10 to 20 degrees below average.

Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4.  An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.

Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.

Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1)	Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2)	Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays)
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/	https://www.cpc.ncep   .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/	https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/

Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.

6 – 10
8 – 14
3 – 4

HAZARDS OUTLOOKS

Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays.  Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report.  So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.

 

Daily Agricultural Weather Highlights can be found HERE

Month to Date Information

Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png

Precipitation month to date can be found at  https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png

World Forecast

Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6  forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE

World Temperature Anomalies

World Accumulated Precipitation

 

This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.

Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)

This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here  Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.

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I hope you found this article interesting and useful.

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