Updated at 5:18 p.m. EDT Wednesday, May 10, 2023
Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.
We start with the U.S. Information.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
357 PM EDT Wed May 10 2023Valid 00Z Thu May 11 2023 – 00Z Sat May 13 2023
…Heavy rain and flash flooding is likely across the Lower Mississippi
Valley through early Thursday before the next round of excessive rainfall
enters south-central Texas on Friday……Severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall for portions of the Central and
Northern Plains the next couple of days……Warm up coming for both the East and West Coast heading into the
weekend…
| Information Note: This article is now set up so that all the maps should automatically update. The links are provided but should not be needed. The downside is that if you go back to a previous version the maps will have been updated and not be relevant to the date of the prior article but will be current information. The NWS twice-a-day 48-hour forecasts do not auto-update in this article. I do it and I can be late doing it. The link for the NWS updates is HERE. Most of our other articles will not be set up to auto-update so that prior versions of the article will be meaningful.
Recently, we published the Colorado Basin and Utah Basin Report for conditions as of May 1, 2023. You can access it HERE. It also contains information on other Western Reservoirs and on the Annual Plan for the Rio Grande. Remember the easiest way to get back to the article you were reading is to hit the return arrow in the upper left of your screen. There are other ways. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
The central United States will have no shortage of active weather through
the end of this week as chances for severe thunderstorms and flash
flooding span each day, while including a majority of the Great Plains. A
Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of Excessive Rainfall remains in effect for the
Lower Mississippi Valley through early Thursday morning, as renewed
convective development Wednesday evening will likely lead to another round
of heavy rainfall initially focused on the ArkLaTex. These storms are
forecast to continue eastward while expanding southeastward through the
Lower Mississippi Valley later into the day Thursday, with a continued
Slight Risk (level 2/4) in effect. A moisture-rich environment will help
to fuel intense, heavy rain rates on already saturated soils from rainfall
earlier today, leading to the concern for flash flooding.Meanwhile, a deep upper-level trough/closed low traversing the Southwest
and southern Rockies will aid in a developing storm system over the
central High Plains that will help fuel the chances for numerous showers
and thunderstorms throughout the northern and central Plains through the
end of the week. Plentiful atmospheric moisture content surging northward
throughout the Great Plains combined with upslope enhancement in the High
Plains will allow for heavy rainfall and scattered flash flood concerns
across much of the central/northern High Plains on Thursday, prompting a
broad Slight Risk (level 2/4) of Excessive Rainfall for the region.
Additionally, thunderstorms may turn severe for this region while also
extending south into Oklahoma. The Storm Prediction Center has also
introduced an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of severe weather focused on
western Kansas into central Oklahoma as a favorable combination of CAPE as
well as deep and low-level shear has increased chances these storms may
produce large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes, including the
possibility of significant tornadoes. The severe weather threat will shift
into Mid-Missouri Valley Friday as the system gradually moves to the east.
The heavy rain/flash flood threat will also likely linger further west for
portions of the Northern Plains under the influence of the upper low, with
the potential locally for multiple inches of additional rainfall on wet
ground conditions from Thursday.The next round of excessive rainfall to impact the Lone Star State is set
to enter south-central portions of the region on Friday and linger into
the weekend. The main impacts through early Saturday are anticipated to be
associated with the heavy rainfall and flash flooding threat. Although
this part of the country is designated as being within severe to
exceptional drought, the signal for areal average rainfall of several
inches has been persistent, which would expectedly prompt at least
scattered if not numerous flash flooding chances. As a result, a Moderate
Risk of Excessive Rainfall has been issued for parts of south-central
Texas and the Hill Country.Outside of the influence of the central U.S. system, a significant warming
trend is expected along the West Coast/adjacent Interior West heading into
the weekend. Temperatures will begin to rise 10-20 degrees above average
Friday, with highs reaching into the mid- to upper 80s as far north as
Oregon. This will only be the start of an early season heat wave focused
on the Pacific Northwest this weekend. Above average temperatures will
also shift from the Great Lakes to the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic
Thursday-Friday. Most highs will be in the upper 70s to low 80s across the
region Thursday, with mid-80s forecast for the Mid-Atlantic Friday.
Elsewhere, highs will be near to above average for the South, with 80s
expected for most locations. The Northern/Central Rockies and adjacent
High Plains will be the one cool spot as highs remain in the 50s and 60s
under the influence of the upper-trough/closed low and widespread
precipitation.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
6 –
10
8 –
14
3 –
4
HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
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I hope you found this article interesting and useful. –
