March 20, 2023 Colorado Basin River Forecast Center (CBRFC) Water Supply Forecast Discussion

March 22, 2023Posted inweather2 Comments

Updated slightly at 3:16 p.m. EDT March 22, 2023

The mission of the National Weather Service Colorado Basin River Forecast Center (CBRFC) is to produce river, flood and water supply forecasts for the Colorado Basin and the Great Basin in support of saving lives and property and to enhance the region’s environment and economy.

In this article, I am providing a large amount of the material I received in the latest update which they described as a mid-month update.

I have also included information on the current reservoir storage levels.

The image below shows the area covered in the CBRFC Report as well as the current snowpack.

Weather: Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Five-Day Forecast for the World: posted March 22, 2023

March 22, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 PM EDT Wed Mar 22 2023

Valid 00Z Thu Mar 23 2023 – 00Z Sat Mar 25 2023

…Strong to severe thunderstorms will become a significant concern
beginning Thursday afternoon and continuing through Friday for portions of
the Southern Plains, Lower Mississippi Valley and the Mid-South…

…Widespread heavy rain and flash flooding will become increasingly
likely by Friday across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley and Ohio
Valley from numerous rounds of showers and thunderstorms…

…Very warm temperatures will persist through the end of the week across
much of the South and the East…

…Unsettled weather and chilly temperatures with locally heavy mountain
snowfall to continue across the West…

Weather: Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Five-Day Forecast for the World: posted March 21, 2023

March 21, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at  4:02  p.m. EDT Tuesday, March 21, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
353 PM EDT Tue Mar 21 2023

Valid 00Z Wed Mar 22 2023 – 00Z Fri Mar 24 2023

…Powerful storm system to spread high winds, heavy rain, and heavy
mountain snow into portions of California and the Southwest…

…Widespread rain and heavy mountain snow expected to move across the
Southwest, Great Basin, and the central and southern Rockies by early
Thursday…

…Heavy snowfall to impact portions of the Northern Plains and Upper
Mississippi Valley through midweek…

Weather: Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Five-Day Forecast for the World: posted March 20, 2023

March 20, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 5:05 p.m. EDT Monday, March 20, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
349 PM EDT Mon Mar 20 2023

Valid 00Z Tue Mar 21 2023 – 00Z Thu Mar 23 2023

…Powerful storm system to spread high winds, heavy rain, and heavy
mountain snow to parts of California and the Southwest on Tuesday…

…Threat of heavy snow continues across the Intermountain West and
Rockies over the next few days…

…A couple rounds of light-to-moderate snowfall are expected across
portions of the northern Plains and Upper Midwest between Tuesday and
Thursday morning...

Weather: Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Five-Day Forecast for the World: posted March 19, 2023

March 19, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 4 p.m. EDT Sunday March 19, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
348 PM EDT Sun Mar 19 2023

Valid 00Z Mon Mar 20 2023 – 00Z Wed Mar 22 2023

…Record-breaking cold across the Southeast Monday morning to lead to
widespread and potentially harmful freezing temperatures…

…Strong storm system to impact southern California on Tuesday with high
winds, heavy rain, and heavy mountain snow…

…Heavy snow to impact parts of the Intermountain West and Rockies before
wintry weather spreads into the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on
Tuesday…

Weather: Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Five-Day Forecast for the World: posted March 18, 2023

March 18, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 4 p.m. EDT Saturday, March 18 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
345 PM EDT Sat Mar 18 2023

Valid 00Z Sun Mar 19 2023 – 00Z Tue Mar 21 2023

…Much below normal temperatures to engulf much of the East & South
through Monday; lingering lake effect snow showers tonight & Sunday…

…Next round of rain and heavy mountain snow, colder than normal
temperatures expected throughout the West into next week…

…Scattered showers and thunderstorms across Florida…

NOAA Updates it’s Four-Season Outlook on March 16, 2023 – Entering ENSO Neutral but it may switch to El Nino after the Summer

March 17, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

On the third Thursday of the month right on schedule NOAA issued what I describe as their Four-Season Outlook. The information released also included the Mid-Month Outlook for the single month of April plus the weather and drought outlook for the next three months.  I present the information issued and try to add context to it. It is quite a challenge for NOAA to address the subsequent month, the subsequent three-month period as well as successive three-month periods for a year or a bit more.

It is very useful to read the excellent discussion that NOAA issues with this Seasonal Outlook.

Ocean conditions no longer reflect La Nina but the atmosphere still has some lingering La Nina characteristics. ENSO Neutral will be the prevailing condition but its impacts are less during the Spring and Summer Seasons. The Southwest Monsoon may start late. The outlook partially reflects El Nino conditions beginning in the Autumn of 2023. We may see more El Nino impacts reflected in the Outlook next month if the confidence in an El Nino gradually increases as we pass through the Spring Prediction Barrier (SPB).

Weather: Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Five-Day Forecast for the World: posted March 17, 2023

March 17, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 3:40 p.m. EDT March 17, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
328 PM EDT Fri Mar 17 2023

Valid 00Z Sat Mar 18 2023 – 00Z Mon Mar 20 2023

…Heavy showers and thunderstorms will impact portions of the eastern
Gulf Coast and Southeast tonight into Saturday…

…Heavy lake-effect snow and snow squalls to impact areas of the Great
Lakes, Ohio Valley and Northeast this weekend…

…Below to much below normal temperatures expected across much of the
central and eastern U.S. this weekend…

Weather: Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Five-Day Forecast for the World: posted March 16, 2023

March 16, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 6:10 p.m. Thursday, March 16, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
349 PM EDT Thu Mar 16 2023

Valid 00Z Fri Mar 17 2023 – 00Z Sun Mar 19 2023

…Strong to severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall can be expected
through tonight across portions of the Southern Plains and Lower
Mississippi Valley…

…Heavy snow is expected over portions of the Upper Midwest and into the
Upper Peninsula of Michigan tonight through the first half of the
weekend…

…Much of the U.S. will see below to much below normal temperatures going
into the weekend…

Weather: Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Five-Day Forecast for the World: posted March 15, 2023

March 15, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 3:47 p.m. EDT on Wednesday, March 15, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
336 PM EDT Wed Mar 15 2023

Valid 00Z Thu Mar 16 2023 – 00Z Sat Mar 18 2023

…Heavy snow to impact the central Rockies tonight into Thursday, while
also spreading across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes through Friday…

…Severe thunderstorms and instances of flash flooding possible across
parts of the southern Plains and lower Mississippi Valley Thursday into
Thursday night…

…Freeze Warnings and Frost Advisories in effect across the Southeast,
with well below average temperatures shifting to much of the central U.S.
by the end of the week…