Updated at 3:40 p.m. EDT March 17, 2023
Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.
We start with the U.S. Information.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
328 PM EDT Fri Mar 17 2023Valid 00Z Sat Mar 18 2023 – 00Z Mon Mar 20 2023
…Heavy showers and thunderstorms will impact portions of the eastern
Gulf Coast and Southeast tonight into Saturday……Heavy lake-effect snow and snow squalls to impact areas of the Great
Lakes, Ohio Valley and Northeast this weekend……Below to much below normal temperatures expected across much of the
central and eastern U.S. this weekend…
| Information Note: This article is now set up so that all the maps should automatically update. The links are provided but should not be needed. The downside is that if you go back to a previous version the maps will have been updated and not be relevant to the date of the prior article but will be current information. The NWS twice-a-day 48-hour forecasts do not auto-update in this article. I do it and I can be late doing it. The link for the NWS updates is HERE. Most of our other articles will not be set up to auto-update so that prior versions of the article will be meaningful.
We also just published the NOAA Four Season Outlook. You can access it HERE. Remember the easiest way to get back to the article you were reading is to hit the return arrow in the upper left of your screen. There are other ways. Some might find the USGS ARkStorm Scenario Interesting. Click HERE to read. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. I try to keep the below three maps updated. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. I will be doing the updating during the period described in the title of the article but if you happen to read this article later, you can get updates by clicking HERE
A strong area of low pressure associated with the latest winter storm
impacting the Great Lakes region will advance into southeast Canada
tonight and through the weekend. However, strong winds and much colder air
surging south around the departing low center will keep a threat of heavy
lake-effect snow going across the U.P. of Michigan where snowfall totals
of as much as 1 to 2 feet can be expected by early Saturday. Heavy
lake-effect snow will also develop and impact areas of northwest and
southwest Lower Michigan tonight and Saturday downwind of Lake Michigan,
and as much as 6 to 12 inches may accumulate here.The exiting low center will also drive a strong cold front through the
eastern U.S., and this coupled with a secondary surge of Arctic air
dropping south from Canada will transport a large area of below to much
below normal temperatures across the Plains, Midwest and gradually into
much of the East heading into the weekend. The cold air and strong winds
crossing the remainder of the Great Lakes region will also set the stage
for heavy lake-effect snow to develop downwind of Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario, and portions of northwest Pennsylvania and especially western New
York will see heavy accumulations. Areas near the Tug Hill Plateau will
likely see as much as 12 to 18 inches of snow by Sunday. As this secondary
surge of cold air and the associated front arrives across the Ohio Valley
and into the Northeast on Saturday, there will concerns for multiple bands
of intense snow squalls which will likely produce areas of low visibility,
blowing snow, and thus hazardous travel conditions.Prior to the arrival of cold air across the South, there will still be
some mild air lingering across the Gulf Coast states and the Southeast
going through this evening and into early Saturday. Locally heavy showers
and thunderstorms are expected along and ahead of the cold front as it
crosses the region. A few severe thunderstorms will be possible this
evening across areas of the northeast Gulf Coast region with damaging
winds and possibly a tornado possible with the stronger storms. Areas of
heavy rain may lead to an isolated concern for some runoff problems, and
these rains will spread into the Florida Peninsula this weekend as the
front settles southward.Drier air and tranquil weather will remain in place across much of the
West through Saturday with temperatures near to slightly below normal,
except for the Pacific Northwest where temperatures will be slightly above
normal. However, a new storm system will be approaching the West Coast on
Sunday, and this will bring a new round of locally heavy rains into
central and northern California, and southwest Oregon. This storm will be
bringing more heavy snow to the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada.
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
A strong area of low pressure associated with the latest winter storm
impacting the Great Lakes region will advance into southeast Canada
tonight and through the weekend. However, strong winds and much colder air
surging south around the departing low center will keep a threat of heavy
lake-effect snow going across the U.P. of Michigan where snowfall totals
of as much as 1 to 2 feet can be expected by early Saturday. Heavy
lake-effect snow will also develop and impact areas of northwest and
southwest Lower Michigan tonight and Saturday downwind of Lake Michigan,
and as much as 6 to 12 inches may accumulate here.The exiting low center will also drive a strong cold front through the
eastern U.S., and this coupled with a secondary surge of Arctic air
dropping south from Canada will transport a large area of below to much
below normal temperatures across the Plains, Midwest and gradually into
much of the East heading into the weekend. The cold air and strong winds
crossing the remainder of the Great Lakes region will also set the stage
for heavy lake-effect snow to develop downwind of Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario, and portions of northwest Pennsylvania and especially western New
York will see heavy accumulations. Areas near the Tug Hill Plateau will
likely see as much as 12 to 18 inches of snow by Sunday. As this secondary
surge of cold air and the associated front arrives across the Ohio Valley
and into the Northeast on Saturday, there will concerns for multiple bands
of intense snow squalls which will likely produce areas of low visibility,
blowing snow, and thus hazardous travel conditions.Prior to the arrival of cold air across the South, there will still be
some mild air lingering across the Gulf Coast states and the Southeast
going through this evening and into early Saturday. Locally heavy showers
and thunderstorms are expected along and ahead of the cold front as it
crosses the region. A few severe thunderstorms will be possible this
evening across areas of the northeast Gulf Coast region with damaging
winds and possibly a tornado possible with the stronger storms. Areas of
heavy rain may lead to an isolated concern for some runoff problems, and
these rains will spread into the Florida Peninsula this weekend as the
front settles southward.Drier air and tranquil weather will remain in place across much of the
West through Saturday with temperatures near to slightly below normal,
except for the Pacific Northwest where temperatures will be slightly above
normal. However, a new storm system will be approaching the West Coast on
Sunday, and this will bring a new round of locally heavy rains into
central and northern California, and southwest Oregon. This storm will be
bringing more heavy snow to the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6
– 10
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| 8
– 14 |
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| 3
– 4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Month to Date Information
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the 5-Day forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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