Crop Report October 4, 2023 – Frost Concerns Begin

October 4, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

This article is based primarily on the October 3, 2023, USDA Crop Bulletin which covers the week ending October 1, 2023.  The full USDA Crop Bulletin can be accessed HERE

It again seems like an average crop which is good considering the late and poor start.  But we are concerned about the Frost/Freeze warning. Because we published a few days late last week there have only been a small number of days between that article and this one.

This article includes a short international review of agricultural conditions which are generally favorable. I also included U.S. crop-related weather forecasts. And there is a small grains production forecast.

We first take a look at the frost/Freeze warning.

We then take a look at the impact of flooding in Greece. I realize that Greece is not in the U.S. but the USDA thought it important enough to include this in their crop bulletin so I am showing it as it may impact world cotton production.

Now on to the National Agriculture Summary.  The Tables below the summary have additional data. The boxes with my comments may be incomplete so for crops of interest check the data out yourself to be sure.

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted October 4, 2023

October 4, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Wed Oct 04 2023
Valid 12Z Wed Oct 04 2023 – 12Z Fri Oct 06 2023

…There is a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley on Wednesday…

…There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Southern Plains on Wednesday…

…Temperatures will be 15 to 25 degrees above average from the Great
Lakes/Ohio Valley to the Northeast…

cone graphic

03 Oct 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines:U.S. Dollar rises, Dow Sinks 500 Points, And The S&P 500 Heads Down To The 4,200 Major Support Level

October 3, 2023Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 431 points or 1.29%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 1.87%,
  • S&P 500 closed down 1.37%, (low 4,216)
  • Gold $1,840 down $7.50,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $90 up $0.73,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.800% up 0.117 points,
  • USD Index $107.01 up $0.110,
  • Bitcoin $27,253 down $660,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for October 2023

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI™) for August 2023 increased by 3.7% year over year in August 2023 compared with August 2022. On a month-over-month basis, home prices rose by 0.3% compared with July 2023. Said Selma Hepp, chief economist for CoreLogic:

While continued mortgage rate increases challenge affordability across U.S. housing markets, home price growth is in line with typical seasonal averages, reflecting strong demand bolstered by a healthy labor market, strong wage growth and supporting demographic trends. Still, with a slower buying season ahead and the surging cost of homeownership, additional monthly price gains may taper off.

The number of job openings increased to 9.6 million on the last business day of August. Over the month, the number of hires and total separations changed little at 5.9 million and 5.7 million, respectively. Within separations, quits (3.6 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.7 million) changed little. The bottom line is that the labor market is in a strange situation where the employment gains are moderating whilst unfilled jobs have changed little year-over-year. Obviously, the properly skilled people are not available. IMO this gap will be closed by automating the skilled tasks.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • How Effective Are Electric Vehicles In Reducing Emissions?
  • Offshore Wind Industry Hits Rough Waters Amid Rising Costs
  • Budget Airlines Defy Travel Slowdown Concerns
  • Coal Production Surges By 83% At India’s Largest Power Firm
  • DOE Eyes Historic $1 Billion Loan To Kickstart U.S. Lithium Boom
  • Production Pauses Hit Tesla’s Q3 Figures Harder Than Anticipated
  • Dow loses more than 400 points and goes negative for 2023 as interest rates spike: Live updates
  • Mortgage rate races toward 8% after hitting a high not seen since late 2000
  • Krispy Kreme puts Insomnia Cookies brand up for sale as it doubles down on doughnuts
  • GM sales jump 21% in the third quarter, Stellantis sees a drop
  • Spiking yields weigh on homebuilder stocks, but their bonds are telling another story

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted October 3, 2023

October 3, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Tue Oct 03 2023
Valid 12Z Tue Oct 03 2023 – 12Z Thu Oct 05 2023

…There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Western
Gulf Coast on Tuesday and over the Southern Plains and Middle/Lower
Mississippi Valley on Wednesday…

…There is an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Central/Southern Plains on Tuesday and a Slight Risk over parts of the
Southern High Plains on Wednesday…

…Snow over parts of the highest elevations of Wyoming…

 

02 Oct 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines:Markets Close Mixed After A Roller-Coaster Session

October 2, 2023Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 74 points or 0.22%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 0.67%,
  • S&P 500 closed flat 0.01%,
  • Gold $1,840 down $21.10,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $89 down $2.01,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.687% up 0.116 points,
  • USD Index $107.01 up $0.790,
  • Bitcoin $27,843 up $714,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for October 2023

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The Institute of Supply Management Manufacturing PMI® registered 49% in September 2023 – 1.4 percentage points higher than the 47.6% recorded in August. A Manufacturing PMI® above 48.7%, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. The New Orders Index remained in contraction territory at 49.2 percent, 2.4 percentage points higher than the figure of 46.8 percent recorded in August.

Construction spending during August 2023 is 7.4% above August 2022 – 3.3% inflation-adjusted. Construction now appears to be expanding year-over-year.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Rising Oil Prices Threaten Economic Stability
  • OPEC+ On Alert As World Bank Slashes China’s Growth Forecasts
  • Clash Over Electric Vehicle Battery Plants Stall UAW Negotiations
  • China’s Power Sector Investments Set To Top $13.9 Trillion By 2060
  • Dow slides to begin October even as Congress staves off government shutdown: Live updates
  • The benchmark for small-cap stocks — the Russell 2000 — turned negative for the year
  • Bill Ackman says the economy is starting to slow and the Fed is likely done hiking
  • Bonds, Bullion, & Black Gold Battered As Hawkish FedSpeak & Inflation Fears Lift The Dollar
  • Market Extra: Why stock-market investors aren’t finding comfort in averted government shutdown
  • Court strikes down federal rule that sharply increased prescription costs for many patients

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

NOAA Updates its October 2023 Weather Outlook on September 30, 2023 – There have been some significant changes from the Mid-Month Outlook.

October 2, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

At the end of every month, NOAA updates its Outlook for the following month which in this case is October of 2023. We are reporting on that tonight.

There have been some significant changes in the Outlook for October and these are addressed in the NOAA Discussion so it is well worth reading.  We provided the prior Mid-Month Outlook for October for comparison. It is easy to see the changes by comparing the Mid-Month and Updated Maps.

The article includes the Drought Outlook for October. NOAA also adjusted the previously issued Seasonal Drought Outlook to reflect the changes in the October Drought Outlook. We have included a map showing the water-year-to-date precipitation. We also provide the Week 2/3 Tropical Outlook for the World.

The best way to understand the updated outlook for October is to view the maps and read the NOAA discussion. I have highlighted the key statements in the NOAA Discussion.

I am going to start with graphics that show the updated Outlook for October and the Mid-Month Outlook for October. This is followed by a graphic that shows both the Updated Outlook for October and also the three-month outlook OND 2023. So you get the full picture in three graphics.

Here is the updated Outlook for October 2023

For Comparison Purposes, Here is the Mid-Month Outlook for October.

There have been some significant changes. Remember, it is the top set of maps that are the current outlook for October.

Combination of the Updated Outlook for October and the Three-Month Outlook

 

The top row is the Updated Outlook for the new month. There is a temperature map and a precipitation map. The second row is a three-month outlook that includes the new month. I think the outlook maps are self-explanatory. What is important to remember is that they show deviations from the current definition of normal which is the period 1991 through 2020.  So this is not a forecast of the absolute value of temperature or precipitation but the change from what is defined as normal or to use the technical term climatology.

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted October 2, 2023

October 2, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Mon Oct 02 2023
Valid 12Z Mon Oct 02 2023 – 12Z Wed Oct 04 2023

…There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern
High Plains on Monday…

…There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Southern High Plains on Monday and over parts of the Central/Southern
Plains on Tuesday…

…Moderate to heavy snow over parts of the higher elevations of Northern
Rockies…

 

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted October 1, 2023

October 1, 2023Posted inUncategorizedNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sun Oct 01 2023
Valid 12Z Sun Oct 01 2023 – 12Z Tue Oct 03 2023

…There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the east
coast of Florida on Sunday and over the Southern High Plains on Monday…

…There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Southern High Plains on Monday…

…Heavy snow over parts of the higher elevations of northeastern Utah…

 

Crop Report September 30, 2023 – Still Looking Good – Not Sure What a Government Shut Down will Entail

September 30, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

This article is based primarily on the September 26, 2023, USDA Crop Bulletin which covers the week ending September 24, 2023.  The full USDA Crop Bulletin can be accessed HERE

It again seems like an average crop which is good considering the late and poor start.  Because we published a few days late we were able to include the Crop Prices report that has indices for prices received and prices paid by farmers for their purchases but the ratio of prices received to prices paid is essentially the same in August as it was in July. But like all indices one sometimes has to look into the details to know how to interpret the indices and in this case the ratio of the price and cost indices. We show the summary and provide a link to the full report. Obviously, the full report is quite long and readers interested in this subject can follow the link provided and draw their own conclusions.

The article includes a short international review of agricultural conditions which are generally favorable. I also included U.S. crop-related weather forecasts.

We begin by taking a look at the impact of Tropical Storm Ophelia. It is probably too soon to assess the crop impacts which will show up in the USDA Crop Bulletin that will be issued on October 3 if the U.S. Government is not shut down.

Now on to the National Agriculture Summary.  The Tables below the summary have additional data. The boxes with my comments may be incomplete so for crops of interest check the data out yourself to be sure.