25 Oct 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street Opens Mixed, Trends Lower, S&P 500 Tumbles To Corrective Territory And NASDAQ Sees Worst Day Since February

October 25, 2023Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 105 points or 0.32%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 2.43%,
  • S&P 500 closed down 1.43%, (Low 4,187: 4,200 = critical support level)
  • Gold $1,992 up $6.10,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $85 up $1.52,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.942% up 0.102 points,
  • USD Index $106.53 up $0.260,
  • Bitcoin $34,731 up $936,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for October 2023

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Sales of new single‐family houses in September 2023 were 33.9% above September 2022 (blue line on the graph below). The median sales price of new houses sold in September 2023 was down 12.3% year-over-year. (red line on the graph below). The seasonally adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of September was 435,000. This represents a supply of 6.9 months at the current sales rate. New home sales in 2023 remain relatively strong as house sizes have shrunk to maintain affordability.

source: NAHB

 

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Hyperloop Technology Gains Momentum With New Freight System
  • Libya’s Eastern Govt Calls For Oil Export Embargo For Israel Supporters
  • Tensions Escalate As Russia Steps Away From Nuclear Treaty Commitment
  • Oil Market Blind-sided By Israel’s War On Hamas
  • Oil Ticks Lower On Inventory Build
  • S&P 500 falls more than 1% to close below 4,200 for first time since May, Nasdaq notches worst day since February
  • World’s Oldest Central Bank Seeking $7 Billion Bailout After Massive Bond Losses
  • Mexican Media Magnate Says ‘Buy Bitcoin, Sell Bonds, Reject Inflation’
  • Bond Report: Treasury yields end at some of 2023’s highest levels ahead of GDP, inflation data
  • Market Snapshot: Nasdaq on pace to enter a correction as tech shares lead U.S. stocks lower after mixed earnings

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Crop Report October 25, 2023 – The Agricultural Statistics Board Briefing has Some Concerning Yield and Production Trends

October 25, 2023Posted inagriculture, weatherNo Comments

We are at the point now where crop progress may not be what is of most interest. The monthly Agricultural Statistics Board Briefing (It used to be called an Executive Briefing) may be more useful.  The full Briefing can be accessed HERE.  It is simply too long for me to snip that many images and publish them.  What I have done instead is select certain images that will be of most interest and present them instead of the usual crop Progress Report.  But I have included a link to the statistical part of the Weekly Crop Progress Report so that is also available to readers.

 

What is included in the Briefing is a combination of historical information and in most cases the current forecast for what the harvest will be like. In the full Briefing but not included in this article are slides that show how the forecasts have varied month by month and what the current forecast is and what other industry forecasts are. This Briefing is about crops not animals.

Of interest to me is the history of yields and also the history of actual production. In general, that data is concerning. I think most of the slides are self-explanatory so I have not included commentary on each slide.

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted October 25, 2023

October 25, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Wed Oct 25 2023
Valid 12Z Wed Oct 25 2023 – 12Z Fri Oct 27 2023

..Significant early season winter storm brings heavy snowfall to portions
of the Northwest, Northern Rockies, and Northern Plains…

…Widespread heavy rainfall with scattered to widespread instances of
flash flooding possible in the Southern Plains Wednesday…

…Much above average temperatures for eastern and central portions of the
country while temperatures turn frigid in the Northern Rockies and
Plains…

 

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24 Oct 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street Opened Fractionally Higher, Tested Unchanged Line, Finally Closing Moderately Higher

October 24, 2023Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 205 points or 0.62%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 0.93%,
  • S&P 500 closed up 0.73%, (Low 4,227)
  • Gold $1,983 down $4.50,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $84 down $1.72,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.819% down 0.019 points,
  • USD Index $106.23 up $0.700,
  • Bitcoin $33,794 up $2,389,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for October 2023

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The Richmond Fed manufacturing activity changed little in October 2023 with the composite manufacturing index edging down from 5 in September to 3 in October. Of its three component indexes, shipments edged up from 7 to 9, new orders fell from 3 to −4, and employment remained at 7. Overall, the Regional Fed surveys have been in negative territory for well over one year – and little indication yet this trend will change.

The Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach – which handles 40% of the USA container traffic – significantly improved in September 2023. Imports increased 17% year-over-year whilst exports increased 16% year-over-year. This was the first year-over-year gain for imports in over one year. This may be a good Christmas for retailers this year based on imports.

 

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Freight Broker Bankruptcies Loom As Debt Woes Persist
  • Lithium Cermanic Battery Could Reduce Reliance On Critical Materials
  • United States Oil ETF Is Once Again World’s Largest Oil Fund
  • Toyota’s Solid-State Battery Boasts 745 Miles On A 10 Minute Charge
  • Halliburton Q3 Earnings Rise Amid Strong Drilling Demand
  • Jamie Dimon rips central banks for being ‘100% dead wrong’ on economic forecasts
  • Bitcoin just broke above a key resistance level. Here’s what chart analysts say happens next
  • Is The 6% Fee For Selling A House About To Get Trashed?
  • Car workers’ strike costing GM $200m a week

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted October 24, 2023

October 24, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Tue Oct 24 2023
Valid 12Z Tue Oct 24 2023 – 12Z Thu Oct 26 2023

…A significant early season winter storm will bring heavy snowfall later
Tuesday through Wednesday across portions of the Northwest, Northern
Rockies, and Northern Plains…

…Heavy rainfall and some areas of flash flooding will be possible for
portions of the Southern Plains and Great Lakes…

…Much above average temperatures for much of the central and eastern
U.S. mid-week…

 

cone graphic

23 Oct 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street Opens Lower, Trades Along Unchanged Line, Finally Closing Mixed

October 23, 2023Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 191 points or 0.58%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 0.27%,
  • S&P 500 closed down 0.17%, (Low 4217)
  • Gold $1,993 down $11.60,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $86 down $2.18,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.857% down 0.067 points,
  • USD Index $105.64 down $0.520,
  • Bitcoin $31,367 up $1,521,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for October 2023

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

My favorite coincident indicator of the economy – The Chicago Fed National Activity Index three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, moved up to a neutral value in September 2023 from –0.14 in August. This means the economy expanded at its historical rate of growth. All four broad categories of indicators used to construct the
index increased, with two categories making positive contributions in September whilst the other two remained in negative territory.

 

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • How Australia Became The World’s Most Volatile Power Market
  • Rising Interest Rates Pose Challenges For Gold And Oil
  • No More Oil Hedging For Hess After $53B Chevron Acquisition
  • German Coal Plants May Have To Remain On Standby Longer Than Planned
  • Oil Prices Slide As Diplomatic Efforts Bear Fruit In Gaza
  • Bill Ackman covers bet against Treasurys, says ‘too much risk in the world’ to bet against bonds
  • Intel stock drops on report Nvidia is working on an Arm-based PC chip
  • Nasdaq snaps four days of losses as 10-year Treasury yield retreats from 5%: Live updates
  • ‘Marvel’s Spider-Man 2′ video game breaks PlayStation Studios’ 24-hour sales record
  • “Worse Is To Come” – Home Sales Slide Far From Over As Goldman Sees “Sustained Higher Mortgage Rates”

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

How the NWS Operations Center Views the Coming Winter – October 23, 2023

October 23, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

All of this was contained in the NOAA Seasonal Outlook released last Thursday and our article on that information can be accessed HERE.  But it is interesting to see what the National Weather Service (NWS) sees as the important messages from that report.

The maps in this article are the same as the maps in that prior set of information but may contain some additional detail.

I left out some information on new products to be released by the NWS as the information sent to me was marked as not for general distribution. I will be including some of the new products in my daily weather article as they become available and I am sure that the NWS will be providing additional information on these new products soon. The NWS and all of NOAA is always trying to improve the information that they provide to the public.

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted October 23, 2023

October 23, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Mon Oct 23 2023
Valid 12Z Mon Oct 23 2023 – 12Z Wed Oct 25 2023

…Heavy rain chances and flash flood potential increases across the
Southern Plains early this week…

…Some locally heavy rainfall possible for the Upper Great Lakes
Tuesday…

…Impactful snow to enter parts of the Northwest, Northern Rockies, and
northern High Plains on Tuesday…

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Mortgage Debt and Inflation: Part 4

October 22, 2023Posted inmacroeconomicsNo Comments

Note:  A major addition was added to the conclusion at 1:43 a.m. EDT on October 23, 2023.

This article concludes the analysis of the correlation patterns between Mortgage Debt and Consumer Inflation (CPI).  The last of the three types of inflation patterns (time periods with no significant inflation trends) is the subject of analysis here.  The other two types of patterns (inflation surges1 and disinflation/deflation surges2) were analyzed previously.  The conclusion discusses the correlation patterns for all time periods, looks for any common threads, and identifies important differences across time periods and types of correlation patterns.


From a photo by The Agent on Unsplash.

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted October 22, 2023

October 22, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sun Oct 22 2023
Valid 12Z Sun Oct 22 2023 – 12Z Tue Oct 24 2023

…Cool Sunday for the Northeast with a freeze possible in the Upper Ohio
Valley Monday morning…

…Much above average high temperatures continue for much of the central
and western U.S…

…Frontal system brings precipitation chances inland from the West Coast
to the Northern Rockies/Plains…

cone graphic

cone graphic