Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted November 12, 2023

November 12, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sun Nov 12 2023
Valid 12Z Sun Nov 12 2023 – 12Z Tue Nov 14 2023

…There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the southern
tip of Texas…

…Light snow will develop over portions of the Northern Cascades and
Northern Rockies on Sunday and Monday; light snow over Northern New
England on Monday…

…Temperatures will be 15 to 20 degrees above average over parts of the
Upper Midwest…

Finding Economic Justice

November 12, 2023Posted ineconomicsNo Comments

Locke abandoned the Doctrine of Economic Justice and replaced it with an analysis of the conditions that yield the justice of property rights. To which Marx, the Socialists, (and their predecessors) retorted: let us rather analyze the injustices of property rights. These are the contours within which the legal, social, economic, and political discourse has been carried out during the last few centuries. We might get out of this chasm, through an analysis in three parts. In Part I, we outline three fundamental mistakes in Marx’s analysis; in Part II, we analyze the existence and conditions of economic rights as generators of just property rights; in Part III, we complete the Theory of Economic Justice by adding the plank of Participative Justice to the two traditional planks of Distributive Justice and Commutative Justice.

Looking back at October for the United States November 11, 2023 – A Fairly Normal Month Except for the Mississippi River

November 11, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Most of the information in this report comes from the monthly email I receive from John Bateman. He does public outreach for NOAA and in particular NCEI. I could find the same information and more on the NCEI website but John produces a good summary so I use it or most of it. I also sometimes add additional information from NCEI or other NOAA websites. John Bateman sends me two emails. One on the World situation and one for the U.S.

This article is about October 2023 in the U.S.

One of the things I like to add to what John Bateman sends me is the state ranking maps. These maps show how temperature and precipitation for each state rank relative to the 129 years of what is considered to be the most reliable data we have.

 

This is the U.S.  October temperature trend.  This past October was by no means a record but it was above the trend line. It was a relief in a way as recent months have been much above trend and record breakers so the factors that were causing that may have been short-term but in any event did not show up this October.  I am unable to compare this to the world trend as it is not yet available but will be soon.

Now I will present the information provided by John Bateman with perhaps one additional graphic also from NCEI.

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted November 11, 2023

November 11, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sat Nov 11 2023
Valid 12Z Sat Nov 11 2023 – 12Z Mon Nov 13 2023

…Heavy snow for the Northern Cascades and lighter amounts over parts of
the Northern Rockies…

…Snow for the western portion of the Upper Peninsula of Michigan…

…High Wind Warning and Wind Advisory for parts of the Northern Cascades
and Northern Rockies on Saturday and Sunday…

10 Nov 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Investors Ignore Jpow’s Remarks And Send Wall Street’s Main Indexes Soaring Closing Near Session Highs

November 10, 2023Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 391 points or 1.15%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 2.05%,
  • S&P 500 closed up 1.56%, High 4,319: 4,200 = critical resistance level)
  • Gold $1,940 down $29.90,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $77 up $1.55,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.620% down 0.010 points,
  • USD Index $105.80 down $0.110,
  • Bitcoin $37,287 up 2.00%,
  • Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. -2 to 616 Canada +3 to 199

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for November 2023

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

University of Michigan consumer sentiment slipped for the fourth straight month, falling 5% in November 2023. While current and expected personal finances both improved modestly this month, the long-run economic outlook slid 12%, in part due to growing concerns about the negative effects of high-interest rates. Ongoing wars in Gaza and Ukraine weighed on many consumers as well. Overall, lower-income consumers and younger consumers exhibited the strongest declines in sentiment. In contrast, the sentiment of the top tercile of stockholders improved 10%, reflecting the recent strengthening in equity markets.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Germany To Bail Out Siemens’ Struggling Wind Turbine Division
  • Plug Power Crashes After ‘Going Concern’ Warning
  • U.S. Oil Rigs Continue To Fall
  • Maine Voters Reject State Takeover Of Private Utilities Companies
  • U.S. Space Force Partners With Elon Musk To Launch Mysterious X-37B Space Plane
  • Swedish Union Blocks Tesla Imports As Labor Dispute Escalates
  • Dow leaps nearly 400 points Friday, major averages notch a second week of gains: Live updates
  • Fed’s Mary Daly says it’s ‘too early to declare victory’ on inflation
  • Patients are lining up for $2,500 full-body MRI scans that can detect cancer early
  • Iran Warns Of ‘Inevitable Expansion’ Of War After IDF Conducts Flag-Raising Ceremony In Gaza
  • Crypto: Bitcoin could reach $150,000 in 2025 during new bull cycle, says AllianceBernstein
  • Futures Movers: Oil tallies a third straight weekly fall, pressured by demand worries and a potential supply surplus

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

NOAA Updates its ENSO Alert on November 9, 2023 – The El Nino Advisory Continues. In a Week, NOAA Will Update us on how this Impacts U.S. Weather

November 10, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

On the second Thursday of every month, NOAA (really their Climate Prediction Center CPC) issues its analysis of the status of ENSO. This includes determining the Alert System Status.  NOAA again describes their conclusion as “ENSO Alert System Status: El Nino Advisory”

There is not much doubt that we have an El Nino. How long it lasts and its strength remains to be seen. NOAA may be more conservative compared to some other Weather Advisory Organizations. That is concerning as some of the other Weather Advisory Organizations are predicting a higher probability for a “Historically Strong” El Nino.

We have included a link to an interesting ENSO Blog article by Emily Becker and a link to a fairly comprehensive article we wrote on El Nino back in September.  We have included some of the key graphics from both the Emily Becker Blog Post and the earlier article that I wrote and for those who have a strong interest in this El Nino winter, I recommend that you utilize the links to read both articles.

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER ENSO DISCUSSION

The second paragraph is what is important:

” The most recent IRI plume favors El Niño to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2024.  Based on latest forecasts, there is a greater than 55% chance of at least a “strong” El Niño (³ 1.5°C in Niño-3.4 for a seasonal average) persisting through January-March 2024.  There is a 35% chance of this event becoming “historically strong” (³ 2.0°C) for the November-January season.  Stronger El Niño events increase the likelihood of El Niño-related climate anomalies, but do not necessarily equate to strong impacts (see CPC seasonal outlooks for probabilities of temperature and precipitation).  In summary, El Niño is anticipated to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring (with a 62% chance during April-June 2024.”

Below is the middle paragraph from the discussion last month. We see that this month there is a substantial chance of a “historically strong” event.

“The most recent IRI plume favors El Niño to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2024.  Also considering recent observations and the NMME, the team favors at least a “strong” event with a 75-85% chance through November-January (≥1.5C for the seasonal average in Niño-3.4).  There is a 3 in 10 chance of a “historically strong” event that rivals 2015-16 and 1997-98 (seasonal average ≥ 2.0C).  Stronger El Niño events increase the likelihood of El Niño-related climate anomalies, but do not necessarily equate to strong impacts locally.  Consider consulting CPC seasonal outlooks for probabilities of temperature and precipitation in the coming seasons.  In summary, El Niño is anticipated to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring (with an 80% chance during March-May 2024).”

We now provide additional detail but I am keeping this article shorter than usual because nothing much has changed since last month.

CPC Probability Distribution

Here are the new forecast probabilities. The probabilities are for three-month periods e.g. OND stands for October/November/December.

Here is the current release of the probabilities:

You can clearly see the forecast does not extend beyond MJJ 2024 and one does see a tail-off in the probabilities for El Nino conditions in the Eastern Pacific after the winter season.

Here is the forecast from late last month.

The analysis this month and last month are pretty similar.

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted November 10, 2023

November 10, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Fri Nov 10 2023
Valid 12Z Fri Nov 10 2023 – 12Z Sun Nov 12 2023

…Heavy snow for the Northern Cascades and lighter amounts over parts of
the Northern Rockies…

…Snow for the western portion of the Upper Peninsula of Michigan…

…High wind watch for parts of the Northern Rockies on Saturday and
Sunday…

09 Nov 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Late Afternoon Trading Saw The Markets Plunge Sharply After Trouble In 30 Year Auction

November 9, 2023Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 220 points or 0.65%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 0.94%,
  • S&P 500 closed down 0.81%, High 4,319: 4,200 = critical resistance level)
  • Gold $1,964 up $5.70,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $76 up $0.26,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.634% up 0.126 points,
  • USD Index $105.95 up $0.350,
  • Bitcoin $36,560 up 2.64%,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for November 2023

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

In the week ending November 4, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims 4-week moving average was 212,250, an increase of 1,500 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 750 from 210,000 to 210,750.

Retailers approach October cautiously, but optimistically, adding 147,800 positions, a 3% increase from the 143,700 added in October 2022. Meanwhile, Transportation and Warehousing companies added 27% fewer workers in October than the same month last year, according to a new analysis of non-seasonally adjusted data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics by global outplacement and executive coaching firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc. Andrew Challenger, workplace and labor expert and Senior Vice President of global outplacement added:
Retailers are ramping up for the holiday season, and no doubt monitoring conditions to determine staffing ahead of the December holidays. As consumers continue to spend and interest rates hold, Retailers may be expecting solid sales and in-store foot traffic heading into Black Friday.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Still On The Auction Block, Citgo Sees 19% Jump In Q3 Net Profit
  • Egypt Can’t Ramp Up LNG Supply To Europe Due To The Hamas-Israel War
  • Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Blames Speculators For Oil Price Plunge
  • Shell Sues Greenpeace For Boarding Oil Production Vessel
  • Powell says Fed is ‘not confident’ it has done enough to bring inflation down
  • S&P 500 snaps 8-day winning streak, Dow closes 200 points lower as bond yields rise: Live updates
  • IRS announces new income tax brackets for 2024
  • SEC chair Gary Gensler says an FTX reboot could happen if it follows the law: CNBC Crypto World
  • Stocks Tumble, Yield Surge After Catastrophic 30Y Auction Stops With Biggest Tail On Record As Foreign Demand Craters
  • TaxWatch: Standard deductions for 2024 taxes will jump 5.4% due to inflation, IRS numbers show
  • Futures Movers: Oil ends higher after 2-day drop to nearly 4-month lows

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted November 9, 2023

November 9, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Thu Nov 09 2023
Valid 12Z Thu Nov 09 2023 – 12Z Sat Nov 11 2023

…Warm to record breaking temperatures from Southern Plains to
Mid-Atlantic today will give way to cooler conditions beginning tonight…

…Post-frontal showers and thunderstorms develop across Southern Plains
and Lower Mississippi Valley…

…Storm system brings rain and snow to the Northwest beginning this
afternoon…

…Critical Risk of Fires over parts of Southern California today…

08 Nov 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street Makes Wild Swings As Trading Takes On Mixed Emotions And Finally Closing Mixed

November 8, 2023Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 40 points or 0.12%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 0.08%,
  • S&P 500 closed up 0.10%,
  • Gold $1,955 down $18.30,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $76 down $1.70,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.515% down 0.056 points,
  • USD Index $105.53 down $0.01,
  • Bitcoin $35,616 down 0.51%,

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for November 2023

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

September 2023 year-over-year unadjusted sales of merchant wholesalers were down 1.7% from the revised September 2022 level (down 7.1% year-over-year inflation-adjusted). Total inventories were down 1.2% from the revised September 2022 level. The September inventories/sales ratio was 1.33 (blue line on the graph below). The September 2022 ratio was 1.36. Obviously these are not good numbers but this sector is changing and the bad numbers may have no meaning.

 

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Steel Prices Rise As Supply Tightens
  • UK Dishes Out More Sanctions On Russia’s Oil, Gold Players
  • Barclays Slashes $4 Off Brent Crude Oil Forecast For 2024
  • Beyond EVs: Dual-Ion Battery Tech Takes A Leap
  • Gold Retreats from $2,000 Mark As Economic Worries Fade
  • S&P 500 is flat Wednesday, struggles to build on longest winning streak since 2021: Live updates
  • Gambino family Mafia crackdown: 16 arrests by New York feds and Italian authorities
  • Caesars reaches deal with Las Vegas union to avoid strike
  • The Interest Rate Shock Will Blow Up The Government’s Ponzi Game
  • Rickards: Why’s The Dollar So Darn Strong?

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.