The polar vortex is acting up – January 24, 2024

January 24, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

Last month there was some concern that we were having a Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event. It seems that it did happen but in a fairly minor way and the resulting cold intrusions of Arctic air seem to have not lasted for very long. I came across this posted article on Climate.Gov attributed to Laura Cisto and Amy Butler. I am reproducing their article here except for the comments it received. You can access the article with the comments HERE. The comments are always quite interesting and the authors typically reply to those comments. And that process can continue for some time which is why I have provided the link to the Post by Laura Cisto and Amy Butler.

It is difficult reading and not everyone will want to dig into it but it is here for those with a deep interest in weather. Where I have comments, I have put them in boxes within the article. For those with an insatiable curiosity, THIS explanation of Sudden Stratospheric Warming Events will probably quench your thirst.  The blog post that I have in this article describes a recent mini-SSW event that was somewhat unusual.

 

 

To read the full article you may need to click on “Read More”.

Again, it is Trump!

Again, it is Trump!

January 24, 2024Posted inopinionNo Comments

Just like in 2016, Donald Trump may well surprise many to win the 2024 election. Two projections:

  • Trump will be the GOP nominee, thanks to MAGA.
  • Trump will defeat President Biden in November, thanks to the Independents, most of whom would choose a pathological liar over a war hawk as the lesser of two evils.

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted January 24, 2024

January 24, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the highlights from the NWS.

…Heavy rainfall and concerns for flash flooding for portions of the
Lower Mississippi Valley, Tennessee Valley and Gulf states through Friday
morning…

…A swath of freezing rain and some accumulating snowfall will impact
portions of the Midwest, Lower Great Lakes, and the Northeast…

…Much milder air with temperatures surging well above normal can be
expected through the middle of the week for much of the eastern half of
the country..

Looking out a bit farther

 

Looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full report issued today.

23 Jan 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Markets Opened Mixed, S&P 500 Almost Set New High, But Closes Short Of Mark, While The Dow Closes Moderately Down

January 23, 2024Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 96 points or 0.25%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 0.43%,
  • S&P 500 closed up 0.29%,
  • Gold $2,030 up $7.50,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $75 down $0.22,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.138% up 0.044 points,
  • USD index $103.57 up $0.24,
  • Bitcoin $39,149 down $852 (2.13%),

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – January 2024 Economic Forecast: Our Index Turns Slightly Negative

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Richmond Fed Manufacturing activity remained sluggish in January 2023. The composite manufacturing index decreased from −11 in December to −15 in January. Of its three component indexes, shipments edged up from −17 to −15, new orders edged down from −14 to −16, and employment fell notably, from −1 to −15. Manufacturing remains in a recession.

The union membership rate—the percent of wage and salary workers who were members of unions—was 10.0 percent in 2023, little changed from the previous year. The number of wage and salary workers belonging to unions, at 14.4 million, also showed little movement over the year. In 1983, the first year for which comparable data are available, the union membership rate was 20.1 percent and there were 17.7 million union workers.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • China’s Plunge Protection Team Mulls Trillion Yuan Bailout
  • China’s Surge in EV Exports to Europe Sparks Aluminum Industry Concerns
  • Oil Prices Slip as Oversupply Concerns Trump Middle East Tensions
  • Denser Texas Crude Leads U.S. Oil Production Growth
  • Halliburton Tops Q4 Earnings Estimates and Raises Dividend
  • Dow closes nearly 100 points lower to snap 3-day win streak, dragged down by weak earnings: Live updates
  • Core Scientific returns to Nasdaq as Wall Street shows renewed love for bitcoin mining
  • Bitcoin briefly falls below $39,000 as post-ETF selling pressure continues: CNBC Crypto World
  • Netflix’s stock jumps 6% on huge spike in new subscribers, surge in ad sales
  • Dow ends lower, S&P 500 closes at third record high this year as earnings season ramps up with Netflix results

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted January 23, 2024

January 23, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the highlights from the NWS.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Tue Jan 23 2024
Valid 12Z Tue Jan 23 2024 – 12Z Thu Jan 25 2024

…Heavy rainfall and concerns for flash flooding will exist through
Thursday morning across the Lower Mississippi Valley…

…A swath of freezing rain and some accumulating snowfall will impact
portions of the Midwest, Lower Great Lakes, and the Northeast…

…Much milder air with temperatures surging well above normal can be
expected by the middle of the week for much of the eastern half of the
country…

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full report issued today.

22 Jan 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Again, The Dow And S&P 500 Set New Historic Highs Entering A Bull Run As Earnings Season Ramps Up

January 22, 2024Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 138 points or 0.36%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 0.32%,
  • S&P 500 closed up 0.22%,
  • Gold $2,022 down $7.20,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $75 up $1.60,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.103% down 0.043 points,
  • USD index $103.33 up $0.05,
  • Bitcoin $40,123 down $1,504 (3.61%),

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – January 2024 Economic Forecast: Our Index Turns Slightly Negative

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. fell by 0.1 percent in December 2023 to 103.1 (2016=100), following a 0.5 percent decline in November. The LEI contracted by 2.9 percent over the six-month period between June and December 2023, a smaller decrease than its 4.3 percent contraction over the previous six months. Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board stated:

The US LEI fell slightly in December, continuing to signal underlying weakness in the US economy. Despite the overall decline, six out of ten leading indicators made positive contributions to the LEI in December. Nonetheless, these improvements were more than offset by weak conditions in manufacturing, the high interest-rate environment, and low consumer confidence. As the magnitude of monthly declines has lessened, the LEI’s six-month and twelve-month growth rates have turned upward but remain negative, continuing to signal the risk of recession ahead. Overall, we expect GDP growth to turn negative in Q2 and Q3 of 2024 but begin to recover late in the year.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Canada’s Uranium Is Fueling the World’s Nuclear Energy Boom
  • Gasoline Shipping Day Rates Triple Under Houthi Attack
  • The Strategic Implications of Iran’s Recent Missile and Drone Attacks
  • WTI Oil Soars Nearly 2.6% as Geopolitics Overtakes Fundamentals
  • Copper and Gold: Key Indicators for Predicting Economic Trends
  • Russia And Iran Finalize 20-Year Deal That Will Change The Middle East Forever
  • Sunoco to Buy NuStar Energy in $7.3 Billion Deal
  • Dow rises more than 100 points to close above 38,000 for the first time ever: Live updates
  • Spirit Airlines shares extend rebound after it appeals ruling blocking JetBlue merger
  • Terraform Labs files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in the U.S.: CNBC Crypto World
  • Bitcoin was up 155% in 2023—but should you invest? Here’s what experts say
  • Dow closes above 38,000 for first time as S&P 500 scores back-to-back records
  • 2- and 10-year Treasury yields slip from 2024 highs as Fed’s blackout period gets under way

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted January 22, 2024

January 22, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the highlights from the NWS.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Mon Jan 22 2024
Valid 12Z Mon Jan 22 2024 – 12Z Wed Jan 24 2024

…More unsettled weather expected to impact the West Coast with heavy
rain impacting California today…

…Freezing rain across the central Plains this morning is expected to
rapidly spread northeastward into the Midwest today followed by another
round of freezing rain tonight from the Midwest to the lower Great Lakes…

…Accumulating snowfall across the lower Great Lakes on Tuesday…

…A couple rounds of heavy rain will raise flooding potential across
eastern Texas today, expanding east into the lower Mississippi Valley
Tuesday into early Wednesday…
 

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full report issued today.

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted January 21, 2024

January 21, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the highlights from the NWS.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sun Jan 21 2024
Valid 12Z Sun Jan 21 2024 – 12Z Tue Jan 23 2024

…Heavy precipitation moving across California today and again on
Monday…

…Heavy rain expected to develop over southern Texas later today,
shifting east into eastern Texas and Louisiana on Monday…

…Freezing rain and sleet to impact Oklahoma and Kansas this evening,
spreading into the Midwest on Monday, following by wet snow across the
upper Midwest and into the Great Lakes by Tuesday morning…
 

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full report issued today.

Colorado River Basin January 17, 2024 Water Supply Forecast Discussion – Posted January 20, 2024

January 20, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

The mission of the National Weather Service Colorado Basin River Forecast Center (CBRFC) is to produce river, flood, and water supply forecasts for the Colorado Basin and the Great Basin in support of saving lives and property and to enhance the region’s environment and economy.

In this article, I am providing a summary of their Water Supply Forecast Discussion released on January 17, 2024.  The situation is not very good. However due to a wet winter last winter, the reservoirs are mostly in good shape. 

 

I have also included information on the current reservoir storage levels including a few that are outside of the Colorado River Basin.

The image below shows part of the area covered in the CBRFC Report.  The map shown here is only the Colorado Basin. The Eastern Great Basin is to the west of this map. The maps shown in the article cover both basins but are not as scenic as this map.

Map showing both the Colorado Basin and Eastern Great Basin.

Most of the information presented in this part of the article is from a summary report (Link) issued by the Colorado River Basin Forecast Center. January 17, 2023, Water Supply Forecast Discussion
The Colorado Basin River Forecast Center (CBRFC) geographic forecast area includes the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB), Lower Colorado River Basin (LCRB), and Eastern Great Basin (GB). It is one of many similar organizations within the National Weather Service. They are all different. In the future, I will try to pay more attention to some of the other River Forecasting Centers but they do not all go out of their way to provide reports to the Media. But the Colorado River is a special situation in a way due to the problems complying with the Colorado River Compact. But all our rivers are important.

At this time of the year,  we are hopefully adding to the snowpack for future snowmelt. Additional information is available on the Center website (click HERE), there are certain graphics that update daily. And now I provide the main part of their new forecast discussion summary. I am copying directly from their document. My comments are in boxes.

 

 

The CBRFC weather forecast is for a changing weather pattern.  For updated weather forecasts go to econcurrents.com 

and look for the most recent Short-Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks article in the list of Recent Posts.

Please click on “Read More” to read the rest of this article.