It is difficult to find a more comprehensive Weather Outlook anywhere else with the ability to get a local 10-day Forecast also.
This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.
First the highlights from the NWS.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Fri Feb 02 2024
Valid 12Z Fri Feb 02 2024 – 12Z Sun Feb 04 2024…Unsettled weather for the West Friday as heavy snow continues for the
Sierra and spreads into the Great Basin and Rockies……Widespread thunderstorms shift from the Southern Plains Friday to the
Lower Mississippi Valley/Gulf Coast on Saturday, with a threat for severe
weather and flash flooding……Mild, well above average temperatures persist across central portions
of the country through this weekend…
Looking out a bit farther and focusing on the more series events:
Above is a 72 hour animation of the forecast.
Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.
Please click on “Read More” below to access the full report issued today.
| Notices: The article on the Seasonal Outlook can be accessed HERE. What would you like to learn about? Please provide that to me via the comment section at the end of the article. |
Now more detail on the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear) (Key to surface fronts shown on maps and you will then also be able to insert a city name or zip code and get a local NWS forecast).
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here
An upper-level trough and accompanying surface frontal system will push
eastward through the Great Basin and Rockies Friday, expanding the
coverage of mountain snow and a rain/snow mix for lower elevation valleys
across the West. A secondary upper-level trough/area of low pressure off
the Pacific Northwest will also keep weather unsettled along the West
Coast. Heavy higher elevation snow is expected for many of the local
mountain ranges across the West including in California, the Great Basin,
and the Rockies, which will likely see at least a foot of new snow through
Sunday morning. Precipitation will be much lighter for most lower
elevations, and any snow that mixes in should lead to little to no
accumulations. Some heavier showers will be possible along the northern
California/southern Oregon coast where thunderstorms are expected.
Precipitation chances should come down for a period through the day
Saturday for California and the Great Basin as the system moves further to
the east while heavy snow continues in the Northern/Central Rockies.
However, the first wave of heavy precipitation associated with another
Atmospheric River may begin to impact portions of California as early as
Saturday night, and likely by Sunday morning.Gulf moisture will begin to flow northward over the Southern Plains in
advance of the approaching upper-level trough/surface frontal system
moving through the West Friday, with isolated shower and thunderstorms
during the day becoming more widespread by Friday night. Some severe
thunderstorms are possible for central Texas as cooling temperatures aloft
with the approaching trough should lead to sufficient CAPE, along with
expected strong wind shear, for some more robust updrafts. The Storm
Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) mainly for the
threat of large hail. An increasingly moist boundary layer as well as the
expectation for an organized line of storms to push eastward may also lead
to increased coverage of some heavier downpours and an isolated risk of
flash flooding. Storm chances will continue eastward into the Lower
Mississippi Valley on Saturday where a developing coastal low may help to
locally enhance storm coverage/intensity, leading to a bit higher threat
of heavier rain and flash flooding, and a Slight Risk of Excessive
Rainfall (level 2/4) is in effect. The progressive nature of the system
will bring clearing conditions through the region late Saturday
night/early Sunday morning as storm chances increase across the Southeast
and Florida.An amplified upper-level ridge over the central U.S. will keep high
temperatures mild and above average Friday and Saturday, particularly for
portions of the Plains and the Midwest. Forecast highs range from the 30s
and 40s for the Northeast and the Great Lakes, the 40s and 50s for the
Northern Plains and the Ohio Valley, the 50s and 60s for the Central
Plains and Carolinas, and the 60s and 70s for the Southern Plains and
Southeast. Highs will remain cooler than average to the west under the
influence of the upper-level trough, with highs mainly in the 40s for the
Great Basin, 50s for the Pacific Northwest and northern California, and
60s for the Desert Southwest and southern California.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Ski SnowReports
New Feature – Ski Reports. It is difficult to find reports that auto-update on-screen (and they are very long) but these links will get you to them – If you have additional suggestions make them in the comments section after every Econcurrents Article and we may add those links. We will try to not have too much overlap as that can add to the confusion.
Snow Forecasts. And remember this shows natural snow. Ski resorts also make their own snow.
Day 1
Day 2
Additional snow information can be found here, here, here, and here. The second link provides animations.
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6–
10
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| 8–
14 |
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| 3–
4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast [that website is has been intermittant so be patient]
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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