04Dec2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Markets Modestly Down. Bitcoin Surges.
Summary Of the Markets Today:
- The Dow closed down 41 points or 0.11%,
- Nasdaq closed down 0.84%,
- S&P 500 closed down 0.54%,
- Gold $2048 down $42,
- WTI crude oil settled at $73 down $0.76,
- 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.261% up 0.037 points,
- USD index $103.64 up $0.37,
- Bitcoin $41,882 up $1,796
Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – December 2023 Economic Forecast: Economy Is Likely To Decelerate
Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:
New orders for manufactured goods in October 2023 are down 1.4% year-over-year (blue line on the graph below). This compares favorably with the Federal Reserve’s manufacturing data which has manufacturing down 1.7% year-over-year (green line on the graph below). Manufacturing remains in a recession in the U.S.
Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:
- Why Diesel Usually Costs More Than Gasoline
- The Minerals That China, the EU, and the US Deem Critical to National Security
- Is This The Technical Limit for Refilling the Strategic Petroleum Reserve?
- How China And The U.S. Were Both Key To OPEC+’s Bearish Oil Supply Cuts
- COP28 President: There Is ‘No Science’ Behind Calls for Fossil Fuel Phase-Out
- Swiss bank Banque Pictet admits hiding $5.6 billion of Americans’ money from IRS
- White House says U.S. funding about to run out; Ukraine to probe apparent shooting of two unarmed soldiers by Russian forces
- Regulators Hope You Don’t Notice The Massive Hidden Losses In The Banking System
- Nvidia Insiders File Paperwork To Dump 370,000 Shares
Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.
Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted December 4, 2023
This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.
We start with the U.S. Information. That is the longest part of the article. Then we have a short section on World Weather and then we address the Tropics. When there are tropical storms that might impact the U.S. we provide more detailed information which updates frequently on those storms.
Please click on “Read More” below to access the full report as I have moved the highlights into the body of the report where it is followed by the Today, Tomorrow and the Next Day maps and a lot more. I will try to feature the most important graphic in the lede paragraph on the home page. But there are often multiple maps that are very important so it is best to read the full article. We now have a snow report and it is possible to get a ten-day NWS forecast for the zip code of your choice.
Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted December 3, 2023
This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.
We start with the U.S. Information. That is the longest part of the article. Then we have a short section on World Weather and then we address the Tropics. When there are tropical storms that might impact the U.S. we provide more detailed information which updates frequently on those storms.
Please click on “Read More” below to access the full report as I have moved the highlights into the body of the report where it is followed by the Today, Tomorrow and the Next Day maps and a lot more. I will try to feature the most important graphic in the lede paragraph on the home page. But there are often multiple maps that are very important so it is best to read the full article. We now have a snow report and it is possible to get a ten-day NWS forecast for the zip code of your choice.
Adventures with 3 Coin Flips. Part 5: Identifying and Counting Outcomes
This article describes the process of identifying all possible outcomes when there are 8 trials of 3 coin flips each. Then, the outcomes are divided into types, and the number of outcomes for each type is determined.
NCA5: Drought and Climate Change in 10 Maps – December 2, 2023
I am just providing a report from NCA5. I am providing the full report but you can access it HERE and then there will be live links that you can click on for additional information. There is a lot more in that report than these 10 Maps but they feature these 10 Maps as sort of a summary of the key points in that report. I have added some comments to each map to perhaps help interpret these 10 Maps but I have not read the full report so I may not understand enough to fully interpret them. But I will do my best. It appears to me that this set of 10 maps is intended to entice people to read the chapter or chapters where the material is presented in more depth.
Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted December 2, 2023
This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.
We start with the U.S. Information. That is the longest part of the article. Then we have a short section on World Weather and then we address the Tropics. When there are tropical storms that might impact the U.S. we provide more detailed information which updates frequently on those storms.
Please click on “Read More” below to access the full report as I have moved the highlights into the body of the report where it is followed by the Today, Tomorrow and the Next Day maps and a lot more. I will try to feature the most important graphic in the lede paragraph on the home page. But there are often multiple maps that are very important so it is best to read the full article. We now have a snow report and it is possible to get a ten-day NWS forecast for the zip code of your choice.
01 Dec 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Another Strong Session For The Dow Closing Up 295 Points
Summary Of the Markets Today:
- The Dow closed up 294 points or 0.82%,
- Nasdaq closed up 0.55%,
- S&P 500 closed up 0.59%,
- Gold $2,090 up $32.80,
- WTI crude oil settled at $74 down $1.72,
- 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.217% down 0.135 points,
- USD Index $103.22 down $0.280,
- Bitcoin $38,804 up $1,079 ( 2.86% ),
- Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count up 3 to 625
*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.
Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – December 2023 Economic Forecast: Economy Is Likely To Decelerate
Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:
Construction spending during October 2023 was 10.7% above October 2022 (10.0% inflation-adjusted). During the first ten months of this year, construction spending was 5.6% above the same period in 2022. Construction definitely is in a growth spurt.
The ISM Manufacturing PMI® registered 46.7% in November 2021, unchanged from the 46.7% recorded in October. A Manufacturing PMI® above 48.7 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. The New Orders Index remained in contraction territory at 48.3%.
Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:
- U.S. Adds Three More Shippers to Russian Sanction List over Oil Price Cap
- U.S. Oil Drillers See More Gains As OPEC+ Agrees to Cut Production
- Guyana on Edge Amid Rumors of a Venezuelan Invasion
- Oil Markets Confused and Underwhelmed by OPEC+ Cuts
- Fed Chair Powell calls talk of cutting rates ‘premature’ and says more hikes could happen
- S&P 500 rises on Friday to close at 2023 high: Live updates
- Bitcoin hits highest level since May 2022 to kick off December: CNBC Crypto World
- Market Snapshot: Dow tops 36,000 after remarks by Fed’s Powell, S&P 500 heads for highest close of 2023
- Futures Movers: Oil prices settle at a 2-week low as OPEC+ decision disappoints
Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.
NOAA Updates its December 2023 Weather Outlook on November 30, 2023 – There have been some significant changes from the Mid-Month Outlook.
Slightly modified at 6 pm EST December 1, 2023, to add additional clarity to the author’s comments.
At the end of every month, NOAA updates its Outlook for the following month which in this case is December of 2023. We are reporting on that tonight.
There have been some significant changes in the Outlook for December and these are addressed in the NOAA Discussion so it is well worth reading. We provided the prior Mid-Month Outlook for December for comparison. It is easy to see the changes by comparing the Mid-Month and Updated Maps.
The article includes the Drought Outlook for December. NOAA also adjusted the previously issued Seasonal Drought Outlook to reflect the changes in the December Drought Outlook. We have included a map showing the water-year-to-date precipitation. We also provide the Week 2/3 Tropical Outlook for the World.
The best way to understand the updated outlook for December is to view the maps and read the NOAA discussion. I have highlighted the key statements in the NOAA Discussion.
I am going to start with graphics that show the updated Outlook for December and the Mid-Month Outlook for December. This is followed by a graphic that shows both the Updated Outlook for December and the three-month outlook DJF 2023 – 2024. So you get the full picture in three graphics.
Here is the updated Outlook for December 2023
For Comparison Purposes, Here is the Mid-Month Outlook for December.
| There have been some significant changes especially related to Temperature. Remember, it is the top set of maps that are the current outlook for December. We are not sure that NOAA (actually their CPC Divison) has moved the storm track sufficiently south given the strength of this El Nino as measured by the Nino 3.4 Index. But it takes time for the impacts of an El Nino to be fully felt and there are conflicting factors. The sample size of very strong El Nino’s is very small so this complicates the forecasting process. The probability that his El Nino will record as being historically strong is less than 50% but well above zero. The atmosphere has not responded to the extent one might expect by just looking at the Nino 3.4 Index. The El Ninos with the highest level of the Nino 3.4 Index are not always the wettest but sometimes are. So we are dealing with a fair amount of uncertainty. You can track the changes in our Daily Weather Article. |
Combination of the Updated Outlook for December and the Three-Month Outlook
The top row is the Updated Outlook for the new month. There is a temperature map and a precipitation map. The second row is a three-month outlook that includes the new month. I think the outlook maps are self-explanatory. What is important to remember is that they show deviations from the current definition of normal which is the period 1991 through 2020. So this is not a forecast of the absolute value of temperature or precipitation but the change from what is defined as normal or to use the technical term climatology. The three-month map was issued on November 16, 2023.
Some readers may need to click “Read More” to read the rest of the article. Some will feel that they have enough information. But there is a lot more information in the rest of this article.