NOAA Updates its February 2024 Weather Outlook – Substantially Different from the Mid-Month Outlook – February 1, 2024

February 1, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

At the end of every month, NOAA updates its Outlook for the following month which in this case is February of 2024. We are reporting on that tonight.

There have been some significant changes in the Outlook for February and these are addressed in the NOAA Discussion so it is well worth reading.  We provided the prior Mid-Month Outlook for February  for comparison. It is easy to see the changes by comparing the Mid-Month and Updated Maps.

The article includes the Drought Outlook for February. NOAA also adjusted the previously issued Seasonal (FMA) Drought Outlook to reflect the changes in the February Drought Outlook. We have included a map showing the amount of water in the snowpack waiting to be released in the Spring. We also provide the Week 2/3 Tropical Outlook for the World.  We also include a very interesting CLIMAS Podcast.

The best way to understand the updated outlook for February is to view the maps and read the NOAA discussion. I have highlighted the key statements in the NOAA Discussion.

I am going to start with graphics that show the updated Outlook for December and the Mid-Month Outlook for February. This is followed by a graphic that shows both the Updated Outlook for February and the three-month outlook for FMA 2024. So you get the full picture in three graphics.

Here is the updated Outlook for February 2024.

For Comparison Purposes, Here is the earlier Mid-Month Outlook for February.

 

There have been some significant changes especially related to precipitation. Remember, it is the top set of maps that are the current outlook for February. When the Mid-month Outlook was issued we were not sure that it and the FMA map agreed with the discussion. It is a huge change. You can track the actual weather and updates of the outlook in our Daily Weather Article.

Combination of the Updated Outlook for February and the Three-Month Outlook

The top row is the Updated Outlook for the new month. There is a temperature map and a precipitation map. The second row is a three-month outlook that includes the new month. I think the outlook maps are self-explanatory. What is important to remember is that they show deviations from the current definition of normal which is the period 1991 through 2020.  So this is not a forecast of the absolute value of temperature or precipitation but the change from what is defined as normal or to use the technical term climatology.
The three-month map was issued on January 18, 2024.  One expects some changes  13 days later. But the change to the precipitation map is very dramatic. Thus to some extent, I question the reliability of the FMA three-month map.  As an example look at Arizona and New Mexico. Assuming February turns out as shown, imagine how dry March and April would have to be for the three-month map to be accurate. The same goes for the North Central Temperature Map. We have to take into consideration what wetter than normal means in different months.  For Arizona and New Mexico February tends to be dry so wetter than normal may not be much in terms of inches of precipitation.
Some readers may need to click “Read More” to read the rest of the article.  Some will feel that they have enough information. But there is a lot more information in the rest of this article.

Today Through the Fourth Friday (22 to 28 days) Weather Outlook for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted February 1, 2024

February 1, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

It is difficult to find a more comprehensive Weather Outlook anywhere else with the ability to get a local 10-day Forecast also.

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the highlights from the NWS.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Thu Feb 01 2024
Valid 12Z Thu Feb 01 2024 – 12Z Sat Feb 03 2024

…Heavy snow over parts of the Sierra Nevada Mountains, light to moderate
snow over Lower Great Lakes/Northern New England, light snow over the
higher elevations of the West…

…There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of Southern
California on Thursday…

…Temperatures will be 15 to 25 degrees above average from the Plains to
the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley…

Looking out a bit farther and focusing on the more series events:

 

Looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. This evening we are looking at precipitation and the baseline here is such that it will tend to show warmer than baseline-normal precipitation due to the trend in temperatures.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full report issued today.

31 Jan 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Small Caps Gap Sharply Down At The Opening Bell While The Dow Marks Another Historic High Until The Feds Announcement Sends The Markets Into A Nose Dive Closing At Session Lows

January 31, 2024Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 317 points or 0.82%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 2.23%,
  • S&P 500 closed down 1.61%,
  • Gold $2,053 up $1.40,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $76 down $2.03,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.943% down 0.003 points,
  • USD index $103.63 up $0.23,
  • Bitcoin $42,501 down $1,100 (2.52%),

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – February 2024 Economic Forecast: Index Again Modestly Declined But Remains Well Above Levels Associated With Recession

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

According to ADP, private employers added 107,000 jobs in January 2023 and annual pay was up 5.2 percent year-over-year.. The hiring slowdown of 2023 spilled into January, and pressure on wages continues to ease. The pay premium for job-switchers shrank to a new low last month. ADP has not been a great predictor of BLS jobs growth but honestly I would not bet the farm that any of the data is that accurate. 107,000 jobs growth is not excellent.

The Chicago Business Barometer unexpectedly contracted at an accelerated rate in the month of January 2023. The Chicago business barometer slipped to 46.0 in January from an upwardly revised 47.2 in December, with a reading below 50 indicating a contraction. Another confirmation that manufacturing continues in a recession.

The following statement was issued by the Federal Reserve’s FOMC regarding the Federal Funds Rate: [The bottom line is that the FOMC is saying they will not cut the federal funds rate until they are sure that the inflation rate will reach 2%. IMO, the data is currently showing upward inflation pressures.]

In support of its goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 5-1/4 to 5-1/2 percent. In considering any adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The Committee does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent. In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities, as described in its previously announced plans. The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • The U.S. and Europe Are Rushing To Boost Domestic Uranium Production
  • Lithium Producer Sigma Hikes its Brazilian Resource Estimate by 27%
  • Only 13 EVs Will Be Eligible for U.S. Tax Credits This Year
  • Oil Ticks Lower on Crude Build
  • Qatar Awards $6 Billion Worth of Deals to Boost Output from Its Top Oilfield
  • Fed Chief Jerome Powell says a March rate cut is not likely
  • Dow closes 300 points lower, Nasdaq drops 2% after Fed indicates March rate cut unlikely: Live updates
  • Wall Street punishes Alphabet and Microsoft despite earnings beats after stocks hit record
  • Meta’s continued rally could hinge on the fortunes of upstart retailers Temu and Shein
  • 10-year Treasury yield hovers around 4% as traders evaluate Fed decision
  • Boeing chief admits ‘serious challenge’ ahead
  • Fed holds interest rates at a 23-year high

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted January 31, 2024

January 31, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the highlights from the NWS.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Wed Jan 31 2024
Valid 12Z Wed Jan 31 2024 – 12Z Fri Feb 02 2024

…Heavy snow over parts of the Sierra Nevada Mountains, moderate snow
over Upstate New York/Northern New England, light snow over the higher
elevations of the West…

…There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of Northern/
Central California on Wednesday and Southern California on Thursday…

…Temperatures will be 15 to 30 degrees above average from the Plains to
the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley…

Looking out a bit farther and focusing on the more series events:

 

Looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. This evening we are looking at precipitation and the baseline here is such that it will tend to show warmer than baseline-normal precipitation due to the trend in temperatures.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full report issued today.

30 Jan 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Nasdaq Takes A Waterfall Dive At The Opening Bell While The Dow And S&P 500 Make New Highs Then Closing Mixed

January 30, 2024Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 134 points or 0.35%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 0.76%,
  • S&P 500 closed up 0.06%,
  • Gold $2,054 up $9.60,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $78 up $1.11,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.045% down 0.046 points,
  • USD index $103.41 down $0.02,
  • Bitcoin $43,560 up $477 (1.11%),

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – February 2024 Economic Forecast: Index Again Modestly Declined But Remains Well Above Levels Associated With Recession

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price 20-City Composite posted a year-over-year increase of 5.4%, up from a 4.9% increase in the previous month. CoreLogic Chief Economist Dr. Selma Hepp stated;

The CoreLogic S&P Case-Shiller Index continued to press higher with home prices increasing by 5.1% year over year in November. Surging mortgage rates in late 2023 started to impact prices in November which declined from the month before, down 0.2% – in contrast to a slight increase seen prior to the pandemic at this time of the year. That suggests pivoting of annual gains over the next few months. Still, home price gains remained resilient in many affordable markets (Detroit) as well as areas with warmer weather and outdoor amenities (Miami and Tampa) – something households seek in winter months. More recent decline in mortgage rates along with continued imbalance between pent-up demand and lacking supply suggest home prices will continue to rise in 2024.

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index rose in January to 114.8 (1985=100), up from a revised 108.0 in December. The reading was the highest since December 2021, and marked the third straight monthly increase. Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board stated:

January’s increase in consumer confidence likely reflected slower inflation, anticipation of lower interest rates ahead, and generally favorable employment conditions as companies continue to hoard labor. The gain was seen across all age groups, but largest for consumers 55 and over. Likewise, confidence improved for all income groups except the very top; only households earning $125,000+ saw a slight dip. January’s write-in responses revealed that consumers remain concerned about rising prices although inflation expectations fell to a three-year low. Buying plans dipped in January, but consumers continued to rate their income and personal finances favorably currently and over the next six months. Consumers’ Perceived Likelihood of a US Recession over the Next 12 Months continued to gradually ease in January, consistent with an Expectations Index rising above 80.

The number of job openings changed little at 9.0 million on the last business day of December. Over the month, the number of hires and total separations were little changed at 5.6 million and 5.4 million, respectively. We should expect little upward pressure on job growth based on current correlations.

 

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • BP Taps Cutting-Edge 4D Seismic Tech to Survey Azerbaijani Oil Field
  • Volkswagen Still Seeking Investor for Battery Unit Despite Slower EV Growth
  • Tesla Battles to Maintain Market Share in Growing EV Industry
  • Economic Concerns and a Strong Supply Outlook Hold Oil Prices Back
  • Global Oil Demand Remains Robust Despite Bearish Sentiment
  • Trans Mountain Pipeline Hits Yet Another Delay
  • Launch of new ETFs may not affect bitcoin the same way they did gold, Citi says. Here’s why
  • PayPal will cut about 2,500 jobs, or 9% of global workforce
  • UPS announces 12,000 job cuts, says package volume slipped last quarter
  • Sky to cut 1,000 jobs in move towards digital
  • Number of companies going bust hits 30-year high
  • Treasury yields hold steady ahead of Wednesday’s Fed interest-rate policy update

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted January 30, 2024

January 30, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the highlights from the NWS.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Tue Jan 30 2024
Valid 12Z Tue Jan 30 2024 – 12Z Thu Feb 01 2024

…Heavy snow over parts of the Sierra Nevada Mountains on Wednesday…

…There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of Northern/
Central California…

…Snow over parts of the Great Lakes/Central Appalachians into the
Northeast…
 

Looking out a bit farther and focusing on the more series events:

 

Looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. This evening we are looking at precipitation and the baseline here is such that it will tend to show warmer than baseline-normal precipitation due to the trend in temperatures.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full report issued today.

29 Jan 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: New Historic Highs For The Dow And The S&P 500, Both Closing At Session Highs

January 29, 2024Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 224 points or 0.59%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 1.12%,
  • S&P 500 closed up 0.76%,
  • Gold $2,032 up $13.10,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $77 down $1.06,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.080% down 0.008 points,
  • USD index $103.50 up $0.06,
  • Bitcoin $43,090 up $1,135 (2.70%),

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – February 2024 Economic Forecast: Index Again Modestly Declined But Remains Well Above Levels Associated With Recession

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Dallas Fed Manufacturing activity contracted in January 2023 after stabilizing in December, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, dropped 17 points to -15.4—its lowest reading since mid-2020. Manufacturing remains in a recession in the U.S. – and most Fed regional surveys show contraction in January.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • New Sanctions on Venezuela Oil Likely As Maduro Bans Opposition
  • Russia Throws Caution to the Wind to Boost Oil Exports
  • U.S. Prices At the Pump Climb After Cold Spell Shutdowns
  • Shale Boom Fuels Third Year of Record U.S. Gas Output
  • Spending on Natural Gas to Top $1 Trillion Over the Next Decade
  • etail return fraud is rising as key holiday deadline approaches
  • S&P 500 rises to close at fresh record Monday as Big Tech earnings loom: Live updates
  • Reed Hastings sells $1.1 billion in Netflix shares
  • Bitcoin reclaims $43,000 as the cryptocurrency extends recent gains: CNBC Crypto World
  • The 15 most expensive U.S. neighborhoods per square foot—No. 1 is 2,000% higher than average
  • Ryanair cuts profit forecast after online travel agent row
  • Dow scores 6th record close of 2024, bolstered by Treasury funding update in pivotal week for markets

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

February 2024 Economic Forecast: Index Again Modestly Declined But Remains Well Above Levels Associated With Recession

January 29, 2024Posted inUncategorizedNo Comments

Authored by Steven Hansen

EconCurrent‘s Economic Index again declined and continues slightly in negative territory. Being slightly in negative territory is not necessarily indicative of a recession, and we continue to believe a recession is not imminent. There remain four major indicators signaling a recession.  Read on to understand the currents affecting our economic growth.

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted January 29, 2024

January 29, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the highlights from the NWS.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Mon Jan 29 2024
Valid 12Z Mon Jan 29 2024 – 12Z Wed Jan 31 2024

…Light snow over parts of the Great Lakes and the Central Appalachians…

…Light rain over parts of the Pacific Northwest and Northern
California…

…Temperatures will be 10 to 20 degrees above average over parts of the
Northern/Central Plains into the Upper Midwest…

Looking out a bit farther and focusing on the more series events:

 

Looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. This evening we are looking at precipitation and the baseline here is such that it will tend to show warmer than baseline-normal precipitation due to the trend in temperatures.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full report issued today.