Today Through the Fourth Friday (22 to 28 days) Weather Outlook for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted February 21, 2024

February 21, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

It is difficult to find a more comprehensive Weather Outlook anywhere else with the ability to get a local 10-day Forecast also.

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon update can be found here if I have not updated it.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Wed Feb 21 2024
Valid 12Z Wed Feb 21 2024 – 12Z Fri Feb 23 2024

…Rain and snow impacts across California come to an end today…

…Above average temperatures across the lower 48 into late week…

…Critical Fire Weather day over portions of the Southern High Plains on
Wednesday…

Rain and snow showers will gradually weaken across the state of California
today before coming to an end tonight. In the meantime, snow showers will
produce 6-12 inches of new snow for the Intermountain West and Central
Rockies. Surface cyclogenesis over the lee of the Rockies will support
strong west/southwesterly winds carrying dry air out of the Southwest and
into the Southern High Plains this afternoon. Thus, the Storm Prediction
Center issued a Critical Risk of Fire Weather over portions of
southeastern New Mexico into far western Texas.

The upper-level trough responsible for the unsettled weather in the West
will quickly move across the Rockies today and into the Plains by
Thursday. This will spawn a low pressure system over the Central/Southern
Plains which will tap some moisture from the Gulf of Mexico as it moves
across the Mississippi Valley. This interaction will produce rain showers
and scattered thunderstorms across the Midwest/Ohio Valley on Thursday.

Meanwhile, an upper ridge will generate temperatures that are well above
average across the Plains and Mississippi Valley today. Temperatures will
be anywhere from 20-30 degrees above average in these areas. Southerly
flow will send mild temperatures streaming into the East Coast on Thursday
ahead of the approaching low pressures system. The Florida peninsula will
remain below average temperature-wise through the end of the week.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Above is a 72 hour animation of the forecast. Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full report issued today.

20Feb2024 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Another Down Day As Nvidia Drags On the Markets

February 20, 2024Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 64 points or 0.17%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 0.92%,
  • S&P 500 closed up 0.60%,
  • Gold $2036 up $12.00,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $78 down $0.92,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.275% down 0.02 points,
  • USD index $104.08 down $0.21,
  • Bitcoin $52,136 up $350

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – February 2024 Economic Forecast: Index Again Modestly Declined But Remains Well Above Levels Associated With Recession

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. fell by 0.4 percent in January 2024 to 102.7 (2016=100), following a 0.2 percent decline in December 2023. Even so, The Conference Board is no longer forecasting a recession ahead.  Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board stated:

The U.S. LEI fell further in January, as weekly hours worked in manufacturing continued to decline and the yield spread remained negative. While the declining LEI continues to signal headwinds to economic activity, for the first time in the past two years, six out of its ten components were positive contributors over the past six-month period (ending in January 2024). As a result, the leading index currently does not signal recession ahead. While no longer forecasting a recession in 2024, we do expect real GDP growth to slow to near zero percent over Q2 and Q3.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Precious Metal Investors Face Continued Turbulence
  • Ghana LNG Import Terminal Nearing Finish Line—and None Too Soon
  • A Look Inside Iran’s Shadowy ‘Axis of Resistance’
  • Large Crude Carriers See 3-Month High Day Rates on Red Sea Attacks
  • Gold Hydrogen Could Be A Game-Changer for Energy Markets
  • Carbon Nitride: A Breakthrough in Material Science
  • Biden to Okay Year-Round Sales of Higher-Ethanol Gasoline From 2025
  • IRS aims to close ‘inequity gap’ for unpaid taxes. How the agency targets top earners for audit

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Looking Back at Weather for the U.S. and World in January 2024 Posted on February 20, 2024

February 20, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

Much of the information in this report comes from the monthly emails I receive from John Bateman. He does public outreach for NOAA and in particular NCEI. I could find the same information and more on the NCEI website but John Bateman produces a good summary so I use it or most of it. I also usually add additional information from NCEI or other NOAA websites. The full NCEI report can be accessed HERE.

Arctic air mass brought bitter cold and snow to much of the nation in mid-January
Powerful storms brought heavy rainfall and flooding to parts of the southern Plains

                                                                                           Contact
                                                                                                John Bateman, john.jones-bateman@noaa.gov, 202-424-0929

                                                                                           February 8, 2024

                                                                                             

                                                                                          Earth had another record-warm month
                                                                                         It was also the second-wettest January on record Contact
                                                                                              John Bateman, john.jones-bateman@noaa.gov, 202-424-0929

                                                                                         February 14, 2024

 

I start with the U.S. Key Points

  • The arctic air mass from January 14–18 broke nearly 2,500 daily minimum temperatures county records from the Northwest to the Lower Mississippi Valley.

  • On January 22–25, heavy rainfall brought more than a month’s worth of rain and life-threatening flooding to parts of Texas and Louisiana.

  • January 2024 was the 10th-wettest January on record for the nation, and temperature ranked in the middle third of the historical record for the month.

And then the Global Key Points

  • Temperatures were above average over much of the globe, but the eastern United States, most of Europe and a few other areas were cooler than average.

  • There is a 22% chance that 2024 will be the warmest year in NOAA’s 175-year record and a 79% chance that El Niño will transition to neutral conditions by mid-year.

  • Northern Hemisphere snow cover was near average, but Antarctic sea ice extent was fifth lowest on record for January.

  • Global precipitation was nearly record-high in January, following on the heels of a record-wet December.

I added the below to what John Bateman provided.

 

January 2024 was a busy month

 

 

–

This is the temperature trend for CONUS. There was a decrease for January in 2024

–

 

The temperature for the world, land and water hit a new record, but when looking at land alone it was not a new record.

To read the rest of this article some will have to click on “Read More”.

Today Through the Fourth Friday (22 to 28 days) Weather Outlook for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted February 20, 2024

February 20, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

It is difficult to find a more comprehensive Weather Outlook anywhere else with the ability to get a local 10-day Forecast also.

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon update can be found here if I have not updated it.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Tue Feb 20 2024
Valid 12Z Tue Feb 20 2024 – 12Z Thu Feb 22 2024

…Heavy rain and heavy mountain snow in California are expected to become
less intense…

…A Moderate Risk of Excessive Rainfall remains in effect along portions
of coastal southern California today…

…Warming trend expected to expand from the Great Plains into the Midwest
through midweek…

Heavy rain, snow, high winds and thunderstorm impacts will gradually
diminish across California today, as the upper trough supporting them
pushes farther inland. A quasi-stationary front will be the focus for
additional heavy rainfall over southern California today. A Moderate Risk
of Excessive Rainfall leading to Flash Flooding (level 3/4) is in effect
for portions of Los Angeles and Orange Counties where between 1-3 inches
of rain are possible. Higher totals are expected along the immediate coast
and favored terrain of the Transverse Ranges. A broader Slight Risk area
(level 2/4) is in effect from Humboldt County down to San Diego, as well
as the Sacramento Valley and adjacent upslope areas of the Sierra.
Additional accumulations of 6-12 inches of snow are expected for the
Sierra, while 1-2 feet are likely over the Shasta Siskiyous today.
Persistent troughing and upsloping will support moderate to heavy snow
over the Intermountain West where generally between 6-12 inches of snow
can be expected. This snowfall is likely to continue into Wednesday and
expand in coverage into the Central Rockies.

Elsewhere, the ongoing warming trend is expected to continue across the
Great Plains and Mississippi Valley through Wednesday before moderating a
bit and resurging once again heading into the weekend. High temperatures
will be 15-25 degrees above average today and Wednesday over the Great
Plains and Mississippi Valley while mild air shift slowly into the Midwest
and East Coast. The Florida Peninsula will remain below average
temperature-wise due to a deepening upper trough in the western Atlantic.
A developing low pressure system will bring showers and thunderstorms to
the Midwest on Thursday.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Above is a 72 hour animation of the forecast. Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full report issued today.

19 Feb 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street’s Markets Closed For President’s Day Holiday

February 19, 2024Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • Gold $2,094 up $5.30,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $79 up $0.10,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.281% up 0.100 points,
  • USD index $104.25 down $0.04,
  • Bitcoin $51,879 up $115 (0.22%),

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – February 2024 Economic Forecast: Index Again Modestly Declined But Remains Well Above Levels Associated With Recession

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

None

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Russian Rosneft Posts Nearly 50% Surge in Profits for 2023
  • Equinor Signs 15-Year LNG Supply Deal With Indian Firm
  • Crew Abandons Cargo Ship After Houthi Attack
  • Ukrainian Drone Attacks Drag Russia’s Refining Rates Down by 380,000 Bpd
  • ‘China has a lot more to lose’: U.S. considering sanctioning Chinese firms aiding Russia’s war
  • Let’s accept it: The Fed’s rate hikes did little to slow this roaring economy
  • Nintendo shares fall nearly 6% after report that the Switch 2 will be delayed until 2025
  • War Expands With Massive Israeli Airstrikes 60km Deep Into Lebanon
  • Israel’s economy shrinks more than expected on Gaza war

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Today Through the Fourth Friday (22 to 28 days) Weather Outlook for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted February 19, 2024

February 19, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

It is difficult to find a more comprehensive Weather Outlook anywhere else with the ability to get a local 10-day Forecast also.

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon update can be found here if I have not updated it.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
251 AM EST Mon Feb 19 2024

Valid 12Z Mon Feb 19 2024 – 12Z Wed Feb 21 2024

…There’s a Moderate risk of excessive rainfall along coastal southern
California today…

…Heavy Snow likely over Sierra Nevada and Shasta Siskiyous in
California…

…Warming trend expected to expand across the Great Plains through
midweek…

A potent upper-level low will continue directing subtropical moisture over
much of California today. Heavy coastal and low elevation rain,
thunderstorms, heavy mountain snow and high winds are all expected from
this Atmospheric River event. Excessive Rainfall leading to Flash Flooding
is possible for much of the state today. A Slight Risk of Excessive
Rainfall (level 2/4) is in effect from Humboldt to Orange County as well
as over parts of the Sacramento Valley and along upslope portions of the
Sierra. A Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms is in effect for parts of
the Sacramento Valley where an isolated tornado will be possible. A
targeted Moderate Risk of Excessive Rainfall is in effect for Santa
Barbara and Ventura where heavy rainfall will focus, especially over
elevated terrain. Heavy Snow will blanket the Sierra Nevada and Shasta
Siskiyous today as well, with those mountains forecast to receive 1-3 feet
(isolated higher) of snow by Tuesday morning.

The moisture feed into California will weaken considerably and sag south
on Tuesday, but the threat of Flash Flooding will persist across southern
California, in particular. Upslope flow into the Transverse ranges will
support a renewed threat of Flash Flooding. A Slight Risk of Excessive
Rainfall is in effect from Humboldt down through San Diego County on
Tuesday mainly due to sensitive soils from today’s heavy rain. Up to a
foot of additional snow accumulations with locally higher amounts are
possible over the Sierra and Shasta Siskiyous on Tuesday. Damaging wind
gusts should continue into Wednesday morning before gradually weakening.

Elsewhere, lake effect snow will come to an end this afternoon across the
Lower Great Lakes. Upper level ridging with embedded shortwave energy will
support a warming trend acrosss the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley
through midweek when anomalous temperatures are expected to reach their
peak for the week. High temperatures will be between 15-25 degrees above
average by Wednesday over much of the central U.S..

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Above is a 72 hour animation of the forecast. Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full report issued today.

Today Through the Fourth Friday (22 to 28 days) Weather Outlook for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted February 18, 2024

February 18, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

It is difficult to find a more comprehensive Weather Outlook anywhere else with the ability to get a local 10-day Forecast also.

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon update can be found here if I have not updated it.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sun Feb 18 2024
Valid 12Z Sun Feb 18 2024 – 12Z Tue Feb 20 2024

…There’s a Moderate Risk of Excessive Rainfall leading to Flash Flooding
over portions of Southern California…

…Heavy Snow likely over Sierra Nevada and Shasta Siskiyous…

…Warming trend continues across Central U.S. through midweek…

A closed upper-level low will direct a plume of subtropical moisture into
California over the next few days. A low pressure system at the surface
will focus the moisture along its attendant surface fronts as it makes
it’s way into the state. Heavy Rainfall is expected for the coastal areas
as well as much of the inland valleys of northern/central California and
into the windward foothills of the Sierra beginning this evening. Some
instability will work it’s way into portions of southern California
tonight and continue into Monday morning, which will lead to the chance
for thunderstorms and increased rain rates. Thus, a Moderate Risk of
Excessive Rainfall leading to Flash Flooding (level 3/4) is in effect for
portions of Santa Barbara County tonight and expanding into Ventura on
Monday as the heavy rain drifts southward along a cold front. Slight Risks
(level 2/4) are in effect for Humboldt down to Ventura today and then
expanding down to Orange through Tuesday.

Meanwhile, heavy snow will develop over the Sierra and Shasta Siskiyous
tonight. This snowfall is expected to continue into Tuesday when the
Pacific moisture feed is likely to end. Between 2-4 feet of snow are
forecast for the Sierra and Shasta by Tuesday morning with locally higher
amounts possible. Elsewhere, a stalled out surface front will focus
showers and thunderstorms across the Florida Peninsula today. A stripe of
1-2 inches of rain is probable across central/southern portions of the
peninsula. Lake effect snow showers continue downwind of the Great Lakes
through Sunday night. An upper ridge with embedded shortwave energy will
support a warming trend across the Great Plains, Mississippi Valley and
Midwest over the next several days.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Above is a 72 hour animation of the forecast. Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full report issued today.

Our Report on the JAMSTEC Three-Season Forecast – Posted on February 17, 2024

February 17, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

The Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, or JAMSTEC, is a Japanese national research institute for marine-earth science and technology

From the JAMSTEC Discussion:

“The recent observation suggests that the El Niño started to decay. The SINTEX-F ensemble mean predicts that the El Niño will decay and an El Niño Modoki will develop and persist at least until the next boreal spring. The model also predicts that a La Niña Modoki will occur in the boreal summer. However, there is a large uncertainty in the predicted amplitude.”

Although it is a World forecast, it includes a forecast for North America since North America is part of the World. One might try to compare it to the NOAA Outlook we published yesterday which can be accessed HERE.

First, we take a look at the forecasted sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA). JAMSTEC starts by forecasting the SSTA and Nino 3.4 Index on the first day of the month and from there it usually takes their models about two weeks to produce their seasonal forecast. I received it from JAMSTEC on February 15 the same day as NOAA issued their Seasonal Update this month.  The JAMSTEC model runs are based on conditions as of February 1, 2024. The NOAA Seasonal Outlook is based on conditions closer to the time when it is issued.

We have a full three-season forecast from JAMSTEC this month. We also have single-month forecasts for March, April and May 2024.

Let’s take a look.

This shows their forecast of sea surface temperature anomalies at three points in time. Red is warm and is associated with El Nino if it occurs in the Nino 3.4 measurement areas.  You can see the El Nino tongue of warm water extending from Peru to the west in the MAM image but look at that blob of warm water to the west i.e. by this point in time this has Modoki characteristics which impact the Walker circulation. JJA and SON show ENSO Neutral or La Nina.

JAMSTEC (and also NOAA) are showing very warm oceans in many parts of the world.  I have written about that before. It raises questions about the reliability of our current approach to thinking about the ENSO Cycle. This is covered in another article that can be accessed HERE. But JAMSTEC is showing a relatively normal ocean off the coast of much of the U.S. which probably explains their strange forecast.

JAMSTEC uses the same definition of Normal (climatology) as NOAA. JAMSTEC does a better job at characterizing La Ninas and El Ninos than NOAA. JAMSTEC provides me with a lot of other information that I do not include in my articles to keep them to a manageable size for readers.

JAMSTEC has been having some computational issues with its model. From the email I received from them: “Because of changes to the library in our computer, this time we could not complete all members”. Two months ago they were not able to publish at all. I do not know how to assess their message to me. In November they upgraded their model from 12 members to 36. Their goal is to go to 108. On the website, the images indicate that all members were included. It is not possible to accurately estimate the current conditions. So the technique in ensemble models is to perturb the assumptions slightly for multiple model runs (or use different physics models for some runs) and take the average (mean) of the solutions. Each solution is called a member of the group of solutions for which the mean was taken.  I am intrigued by the coincidence of this “change to the library in our computer” with their publication of this article. Based on the Japanese Culture they would not have released this forecast if they did not have confidence in it.

Some Readers will have to click on “Read More” to read the rest of the article which you need to read to see the forecasts. I can only include a certain amount of material in the lede.

Today Through the Fourth Friday (22 to 28 days) Weather Outlook for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted February 17, 2024

February 17, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

It is difficult to find a more comprehensive Weather Outlook anywhere else with the ability to get a local 10-day Forecast also.

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the highlights from the NWS.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sat Feb 17 2024
Valid 12Z Sat Feb 17 2024 – 12Z Mon Feb 19 2024

…Heavy to Excessive Rainfall leading to Flash Flooding possible across
much of coastal California…

…Heavy Rainfall likely over much of the Florida Peninsula this weekend…

…Warming trend ensues across midsection of the country…

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Above is a 72 hour animation of the forecast.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full report issued today.