23 Apr 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Strong Earnings Push Markets Higher, S&P 500 Surges Over One Percent In The Green, Led By Nasdaq, All Closing Higher Near Session Highs

April 23, 2024Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 264 points or 0.69%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 1.59%,
  • S&P 500 closed up 1.20%,
  • Gold $2,337 down $9.70,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $83 up $1.43,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.602% down 0.021 points,
  • USD index $105.69 down $0.390,
  • Bitcoin $66,431 up $42 (0.05%)

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – April 2024 Economic Forecast: Economy Marginally Improving But Growth Will Be Weak

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Sales of new single‐family houses in March 2024 is 8.3% above March 2023. The median sales price of new houses sold in March 2024 was $430,700. The average sales price was $524,800.
The seasonally‐adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of March was 477,000. This represents a supply of 8.3 months at the current sales rate. New home sales have been a bright spot in the economy.

Richmond Fed Manufacturing activity remained slow in April 2024. The composite manufacturing index increased from −11 in March to −7 in April. Of its three component indexes, shipments increased from −14 to −10, new orders increased from −17 to −9, and employment fell from 0 to −2. Manufacturing is far from a bright spot in the current economy.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Today Through the Fourth Friday (22 to 28 days) Weather Outlook for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted April 23, 2024

April 23, 2024Posted inUncategorizedNo Comments

It is difficult to find a more comprehensive Weather Outlook anywhere else with the ability to get a local 10-day Forecast also.

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here but it is unlikely to have changed very much. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Tue Apr 23 2024
Valid 12Z Tue Apr 23 2024 – 12Z Thu Apr 25 2024

…Unsettled weather and severe thunderstorm chances ramp up across parts
of the central and southern Plains this week…

…Above average temperatures throughout the western and central United
States, with cooler weather in the Great Lakes and much of the East…

The mostly quiet weather pattern experienced the last few days over the
Lower 48 is expected to gradually retreat as an upper trough develops over
the western U.S. midweek and sparks increasing thunderstorm chances
throughout the Great Plains and parts of the Midwest. First, a pair of
cold fronts crossing the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley today will spread
showers and isolated thunderstorms over the region before reaching the
Northeast on Wednesday. Temperatures may drop rapidly enough for
precipitation to end as snow across northern New England. Meanwhile, a
trailing cold front entering the southern Plains will be the focus for
thunderstorms over the next few days from northern and West Texas to
central Oklahoma. A few storms could be capable of producing large hail
and damaging wind gusts across northwest Texas today, which has prompted
the Storm Prediction Center to issue a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe
weather. A few isolated severe thunderstorms may also develop off a
southern High Plains dryline on Wednesday ahead of the approaching western
upper trough. This upper level system will aid in more widespread shower
and thunderstorm activity throughout the central and southern Plains on
Thursday. Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible as low pressure
develops over the central High Plains and a strengthening dryline pushes
eastward, with most of the severe potential located between south-central
Nebraska and northern Texas. Along with the severe thunderstorm threat,
heavy rain could lead to isolated instances of flash flooding.

Elsewhere, unsettled weather is also in the forecast throughout parts of
the Great Basin and eventually the Pacific Northwest by Thursday as
initial upper ridging and well above average temperatures gradually erode.
Much of the rainfall is expected to be mostly beneficial outside of any
lightning potential with thunderstorms over the central Great Basin. Highs
throughout the southwest are anticipated to reach the 80s and 90s through
Wednesday, with 60s and 70s for much of the Intermountain West.

Cooler weather is in store for the Great Lakes and much of the eastern
U.S. beginning with the potential for frost this morning from the southern
Appalachians to southern New England. Lows dipping into the 30s here may
damage sensitive plants and vegetation if left unprotected. Temperatures
are forecast to rebound this afternoon as highs reach into the 60s and 70s
ahead of the next spring cold front entering from the Great Lakes tonight.
This will allow for midweek temperatures to drop to around 10 to 20
degrees below average for the Great Lakes and Northeast, equating to high
temperatures ranging from the 40s in northern locations to 60s along the
northern Mid-Atlantic coastline.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

22 Apr 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Small Cap Indexes Break Six Session Losses, Markets Close Sharply Higher

April 22, 2024Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 254 points or 0.67%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 1.11%,
  • S&P 500 closed up 0.87%,
  • Gold $2,343 up $70.70,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $83 up $0.12,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.617% up 0.002 points,
  • USD index $106.13 down $0.030,
  • Bitcoin $66,544 up $1,803 (2.78%)

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – April 2024 Economic Forecast: Economy Marginally Improving But Growth Will Be Weak

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, increased to –0.19 in March 2024 from –0.28 in February. The CFNAI-MA3 is used for economic forecasting – and is my favorite coincident index. A zero value for the CFNAI has been associated with the national economy expanding at its historical trend (average) rate of growth which the current values indicate soft growth. In March, Fifty indicators improved from February to March, while 35 indicators deteriorated.

 

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Today Through the Fourth Friday (22 to 28 days) Weather Outlook for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted April 22, 2024

April 22, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

It is difficult to find a more comprehensive Weather Outlook anywhere else with the ability to get a local 10-day Forecast also.

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here but it is unlikely to have changed very much. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Mon Apr 22 2024
Valid 12Z Mon Apr 22 2024 – 12Z Wed Apr 24 2024

…Shower and thunderstorm chances stretch from the Upper Midwest and
Great Lakes to the Southern Plains over the next few days…

…Chilly and frosty start to Earth Day throughout the Ohio Valley and
Mid-Atlantic, while well above average temperatures remain in place across
much of the Southwest/Great Basin…

Precipitation chances are expected to remain mostly scattered and light
throughout much of the Nation into midweek as atmospheric moisture content
remains sparse following the passage of a strong cold front into the Gulf
of Mexico and western Atlantic. A few thunderstorms are possible across
the central and southern Florida Peninsula today as the aforementioned
cold front makes it’s final exit. A few storms could turn severe and
produce damaging wind gusts and hail. Thus, the Storm Prediction Center
has issued a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) for severe weather across southeast
Florida. Otherwise, rain chances are forecast to progress eastward from
the northern Plains to the Upper Midwest today along a swiftly moving
Pacific cold front. By Tuesday, rain chances are anticipated to stretch
from the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley to the Southern Plains. The heaviest
rain associated with this system is possible across parts of
central/eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas on Wednesday, but this
aspect of the forecast remains somewhat uncertain.

Temperatures are expected to start off in the 30s throughout much of the
Midwest, Ohio and Tennessee valleys, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast as strong
high pressure leads to clear skies and cold temperatures at ground-level.
Lows into the low 30s are likely to lead to frost/freeze conditions and
has prompted Frost Advisories and Freeze Warnings for much of the region
where the growing season has already begun. Warmer weather is forecast to
begin spreading eastward on Tuesday, but will be short-lived as the next
shot of cold air enters the Great Lakes Tuesday night. Warmer weather is
anticipated to remain throughout the Southwest, Great Basin, and parts of
the Southern Plains through midweek. Highs can be expected to reach into
the 70s and 80s, with 90s and low 100s in the typical warm spots
throughout the Desert Southwest.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

Federal Deficit Spending (Quarterly) and Inflation. Part 3

April 21, 2024Posted inmacroeconomics2 Comments

The full data sets for the 56 years from 1966 to 2022 show no discernable association patterns (correlations) for federal deficit spending (FDS) and inflation changes.1  Thus, we started an analysis by looking specifically at the various regimes of inflation change during the 56-year timeline.  The most recent post2 analyzed the seven time periods over 56 years with positive inflation surges.  This article analyzes the association between CPI changes and FDS changes during the four periods from 1966 to 2022 with negative inflation (disinflation/deflation) surges.


Image by Nicolae Baltatescu from Pixabay.

Today Through the Fourth Friday (22 to 28 days) Weather Outlook for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted April 21, 2024

April 21, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

It is difficult to find a more comprehensive Weather Outlook anywhere else with the ability to get a local 10-day Forecast also.

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here but it is unlikely to have changed very much. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sun Apr 21 2024
Valid 12Z Sun Apr 21 2024 – 12Z Tue Apr 23 2024

…Lingering showers and storms expected across the Southeast today and
Florida through Monday…

…Above average temperatures forecast throughout the Southwest, with
below average readings for most locations east of the Rockies…

Strong high pressure over the central U.S. today is set to slide eastward
by early this week and will allow for mostly tranquil weather conditions
across the Nation. A lingering frontal boundary along the Southeast will
produce additional scattered showers and thunderstorms through tonight
across the Carolinas, Georgia, and northern Florida. Rainfall amounts are
expected to remain mostly light as the activity quickly races to the east,
with rainfall chances on Monday confined to the Florida Peninsula. As the
aforementioned frontal boundary crosses central Florida to start the new
workweek, a few storms could strengthen enough to contain damaging wind
gusts and hail. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Marginal Risk
(level 1/5) for severe weather across parts of the central and southern
Florida Peninsula in order to highlight this potential.

Outside of a few rain and snow showers across New England associated with
an approaching cold front on Sunday night, the only other areas with
notable precipitation will be linked to a low pressure system and attached
cold front stretching from the Upper Great Lakes to the central Plains
Monday night. Rainfall amounts are expected to remain meager and mostly
under a half inch through Tuesday as the system swings into Midwest and
Ohio Valley.

Temperatures across the country will remain split today, with warmth in
the Southwest and cooler than average highs across the central and eastern
United States. As high pressure weakens and slides east, a gradual warm up
can be expected east of the Rockies. The greatest turnaround is
anticipated over the southern Plains, where highs in the 60s today could
be replaced by 80s on Tuesday. Meanwhile, lows into the 20s and 30s this
morning are likely to lead to frost/freeze concerns throughout the Midwest
and parts of the Ohio Valley. Chilly morning temperatures are also
expected to linger on Monday, before cool weather erodes to the Northeast
on Tuesday with portions the Appalachians, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast
waking up to frosty temperatures in the 30s.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

Oklahoma Drought Report – Posted on April 20, 2024

April 20, 2024Posted inClimateNo Comments

There were two presentations in this webinar. I am reporting on one of them in this article but I provide a link to the recording of both presentations. The second presentation also was of great interest.

I watch or receive a large number of webinars each month. They are all great. I was just blown away by Gary’s graphics so I could not resist publishing them.  Katie’s presentation is also great since it deals with a very important subject. I will probably write an article on her work also but there are only so many hours in the day and the number of interesting weather and climate topics is quite large. What follows in this article are many of Gary’s slides and one additional NOAA graphic that I added. My comments are in boxes like this. I provide a link to both presentations and if you watch that recording you will hear Gary’s comments on his slides. If I recall correctly, his presentation runs for about twenty-five minutes.

Today Through the Fourth Friday (22 to 28 days) Weather Outlook for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted April 20, 2024

April 20, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

It is difficult to find a more comprehensive Weather Outlook anywhere else with the ability to get a local 10-day Forecast also.

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here but it is unlikely to have changed very much. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
Sat Apr 20 2024
Valid 12Z Sat Apr 20 2024 – 12Z Mon Apr 22 2024

…Heavy rain and scattered instances of flash flooding possible across
the southern Plains and lower Mississippi Valley today…

…Light snow continues across parts of the central Rockies and central
High Plains…

…Below average temperatures for much of the Nation east of the Rockies
this weekend before spring warmth returns to the Plains on Monday…

A lingering quasi-stationary front draped across the Southeast, Gulf Coast
States, and southern Plains will be the focus for numerous showers and
thunderstorms this weekend. The greatest impacts associated with this
system are expected to occur today as heavy rain could lead to scattered
flash flooding issues from Texas to Mississippi. Multiple rounds of
potentially intense rainfall developing over saturated terrain has
prompted a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of Excessive Rainfall through tonight.
This area includes much of central and eastern Texas, northern Louisiana,
southern Arkansas, and central Mississippi. A few isolated storms could
also contain damaging wind gusts and hail throughout central/southern
Texas and the Southeast. The greatest coverage of showers and
thunderstorms are expected to progress eastward tonight and eventually
confine to the central Gulf Coast and Southeast on Sunday, with lessening
chances for flash flooding and severe thunderstorms.

Light precipitation chances are also forecast to continue across other
parts of the Nation through Monday. Light snow will linger throughout
parts of Colorado today, where a few additional inches of accumulating
snowfall are expected along the Front Range. Winter Weather Advisories
remain in effect. Meanwhile, an exiting cold front today followed by a
stronger cold front on Sunday night will lead to rain and snow showers
traversing New England. Lastly, the next frontal system to impact the
Pacific Northwest will rapidly spread showers throughout the region
tonight before swiftly pushing rain chances into the northern Plains and
Upper Midwest on Monday.

Temperatures are anticipated to remain below average for much of the
country behind the cold front extending from the Southeast to the southern
Plains. This leaves the West, Southwest, and Southeast as the warm spots
this weekend with highs into the 70s and 80s. As temperatures moderate on
Monday and return flow enters the central U.S., below normal temperatures
are expected to erode as highs into the 70s surge into the central Plains,
with cooler weather remaining across the Northeast. Additionally, lows
into the 30s over the next few mornings could lead to frost/freeze
concerns for locations already in the growing season from the Midwest to
the upper Ohio Valley.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

19 Apr 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Small Caps Nosedive, While The Dow Remained Above The Unchanged Line During The Entire Session, Marking The Sixth Down Session For The S&P 500

April 19, 2024Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 211 points or 0.56%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 2.05%,
  • S&P 500 closed down 0.88%,
  • Gold $2,403 up $4.80,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $83 up $0.48,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.621% down 0.024 points,
  • EUR/USD index $1.065 up $0.001,
  • Bitcoin $64,299 up $921 (1.45%), – Historic high 73,798.25
  • Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. +2 to 619 Canada -14 to 127

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – April 2024 Economic Forecast: Economy Marginally Improving But Growth Will Be Weak

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

No releases today

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

NOAA Updates its Seasonal Outlook on April 18, 2024 – La Nina is Coming: Published April 19, 2024

April 19, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

On the third Thursday of the month right on schedule NOAA issued their updated Seasonal Outlook which I describe as their Four-Season Outlook because it extends a bit more than one year into the future. The information released also included the Mid-Month Outlook for the following month plus the weather and drought outlook for the next three months.  I present the information issued by NOAA and try to add context to it. It is quite a challenge for NOAA to address the subsequent month, the subsequent three-month period as well as the twelve successive three-month periods for a year or a bit more.

With respect to the long-term part of the Outlook which I call the Four-Season Outlook, there is a rapid transition from El Nino to ENSO Neutral to LaNina. So getting the timing right is challenging. La Nina is now the likely scenario for this summer almost to the end of the forecast period. The Outlook beyond May has not been significantly changed from what was issued last month. This suggests increasing confidence in the outlook.  I may write another article on the implications of this forecast for agriculture and perhaps energy usage.

First, Let’s Take a Look at the (mid-month) Outlook for May

It will be updated on the last day of April.

The top row is what is now called the Mid-Month Outlook for next month which will be updated at the end of this month. There is a temperature map and a precipitation map. The second row is a three-month outlook that includes next month.  I think the outlook maps are self-explanatory. What is important to remember is that they show deviations from the current definition of normal which is the period 1991 through 2020.  So this is not a forecast of the absolute value of temperature or precipitation but the change from what is defined as normal or to use the technical term “climatology”.

Notice that the Outlook for next month and the three-month Outlook are somewhat different, especially with regard to temperature.  This tells us that June and July will be different than May to some extent.

The full NOAA Seasonal Outlook extends through May/June/July of 2025 (yes that is more than a year out). All of these maps are in the body of the article. Large maps are provided for May and the three-month period May/June/July.  Small maps are provided beyond that through May/June/July of 2025 with a link to get larger versions of these maps.

NOAA provides an excellent discussion to support the maps. It is included in the body of this article. In some cases, one will need to click on “read more” to read the full article.  For those on my email list where I have sent the url of the article, that will not be necessary.