This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sun Jun 16 2024
Valid 12Z Sun Jun 16 2024 – 12Z Tue Jun 18 2024

…Multiple rounds of heavy rain and severe thunderstorms are expected to
impact locations from the northern Plains to the upper Midwest for the
next couple of days…

…Late-season wet snow is forecast for the northern Rockies Monday and
Tuesday…

…A heat wave will quickly spread from the Plains today, into the Great
Lakes/Upper Ohio Valley on Monday, and into the Northeast on Tuesday…

…A plume of tropical moisture will bring an increasing threat of heavy
rain and flash flooding to the central Gulf Coast late Sunday into Monday,
shifting toward the western Gulf Coast by Tuesday…

As a high pressure system brings fair weather and a fresh dose of cooler
than normal temperatures into the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic this weekend,
a heat wave is emerging across the Midwest into the Ohio Valley ahead of a
complex low pressure system developing over the northern Plains. A
thunderstorm complex containing severe weather is in progress early this
morning in association with the intensifying low pressure complex. The
thunderstorms will quickly move northeast into southern Canada today but
additional jet stream energy moving across the northern Rockies will help
develop a new low pressure system over the central Plains later today.
This system will rapidly develop and expand the next round of showers and
thunderstorms across the northern Plains tonight, and heading into the
upper Midwest on Monday. Severe thunderstorms with heavy downpours can be
expected to accompany this round of inclement over the upper Midwest after
the latest round of moderate to heavy rain and strong thunderstorms in the
same area early this morning diminishes and moves east into the upper
Great Lakes.

By Tuesday, yet another upper trough with an energetic jet stream will
move quickly into the Pacific Northwest. This system will usher a dose of
even colder air through the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies, where
a round of late-season wet snow is expected to persist over the
higher-elevations of the northern Rockies Monday into Tuesday. A Winter
Storm Watch is in effect for these higher-elevations. In addition, Freeze
and Frost Warnings are in effect over portions of the interior Pacific
Northwest. This energetic system will also bring quite a bit of wind
across the Great Basin and the northern Rockies on Monday, reaching into
the central Rockies and northern Plains by Tuesday morning. As the low
pressure center over the central High Plains intensifies and heads
northeast across the northern Plains, a renewed round of heavy rain and
severe thunderstorms will likely develop and impact the same general
region of upper Midwest across north-central Minnesota by Tuesday morning,
where a moderate risk of flash flooding is anticipated.

In stark contrast to the cool/cold, windy, and even snowy weather across
the Northwest, a heat wave is quickly emerging ahead of the low pressure
complex from the central Plains, upper Midwest, and into the Ohio Valley.
The heat will surge into the Northeast by Tuesday where high temperatures
well up into the 90s are forecast as far north as Vermont and New
Hampshire.

Farther south from Central America across southern Florida and through the
western Atlantic, a plume of tropical moisture lurking across these areas
will shift westward into the Gulf of Mexico and begin to head toward the
central Gulf Coast region late Sunday into Monday. Showers and embedded
thunderstorms associated with this moisture plume are expected to bring an
increasing threat of heavy rain first along the central Gulf Coast region
during the next couple of days, with a gradual westward shift in the heavy
rainfall axis toward the western Gulf Coast by Tuesday. Meanwhile, the
National Hurricane Center continues to monitor the potential for a
tropical cyclone to form over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico through the
next few days. It appears that east to northeasterly winds will gradually
strengthen especially along the western Gulf Coast region by Tuesday
morning as pressure gradually falls in the Gulf of Mexico.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sat Jun 15 2024
Valid 12Z Sat Jun 15 2024 – 12Z Mon Jun 17 2024

…Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms and locally heavy rain expected
to impact various locations in the northern and central U.S. through the
next couple of days…

…Late-season wet snow is forecast for the northern Rockies beginning on
Monday…

…A plume of tropical moisture is forecast to reach the central Gulf
Coast on Monday…

…A heat wave will quickly spread from the northern Plains this weekend
into the Great Lakes on Monday…

As a series of fronts pushes the showers and storms off the East Coast
early this morning, an active and changeable weather pattern will
establish across the Pacific Northwest. The unseasonably cold and
blustery conditions across this region will be in stark contrast with the
heat that is forecast to quickly spread from the northern Plains this
weekend, reaching into the Great Lakes on Monday. Areas in between these
temperature extremes will be under an active storm track where low
pressure systems will develop and move through in quick succession. The
first round of showers and storms associated with a leading system is
forecast to spark thunderstorm activity from the central Plains early this
morning to the upper Midwest by tonight. Multiple rounds of heavy rain
associated with these storms could lead to areas of flash flooding between
eastern Nebraska and northern Wisconsin. Additionally, a trailing and
stronger low pressure system is forecast to intensify and move quickly
across the northern Plains tonight. This system will help produce strong
to severe thunderstorms across parts of eastern Montana into North and
South Dakota. Unseasonably cold and windy weather will continue into
Sunday and Monday across the Northwest as yet another cold upper trough
reaches the Pacific Northwest. This system will reinforce the
unseasonably cold and windy conditions across the region on Monday along
with wet snow moving into the northern Rockies, therefore prompting the
issuance of Winter Storm Watches. Meanwhile, an area of rain and
thunderstorms is expected to develop and expand across the northern Plains
toward the upper Midwest where a stationary front strengthens ahead of a
developing low pressure system over the central High Plains.

Across the Florida Peninsula, the threat of heavy rain continues to
diminish as the main tropical moisture plume is forecast to swing farther
west and head toward the central Gulf Coast during the next couple of
days. Nevertheless, some thunderstorms that manage to develop over
southern Florida could result in local flooding issues given the already
saturated soil. By Monday morning, heavy rain associated with the
tropical moisture plume could begin impacting the central Gulf Coast
region. In contrast, a refreshingly dry airmass behind a cold front
should lead to beautiful weather this Father’s Day weekend throughout the
Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Ohio Valley.

The other main weather story this weekend will be the simmering heat
impacting areas from the Southwest to the Gulf Coast and Southeast. Highs
are forecast to reach the triple digits throughout much of the Desert
Southwest, with upper 90s stretching from the Southeast to parts of the
Southern Plains. Above average temperatures are also forecast across the
central Great Basin and northern Plains ahead of a cold front, with well
below average temperatures encompassing the Pacific Northwest. By Sunday,
an upper level ridge is anticipated to begin building across the Eastern
U.S., with anomalous heat starting in much of the Midwest, Central Plains,
and Tennessee Valley. Highs are forecast to reach the upper 90s, with
maximum heat indices near 105 degrees. When combined with warm overnight
lows, major heat risk could affect anyone without effective cooling and/or
adequate hydration. Be sure to remain weather aware and follow proper heat
safety!

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Thu Jun 13 2024
Valid 12Z Thu Jun 13 2024 – 12Z Sat Jun 15 2024

…There is an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Middle Mississippi Valley/Western Ohio Valley on Thursday and a Slight
Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic/New
England plus the Central/Southern High Plains on Friday…

…There is a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
southern tip of Florida on Thursday and a slight Risk over the southern
tip of Florida on Friday…

…There are Excessive Heat Warnings/Watches and Advisories over Southern
California, Southwest, Central Plains, and Southern High Plains on
Thursday…

A front extending from the Upper Great Lakes, Upper/Middle Mississippi
Valley, and then westward to the Central Rockies will move eastward to the
Northeast Coast, Mid-Atlantic, and westward to the Middle Mississippi
Valley and Central Plains by Saturday. The boundary will trigger showers
and severe thunderstorms over parts of the Middle Mississippi
Valley/Western Ohio Valley. Therefore, the SPC has issued an Enhanced Risk
(level 3/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Middle Mississippi
Valley/Western Ohio Valley through Friday morning. The hazards associated
with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind
gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. In addition, there will be an added
threat of severe thunderstorms wind gusts of 65 knots or greater from the
Central Plains to Western Ohio Valley. Further, there will be an added
threat of large hail, two inches or greater, from the Central Plains to
the Western Ohio Valley.

On Friday, the boundary moves eastward to the Northeast, producing showers
and severe thunderstorms over parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic/New
England. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic/New England from
Friday through Saturday morning. The hazards associated with these
thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, and
a minimal threat of tornadoes/ hail.

In addition, along the western end of the front, showers and severe
thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Central High Plains.
Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the Central High Plains from Friday through
Saturday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are
frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few
tornadoes. Furthermore, there will be an added threat of severe
thunderstorms wind gusts of 65 knots or greater from the Central High
Plains. On Friday, there will also be showers and thunderstorms from parts
of the Middle Mississippi Valley to the Central/Southern Appalachians.

Meanwhile, on Thursday, a stationary front with waves will extend across
northern Florida and parts of the Gulf of Mexico, and the combination of
tropical moisture over southern Florida will produce showers and
thunderstorms with very heavy rain over parts of southern Florida.
Therefore, the WPC has issued a Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of excessive
rainfall through Friday morning. The associated heavy rain will create
numerous areas of flash flooding. Furthermore, many streams may flood,
potentially affecting larger rivers.

On Friday, the threat of excessive rainfall will decrease slightly over
the southern tip of Florida. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk
(level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over southern Florida from Friday into
Saturday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized
areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and
low-lying areas the most vulnerable.

Elsewhere, on Friday, a front will develop over parts of the Pacific
Northwest and move inland to the Northern Plains, the Great Basin, and
Southern California. The system will produce showers and thunderstorms
over parts of the Northern High Plains and Northern Plains on Friday
evening into Saturday. Moreover, onshore flow behind the front will
produce rain over parts of the Pacific Northwest from Friday to Saturday.

Moreover, upper-level ridging will develop over parts of the Southwest
eastward to the Southern, leading to Excessive Heat Warnings/Watches and
Heat Advisories over Southern California, Southwest, Central Plains, and
Southern High Plains. Residents and individuals involved in outdoor
activities must stay informed and take immediate and necessary precautions.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.