Democracy in America
In this post, I will highlight Alexis de Tocqueville’s famous book “Democracy in America” and then completely denounce it.
NOAA Updates its Four Season Outlook on September 15, 2022 – One More La Nina Winter
Preparing to Say Goodbye to La Nina Early in 2023. It seems as if it is taking forever but if the forecasters are correct, we are talking about four to six months from now.
Today is the third Thursday of the month so right on schedule NOAA has issued what I describe as their Four-Season Outlook. The information released also includes the Early Outlook for the single month of October plus the weather and drought outlook for the next three months. I present the information issued and try to add context to it. It is quite a challenge for NOAA to address the subsequent month, the subsequent three-month period as well as successive three-month periods for a year or a bit more.
It is very useful to read the excellent discussion that NOAA issues with this Seasonal Outlook. NOAA seems to be more confident about making predictions beyond six months. They even predicted a good monsoon next summer which they never do this far in advance.
September 17, 2022: 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical
Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this afternoon’s NWS Forecast.
...Low pressure waves moving east across the northern Plains will bring a threat of heavy rain across the upper Great Lakes and chance of severe thunderstorms over parts of the upper Midwest this weekend... ...Heavy rain associated with a Pacific low pressure system is forecast to reach northern California on Sunday... ...Heat is forecast to build across the central Plains...
16 September 2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street Closed Lower Today After FedEx Earnings Warning Of Weakening Global Demand
Summary Of the Markets Today:
- The Dow closed down 139 points or 0.45%,
- Nasdaq closed down 0.90%,
- S&P 500 down 0.72%,
- WTI crude oil settled at $85 up 0.27%,
- USD $109.74 little changed,
- Gold $1683 up 0.38%,
- Bitcoin $19.649 down 0.18% – Session Low 19,370,
- 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.453% Unchanged,
- Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. +4 to 763 Canada +6 to 211
Today’s Economic Releases:
The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2022 is 0.5% on September 15, down from 1.3% on September 9. After this week’s releases from the US Department of the Treasury’s Bureau of the Fiscal Service, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the US Census Bureau, and the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, decreases in the nowcasts of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and third-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth from 1.7% and -6.1%, respectively, to 0.4% and -6.4%, respectively, was slightly offset by an increase in the nowcast of third-quarter real government spending growth from 1.3% to 2.0%. What this decline in GDPNow says that the economy was only modestly (and not significantly) improving in 3Q2022 as the previous two quarters in 2022 were in contraction – but it is noteworthy that the data coming at the end of 3Q2022 is weak and may be signaling another contraction in 4Q2022.
A summary of headlines we are reading today:
- U.S. And EU Nickel Imports From Russia Surge
- Michael Jordan’s ‘Last Dance’ jersey sells for a record-breaking $10.1 million
- London’s Heathrow alters 15% of Monday flights for Queen Elizabeth II’s funeral
- FedEx shares sink after company cites weakening global demand
- 1.3 Million Jobs Were Result Of Double-Counting This Year, Heritage Economist Says
- New York City ‘Nearing Its Breaking Point’ With Influx Of Illegal Immigrants From Texas: Mayor
These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.
September 16, 2022: 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical
Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this afternoon’s NWS Forecast.
...Heavy to excessive rainfall possible across parts of the Central Great Basin/Northern Rockies today and into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes through Friday... ...Daily rounds of showers and storms likely across Florida... ...Warming trend begins in Central Plains while West and Northeast continue to experience below average temperatures... ...Scattered Severe Thunderstorms over the portions of the Central High Plains and Central Plains on Friday...
15 September 2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street Attempted One shot In The Green And It Was Downhill From There, Today’s Session Illustrates Investors Continued High Interest And Recession Fears
Summary Of the Markets Today:
- The Dow closed down 173 points or 0.56%,
- Nasdaq closed down 1.43%,
- S&P 500 down 1.13%,
- WTI crude oil settled at $85 down 3.77%,
- USD $109.75 weakened 0.06%,
- Gold $1673 down 2.14%,
- Bitcoin $19.844 down 2.00% – Session Low 19,612,
- 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.449% Unchanged,
Today’s Economic Releases:
The Philly Fed Manufacturing Index declined in September 2022. The index for returned to negative territory, falling from 6.2 in August to -9.9 this month. The new orders index remained negative, and the shipments index declined but remained positive. This index is showing a weakly growing economy.
Prices for U.S. imports grew 7.8% year-over-year in August following a 8.7% YoY in July whilst U.S. export prices grew 10.8% in August after growing 12.9% the previous month. The trend of inflation is this sector continues to modestly abate.
In the week ending September 10, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims 4-week moving average was 224,000, a decrease of 8,000 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised down by 1,000 from 233,000 to 232,000. New unemployment claims continues to modestly improve which is a sign of an improving economy.
Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for August 2022, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were 9.1% above August 2021. This is the first month since March 2022 where the inflation-adjusted YoY growth returned to positive territory (1.2% – red line on the graph below). This implies the economy is modestly growing in August.
the September 2022 Empire State Manufacturing Survey index climbed thirty points to -1.5. New orders edged higher, and shipments increased sharply. This index is implying a modest decline in manufacturing.
According to the Federal Reserve, industrial production decreased 0.2% in August. However, year-over-year growth has been holding quite steady at 3.7%. In fact, all elements of industrial production remain in positive territory EXCEPT utilities which show a 1.6% YoY contraction. This data set is indicating the economy is expanding at a healthy rate.
The combined value of distributive trade sales and manufacturers’ shipments for July, adjusted for seasonal and trading day differences but not for price changes, was up 12.5% from July 2021. Inventories Manufacturers’ and trade inventories for July were up 18.4% from July 2021. The key indicator of the health of this sector is the total business inventories/sales ratio which was 1.32. The July 2021 ratio was 1.26. These numbers indicate that inventories are growing with respect to sales – but remain in the range seen in the last 10 years [it could be just the supply chain catching up].
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A summary of headlines we are reading today:
- Germanys Tesla Plant Is Facing Yet Another Hurdle
- U.S. Natural Gas Prices Plummet On Rail Deal, Storage Build
- Railroads and labor unions reach tentative deal to avert strike
- Frontier Airlines recently held talks with SpaceX about adding Starlink Wi-Fi
- Greenpeace Intensifies Campaign Against Bitcoin Following Ethereum’s Merge
- Greenpeace Intensifies Campaign Against Bitcoin Following Ethereum’s Merge
- US mortgage rates hit 14-year high as inflation soars
These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.
September 15, 2022: 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical
Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this afternoon’s NWS Forecast.
...Heavy to excessive rainfall possible across parts of the central Great Basin/Northern Rockies through Thursday and into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes on Thursday and Friday... ...Daily rounds of showers and storms likely across Florida... ...Above average temperatures span across the central United States and Midwest to end the week...
14September 2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street Three Major Indexes Recovered From Yesterday’s Worst Day Of 2022, Trading Mostly Along The Unchanged Line Finally Closed Modestly Up, Recession and Inflation Fears Main Topic Of Investors
Summary Of the Markets Today:
- The Dow closed up 30 points or 0.10%,
- Nasdaq closed up 0.74%,
- S&P 500 up 0.34%,
- WTI crude oil settled at $89 up 2.03% for the week,
- USD $109.82 strengthened 0.14%,
- Gold $1705 down 0.73%,
- Bitcoin $19.958 down 1.07% – Session Low 19,691,
- 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.412 Unchanged,
Today’s Economic Releases:
The Producer Price Index for final demand moved up 8.7% for the 12 months ended in August 2022 – down from last month’s 9.8%. The decrease in the index for final demand is attributable to a decline in final demand goods which was somewhat offset by a rise in final demand services. The CPI released yesterday for August 2022 showed an 8.2% YoY rise. In general, the CPI and PPI move in the same direction.
A summary of headlines we are reading today:
- U.S. Producer Prices Index Drops On Lower Gasoline Prices
- Japan Plans To Restart Seven Nuclear Reactors By Summer 2023
- Railroads say they won’t lock out workers as negotiators meet with Labor Secretary Walsh
- Taxpayers can avoid a ‘very nasty surprise’ by making quarterly payments by Sept. 15
- Mortgage demand from homebuyers falls 29% since last year, as interest rates surge past 6%
- Powell’s Pivot To “Pain” But No Gain: Triggering The Coming Recession
- Bond Report: Short-term Treasury yield holds at nearly 15-year high a day after August CPI shock
- Market Extra: Markets are waking up to the notion that inflation hasn’t peaked
These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.
September 14, 2022: 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical
Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this afternoon’s NWS Forecast.
...Heavy to excessive rainfall possible across parts of the Great Basin and Northern Rockies through Wednesday, and into the far northern U.S. on Thursday... ...Daily rounds of showers and storms likely across Florida... ...Much above normal temperatures for the central U.S., with much below in parts of the West and the East...
What is the United Kingdom, anyway?
How can the U.K., a country composed of some islands in West Europe, become such a powerful country, with its language, English, as the global language today?