EconCurrents

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Wed Sep 11 2024
Valid 12Z Wed Sep 11 2024 – 12Z Fri Sep 13 2024

…Hurricane Francine is forecast to make landfall in Louisiana later this
evening with damaging winds, life-threatening storm surge, and torrential
rainfall…

…A round of moderate to heavy rain with high-elevation snow forecast
throughout the northern Rockies…

…Elevated to critical fire weather concerns across much of the Great
Basin and portions of the High Plains…

Ample attention is on the central Gulf Coast today as Hurricane Francine
is anticipated to make landfall in Louisiana this evening before spreading
impacts north to the Mid-South through the end of the week. Once the storm
pushes onshore south-central Louisiana tonight, life-threatening weather
conditions are expected to impact parts of the state, including the cites
of Lafayette, Baton Rouge, and New Orleans. Hazardous weather conditions
include storm surge, strong winds, torrential rainfall, and a few
tornadoes. While the strongest winds and peak storm surge are expected to
occur closer to the center of Francine in south-central portions of
Louisiana, the heavy rain and tornado threats are forecast to span much
farther east along the central and eastern Gulf Coast, including southern
Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. In total, Francine is
expected to produce rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches, with local amounts
to 12 inches for the central/eastern Gulf Coast through Thursday night.
This rainfall could lead to considerable flash and urban flooding. As
Francine pushes northward into the Mid-South and weakens by the end of the
week, additional heavy rain is possible and could lead to scattered
instances of flash flooding. Additionally, a lingering frontal boundary
draped across the Florida Peninsula could lead to localized flash flooding
concerns over the next few days. Residents under hurricane-related
warnings should follow advice of local officials, including evacuation
orders, and never drive across flooded roadways.

A separate weather system will also impact the Nation through the end of
this week, with moderate to heavy rain and gusty winds impacting parts of
the Intermountain West and northern Rockies. This autumn storm will be
driven by a deep upper low crossing from the Northwest today before
closing-off and churning over the northern Rockies on Thursday. Most of
the impactful precipitation will be confined to the northern Rockies and
the High Plains on Montana. A few inches of rainfall could produce
flooding concerns throughout northwest Montana, prompting a Slight Risk
(level 2/4) of Excessive Rainfall both today and Thursday. Snow levels
dropping to around 7,000-8000 feet may also create hazardous winter-like
conditions for the high elevations of Montana Idaho, and northwest
Wyoming. The other aspect of this system will be associated with gusty
winds and increased fire weather concerns throughout the Great Basin and
High Plains. Strong winds combined with dry vegetation and low relative
humidity are forecast to be more pronounced over the Great Basin today and
increase the chances for erratic fire behavior. Additionally, elevated to
critical fire weather also exists across the High Plains and is most
apparent on Thursday as southerly winds increase in speed. Red Flag
Warnings and Fire Weather Watches have been issued throughout 10 states
between California and Nebraska. Outdoor burning is not recommended
throughout these regions and residents are reminded to not go near any
wildfires as they can spread quickly.

Otherwise, a large high pressure system over the Northeast will aid in
producing tranquil weather from the Great Lakes to much of the East. Well
above average temperatures are expected to overspread the north-central
U.S. before a warming trend is also noticeable across the southern Plains
by Friday. Highs across the northern Plains, Upper Midwest, and Great
Lakes are forecast to reach into the upper 80s and low 90s, while upper
90s eventually return to the western half of Texas and eastern New Mexico.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Tue Sep 10 2024
Valid 12Z Tue Sep 10 2024 – 12Z Thu Sep 12 2024

…Life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force winds, as well as the
risk of considerable flash flooding are forecast across southern Louisiana
on Wednesday as Francine approaches…

…Heavy rain expected to impact parts of the northern Rockies by
midweek…

…Elevated to critical fire weather concerns across much of the
Intermountain West…

As of early this morning Tropical Storm Francine continues churning in the
western Gulf of Mexico just to the southeast of Brownsville, Texas and
moving on a gradual northward motion. Francine is forecast to strengthen
into a hurricane before an expected landfall in southern Louisiana on
Wednesday. As the system approaches the central Gulf Coast and eventually
pushes inland across Louisiana, an increased threat of life-threatening
storm surge, hurricane-fore winds, and considerable flash flooding is
anticipated. Rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches, with local amounts up to
12 inches are forecast across much of central/eastern Louisiana and
Mississippi through Thursday night. Francine is then forecast to continue
its trek northward into the Mid-South on Thursday, while quickly
weakening. However, additional heavy rainfall and flash flooding concerns
are possible into western Tennessee neighboring regions. A stationary
front extending eastward from the center of the storm over the next few
days will also focus areas of numerous, slow-moving thunderstorms capable
of containing intense rainfall rates between the Florida Peninsula and
central Gulf Coast. Residents are reminded to remain weather-ready and
never drive across flooded roadways.

The only other section of the Lower 48 expecting chances for heavy rain
through midweek are parts the northern Rockies as a deep upper-level low
crosses over the region. A few inches of rainfall throughout northwest
Montana could lead to an increased risk of flash flooding on Wednesday,
which has prompted a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of Excessive Rainfall. This
storm system will also produce gusty winds throughout the Intermountain
West and lead to fire weather concerns. Specifically, the Storm Prediction
Center has issued a Critical Fire Weather area for much of Nevada and
western Utah. Current and continued wildfire activity over the Great Basin
will further add to the smokey skies noticeable throughout the northern
Plains, Midwest, and parts of the Ohio/Tennessee valleys.

High temperatures will remain above average average and into potentially
dangerous levels across parts of southern California and the Southwest
today before a quick cooldown commences by midweek. Meanwhile, upper
ridging in the north-central U.S. is expected to produce more summer-like
afternoon temperatures into the upper 80s and low 90s as far north as the
northern Plains and Upper Midwest by Thursday. These temperatures equate
to around 10 to 20 degrees above average, but are not expected to break
many daily records.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Mon Sep 09 2024
Valid 12Z Mon Sep 09 2024 – 12Z Wed Sep 11 2024

…Heavy rain and a risk of flash flooding expected throughout much of the
Gulf Coast and Florida Peninsula into midweek…

…Potentially dangerous heat forecast across southern California and the
Southwest today…

…Elevated to critical fire weather concerns as well as Air Quality
Alerts remain across much of the Great Basin…

A stationary front extending from the Florida Peninsula through the
northern Gulf of Mexico along with a gradually organizing area of low
pressure in the southwest Gulf of Mexico (labeled Potential Tropical
Cyclone Six by the National Hurricane Center) will continue to produce
areas of heavy rain and the risk of flash flooding through midweek. For
today, the heaviest rainfall is anticipated over portions of southern
Texas, the central Gulf Coast, and much of the Florida Peninsula, mainly
associated with scattered showers and thunderstorms near the stationary
boundary. This may lead to isolated flash flooding concerns mainly
concentrated to urban locations. By Tuesday and more pronounced on
Wednesday, increased moisture content and organized bands of thunderstorms
associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Six are forecast to reach the
western and central Gulf Coast. This will increase the risk of heavy
rainfall and considerable flash flooding. At the moment, the greatest risk
for rainfall amounts up to 12 inches and numerous flash floods are
forecast throughout southern Louisiana. Life-threatening storm surge and
damaging winds are also possible from the Upper Texas Coast to the
Louisiana coastline as the system is forecast to reach hurricane strength
in the northwest Gulf of Mexico by midweek. Residents should ensure they
have their hurricane plan in place and check www.nhc.noaa.gov for the
latest forecast.

Dangerous heat is in the forecast for at least one additional day for
southern California and parts of the Southwest. Highs into the upper 90s
and triple digits have prompted Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat
Advisories to be issued, with a cooling trend set to commence by midweek.
The combination of above average temperatures, dry vegetation, and gusty
winds have resulted in elevated to critical fire weather concerns
throughout much of the Intermountain West through the next couple of days.
Additionally, current wildfires continue to pump smoke into the atmosphere
of the northern Great Basin, leading to poor air quality. This smoke is
also forecast to extend eastward in the mid-to-upper levels of the
atmosphere through the northern Plains and Ohio Valley, creating
noticeably hazy skies.

Elsewhere, well above average temperatures are expected across the
north-central U.S. as highs return to the upper 80s and low 90s, which
equates to around 10-15 degrees above average. Cooler, fall-like
temperatures will kickoff the new workweek throughout the Ohio Valley and
East until temperatures return to near normal by Wednesday as the dominant
high pressure system in place slowly slides eastward to the western
Atlantic.

While notable precipiation should be mostly sparse across the Lower 48
outside of the Gulf Coast, a few areas of locally heavy rain are possible
across the Northeast and Northwest through Wednesday. Isolated severe
thunderstorms are possible throughout Upstate New York today as a weak
cold front dives across the region, with some storms potentially
containing damaging wind gusts. Increasing precipitation chances are also
forecast to spread into the Northwest and Northern Rockies as a deep upper
low swings eastward from the northeast Pacific.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sun Sep 08 2024
Valid 12Z Sun Sep 08 2024 – 12Z Tue Sep 10 2024

…Dangerous heat continues to impact portions of southern California and
the Southwest through Monday…

…Heavy rain and scattered instances of flash flooding remain possible
along the Gulf Coast and parts of the Southeast over the next several
days…

…Below average temperatures forecast across much of the Midwest and East
through the beginning of the week…

Potentially dangerous and record-breaking heat is forecast to continue
across southern California as highs soar into the upper 90s and triple
digits away from the immediate coastline. Excessive Heat Warnings remain
in effect through Monday as a gradual cooldown commences on Tuesday. Highs
into the triple digits are also forecast throughout the remainder of the
Desert Southwest, but not considered as anomalous as values forecast
across southern California. Elsewhere, above average temperatures are
anticipated across the northern Great Basin and northern Plains as
upper-level ridging slides eastward. Heat will wane across eastern
Washington and neighboring states by Tuesday as the core of the
late-summer temperatures concentrate over the northern Plains. Highs in
the north-central U.S. are forecast to reach into the low-to-mid 90s early
this week, which equates to around 10 to 20 degrees above average for this
time of year. Additionally, sultry heat and humidity will impact southern
Florida once again today, where Heat Advisories have been issued due to
maximum heat indices forecast to near 110 degrees. Remember to follow
proper heat safety by staying hydrated, limiting strenuous outdoor
activity during peak daytime heating, and checking on vulnerable
individuals.

Much of the Nation is anticipated to be void of notable precipitation over
the next few days, with the Gulf Coast and parts of the Southeast being
the lone exception. A lingering stationary front and developing area of
low pressure in the western Gulf of Mexico will focus heavy rainfall
potential from the coastal Carolinas to the Florida Peninsula and entire
Gulf Coast region. Scattered flash flooding is possible where the heaviest
rainfall occurs, with urban and low-lying areas most at risk to flooding
impacts. Otherwise, isolated flash flooding is also possible in parts of
the Intermountain West through early this week due to widely scattered
thunderstorms developing in tandem with daytime heating.

Large surface high pressure extending from the southern Plains to the
Midwest and East throughout Tuesday will not only supply sunny and dry
conditions for much of the Lower 48, but well below average temperatures
as well. In fact, daily record lows are possible between the Midwest and
Mid-Atlantic this morning as temperatures dip into the 40s for most
locations. Patchy frost is possible in low lying protected areas. As this
autumnal airmass moderates somewhat early this week, afternoon
temperatures will gradually warm back into the mid-80s by Tuesday.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sat Sep 07 2024
Valid 12Z Sat Sep 07 2024 – 12Z Mon Sep 09 2024

…Dangerous heat continues to impact portions of the West this weekend…

…Heavy rain and scattered instances of flash flooding are possible along
the Gulf Coast and parts of the Southeast…

…Below average temperatures to settle in across much of the Midwest and
East through the beginning of next week…

A few more days of record-breaking and dangerous heat are in store for
parts of the West as well above average temperatures linger underneath a
weakening upper-level high pressure system. Areas most likely to
experience major to extreme HeatRisk (levels of heat that affect anyone
without effective cooling or adequate hydration) through Sunday include
southern California, the Desert Southwest, and the northern Great Basin.
These regions are also where Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories
remain in effect. High temperatures in the Southwest are expected to soar
into the upper 90s and triple digits, with 110s in the typically hottest
desert locations through at least Monday. Highs into the upper 90s are
forecast to simmer the northern Great Basin before a gradual cooling trend
commences by early next week, with the anomalously warm temperatures
forecast to shift eastward into the northern Plains. Residents and
visitors are advised to continue following proper heat safety. This
includes staying hydrated and avoiding extended periods of time outdoors
during the hottest parts of the day. Poor air quality will also remain a
concern for parts of the Great Basin as wildfire smoke continues to
overspread the region.

A stationary front extending from off the Southeast coastline to the
northern Gulf of Mexico will continue to provide a focus for numerous
showers and thunderstorms over the next few days as its moisture gradient
gets reinforced by a separate approaching cold front sinking southward
across the Deep South today. Areas of locally heavy rain and scattered
flash floods are possible from the coastal Carolinas to the central Gulf
Coast, including northern and central Florida. Greater concentration of
tropical downpours are anticipated to reorient to southern Texas by Monday
as an area of low pressure develops in the Bay of Campeche and ushers
elevated atmospheric moisture westward to the western Gulf Coast.

Elsewhere, a cold front sweeping across the East Coast today will produce
scattered showers and thunderstorms throughout the Northeast. Behind this
frontal boundary and underneath potent high pressure, below average and
crisp temperatures are expected to overspread much of the Great Lakes,
Midwest, and East this weekend. Widespread lows into the 40s will lead to
a few chilly mornings, with several daily record lows possible between
Missouri and New Jersey on Sunday. Patchy frost cannot be ruled out for
some locations. Conversely, southern Florida will remain hot and humid
this weekend as high temperatures rise into the low-to-mid 90s, while heat
indices approach 110 degrees.