Weather Forecast: Today, Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Five-Day Forecast for the World: posted February 18, 2023

Updated at 3:30 p.m. EST Saturday, February 18, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast. The article also provides information on the current Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) Event.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
306 PM EST Sat Feb 18 2023

Valid 00Z Sun Feb 19 2023 – 00Z Tue Feb 21 2023

…Locally heavy snow to spread across the high terrain of the Northern
Rockies and Northwest…

17 Feb2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street Opens Sharply Down Again, Closes Mixed As Investors Fear Bigger Rate Hikes

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 130 points or 0.39%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 0.58%,
  • S&P 500 closed down 0.27%,
  • Gold $1852 down $0.20,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $76 down $2.16,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.815% down 0.028 points,
  • USD $103.88 up $0.02,
  • Bitcoin $24,810 – 24H Change up $279.93 – Session Low $23,451
  • Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. -1 to 760 Canada -2 to 248

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.


Click here to read our Economic Forecast for February 2023


Today’s Economic Releases:

Interesting that import and export price inflation continues to significantly decline with year-over-year growth of import prices falling to 0.8% in January 2023 (from 3.0% in December) and export prices falling to 2.3% (from 4.3% in December). Falling energy prices were the main reason for the import price decline.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Oil Rig Count Dips As WTI Falls To $75
  • China’s Crude Oil Imports Expected To Hit A Record High In 2023
  • WTI Tumbles As Dollar And Crude Inventories Climb
  • Oil Prices Are Increasingly Influenced By U.S. Economic Data
  • Dow closes more than 100 points higher on Friday, but notches third straight week of losses on rate fears: Live updates
  • The week in inflation: Data signals higher prices, possibly more aggressive Fed
  • El-Erian Says Fed Needs To Raise 2% Inflation Target Or It Will “Crush The Economy”
  • Treasury Traders Know Fed Has Missed The Boat On A Bigger Move
  • Market Snapshot: Dow turns higher, S&P 500 heads for weekly losses as traders bet on more Fed rate hikes
  • Futures Movers: Oil prices log a weekly loss as interest rate-hike fears mount

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

NOAA Updates it’s Four-Season Outlook On February 16, 2023 – Potential El Niño impacts were considered in the outlooks for autumn 2023 and next winter

Updated at 3:05 p.m. EST February 17, 2023 to incorporate information on the latest Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event

On the third Thursday of the month right on schedule NOAA issued what I describe as their Four-Season Outlook. The information released also included the MId-Month Outlook for the single month of March plus the weather and drought outlook for the next three months.  I present the information issued and try to add context to it. It is quite a challenge for NOAA to address the subsequent month, the subsequent three-month period as well as successive three-month periods for a year or a bit more.

It is very useful to read the excellent discussion that NOAA issues with this Seasonal Outlook. The CPC/IRI analysis suggests that ENSO will very soon return to Neutral with a La Nino bias and gradually transition to true Neutral, Neutral with an El Nino bias, and then solidly El Nino. Confidence in the first part of that sequence of transitions is higher than in the latter part of the sequence.

Weather Forecast: Today, Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Five-Day Forecast for the World: posted February 17, 2023

Updated at 2:42 p.m. EST Friday, February 17, 2023 to incorporate information on the latest Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event. Updated at 3:34 p.m. EST Friday 17, 2023 to incorporate the afternoon NWS forecast.

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
227 PM EST Fri Feb 17 2023

Valid 00Z Sat Feb 18 2023 – 00Z Mon Feb 20 2023

…Locally heavy snow to spread across the high terrain of the Northern
Rockies and Northwest…

16 Feb2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street Opens Sharply Down, Closes At Session Bottom After A Futile Attempt To Climb Into The Green down As Fed Speakers Talk Up Bigger Rate Hikes

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 431 points or 1.26%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 1.78%,
  • S&P 500 closed down 1.38%,
  • Gold $1847 up $1.40,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $78 down $0.55,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.867% up 0.06 points,
  • USD $104.03 up $0.10,
  • Bitcoin $24,472 – 24H Change up $355.46 – Session Low $24,067

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.


Click here to read our Economic Forecast for February 2023


Today’s Economic Releases:

The Philly Fed’s Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey shows manufacturing activity in the region continued to decline. The diffusion index for current activity fell from a reading of -8.9 last month to -24.3 this month. The new orders index remained negative, and the shipments index remained positive but low. The employment index declined but remained positive, and the price indexes continued to suggest overall increases but were in line with long-run averages. Most of the survey’s future indicators were positive but low, suggesting tempered expectations for growth over the next six months.

The Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand rose 6.0% for the 12 months that ended January 2023 – down from 6.5% last month. In January, a 1.2% rise in prices for final-demand goods led to an advance in the final demand index. Prices for final demand services also moved higher, increasing by 0.4%. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the PPI are at nearly the same level. This data shows inflation is not going away quickly.

Privately‐owned housing units authorized by building permits in January 2023 were 27.3% below the January 2022 rate – up from -27.2% last month. Privately‐owned housing starts are 21.4% below the January 2022 rate – up from -22.5% last month. Privately‐owned housing completions are 12.8% above the January 2022 rate – up from the 5.0% last month. These improvements are considered modest, and unsure if this is the beginning of new trends.

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data today issued itsQuarterly Report on Household Debt and CreditThe Report shows an increase in total household debt in the fourth quarter of 2022, increasing by $394 billion (2.4%) to $16.90 trillion. Balances now stand $2.75 trillion higher than at the end of 2019, before the pandemic recession. The report is based on data from the New York Fed’s nationally representative Consumer Credit Panel.

In the week ending February 11, 4-week moving average was 189,500, an increase of 500 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised down by 250 from 189,250 to 189,000.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Electric Trucks Are Catching Up With Other EVs
  • China Sanctions U.S. Defense Companies Over Taiwan Gun Sales
  • Rising Metal And Mineral Prices Could Derail The Energy Transition
  • Rising Metal And Mineral Prices Could Derail The Energy Transition
  • Higher Gasoline Prices Drive U.S. Producer Price Index Higher
  • Stocks close lower, Dow sheds 400 points after another hot inflation report raises rate hike fears: Live updates
  • Bruce Willis’ ‘condition has progressed’ to frontotemporal dementia, his family says
  • Hawkish FedSpeak Hammers Stocks; Bitcoin Bid After ‘Bad’ Data

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Weather Forecast: Today, Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Five-Day Forecast for the World: posted February 16, 2023

Updated at 4:35 p.m. EST Wednesday February 16, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
244 PM EST Thu Feb 16 2023

Valid 00Z Fri Feb 17 2023 – 00Z Sun Feb 19 2023

…A stripe of snow, sleet, and freezing rain to stretch from the Great
Lakes to northern New England into Friday…

…Severe thunderstorms and flash flooding possible through tonight from
the Ohio/Tennessee valleys to the central Gulf Coast…

15 Feb2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street Repeats Last Session By Opening Lower, Closing Higher But The Dow Closed Flat As Traders Digest Strong Retail Sales Data

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 39 points or 0.11%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 0.92%,
  • S&P 500 closed up 0.28%,
  • Gold $1847 down $18.30,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $79 down $0.42,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.807% up 0.046 points,
  • USD $103.88 up $0.64,
  • Bitcoin $24,138 – 24H Change up $1,900.83 – Session Low $22,071

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.


Click here to read our Economic Forecast for February 2023


Today’s Economic Releases:

Industrial production continued its modest moderation in January 2023 showing growth of 0.8% year-over-year (down from 1.1% last month). The index was negatively affected by the utility portion of industrial production which declined from 9.1% last month to -8.9% this month – The output of utilities fell as a swing from unseasonably cool weather in December to unseasonably warm weather in January depressed the demand for heating.

Retail and food services sales for January 2023 are up 6.4% above January 2022 (blue line on the graph below). However, after inflation adjustment (red line on the graph below), sales improved from -0.8% year-over-year to 1.1% year-over-year. Retail trade sales (without food services) were up 3.9% above last year. Food services and drinking places were up 25.2% from January 2022, while general merchandise stores were up 4.5% from last year.

The Empire State Manufacturing Survey headline general business conditions index climbed twenty-seven points but remained negative at -5.8. New orders declined modestly, while shipments held steady. Delivery times shortened, and inventories edged higher. Employment levels declined for the first time since early in the pandemic, and the average workweek shortened for a third consecutive month.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Spanish Port Denies Maersk Tanker Entry Over Russian Oil Links
  • U.S. Shoots Down Iranian-Made Drone Conoco Gas Field In Syria
  • U.S. Weighs 200% Tariff On Russian Aluminum
  • Retail Sales Jump By Most In Nearly Two Years
  • Oil Falls After EIA Confirms Massive Crude Inventory Build
  • Natural Gas Futures Contracts Suggest Europe’s Energy Crisis Isn’t Over
  • Stocks close slightly higher, Nasdaq notches 3-day win streak as investors weigh retail sales and inflation data: Live updates
  • Retail sales jump 3% in January, smashing expectations despite inflation increase
  • Biggest Hedge Fund Bear Unleashes Epic Shorting Frenzy, Buys Millions In Puts On Dozens Of Meme And Crypto Stocks

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

Weather Forecast: Today, Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Five-Day Forecast for the World: posted February 15, 2023

Updated at 3:52 p.m. EST  Wednesday, February 15, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
317 PM EST Wed Feb 15 2023

Valid 00Z Thu Feb 16 2023 – 00Z Sat Feb 18 2023

…A swath of snow is forecast to stretch from the Four Corners to the
lower Great Lakes through early Friday as a low pressure system tracks
rapidly across the central part of the country…

…Strong to severe thunderstorms and areas of heavy rainfall will impact
portions of the Arklatex/Lower Mississippi Valley across the Mid-South and
into the Tennessee/Ohio Valley tonight through early Friday…

…Critical Fire Weather for the TX Big Bend…

14 Feb2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street Begins Session By Opening Sharply Down, Then Sea Sawing Sideways To Finally Closing Mixed

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 157 points or 0.46%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 0.57%,
  • S&P 500 closed down 0.03%,
  • Gold $1866 up $2.10,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $79 down $0.97,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.755% up 0.038 points,
  • USD $103.24 down $0.10,
  • Bitcoin $22,226 – 24H Change up $564.30 – Session Low $21,606

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.


Click here to read our Economic Forecast for February 2023


Today’s Economic Releases:

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) was little changed at 6.4%. The index for shelter was by far the largest contributor to the monthly all items increase, accounting for nearly half of the monthly all items increase, with the indexes for food, gasoline, and natural gas also contributing. The food index increased 0.5 percent over the month with the food at home index rising 0.4 percent. The energy index increased 2.0 percent over the month as all major energy component indexes rose over the month. The markets expected a smaller inflation number.

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index increased 0.5 points in January to 90.3, remaining below the 49-year average of 98. Down six points from last month, 26% of owners reported inflation was their single most important problem in operating their business. Owners expecting better business conditions over the next six months improved six points from December to a net negative 45%. NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg stated:

While inflation is starting to ease for small businesses, owners remain cynical about future business conditions. Owners have a negative outlook on the small business economy but continue to try to fill open positions and return to a full staff to improve productivity.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Copper Prices Flatline As Chinese Demand Struggles To Recover
  • OPEC Raises World Oil Demand Forecast For 2023
  • U.S. Inflation Drops Again, But Further Rate Hikes May Be Needed
  • Tanker Rates Soar 400% On Latest Round Of EU Sanctions On Russia
  • Chinese Wind And Solar Output Is Nearly Equal To Household Demand
  • Here’s the breakdown of the inflation report for January — in one chart
  • Iconic Hedge Funds Amassing Big Positions In Most Shorted Stock, As Soros Reveals Levered Short
  • Market Snapshot: U.S. stocks trade mixed as Nasdaq, S&P 500 edge higher after hotter-than-expected inflation report stokes higher interest rate concerns
  • Futures Movers: Oil traders hit ‘sell button’ with U.S. set to release more crude from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.