Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 337 points or 1.02%,
• Nasdaq closed down 1.69%,
• S&P 500 closed down 1.05%,
• Gold $1819 down $8.10,
• WTI crude oil settled at $77 up $1.15,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.953% up 0.072 points,
• USD $105.23 up $0.64,
• Bitcoin $23,247 – 24H Change down $709.07 – Session Low $22,966
• Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. -7 to 753 Canada -4 to 244

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for February 2023

Today’s Economic Releases:

Real disposable personal income (DPI) increased 1.4% month-over-month (up 2.8% year-over-year – red line on the graph below) and real personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased 1.1% month-over-month (up 2.4% year-over-year – blue line on the graph below). These are inflation-adjusted numbers. and is far from showing recessionary tendencies. However, inflation has shown little moderation (green line on the graph below) which means the Fed’s efforts to curb inflation are not having a significant effect.

Sales of new single‐family houses in January 2023 were 7.2% above the revised December rate of 625,000 but 19.4% below the January 2022 estimate of 831,000. The median sales price of new houses sold in January 2023 was $427,500. The average sales price was $474,400. Looks like a nice jump in houses sold at a lower price – but clearly the higher mortgage rates are affecting this sector.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 109 points or 0.33%,
• Nasdaq closed up 0.72%,
• S&P 500 closed up 0.53%,
• Gold $1830 down $11.20,
• WTI crude oil settled at $76 up $1.52,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.879% down 0.044 points,
• USD $104.55 down $0.03,
• Bitcoin $23,938 – 24H Change up $98.41 – Session Low $23,678

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for February 2023

Today’s Economic Releases:

Real gross domestic product (GDP) second estimate increased at an annual rate of 2.7% in 4Q2022. In the advance estimate for 4Q2022, the increase in real GDP was 2.9%. The updated estimates primarily reflected a downward revision to consumer spending that was partly offset by an upward revision to nonresidential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, were revised up. I prefer to view Real GDP as the percent increase from the same period one year ago which shows a continued moderation – now only 0.9% year-over-year.

Led by improvements in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) rose to +0.23 in January from –0.46 in December. Three of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index made positive contributions in January, and three categories improved from December. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3 (purple line on the graph below), moved up to –0.26 in January from –0.34 in December. The CFNAI-MA3 is used for economic forecasting and it is showing a slow growth economy but not recessionary.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 85 points or 0.26%,
• Nasdaq closed up 0.13%,
• S&P 500 closed down 0.16%,
• Gold $1833 down $9.20,
• WTI crude oil settled at $74 down $2.47,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.923% down 0.003 points,
• USD $104.56 up $0.38,
• Bitcoin $23,815 – 24H Change down $672.88 – Session Low $23,612

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for February 2023

Today’s Economic Releases:

The Federal Reserve issued their meeting minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee‘s meeting on January 31 through February 1, 2023. There was nothing particularly noteworthy in these minutes, Highlights include:

… Participants agreed that cumulative policy firming to date had reduced demand in the most interest-rate-sensitive sectors of the economy, particularly housing. Participants observed that growth in economic activity in 2022 had been below its longer-run trend and expected that real GDP growth would slow further in 2023. …

… In their discussion of the household sector, participants observed that real consumer spending had declined in November and December—in part reflecting the tightening in financial conditions over the past year—and anticipated that consumption would likely grow at a subdued rate in 2023. …

… Regarding the business sector, participants observed that growth in business fixed investment spending had been subdued in the fourth quarter and was being restrained by past interest rate increases. A number of participants commented that supply bottlenecks continued to ease, al­though supply chain issues remained a challenge in some sectors. …

… Participants agreed that the labor market remained very tight and assessed that labor demand substantially exceeded the supply of available workers. …

… A number of participants commented that the costs of elevated inflation are particularly high for lower-income households. Participants noted that inflation data received over the past three months showed a welcome reduction in the monthly pace of price increases but stressed that substantially more evidence of progress across a broader range of prices would be required to be confident that inflation was on a sustained downward path. …

… Participants observed that the uncertainty associated with their outlooks for economic activity, the labor market, and inflation was high. Regarding upside risks to inflation, participants cited a variety of factors, including the possibility that price pressures could prove to be more persistent than anticipated due to, for example, the labor market staying tight for longer than anticipated …

A summary of headlines we are reading today: