Weather Outlook for the U.S. for Today Through at Least 22 Days and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted November 18, 2024

November 18, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks (up to four weeks) and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Mon Nov 18 2024
Valid 12Z Mon Nov 18 2024 – 12Z Wed Nov 20 2024

…A potent storm system over the central U.S. today will create chances
for heavy rainfall, severe thunderstorms, and gusty winds, while moderate
snowfall is possible across the northern Plains by Tuesday…

…Heavy rain and flash flooding potential exists throughout the central
and eastern Gulf Coast over the next few days…

…Powerful Pacific low pressure system to impact the Northwest with high
winds and heavy mountain snow, while an atmospheric river takes aim at
northern California by Wednesday…

An amplified weather pattern and two separate strong storm systems are set
to impact the Nation during the first half of this week. First, a deep low
pressure system ejecting out of West Texas early this morning is
anticipated to further organize over the central U.S. today and produce
areas of heavy rain, severe weather, and gusty winds to the
southern/central Plains. Thunderstorms forming along an attached cold
front may contain damaging winds and perhaps a few tornadoes between
central Oklahoma and North Texas today. This region is where the Storm
Prediction Center has hoisted a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe
thunderstorms. As the system progresses northward into the Upper Midwest
on Tuesday, showers are also forecast to spread north throughout parts of
the Midwest and Great Lakes. Meanwhile, cold air working into the western
side of the storm will likely allow for precipitation to fall as snow
across parts of North Dakota and northern Minnesota into Wednesday.
Snowfall may also be accompanied by gusty winds, leading to lower
visibility on roadways. Current snowfall probabilities for at least 4
inches of snow are greatest (70-90%) across north-central North Dakota.

As the associated cold front pushes eastward through Tuesday, numerous
showers and thunderstorms interacting with a surge of moisture being
lifted northward from the Gulf of Mexico could contain intense rainfall
rates capable of producing flash flooding. Heavy rainfall is most likely
tonight across eastern Louisiana and southern Mississippi, with the threat
expanding east to the Florida Panhandle on Tuesday. Scattered flash floods
are most likely throughout low-lying and urban regions. Residents and
visitors are reminded to have multiple ways to receive warnings and never
drive across flooded roadways.

For much of the Northwest, northern Great Basin, and northern Rockies, a
cold front pushing across the region today and enhanced onshore flow will
allow for unsettled weather to continue ahead of a powerful storm system
forecast to develop off the coast of the Northwest on Tuesday. This
appetizer of precipitation to start the workweek will mainly include the
potential for moderate to heavy snowfall across the Cascades and northern
Rockies. However, by Tuesday night the rapidly strengthening Pacific low
pressure system will aid in producing high winds across the Pacific
Northwest and increasing precipitation intensity. Wind gusts up to 70 mph
are possible across parts of northern California and Oregon, with strong
winds also expected over parts of western Washington. These winds will
have the potential to knock down trees and produce power outages. Heavy
snowfall with amounts potentially exceeding two feet are possible over the
northern California ranges and Cascades. By Wednesday, an associated
atmospheric rive event is expected to take shape and direct continuous
Pacific moisture towards northern California and southwest Oregon.
Widespread rainfall amounts of 4 to 7 inches are expected through
Wednesday across this region, which could produce areas of river flooding
and increase the risk of mudslides. Heavy rain and the associated weather
hazards from this atmospheric river event are also expected to continue
beyond midweek.

Below average temperatures are forecast to remain over much of the western
U.S. over the next few days while gradually spreading eastward into the
Great Plains. Meanwhile, high pressure over the East will continue to
create mild and dry conditions through Tuesday as rainfall chances enter
the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast on Wednesday.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

Weather Outlook for the U.S. for Today Through at Least 22 Days and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted November 17, 2024

November 17, 2024Posted inUncategorizedNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks (up to four weeks) and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sun Nov 17 2024
Valid 12Z Sun Nov 17 2024 – 12Z Tue Nov 19 2024

…Widespread precipitation expected across the Northwest and northern
Rockies, including heavy mountain snow for parts of the region…

…A strong area of low pressure will bring periods of heavy rain, gusty
winds, and the potential for severe thunderstorms throughout the southern
to central Plains between tonight and Monday…

…Heavy rain and scattered instances of flash flooding possible early
this week across the central and eastern Gulf Coast…

An inland progressing cold front and associated onshore flow off the
Pacific Ocean will aid in producing widespread precipitation over the next
few days across the Northwest and northern Rockies. Moderate to locally
heavy rain is possible across coastal sections of Washington and Oregon,
while heavy snow is likely throughout the Cascades and high terrain of
northern Idaho and western Montana. Meanwhile, a much stronger storm
system and corresponding atmospheric river is anticipated to begin
impacting the Northwest Tuesday night. Strong winds and heavy rainfall are
possible from northern California to Washington, with potential impacts
including scattered flooding and power outages, as well as heavy mountain
snowfall.

A strong area of low pressure is also forecast to produce numerous weather
hazards across the central U.S. beginning tonight. The strengthening storm
system is expected to organize over West Texas and push into the central
Plains by Monday. On the east side of this storm a strong surge of
atmospheric moisture content from the western Gulf of Mexico will aid in
creating an environment ripe for thunderstorm development, particularly
across western/central Texas and southwest Oklahoma into early Monday.
This region is where the Storm Prediction Center currently highlights the
best potential for damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes. A draped
stationary boundary extending from the central Plains into the low
pressure center will allow for a corridor of focused heavy rainfall and
the possibility of scattered flash flooding. Flood Watches are in effect
from northwest Texas to central Oklahoma in order to highlight this
concern. As the anomalously deep system moves northward on Tuesday,
rainfall chances will also spread northward into the Upper Midwest. Snow
is also likely to develop across parts of North Dakota and could be heavy
at time through Wednesday morning. Additionally, a tight pressure gradient
associated with this area of low pressure could create periods of strong
winds throughout the central U.S. early this week.

Heavy rainfall is also a concern throughout the central and eastern Gulf
Coast early this week as an approaching cold front interacts with a surge
of tropical moisture associated with Tropical Storm Sara as it dissipates
over Belize today. This elevated atmospheric moisture content is
anticipated to allow for areas of heavy rainfall between eastern Louisiana
and the Florida Panhandle, with high chances (70-90%) for widespread
rainfall amounts of at least 2 inches.

Temperatures anomalies are forecast to split the Nation in half over the
next few days as below normal temperatures dominate the West, while above
normal readings remain in the East. Dry conditions can be anticipated
along much of the East Coast, central High Plains, and Southwest through
Wednesday morning.

[Image of rainfall potential]

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

Our Report on the JAMSTEC Three-Season Forecast – Can be Compared to the NOAA Outlook – Posted on Nov 16, 2024

November 16, 2024Posted inUncategorizedNo Comments

The Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, or JAMSTEC, is a Japanese national research institute for marine-earth science and technology

From the JAMSTEC Discussion:

“Recent observations show weak signs of La Niña. The SINTEX-F ensemble mean predicts that a weak La Niña Modoki will develop during the boreal winter, but there is uncertainty in the timing and amplitude of the event. The tropical Pacific will then be in a neutral state during the boreal spring and summer.”

Although it is a World forecast, it includes a forecast for North America since North America is part of the World. One might try to compare it to the NOAA Outlook when we publish the NOAA Outlook.

First, we take a look at the forecasted sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA). JAMSTEC starts by forecasting the SSTA and Nino 3.4 Index on the first day of the month and from there it usually takes their models about two weeks to produce their seasonal forecast. I received it from JAMSTEC on November 12,  2024  which is before NOAA has issued their four-season update this month.  The JAMSTEC model runs are based on conditions as of November 1, 2024. The NOAA Seasonal Outlook is based on conditions closer to the time when it will be issued.

We have a full three-season forecast from JAMSTEC this month. We have forecast maps for  DJF, MAM and JJA so it is really a three-season forecast.

We also have single-month JAMASTEC forecasts for December 2025 through May 2025 . I do not have the NOAA four season outlook yet so I could not do the comparisons but I might try doing that when the NOAA four-season Outlook is published.

Let’s take a look at the JAMSTEC three-season forecast.

This shows their forecast of sea surface temperature anomalies at three points in time. Blue is a cold anomaly and is associated with La Nina if it occurs in the Nino 3.4 measurement areas in the Pacific along the Equator. The cool anomaly along the Equator is somewhat further west than usual which gives it the Modoki characteristics.

The U.S.  funded some of the Modoki research but for some reason declines to mention it in their seasonal outlook discussions.

In the DJF image above, look at that blob of cool (anomaly) water to the west along the Equator. Thus the La Nina has Modoki characteristics that impact the Walker circulation. I have written about that before. It raises questions about the reliability of our current approach to thinking about the ENSO Cycle. This is covered in another article that can be accessed HERE.  It was also discussed in the most recent ENSO Update in the article by Emily Becker. That article can be accessed HERE.

Of interest also is the neutrally cold water just off the West Coast of the U.S. and the warm water between Africa and the north coast of South America which can support tropical storms and hurricanes.

NOAA  publishes a similar SSTA  analysis. It can be accessed  HERE.

JAMSTEC uses the same definition of Normal (climatology) as NOAA. JAMSTEC does a better job at characterizing La Ninas and El Ninos than NOAA. JAMSTEC provides me with a lot of other information that I do not include in my articles to keep them to a manageable size for readers. That material is the atmospheric pressure patterns.

This month we have the JAMSTEC three-season forecast before the NOAA  four-season forecast was issued. We will do the comparisons in the article on the NOAA four-season forecast which we will publish next Friday.

Some Readers will have to click on “Read More” to read the rest of the article which you need to read to see the forecasts. I can only include a certain amount of material in the lede.

Weather Outlook for the U.S. for Today Through at Least 22 Days and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted November 16, 2024

November 16, 2024Posted inUncategorizedNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks (up to four weeks) and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sat Nov 16 2024
Valid 12Z Sat Nov 16 2024 – 12Z Mon Nov 18 2024

…Periods of heavy coastal rain and mountain snow to impact the Northwest
this weekend, with heavy snow also spreading into the Northern Rockies…

…Heavy rain and severe weather potential to develop over the Southern
Plains Sunday night…

…Elevated fire weather concerns will continue across parts of the
Northeast through this weekend…

Unsettled weather is in store for the Pacific Northwest and Northern
Rockies through early next week as a strong cold front moves inland later
today and leads to a consistent flow of Pacific moisture into the region.
Heavy coastal rain can be expected throughout western Oregon and
Washington, with heavy snow in the higher elevations of the Olympic and
Cascade mountains. Winter Storm Warnings are in effect starting today
across the Cascades due to forecast snowfall accumulations up to 2 feet.
Mountain snow is also anticipated to expand eastward into the Northern
Rockies by late tonight. Meanwhile, a separate area of low pressure racing
out of the Northern Plains today ahead of the Pacific Northwest system may
produce a swath of moderate snow of its own, with the medium chances
(40-60%) for at least 4 inches of snow across northeast Montana and
northwest North Dakota.

By Sunday night, a blossoming precipitation shield is forecast to impact
the southern Plains in response to a rapidly strengthening low pressure
system. This anomalously strong area of low pressure will help surge ample
atmospheric moisture content northward into a draped stationary boundary
and produce areas of heavy rain from North Texas and the Texas Panhandle
through central Oklahoma into eastern Kansas by Monday. Scattered
instances of flash flooding are possible. Additionally, thunderstorms may
become severe as an attached cold front pushes across the Lone Star State,
with a risk damaging wind gusts and possibly a tornado or two into Monday
morning.

Dry conditions and gradually warming temperatures can be expected across
the eastern U.S. through early next week in response to a large high
pressure system sliding to the East Coast by Monday. While this is great
news for outdoor fall activities, there remains elevated fire weather
concerns throughout New England and the Northeast this weekend due to
recent increasing drought conditions and breezy northwest winds. Red Flag
Warnings continue for much of the highly populated I-95 corridor from
Philadelphia to Boston.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

15 NOV 2024 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Markets Opened Sharply Down Turning The Post-Election Pause Into A Large Pothole In The Road: How Long Will It Remain?

November 15, 2024Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 306 points or 0.70%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 428 points or 2.24%,
  • S&P 500 closed down 79 points or 1.32%,
  • Gold $2,568 down $4.70 or 0.19%,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $67 down $1.71 or 2.49%,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.441 up 0.021 points or 0.475%,
  • USD index $106.90 up $0.42 or 0.39%,
  • Bitcoin $91,327 up $1,624 or 4.58%, (24 Hours), (New Bitcoin Historic high 93,383)
  • Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. -1 584 Canada -7 to 200
    U.S. Rig Count is down 1 from last week to 584 with oil rigs down 1 to 478, gas rigs down 1 to 101 and miscellaneous rigs up 1 to 5.

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing

Today’s Highlights

US stocks experienced significant declines on Friday, leading to steep weekly losses as investors processed Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s indication that the central bank is not rushing to implement interest rate cuts. The major indexes all fell sharply. Powell’s hawkish comments dampened market sentiment, erasing much of the initial optimism surrounding President-elect Donald Trump’s policy agenda. The S&P 500 has already retraced about one-third of its post-election gains. For the week the S&P 500 lost over 2%, the Dow shed 1.2%, and the Nasdaq logged a 3.2% decline. Traders are now reassessing expectations for rate cuts. The probability of a December rate cut has fallen to 62%, down from 72% the previous day. The January rate cut odds decreased to 74% from 81%. Adding to the hawkish tone, retail sales data released Friday showed continued strength in consumer spending. Investors are also closely watching Trump’s transition plans, including potential cabinet appointments that could impact certain sectors.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – November 2024 Economic Forecast: Our Index Marginally Declines – We Are Stuck With The Crappy Economy We Have Seen So Far This Year

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The latest Survey of Professional Forecasters conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia indicates an improved near-term outlook for the U.S. economy compared to three months ago. The economy is predicted to expand at an annual rate of 2.2% in Q4 2024 and 1.9% in Q1 2025, up from previous estimates of 1.7% for both quarters. Real GDP growth is expected to be 2.7% in 2024 and 2.2% in 2025 on an annual-average basis. The unemployment rate forecast remains largely unchanged from the previous survey. Projections show the unemployment rate increasing from 4.0% in 2024 to 4.3% in 2025, then decreasing to 4.1% in 2027. Job gains are expected to continue at a steady pace. Forecasters project monthly job gains of 208,400 in 2024 and 134,100 in 2025. These projections suggest a more optimistic view of economic growth in the near term, with stable labor market conditions expected to persist.

Median Forecasts for Selected Variables in the Current and Previous Surveys

Real GDP (%) Unemployment Rate (%) Payrolls (000s/month)
Previous New Previous New Previous New
Quarterly data:
2024:Q4 1.7 2.2 4.3 4.2 125.4 138.8
2025:Q1 1.7 1.9 4.3 4.2 128.7 123.7
2025:Q2 1.8 1.8 4.3 4.3 116.2 117.2
2025:Q3 2.2 2.2 4.3 4.2 145.8 114.2
2025:Q4 N.A. 2.0 N.A. 4.3 N.A. 128.2
Annual data (projections are based on annual-average levels):
2024 2.6 2.7 4.1 4.0 210.1 208.4
2025 1.9 2.2 4.3 4.3 130.0 134.1
2026 2.3 2.1 4.2 4.2 N.A. N.A.
2027 2.0 2.1 4.2 4.1 N.A. N.A.

Advance estimates of unadjusted U.S. retail and food services sales for October 2024 were up 4.6% from October 2023 (3.3% inflation adjusted). This was a broad based increase across all sectors of retail sales.

Industrial production (IP) decreased 0.3% year-over-year in October 2024. According to the Federal Reserve, the Boeing strike slowed IP growth by an estimated 0.3 percentage point in September and 0.2 percentage point in October – whilst Hurricane Milton and the lingering effects of Hurricane Helene together reduced October IP growth 0.1 percentage point. For the components of IP, note that growth in manufacturing was down 0.3% year-over-year, mining was down 1.5% year-over-year, and utility growth was up 1.5% year-over-year.  Capacity utilization moved down to 77.1 percent in October, a rate that is 2.6 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2023) average. My position remains that manufacturing is in a recession.

Imported prices rose to 0.8% in October 2024 (2.3% excluding fuels). Export prices contracted 0.1%. Notice that the import prices less fuel rate of increase has been steadily growing (black line on the graph below) – and that is now growing into a major source of inflation into the economy. Almost 30% of consumer goods are imported.

The New York Fed’s Empire State Manufacturing Survey‘s headline general business conditions index shot up forty-three points to 31.2, its highest reading in nearly three years. New orders and shipments rose substantially. Delivery times were slightly longer, while supply availability was somewhat lower. Remember this is a survey, and I will not conceded that manufacturing has magically jumped to the highest level in three years from a negative number one month ago. Really do not like surveys.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Why Musk Supports Trump’s Plan to Axe EV Tax Credits
  • U.S. Rig Count Sees Small Drop
  • Space Junk: The Unseen Crisis Threatening Earth’s Ecosystems
  • Bearish Sentiment Is Dominating Oil Markets
  • Carbon Credit Dispute Overshadows Early Progress at COP29
  • Libya’s Fragile Peace Is Under Threat Again
  • The Strong Dollar Is Back and Weighing on Oil Prices
  • Dow closes 300 points lower Friday as rate worries hinder postelection rally: Live updates
  • Palantir jumps 9% to a record after announcing move to Nasdaq
  • Super Micro faces deadline to keep Nasdaq listing after 85% plunge in stock
  • Processed food stocks fall as investors brace for increased scrutiny under Trump, RFK Jr.
  • Bitcoin rises over 16% in a week on hopes of crypto-friendly U.S. policy: CNBC Crypto World
  • Consumers Are Drowning In Debt As Hordes Of Businesses Fail All Over The US
  • Investors are bracing for higher-for-even-longer interest rates
  • Treasury yields finish mixed as spike in rates sparks buying demand

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

NOAA Updates its ENSO Alert on November 14, 2024 – We Remain in ENSO Neutral or do We?– Published November 15, 2024

November 15, 2024Posted inUncategorizedNo Comments

“Synopsis:   “In summary, La Niña is most likely to emerge in October-December 2024 (57% chance) and is expected to persist through January-March 2025).”

So we are really in ENSO Neutral but NOAA may not want to admit their forecast was wrong so they present it as waiting for La Nina. It is correct that we are in La Nina Watch but it is also correct that we currently remain in ENSO Neutral.

On the second Thursday of every month, NOAA (really their Climate Prediction Center CPC) issues its analysis of the status of ENSO. This includes determining the Alert System Status.  NOAA now describes their conclusion as “ENSO Alert System Status: La Nino Watch”

The exact timing of the transition is now perhaps more clear which should increase the reliability of the Seasonal Outlook to be issued next Thursday.

We have included an ENSO Blog article by Emily  Becker. It raises the question which I have raised before. With Global Warming, are we measuring the phases of ENSO correctly? This is a very important question. We will discuss this graphic which is provided by Emily Becker.

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER ENSO DISCUSSION (LINK)

The second paragraph is what is important:

The IRI plume predicts a weak and short duration La Niña, as indicated by the Niño-3.4 index values less than -0.5°C. The latest North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) forecasts are cooler than the IRI plume and predict a weak La Niña.  Due to this guidance and La Niña-like atmospheric circulation anomalies over the tropics, the team still favors the onset of La Niña, but it is likely to remain weak and have a shorter duration than other historical episodes.  A weak La Niña would be less likely to result in conventional winter impacts, though predictable signals could still influence the forecast guidance (e.g., CPC’s seasonal outlooks).  In summary, La Niña is most likely to emerge in October-December 2024 (57% chance) and is expected to persist through January-March 2025).

Below is the middle paragraph from the discussion last month.

“The IRI plume predicts a weak and a short duration La Niña, as indicated by the Niño-3.4 index values less than -0.5°C. The latest North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) forecasts were warmer this month, but still predict a weak La Niña.  As a result of the warmer predictions and the recent weakening of equatorial trade winds, the team still favors a weak event, but has lowered the chances of La Niña.  A weaker La Niña implies that it would be less likely to result in conventional winter impacts, though predictable signals could still influence the forecast guidance (e.g., CPC’s seasonal outlooks).  In summary, La Niña is favored to emerge in September-November (60% chance) and is expected to persist through January-March 2025).”

We now provide additional details.

CPC Probability Distribution

Here are the new forecast probabilities. The probabilities are for three-month periods e.g. ASO  stands for August/September/October.

Here is the forecast from last month.

The analysis this month and last month are a bit different with again the transition to La Nina being slightly slower than thought last month. Also, the probabilities of a La Nina are lower than estimated last month. This seems to be a trend. The chart is clearer than the discussion in the summary report above.  The La Nina is a bit slower to arrive. I am not sure that we will actually have a La Nina.  However, one should read the Emily Becker article, which is discussed later in this article.

Some will need to click on “Read More” to read the rest of this article.

Weather Outlook for the U.S. for Today Through at Least 22 Days and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted November 15, 2024

November 15, 2024Posted inUncategorizedNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks (up to four weeks) and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Fri Nov 15 2024
Valid 12Z Fri Nov 15 2024 – 12Z Sun Nov 17 2024

…Unsettled weather persists throughout much of the West today before the
next strong storm system enters the Pacific Northwest on Saturday…

…Elevated fire weather concerns continue across parts of the Northeast…

…Next round of heavy rain and severe weather potential to develop over
the Southern Plains late Sunday…

The end of the workweek and upcoming weekend will have plenty of potential
weather hazards scattered across the Nation as we reach the midway point
of November. A system crossing the Intermountain West today will continue
to bring areas of moderate snowfall from the central Sierra Nevada to the
Northern Rockies into Saturday. The highest elevations have high chances
(>70%) for at least 4 inches of snowfall and coincide with where Winter
Weather Advisories have been issued. Precipitation is also possible across
the Northern Plains on Saturday as an area of low pressure crosses the
region, with a mix of rain and snow at times. This system will also have
the potential to produce periods of strong winds across parts of the
Montana Front Range on Saturday. As the weekend begins, a strong frontal
boundary and surge of Pacific moisture is set to move inland across the
Pacific Northwest and bring the potential for heavy coastal/lowland
rainfall and snow to the Washington and Oregon Cascades. In fact, Winter
Storm Watches have been hoisted for the Cascades due to the potential for
total snow accumulations of 1 to 2 feet, with locally higher snow amounts
over the highest peaks.

For the East, two separate storm systems brushing coastal regions while a
large area of high pressure builds into the Great Lakes and slides over
the Appalachians by Sunday will drive weather conditions through this
weekend. Gusty winds and locally heavy rain are possible along the Outer
Banks of North Carolina and surrounding Mid-Atlantic coastline today due
to a rapidly deepening, but quickly exiting, low pressure system. Showers
and strong winds will be short-lived as the storm races eastward into the
open Atlantic by tonight, with breezy conditions remaining due to a tight
pressure gradient related to high pressure over the Great Lakes. A
separate storm system swinging into the Canadian Maritimes will produce
showers over parts of Maine, with a light glaze of freezing rain possible
today where temperatures hang just below the freezing mark. In between
these two system will remain a very dry and breezy Northeast, prompting an
additional few days of fire weather concerns. Conditions will remain ripe
for developing wildfires through at least Saturday thanks to a stiff
northwest breeze and low relative humidity, including major I-95 cities
between Philadelphia and Boston.

By late this weekend the next rainmaker for the Southern Plains is
forecast to develop as an organizing low pressure system strengthens over
West Texas Sunday night. This system is then forecast to move
northeastward into Monday morning and spread numerous showers and
thunderstorms between the Texas Panhandle/North Texas to central Oklahoma.
Periods of heavy rain may lead to areas of flash flooding, especially in
urban and poor drainage locations. A few strong thunderstorms may also
have the potential to contain large hail, frequent lightning, and damaging
wind gusts.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

14 NOV 2024 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Markets Opened Fractionally Higher, Then began To Trend Down Where The Three Main Indexes Slipped Moderately Into The Red

November 14, 2024Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 207 points or 0.47%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 123 points or 0.64%,
  • S&P 500 closed down 36 points or 0.60%,
  • Gold $2,573 down $13.10 or 0.52%,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $69 up $0.13 or 0.19%,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.445 down 0.006 points or 0.135%,
  • USD index $106.90 up $0.42 or 0.39%,
  • Bitcoin $87,800 down $1,624 or 1.85%, (24 Hours)

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing

Today’s Highlights

The US stock market experienced a downturn as the post-election rally lost momentum. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s comments were a primary driver of market sentiment. He emphasized that the central bank is not in a “hurry” to lower interest rates and the US economy remains strong. The Fed will be “watching carefully” to ensure inflation stays within an acceptable range. Republican party maintained its House majority, creating a “trifecta” of political control that could facilitate President-elect Trump’s economic agenda. This agenda caused Tesla to drop over 5% after reports suggested eliminating the $7,500 EV tax credit. In addition, Moderna and Novavax declined after reports of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. potentially leading the Department of Health and Human Service.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – November 2024 Economic Forecast: Our Index Marginally Declines – We Are Stuck With The Crappy Economy We Have Seen So Far This Year

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Following the growth of the Consumer Price Index yesterday, the Producer Price Index (PPI) grew from 1.9% year-over-year to 2.4% in October 2024. The services portion of the PPI grew from 3.3% to 3.5% year-over-year and the goods portion of the PPI grew from -1.2% to 0.2% year-over-year. The PPI less food and energy grew from 3.0% to 3.1% year-over-year. Historically, I have defended the various inflation indices but their understatement of inflation is becoming persistent. I believed in 2024, it was a political decision to understate inflation but for now I will go with the historical rationale:

Several factors contribute to the possibility that official inflation statistics understate true inflation:

  1. Methodological changes: The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has made significant changes to CPI calculation methods over the years, which some critics argue have led to lower reported inflation rates 1 3.
  2. Substitution bias: The CPI’s fixed basket approach may not fully account for consumers substituting between goods when prices change, potentially understating inflation 3.
  3. Quality adjustments: The use of “hedonic adjustments” to account for product improvements may artificially lower reported inflation 4.
  4. Exclusion of asset prices: The CPI does not include asset inflation, such as rising stock or real estate prices, which can significantly impact overall cost of living 4.
  5. Subjective weighting: The relative importance of items in the CPI basket can be adjusted, potentially hiding sharp price increases in essential goods 4

Evidence of Understatement:

  1. Alternative calculations: Some economists, using different methodologies, have estimated significantly higher inflation rates than official figures. For example, in 2006, while the official CPI showed a 2.2% increase, alternative estimates ranged from 5.3% to 8.2% 5.
  2. Historical comparisons: Calculations using older CPI formulas suggest that current inflation rates could be nearly double the officially reported figures 2
  3. Divergence from personal experience: Many consumers report experiencing higher price increases than official statistics indicate, suggesting a potential disconnect between CPI and real-world inflation 4

If inflation is indeed understated, there could be several significant consequences:

  1. Monetary policy: Central banks may make suboptimal decisions regarding interest rates and monetary stimulus based on inaccurate inflation data 4
  2. Government spending: Many government payments, such as Social Security, are tied to CPI. Lower reported inflation could result in reduced payments to citizens 5
  3. Investment returns: Investors may experience lower real returns than expected if true inflation is higher than reported 5
  4. Economic planning: Inaccurate inflation data can make financial planning more difficult for individuals and businesses 4

In the week ending November 9, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted unemployment initial claims 4-week moving average was 221,000, a decrease of 6,250 from the previous week’s unrevised average of 227,250. This data shows no signs of an economic slowdown.

In a speech today, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell provided an overview of the current state of the U.S. economy and the Fed’s monetary policy stance. A summary of his speech: The U.S. economy has shown remarkable resilience and growth: GDP grew by over 3% last year and is expanding at a 2.5% rate this year. Consumer spending remains strong. Business investment has accelerated. The labor market is in solid condition, with unemployment at 4.1%. Significant strides have been made in controlling inflation: Total PCE prices rose 2.3% over the 12 months ending in October. Core PCE prices increased by 2.8%. Inflation is moving closer to the Fed’s 2% goal, though not there yet. The Fed is carefully adjusting its policy stance. We recently lowered the policy interest rate by 1/4 percentage point. We are moving towards a more neutral policy setting. Will assess incoming data, evolving outlook, and balance of risks for future decisions. Not in a hurry to lower rates due to current economic strength. Powell expressed confidence in maintaining economic strength while bringing inflation down to 2%. The Fed remains committed to its dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability, aiming to achieve these goals without causing a significant rise in unemployment.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • 3 Critical Challenges in the Transition to Net-Zero
  • Trump’s Second Term Could Present Challenges and Opportunities for the Caucasus
  • Oil Jumps on Fuel Inventory Draws
  • Rubio’s Vision: A Pragmatic Approach to American Foreign Policy
  • Germany Warns Import Terminals to Refuse Deliveries of Russian LNG
  • Powell says the Fed doesn’t need to be ‘in a hurry’ to reduce interest rates
  • Here’s the deflation breakdown for October 2024 — in one chart
  • Dow drops 200 points as postelection rally sputters, Fed Chair Powell signals caution on rate cuts: Live updates
  • Greenlight’s David Einhorn says the markets are broken and getting worse
  • Wholesale prices rose 0.2% in October, in line with expectations
  • The House just voted ‘yes’ on a bill that would increase Social Security checks for some pensioners
  • 2-year Treasury yield jumps after the close, with Powell patient about rate cuts

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.