Book Review: ‘Who Will Defend Europe? An Awakened Russia and a Sleeping Continent’

November 3, 2024Posted inopinionNo Comments

Despite frequent US calls to lift defence spending, most of NATO’s European members pocketed a ‘peace dividend’ in recent years by reducing their armed forces and defence industries. They imagined that war would never return to Europe and that, in any event, they could rely on the US to ensure their national security.

Both of these assumptions were illusory, as Keir Giles argues in a new book, Who Will Defend Europe? Giles is a senior fellow at Chatham House and Director of the Conflict Studies Research Centre. He has been a very active and prescient analyst of Russia, especially since the invasion of Ukraine, notably through his books Moscow Rules and Russia’s War on Everybody.

Drought Update – Posted November 2, 2024

November 2, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

Every week on Thursday, the Drought Monitor LINK is updated for every state in the U.S. plus most territories.

 

 

Row Crops

 

Livestock

Specialty Crops (Click HERE to access the links in this image).

And there is another source of information on drought from certain groupings of states that operate what is called a Drought Early Warming System (DEWS). They sometimes have webinars and may issue reports without having a webinar. Not all parts of the U.S. are covered. These groups of states seem to issue reports every two months. I am only showing the recent reports since a month-old report at this time of the year can be misleading.

To get to that part of this article where I provide these reports you may have to click on “Read More”. I provide information for all of the existing DEWS which is current (issued in October or today).

Weather Outlook for the U.S. for Today Through at Least 22 Days and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted November 2, 2024

November 2, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks (up to four weeks) and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sat Nov 02 2024
Valid 12Z Sat Nov 02 2024 – 12Z Mon Nov 04 2024

…Frequent rounds of heavy rain and severe weather expected across the
central and southern Plains throughout this weekend and into Monday…

…Mountain snow will spread from the Pacific Northwest into much of the
Intermountain West over the next couple of days…

…Much above average temperatures expected across large portions of the
central to eastern U.S. with no rain in sight along the East Coast…

An upper-level trough digging into the western U.S. will be pushing
against a ridge of high pressure building across the eastern U.S. This
will result an amplifying weather pattern across the mainland U.S. through
this weekend, with the most vigorous battle zone occurring over the
south-central U.S. As mountain snow being ushered into the western U.S.
with the arrival of the upper trough, a large high pressure system will
quickly build across the northeastern quadrant of the country today. This
high pressure system will settle and expand across the eastern two-thirds
of the country this weekend, bringing cooler air into the Northeast. In
contrast, widespread above average temperatures are expected from the
Plains eastward with no rain in sight along the East Coast into the first
few days of November.

Attention will then focus across the mid-section of the country where a
rather significant heavy rain and severe weather event is currently
developing. As moist air from the Gulf of Mexico returns and streams
northward into the southern Plains behind the high pressure system, the
deepening upper-level trough moving into the western U.S. will spread more
mountain snow across the Intermountain West this weekend. Southwesterly
flow ahead of the trough will then interact with the returning Gulf
moisture and lift the moisture over a warm front across the central and
southern Plains. Heavy rain associated with organized thunderstorms are
currently erupting over the southern High Plains. The thunderstorms and
heavy rain will then expand northeastward into the central Plains through
the weekend. A few inches of heavy rain with locally higher amounts is
forecast across the south-central U.S., with the heaviest rainfall
expected across central Oklahoma. Similar to many areas of the Lower 48,
this region is experiencing moderate to extreme drought conditions. While
this heavy rain event will help alleviate the drought, the expected high
rainfall rates will bring an increasing threat of flash flooding. WPC
currently has a moderate risk of flash flooding in place from central
Oklahoma to southeastern Kansas and into southwestern Missouri from Sunday
into early Monday. Please stay abreast of the latest forecast updates on
this upcoming heavy rain/severe weather event across the central to
southern Plains. This system will also spread some light to moderate rain
farther north across the northern Plains, and moderate to locally heavy
rain toward the upper Midwest on Sunday into early Monday.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

01 NOV 2024 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Streets Three Main Indexes Opened Sharply Higher, Unfortunately The Small Caps Were Unable To Make Gains On Yesterday’s Losses, But All Three Closed Moderately Higher In The Green

November 1, 2024Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 288 points or 0.69%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 145 points or 0.80%,
  • S&P 500 closed up 23 points or 0.41%,
  • Gold $2,744 down $5.40 or 0.19%,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $69 up $0.16 or 0.23%,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.380 up 0.096 points or 0.762%,
  • USD index $104.31 up $0.34 or 0.32%,
  • Bitcoin $69,204 down $1,460 or 2.11%, (24 Hours)
  • Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. unchanged at 585 Canada -3 to 213
    U.S. Rig Count is down 33 rigs from last year’s count of 618 with oil rigs down 17, gas rigs down 16 and miscellaneous rigs unchanged.

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing

Today’s Highlights

US stocks rebounded on Friday as investors processed a disappointing jobs report and positive earnings from major tech companies. The economy added only 12,000 jobs in October, falling significantly short of expectations. Amazon shares surged over 6% after reporting strong earnings and triple-digit revenue growth in its cloud unit’s AI business. Intel stock jumped more than 3% following better-than-expected Q3 revenue and a positive Q4 forecast. Apple shares declined slightly due to weaker-than-expected Q4 service revenue and China revenue. The positive earnings from Amazon and Intel helped alleviate concerns about Big Tech’s prospects. The jobs report is the last major economic data before the Fed’s policy decision on November 7. Market expectations for the upcoming meeting remained largely unchanged, with traders estimating a 99% probability of a quarter-point interest rate reduction. Despite Friday’s recovery, all three major indexes were on track to register losses for the week.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – November 2024 Economic Forecast: Our Index Marginally Declines – We Are Stuck With The Crappy Economy We Have Seen So Far This Year

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The October 2024 Jobs report was bad. Payroll employment increased by only 12,000 and the unemployment rate unchanged at 4.1%. Part of the reason the unemployment rate was unchanged is that the household survey (which provides the headline unemployment rate) reduced the size of the workforce by 220,000, lowered the amount of employed by 368,000, and then removed 428,000 from the workforce. Remember the household survey is a poll of 60,000 households done monthly by the BLS. Note that the Establishment Survey produces the headline 12,000 jobs growth which is totally inconsistent with Household Surveys employment decline of 368,000. The October 2024 BLS jobs report was weak due to several key factors:

  1. Hurricane impacts: Hurricanes Helene and Milton affected employment, particularly in Florida and North Carolina, though the exact impact was difficult to quantify.
  2. Boeing strike: A significant labor strike at Boeing resulted in approximately 44,000 job losses in the manufacturing sector.
  3. Downward revisions: Previous months’ job figures were revised downward significantly. August’s numbers were adjusted from 159,000 to just 78,000, while September’s were revised from 254,000 to 223,000. This resulted in a total downward revision of 112,000 jobs
  4. Broad-based weakness: Several sectors experienced job losses or minimal growth:
    • Manufacturing shed 46,000 jobs
    • Temporary help services lost 49,000 jobs
    • Leisure and hospitality declined by 4,000 jobs
    • Retail trade and transportation/warehousing also reported slight losses
  5. Slower overall trend: Even before October, job creation in 2024 had been averaging about 200,000 per month, which was already about 60,000 less than the same period in 2023.
  6. Economic deceleration: The weak report may indicate a broader economic slowdown, with some pundits blaming the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes aimed at controlling inflation.

While some of these factors, like the hurricanes and the Boeing strike, are temporary, the broad-based weakness across sectors and the significant downward revisions to previous months could suggest underlying softness in the job market. Honestly, raising the federal funds rate has little to do with the soft numbers as there was a lot of money available. Goods production is escaping the high cost of doing business in the US with imports rising and domestic production falling. In addition, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) does not explicitly count or exclude unauthorized immigrants in its employment surveys. However, the household survey, which is part of the BLS jobs report, does include unauthorized immigrants in its data collection. With over 10 million illegals in the country recently – how does this affect the jobs report data?

Construction spending during September 2024 was 4.6% above the September 2023 (down from 4.8% last month). Spending on private construction was up 3.8% year-over-year (up from 3.7% last month) and spending on public construction was up 7.0% year-over-year (down from 8.5% last month). Construction spending is one of the bright spots in the economy but growth has been declining in 2024.

The ISM Manufacturing PMI® registered 46.5% in October 2024, 0.7 percentage point lower compared to the 47.2 percent recorded in September. This is the lowest Manufacturing PMI reading in 2024. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 54th month after one month of contraction in April 2020. (A Manufacturing PMI above 42.5 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy.) The New Orders Index remained in contraction territory, registering 47.1 percent, 1 percentage point higher than the 46.1 percent recorded in September. Manufacturing contraction is accelerating and pretty soon made in USA labels will be hard to find.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Interest Rates and Weak Demand Cloud European Steel Market
  • U.S. Drilling Activity Going Nowhere Baker Hughes Data Shows
  • Exxon Completes Sale of French Refinery to Trafigura-Led Buyer
  • Oil Markets on Edge After a Volatile Week
  • A Mixed Earnings Season for Oil and Gas Giants
  • Stocks climb to start November as traders look past weak jobs report: Live updates
  • Here’s where the jobs are for October 2024 – in one chart
  • IRS announces 401(k) contribution limits for 2025
  • Election next week holds big implications for stock market, especially the control of Congress
  • Super Micro’s 44% plunge this week wipes out stock’s gains for the year
  • Bitcoin slips below $70,000 after notching 12% gain in October: CNBC Crypto World
  • Record numbers of wealthy Americans are making plans to leave the U.S. after the election
  • Amazon shares jump 7%, approach record after earnings beat

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

NOAA Updates their Mid-Month Forecast for November 2024 on October 31, 2024 – Major Changes. – Posted on November 1, 2024

November 1, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

At the end of every month, NOAA updates its Outlook for the following month which in this case is November of 2024. We are reporting on that tonight. In this article, I refer to November, 2024 as “The New Month”.

There have been significant changes in the Outlook for the new month and these are addressed in the NOAA Discussion so it is well worth reading.  We provided the prior Mid-Month Outlook for the new  month for comparison. It is easy to see the substantial changes in the weather outlook by comparing the Mid-Month and Updated Maps.

The article includes the Drought Outlook for the new month. NOAA also adjusted the previously issued three-month Drought Outlook to reflect the changes in the new month’s Drought Outlook. We also provide the Week 2/3 Tropical Outlook for the World. The Tropical Outlet includes both direct and indirect potential impacts to the Southern Tier of CONUS. We also include a whole set of the forecasts for parts of the new month. These are both useful and provide a crosscheck on the validity of the new month’s Outlook. The whole should be equal to the sum of its parts.

The best way to understand the updated outlook for the new month is to view the maps and read the NOAA discussion. I have highlighted the key statements in the NOAA Discussion.

I am going to start with graphics that show the updated Outlook for the new month and the earlier Mid-Month Outlook for the new month. This is followed by a graphic that shows both the Updated Outlook for the new month and the previously issued three-month outlook for the three-month period that includes the new month. So you get the full picture in three graphics.

Here is the updated Outlook for November 2024.

For Comparison Purposes, Here is the earlier Mid-Month Outlook for November

It is important to remember that the maps show deviations from the current definition of normal which is the period 1991 through 2020.  So this is not a forecast of the absolute value of temperature or precipitation but the change from what is defined as normal or to use the technical term climatology.

It is a substantial change from what was issued on October 17, 2024. Remember, it is the first set of maps that are the current outlook for November which is the new month.  One expects some changes  14 days later. However, the changes to the updated new month Outlook are very significant.  This then gives us some reason to question the (October 17, 2024) three-month NDJ temperature and precipitation Outlooks which are shown in the following graphic.

NOAA provided a combination of the Updated Outlook for the New Month and the Three-Month Outlook.

The top pair of maps are again the Updated Outlook for the new month. There is a temperature map and a precipitation map. The bottom row shows the three-month outlooks which includes the new month. I think the outlook maps are self-explanatory.

To the extent that one can rely on a forecast, we would conclude that December and January will be very different than November. You can subtract November from the three-month Outlook and divide by two to get a combined December/January Outlook.

However given the major change in the new Outlook outlook from what was issued on October 17,  2024, we might not trust the three-month Outlook issued on October 17, 2024. Something to think about. But the major factor is the projected slower onset of La Nina. Thus this change may be consistent with the pattern the NOAA has been predicting although they have been playing catch-up.

I am still not convinced that there will be a La Nina Winter. Thus I am somewhat skeptical about the NOAA Outlooks.

Some readers may need to click “Read More” to read the rest of the article.  Some will feel that they have enough information. But there is a lot more information in the rest of this article.

Weather Outlook for the U.S. for Today Through at Least 22 Days and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted November 1, 2024

November 1, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks (up to four weeks) and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Fri Nov 01 2024
Valid 12Z Fri Nov 01 2024 – 12Z Sun Nov 03 2024

…Threat of a heavy rain and severe weather event increasing across the
central to southern Plains throughout the weekend…

…Mountain snow will overspread from the Pacific Northwest into much of
the Intermountain West over the next couple of days with heavy rain today
near the Pacific Northwest coast…

…Much above average temperatures expected across large portions of the
central to eastern U.S. with little rain in sight along the East Coast…

A trailing cold front in connection with a low pressure system currently
moving east across the Great Lakes toward New England will bring a chance
of rain into the eastern U.S. on this first day of November following an
exceptionally dry October for this part of the country. However, it
appears that the rain will not progress much beyond the Appalachians today
as another day of warm and dry conditions is forecast for the East Coast.
In fact, the warm temperatures into the 70s early this morning have
already challenged high temperature records for November in upstate New
York. In addition, record high morning lows are possible this morning
from the Mid-Atlantic into New England and record high temperatures are
possible Friday afternoon from near New York City to northern Maine. The
cold front will bring gusty winds and cool temperatures into the Northeast
by tonight and into the weekend. While less record temperatures are
forecast over the next few days across the eastern two-thirds of the
country, widespread above average temperatures expected across large
portions of the central to eastern U.S.

A high pressure system will build across the Northeast during the weekend
and will sustain the dry conditions down the Eastern Seaboard for the
first few days of November. Attention will then focus across the central
and southern Plains as a rather significant heavy rain and severe weather
event will be emerging throughout the weekend. As moist air from the Gulf
of Mexico returns and streams northward into the southern Plains behind
the high pressure system, a deepening upper-level trough will be moving
through the western U.S. This trough will bring another round of heavy
rain near the coast for Pacific Northwest today before spreading more
mountain snow across the Intermountain West through the weekend.
Southwesterly flow ahead of the trough will then interact with the
returning Gulf moisture over the southern Plains and lift the moisture
over a warm front. It appears that moderate to heavy rain associated with
organized thunderstorms will first develop over the southern High Plains
tonight. The thunderstorms and heavy rain will then expand northeastward
into the central Plains through the weekend. A few inches of heavy rain
with locally higher amounts is forecast across the southern Plains, with
the heaviest rains expected across central Oklahoma. Similar to many
areas of the Lower 48, this region is experiencing moderate to extreme
drought conditions. While this round of heavy rain will help aleviate the
drought, the high rainfall rates will also bring an increasing threat of
flash flooding. Please keep abreast of the latest forecast updates on
this upcoming heavy rain/severe weather event across the central to
southern Plains.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

31 OCT 2024 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Spooky Markets Opened Lower, S&P 500 Loses Almost 1.5% Because of Microsoft And Meta, Nasdaq Follows, Closing With Almost A 2.8% Drop

October 31, 2024Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 378 points or 0.90%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 513 points or 2.76%,
  • S&P 500 closed down 108 points or 1.86%,
  • Gold $2,757 down $44.20 or 1.59%,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $71 up $1.93 or 2.81%,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.282 up 0.016 points or 0.113%,
  • USD index $103.90 down $0.01 or 0.01%,
  • Bitcoin $69,969 down $1,973 or 2.82%, (24 Hours)

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing

Today’s Highlights

The US stock market experienced a significant decline on Thursday, led by the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite. The S&P 500 and the Dow Jones ended October slightly in the red. Big Tech Earnings Concerns Meta and Microsoft’s earnings reports sparked worries about Big Tech prospects. Both companies beat Wall Street estimates but flagged increased spending on AI infrastructure. Concerns about pressure on profitability led to share price drops for Meta and Microsoft. This unsettled mood affected other tech giants like Amazon, Apple, and Nvidia. Amazon and Apple are set to report earnings after market close today. Bond yields surged, with the 10-year Treasury yield climbing to 4.33%. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index showed core inflation at 2.7% annually in September, higher than expected.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – November 2024 Economic Forecast: Our Index Marginally Declines – We Are Stuck With The Crappy Economy We Have Seen So Far This Year

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

NFIB’s October jobs report found that 35% (seasonally adjusted) of small business owners reported job openings they could not fill in October, up one point from September’s lowest reading since January 2021. The percent of small business owners reporting labor quality as their top operating problem rose three points from September to 20%. NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg added:

On Main Street, the job market remains challenging. Although the labor market appears to be softening overall, small business owners reported little success filling their plentiful vacancies in October.

The Chicago Business Barometer™ dropped 5.0 points to 41.6 in October 2024 after edging up for two consecutive months, making the barometer the lowest since May 2024, and 1.6 points below the year-to-date average. Not sure what is going on here as I would call this a recession flag EXCEPT it is a survey – not fact but opinion.

Real Disposable Personal Income is up3.1% year-over-year (unchanged from last month) whilst Real Personal Consumption Expenditures is up 3.1% year-over-year (up from 3.0% from last month). Inflation measured by the PCE price index is 2.1% (improved from 2.3% last month) whilst the all important PCE price index less food and energy was little changed at 2.7%. This data was a touch stronger than I expected by aligns with the slight improvement in my October Economic Forecast. Also note that the inflation index used by the Federal Reserve (the one less food and energy) was little changed.

In the week ending October 26, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims 4-week moving average was 236,500, a decrease of 2,250 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 250 from 238,500 to 238,750. This unemployment data is not recessionary.

U.S.-based employers announced 55,597 cuts in October 2024, down 23.7% from the 72,821 cuts announced one month prior. It is 51% higher than the 36,836 cuts announced in the same month in 2023. October’s total marks the seventh time this year job cut announcements are higher than the corresponding month one year prior. These numbers are somewhat elevated and support my position that economic growth is weak.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Aston Martin’s Pre-Tax Losses Plummet by 90% in Q3
  • North Korea’s Surprise Involvement in Ukraine War is Bad News for China
  • Record Shale Production Helps ConocoPhillips Beat Profit Estimates
  • Oil Prices Rebound, But Henry Hub Nat Gas Still Taking a Beating
  • New Survey Shows Grim Outlook For Oil Markets
  • Regulatory Uncertainty Casts Shadow Over U.S. LNG Industry
  • IMF Cuts Middle East Growth Outlook on Oil Output Cuts and Conflicts
  • Amazon shares pop on earnings beat, cloud growth
  • Intel shares pop 12% on earnings beat, uplifting guidance
  • Microsoft’s stock has worst day in two years after disappointing forecast
  • Key inflation rate hits 2.1% in September, as expected, closing in on Fed target
  • Bitcoin retreats to $70,000 to close out October: CNBC Crypto World
  • Coinbase drops 15% after earnings, posts worst day in more than two years
  • Stock market suffers a Halloween selloff as tech investors get the chills

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

November 2024 Economic Forecast: Our Index Marginally Declines – We Are Stuck With The Crappy Economy We Have Seen So Far This Year

October 31, 2024Posted ineconomics, economy, macroeconomicsNo Comments

Authored by Steven Hansen

EconCurrent‘s Economic Index marginally declined with a downwardly revised September forecast and again returned to negative territory. Inflation overall remains unchanged compared to last two months – a strange situation after the Federal Reserve declared progress on curtailing inflation. Currently, we do not forecast a recession in the near term. Read on to understand the currents affecting our economic growth.

Weather Outlook for the U.S. for Today Through at Least 22 Days and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted October 31, 2024

October 31, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks (up to four weeks) and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Thu Oct 31 2024
Valid 12Z Thu Oct 31 2024 – 12Z Sat Nov 02 2024

…Moderate to heavy snow over parts of the Southern Cascades and Northern
Intermountain Region, with a second area over parts of the Upper Midwest
on Thursday…

…Temperatures will be 20 to 25 degrees above average over parts of the
Lower Great Lakes/eastern Ohio Valley and the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic…

…There is a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Ohio/Tennessee Valley and Lower Mississippi Valley and a Marginal Risk of
excessive rainfall over parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley on
Thursday…

A wave of low pressure over the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley will move
northeastward to Southeastern Canada by Friday. The trailing front moves
off the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic Coast by Friday evening, while the western
end of the boundary slowly moves northward as a stationary front over
north-central Texas by Saturday. Ahead of the front, temperatures will be
20 to 25 degrees above average over parts of the Lower Great Lakes/eastern
Ohio Valley and the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic.

On Thursday, moist air flowing northward over the Plains will extend into
the Great Lakes, creating showers and strong to severe thunderstorms ahead
of the front over parts of the Ohio/Tennessee Valley and Lower Mississippi
Valley. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) of
severe thunderstorms over the Ohio/Tennessee Valley and Lower Mississippi
Valley through Friday morning. The hazards associated with these
thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts,
hail, and a minimal threat of tornadoes.

Furthermore, moderate to heavy rain will develop along the front over
parts of Tennessee and Lower Mississippi Valleys. Therefore, through
Friday morning, the WPC has issued a Marginal Risk (level 1/4) of
excessive rainfall over parts of the Tennessee and Lower Mississippi
Valleys. The associated heavy rain will create localized areas of flash
flooding, affecting areas that experience rapid runoff with heavy rain.

Moreover, the wave of low pressure will pull cold air over parts of the
Upper Midwest, producing moderate to heavy snow over parts of Minnesota,
extreme northern Wisconsin, and portions of the Upper Peninsula of
Michigan. Furthermore, rain develops along the front from Central
Appalachians to the Northeast on Friday morning, tapering off to scattered
rain over parts of the Northeast by Friday evening. Also, on Friday,
onshore flow off the Atlantic will produce scattered rain over parts of
Florida.

On Friday, the threat of strong to severe thunderstorms moves westward to
the Southern High Plains as upper-level dynamics move over Southern
California. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) of
severe thunderstorms over parts of the Southern High Plains from Friday
into Saturday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are
frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a minimal
threat of tornadoes

Further, the showers and thunderstorms will create moderate to heavy rain
over parts of the Southern Plains. Therefore, the WPC has issued a
Marginal Risk (level 1/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern
Plains from Friday to Saturday morning. The associated heavy rain will
create localized areas of flash flooding, affecting areas that experience
rapid runoff with heavy rain.

Meanwhile, another front over the Pacific Northwest and California will
move inland and dissipate by Thursday evening. On Thursday, the snow will
become moderate to heavy over parts of the Southern Cascades and Northern
Intermountain Region. Rain will continue over the Northwest and
Northern/Central California through early Saturday. Light snow will
continue over parts of the higher elevations of the Cascades, Sierra
Nevada Mountains, Northern Intermountain Region, and Northern Rockies.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.