Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 372 points or 1.17%,
• Nasdaq closed up 2.48%,
• S&P 500 closed up 1.76%,
• Gold $1924 down $7.60,
• WTI crude oil settled at $68 up $0.57,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.575% up 0.081 points,
• USD $104.41 down $0.24,
• Bitcoin $24.957 – 24H Change up $609.83 – Session Low $24,248

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

** The 200-day moving average, in a technical analysis, is a widely watched metric that is used to track the average price of a security over the previous 200 trading days. When the price of a security or index falls below the 200-day moving average, it can be seen as a bearish signal by some traders and investors. The idea behind the 200-day moving average is that it can act as a support level for the price of a security or index. If the price is trading above the 200-day moving average, it is generally considered to be in an uptrend and could continue to rise. Conversely, if the price falls below the 200-day moving average, it is generally considered to be in a downtrend and could continue to fall. However, it’s worth noting that the 200-day moving average is just one of many technical indicators that traders and investors use to analyze markets, and it should not be relied on in isolation to make investment decisions. It’s important to also consider other factors such as fundamental analysis and market sentiment when making investment decisions.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for March 2023

Today’s Economic Releases:

Privately‐owned housing units authorized by building permits in February 2023 were 17.9% below February 2022 (blue line in the graph below). Privately‐owned housing starts in February were 18.4% below February 2022 (red line in the graph below). Privately‐owned housing completions in February were 12.8% above February 2022 (green line in the graph below). Yup, mortgage rates continue to slow new home construction.

Prices for U.S. imports and exports have fallen and are now below the prices one year ago. Import prices are now down 1.1% year-over-year (blue line on the graph below) and export prices are down 0.8% year-over-year (red line on the graph below). Not only does this suggest a slowing US economy – but also suggests a weak global economy.

The March 2023 Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey from the Philly Fed continued to decline overall. The survey’s broad indicators for current activity were all negative. On balance, the firms also reported a decline in employment. Most future indicators weakened, suggesting that the firms continue to have tempered expectations for growth over the next six months. The diffusion index for current general activity remained negative but ticked up 1 point to -23.2, its seventh consecutive negative reading (see Chart 1 below). The New York Fed’s manufacturing survey released yesterday also was significantly negative which implies manufacturing in March will slow.

In the week ending March 11, the unemployment insurance weekly claims 4-week moving average was 196,500 – a decrease of 750 from the previous week.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Proving That Magnesium Can Beat Out Lithium-ion Batteries
• Are Oil Prices Set For A Quick Comeback?
• Saudi Arabia’s Oil Exports Hit A 3-Month High In January
• Global Oil Production Dropped To A 7-Month Low In January
• Stocks close higher, Dow jumps more than 300 points as banks step in to aid First Republic: Live updates
• Wall Street rides to the rescue as 11 banks pledge First Republic $30 billion in deposits
• Accounts to buy bonds from the government jumped fivefold as yields boomed
• Bitcoin nears $25,000, and new FTX management says the firm moved billions to SBF: CNBC Crypto World
• The Liquidity Phase Of The Bank Crisis Is Over… But The Solvency Phase Is Getting Worse
• Market Snapshot: U.S. stocks up sharply as First Republic gets rescue from banks
• Distributed Ledger: Bank sector stress may provide a bullish case for cryptocurrencies. Here’s how

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 280 points or 0.87%,
• Nasdaq closed up 0.05%,
• S&P 500 closed down 0.7%,
• Gold $1924 up $12.50,
• WTI crude oil settled at $68 down $3.09,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.479% down 0.157 points,
• USD $104.72 up $1.12,
• Bitcoin $24.412 – 24H Change down $804.42 – Session Low $24,047

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for March 2023

Today’s Economic Releases:

The Producer Price Index for Final Demand decreased 0.1% in February. Final demand prices advanced 0.3 percent in January and declined 0.2 percent in December 2022. On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index rose 4.6% for the 12 months ended in February (blue line on graph below). No question inflation is moderating – but remains very high. Note that at the current rate of decline, it will take almost one year for inflation to reach 2%.

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for February 2023 down 0.4% from the previous month, but up 5.4% year-over-year. When adjusted for inflation, retail and food services sales were up 0.6% year-over-year. At this point retail sales is not driving an increase in GDP.

Business activity continued to decline in New York State according to the March 2023 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index fell nineteen points to -24.6. New orders dropped significantly, and shipments declined modestly. Delivery times shortened for a second consecutive month, suggesting supply availability improved, and inventories were steady. Both employment and hours worked declined for a second consecutive month. Input and selling price increases slowed somewhat. Looking ahead, businesses expect little improvement in conditions over the next six months. Not good news for manufacturing or the economy  moving forward. This index is near levels associated with recessions.

Business Inflation Expectations Increase to 3.1%. Sales levels compared to “normal times” decreased, though firms’ profit margins compared to normal remain unchanged, according to the Atlanta Fed’s latest Business Inflation Expectations survey.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

• U.S. Steel Prices Surge As Supply Fails To Meet Demand
• Oil Giants Shed 5-8% Amid Plunging Oil Prices
• Did High-Interest Rates Break Silicon Valley Bank?
• Auto Industry In Turmoil: Car Dealers Crushed By Price Squeeze
• Oil Prices Crash Below $70 As Credit Suisse Shares Tumble
• Dow closes more than 250 points lower Wednesday as bank crisis spreads to Europe: Live updates
• Goldman Sachs cuts GDP forecast because of stress on small banks, which are key to U.S. economy
• Oil tumbles to the lowest level since December 2021 as banking crisis routs markets
• Bitcoin retreats to $24,000, and NYDFS says Signature closure not tied to crypto: CNBC Crypto World
• Chip stocks fall as delivery times shrink, Samsung plans to build world’s largest chip complex

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 336 points or 1.06%,
• Nasdaq closed up 2.14%,
• S&P 500 closed up 1.68%,
• Gold $1907 down $9.20,
• WTI crude oil settled at $71 down $3.31,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.668% up 0.151 points,
• USD $103.62 up $0.02,
• Bitcoin $25,161 – 24H Change up $809.08 – Session Low $24,086

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for March 2023

Today’s Economic Releases:

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.4% in February on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.5% in January, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all-items index increased by 6.0% before seasonal adjustment. The index for shelter was the largest contributor to the monthly all-items increase, accounting for over 70% of the increase, with the indexes for food, recreation, and household furnishings and operations also contributing. The food index increased 0.4% over the month with the food at home index rising 0.3%. The energy index decreased 0.6% over the month as the natural gas and fuel oil indexes both declined. The question remains whether the Federal Reserve will raise the federal funds rate to fight inflation after the bank failures over the last few days. Honestly, the bank failures were a result of flawed investment strategies – and halting the federal fund rate increases is problematic in the fight to reduce inflation. I suspect if the federal fund rate increases are halted – it is a sign that there is an endemic problem throughout the banking system. And this should scare the crap out of you.

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index increased 0.6 points in February to 90.9 but remains below the 49-year average of 98. Twenty-eight percent of owners reported inflation as their single most important business problem, up two points from last month. Owners expecting better business conditions over the next six months deteriorated by two points from January to a net negative 47%. NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg added:

Small business owners remain doubtful that business conditions will get better in the coming months. They continue to struggle with historic inflation and labor shortages that are holding back growth. Despite their economic challenges, owners are working hard to create new jobs to strengthen the economy and their firms.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Spain Takes 84% More Russian LNG Than Before Invasion
• Safeguard Your Savings: The Dangers Of Fractional Reserve Banking Systems
• SVB Fallout Spreads Through Energy Markets
• Goldman Betting On Fed To Skip March Rate Hike
• Brent Back Below $80 As Banking Fears Persist
• Charles Schwab CEO says firm is seeing significant inflows and that he bought the stock Tuesday
• Dow closes more than 300 points higher, snaps 5-day losing streak as bank shares rebound: Live updates
• Moody’s cuts outlook on U.S. banking system to negative, citing ‘rapidly deteriorating operating environment’
• Bitcoin jumps to highest since June as rally gathers pace
• Wall St rallies on rebound in banks, small rate-hike bets

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 91 points or 0.28%,
• Nasdaq closed up 0.45%,
• S&P 500 closed down 0.15%,
• Gold $1919 up $51.60,
• WTI crude oil settled at $74 down $2.28,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.534% down 0.163 points,
• USD $103.64 down $0.94,
• Bitcoin $24,383 – 24H Change up $3,291.55 – Session Low $21,136

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for March 2023

Today’s Economic Releases:

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data today released the February 2023 Survey of Consumer Expectations, which shows that inflation expectations decreased sharply at the short-term horizon, remained unchanged at the medium-term horizon, and slightly increased at the long-term horizon. Expectations about year-ahead price increases for gas, food, cost of rent, college education, and medical care all declined. Labor market expectations improved, with unemployment expectations and perceived job loss risk decreasing and job finding expectations increasing. Expectations for voluntary job quits reached the highest level since the start of the pandemic. Households’ perceptions and expectations for current and future financial situations both improved.

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index (ETI) rose in February to 118.29 from a downwardly revised 118.14 in January 2023. When the index increases, employment is likely to grow as well, and vice versa. Turning points in the index indicate that a turning point in the number of jobs is about to occur in the coming months. Frank Steemers, Senior Economist at The Conference Board stated:

The Employment Trends Index increased in February, but it has mainly been moving sideways over the past year. So far, job growth in 2023 has been strong, and the Index remaining quite high signals that solid job gains will likely continue over the next months. With such a strong labor market and wage growth still elevated, the Federal Reserve will likely continue to further increase interest rates in its mission to lower inflation.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Oil Falls Again As Traders Remain Concerned About U.S. Banks
• Copper Prices Face Bearish Headwinds
• Bank Collapse Contagion Fears Spread To Oil Prices
• Russian Seaborne Exports Of Oil Products Dropped 10.4% In February
• Dow falls for a fifth day despite emergency backstop of Silicon Valley Bank: Live updates
• Mortgage rates tumble in the wake of bank failures
• 2-year Treasury yield posts biggest 3-day decline since aftermath of 1987 stock crash
• Bitcoin rallies to $24,000 even as regulators shut down Signature Bank: CNBC Crypto World
• 1-Year Inflation Expectations Tumble At Fastest Pace On Record
• Market Extra: VIX keeps climbing after government intervention fails to ease investor anxiety

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.