Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 272 points or 0.80%,
• Nasdaq closed up 0.69%,
• S&P 500 closed up 0.83%,
• Gold $1,998 down $1.30,
• WTI crude oil settled at $77 up $1.88,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.422% down 0.104 points,
• EUR/USD $1.102 down $0.001,
• Bitcoin $29,381 down $325,
• Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. +2 to 755 Canada -12 to 93

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our Economic Forecast for May 2023

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Today’s Economic Releases:

Inflation-adjusted disposable personal income increased 4.0 percent year-over-year (blue line on the graph below) while inflation-adjusted consumer spending increased 1.9% year-over-year (red line on the graph below). The important price indices (which reflect the amount of inflation) is 4.2% year-over-year (green line on the graph below) – 4.6% excluding food and energy).t). This data is not recessionary.

The University of Michigan’s April 2023 Consumer Sentiment Index was 63.5, and it was below the consensus forecast of 65.0. The decline in consumer sentiment was driven by a sharp drop in expectations for the future. The Index of Consumer Expectations fell to 64.7 from 70.7 in March. This was the lowest reading since December 2021. The Index of Current Economic Conditions was also lower in April, falling to 70.7 from 73.0 in March. This was the lowest reading since January 2022. This data is considered recessionary.

Chicago Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) increased to 48.6 – a reading below 50 implies a contraction of the manufacturing sector. The manufacturing sector has been in contraction for over 6 months.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

• U.S. House To Vote To Repeal Biden’s Solar Panel Tariff Waivers
• Chevron Beats Profit Estimates As Refining Margins Jump
• Permian Rig Count Inches Higher As WTI Recoups Some Losses
• Analysts See Oil Prices Rising To $90 By End-2023
• Oil Set For Sixth Straight Monthly Loss
• Senators Call For Seizure Of Iran Oil Cargos
• Dow gains more than 250 points Friday as index finishes best month since January: Live updates
• Key inflation gauge for the Fed rose 0.3% in March as expected
• Cybersecurity stocks are getting battered. Here’s how the Silicon Valley Bank failure is to blame.

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 525 points or 1.57%,
• Nasdaq closed up 2.43%,
• S&P 500 closed up 1.96%,
• Gold $1,997 up $1.50,
• WTI crude oil settled at $75 up $0.46,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.526% up 0.096 points,
• EUR/USD $1.102 down $0.002,
• Bitcoin $29,683 up $2,039,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our Economic Forecast for April 2023

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Today’s Economic Releases:

The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that the advance estimate for 1Q2023 Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew at an annual rate of 1.1%. This was slower than the 2.6% growth in the fourth quarter of 2022. However, when viewed year-over-year – the economy grew at 1.6% (up from 0.9% in 4Q2023 – blue line in the graph below). Inflation calculate by the BEA fell to 5.3% in 1Q2023 (down from the 6.4% in 4Q2023 – red line in the graph below). The slowdown in GDP growth was driven by a number of factors, including:

• A decline in consumer spending, which accounts for about 70% of GDP.
• A decrease in business investment, which accounts for about 17% of GDP.
• A slowdown in exports, which account for about 12% of GDP.

My takeaway is that economic growth is rather modest – and any black swan event would cause a recession.

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported that pending home sales decreased 5.2% in March 2023 from February. This was the first month-over-month decline since November 2022. On an annual basis, pending home sales were down 23.2%. Pending home sales measures the number of homes that have gone under contract but have not yet closed. The decline in pending home sales is being caused to a significant degree by lower inventory of homes for sale

The Kansas City Fed’s Tenth District Manufacturing Activity composite index was -10 in April, down from 0 in March and February. The composite index is an average of the production, new orders, employment, supplier delivery time, and raw materials inventory indexes.

According to the U.S. Department of Labor, initial claims for state unemployment benefits four-week moving average decreased by 4,000 to 236,000. The decrease in claims was driven by a decline in layoffs in the leisure and hospitality sector. Claims in the sector decreased by 12,000, accounting for all of the decline in initial claims.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Tanker Carrying Oil For Chevron Seized By Iran
• The High Costs Of Electrifying The U.S. Auto Industry
• Wisconsin’s Only Oil Refinery Reopens 5 Years After Explosion
• Falling Crude Prices Drag Down Profits At China’s Oil Giants
• Pioneer CEO Retirement Could Reignite Exxon Takeover Talks
• Dow jumps 500 points on strong earnings, heads for best day since January: Live updates
• Amazon earnings are out — here are the numbers
• Here’s why the stock market is having such a massive rally today
• U.S. GDP rose at a 1.1% pace in the first quarter as signs build that the economy is slowing
• Market Snapshot: Dow jumps over 500 points as stocks rally after earnings from Meta and other big-tech names

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 229 points or 0.68%,
• Nasdaq closed up 0.47%,
• S&P 500 closed down 0.38%,
• Gold $1,998 down $6.90,
• WTI crude oil settled at $74 down $2.81,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.441% up 0.043 points,
• EUR/USD $1.104 up $0.006,
• Bitcoin $27,362 down $366

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our Economic Forecast for April 2023

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Today’s Economic Releases:

New orders for manufactured durable goods in March increased to 4.6% year-over-year (5.6% inflation-adjusted). The increase is predominately due to civilian aircraft.

 

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Schiff: Gold Is A Buy In Every Single Currency
• IEA: EVs Will Account For 20% Of All Car Sales This Year
• Large Crude Inventory Draw Jolts Oil Prices
• Pipeline Failure Triggers Inspection Of Davis-Besse Nuclear Power Plant
• Oil Prices Slip As Banking Fears Return
• First Republic’s dramatic slide continues, stock falls 30% as bank looks for rescue deal
• Dow, S&P 500 close lower Wednesday as First Republic woes eclipse Big Tech earnings: Live updates
• Tyson Foods to eliminate 10% of corporate jobs, memo says
• Commodities Bellwether Flashes US Recession Warning
• Revolution Investing: Stock investors are right to be cautious now, and being bearish is even smarter

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.