Government Spending and Inflation. Part 12

May 14, 2023Posted inmacroeconomicsNo Comments

Note: There are a number of errors in the analysis.  A new article will be posted with the correct analysis.  This post will remain.  The reason is that this series of blog articles constitutes my “research notebook.”  As anyone trained in science or engineering will tell you, a research notebook is a chronological record of work.  When errors are made, they are noted but not crossed out or removed.  Removing any part invalidates the research record.  So Part 13 of this series will be a replacement for Part 12.

In previous posts in this series, we have looked at what can be learned by looking at the time series data for U.S. federal government spending and consumer inflation (CPI).  We have failed to find systemic consistency in the correlation between these two data sets.  In the most recent effort,1 we isolated those data points belonging to periods of significant inflation and significant disinflation/deflation.  Even that partitioning of the data did not yield the systemic patterns sought.  This brings us to see what can be learned by studying each period of significant inflation changes individually.


From a photo by Jan Antonin Kolar on Unsplash

Weather: Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted May 14, 2023

May 14, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 4:08 p.m. EDT Sunday, May 14, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
403 PM EDT Sun May 14 2023

Valid 00Z Mon May 15 2023 – 00Z Wed May 17 2023

…Above-normal temperatures to spread from the western into the central
U.S. early this week…

…Additional heavy rain and flooding possible for parts of the southern
Plains and mid Mississippi Valley into Monday…

…Heavy rainfall threat moving east into the lower Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys on Tuesday…

Weekly Crop Report May 13, 2023 – It looks like a good start but it is very early in season so too early to draw conclusions.

May 13, 2023Posted inagricultureNo Comments

This article is based primarily on the May 9, 2023, USDA Crop Bulletin which covers the May 1 – 7  period of time. The USDA report becomes available on Tuesdays but I plan to publish my article on Saturdays as it will be featured all day on Saturday. I may later decide to publish this report on Tuesday nights.   might add additional information. For those who need the information as soon as possible, the links to the information are provided at the end of the article.

This article includes a short international review of agricultural conditions also

It is early in the season so we are just beginning to have information on most crops. Moisture is not the major issue but some areas have to get a bit warmer.

Review of the World’s Weather in April of 2023 – May 13, 2023

May 13, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Every month the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information and other NOAA entities review the weather for the World in the prior Month. There is a long detailed report and I receive a summary of that report. In this article I am going to present two slides from the full report and then the email I received in its entirety.

Certainly, the Global ocean temperature setting a record for April is pretty significant. The combined land and ocean temperature being the fourth highest, to me is not a surprise at all as the first graphic in the body of the article suggests.

Weather: Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted May 13, 2023

May 13, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 6:10 p.m. Saturday, May 13, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
355 PM EDT Sat May 13 2023

Valid 00Z Sun May 14 2023 – 00Z Tue May 16 2023

…Much above-average temperatures expected to continue across the western
U.S., including record-breaking heat over portions of the Pacific
Northwest on Sunday...

…Additional heavy rain and flooding possible for parts of Texas and
Oklahoma into early next week…

…Severe storms expected for parts of the mid Mississippi Valley into
Saturday evening…

12 May 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street Suffers Another Down Day, But Recovers From Steep Losses

May 12, 2023Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 9 points or 0.03%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 0.35%,
  • S&P 500 closed down 0.16%,
  • Gold $2,017 down $4.20,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $70 down $0.74,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.464% up 0.067 points,
  • USD Index $102.69 up $0.64,
  • Bitcoin $26,476 down $366,
  • Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. -17 to 731 Canada +1 to 94

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for May 2023

Today’s Economic Releases:

The University of Michigan’s Consumer sentiment tumbled 9% to 57.7 amid renewed concerns about the trajectory of the economy, erasing over half of the gains achieved after the all-time historic low from last June. While current incoming macroeconomic data show no sign of recession, consumers’ worries about the economy escalated in May alongside the proliferation of negative news about the economy, including the debt crisis standoff.

Well, there is no inflation in the export and import of goods and services. In April 2023, prices for U.S. imports declined 4.8% year-over-year. The price index for U.S. exports declined 5.9% year-over-year.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Oil, Gas Drilling Activity In U.S. Sees Largest Single-Week Drop Since Mid-2020
  • European Natural Gas Prices Are Set For A Sixth Consecutive Weekly Loss
  • A Plethora Of Bearish Factors Push Oil Prices Down
  • Shell Suspends Production At The World’s Largest Floating LNG Facility
  • Tesla To Recall Over 1.1 Million EVs In China
  • S&P 500 closes lower, notches a second week of losses, following disappointing consumer sentiment data: Live updates
  • Bitcoin dips below $27,000 and PitchBook releases Q1 crypto report on VC investments: CNBC Crypto World
  • The S&P Is Up 8% In 2023; Without AI It Would Be Down 2%, Below 3,800
  • Market Snapshot: Dow on track to book 5th straight day of losses, as poor consumer sentiment report reignites recession fears

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

NOAA Updates its ENSO Alert on May 11, 2023 – El Nino now 90% Likely

May 12, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Lightly Edited at 9:39 p.m. Saturday, May 12, 2023 to add some details that I was too exhausted to sort out when I published early this morning.

On the second Thursday of every month, NOAA issues its analysis of the status of ENSO. This includes determining the Alert System Status.  NOAA again describes their Report as “ENSO Alert System Status: El Nino Watch”

There is not much doubt that we will have an El Nino.

From the NOAA Analysis:

The combination of a forecasted third westerly wind event in mid-late May, and high levels of above-average oceanic heat content, means that a potentially significant El Niño is on the horizon.  While at least a weak El Niño is likely, the range of possibilities at the end of the year (November-January) include a 80% chance of at least a moderate El Niño (Niño-3.4 greater than or equal to  1.0°C) to a ~55% chance of a strong El Niño (Niño-3.4 greater than or equal to 1.5°C).  It is still possible the tropical atmosphere does not couple with the ocean, and El Niño fails to materialize (5-10% chance).

Weather: Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted May 12, 2023

May 12, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 8:55 p.m. EDT Friday, May 12, 2013

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
306 PM EDT Fri May 12 2023

Valid 00Z Sat May 13 2023 – 00Z Mon May 15 2023

…Heavy rain, flash flooding and severe weather likely across large
portions of the Plains…

…Much above average to record heat building across the Pacific
Northwest, while below average temperatures expected across large portions
of the Plains…