30 May 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street Exhibited An Unremarkable Trading Day Finally Closing Mixed

May 30, 2023Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 51 points or 0.15%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 0.32%,
  • S&P 500 closed flat 0.00%,
  • Gold $1,960 up $15.70,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $70 down $2.94,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.683% down 0.137 points,
  • USD Index $104.08 down $0.12,
  • Bitcoin $27,852 up $192,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for May 2023

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell in May to 102.3 (1985=100), down from an upwardly revised 103.7 in April. Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director, Economics at The Conference Board said:

Consumer confidence declined in May as consumers’ view of current conditions became somewhat less upbeat while their expectations remained gloomy. Their assessment of current employment conditions saw the most significant deterioration, with the proportion of consumers reporting jobs are ‘plentiful’ falling 4 ppts from 47.5 percent in April to 43.5 percent in May. Consumers also became more downbeat about future business conditions, weighing on the expectations index. However, expectations for jobs and incomes over the next six months held relatively steady. While consumer confidence has fallen across all age and income categories over the past three months, May’s decline reflects a particularly notable worsening in the outlook among consumers over 55 years of age.

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite posted a -1.1% year-over-year loss, down from a 0.4% gain in the previous month. Selma Hepp, CoreLogic chief economist noted that higher-priced homes are once again leading the monthly gains in prices after months of relatively larger weakness following the housing slowdown.

Texas factory activity remained relatively flat in May with the production index marginally down from 0.9 to -1.3, with the near-zero reading suggestive of little change in output from last month. Manufacturing is weak in all Fed districts.

 

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Exxon Is Ramping Up Activity In Offshore Guyana As The Economy Soars
  • Lithium Market To Remain Tight Through 2024: Chile
  • WTI Plunges Below $70 With U.S. Debt Deal In Jeopardy
  • Tax Credit Uncertainty Could Derail $1-Billion Pink Hydrogen Project
  • Gasoline Demand Over Memorial Day Weekend Lower Than In 2022
  • Debt ceiling bill faces a tough path in the House as GOP opposition grows
  • Nvidia crosses into $1 trillion market cap before giving back gains
  • Dow finishes Tuesday lower as Wall Street weighs odds of debt ceiling deal clearing Congress: Live updates
  • Memorial Day air travel tops 2019 levels as consumers keep shelling out for trips
  • Key Words: ‘There is no other China, there is only one China’: Nvidia CEO warns of ‘enormous damage’ if China chip war escalates.

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Weather: Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted May 30, 2023

May 30, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
357 PM EDT Tue May 30 2023

Valid 00Z Wed May 31 2023 – 00Z Fri Jun 02 2023

…Widespread scattered showers and thunderstorms continue across large
portions of the central U.S., the northern Rockies and northern Great
Basin…

…Scattered showers spread into the southern Mid-Atlantic today, with an
increasing chance of thunderstorms across southern Florida on Wednesday…

…Much above average temperatures expected along the northern tier of the
nation, while cooler than normal conditions accompany the showers across
the Southeast…

NOAA Issues their Hurricane Outlooks Marking the Start of Summer this May 29, 2023

May 29, 2023Posted inClimate, weatherNo Comments

Updated at 3:26 a.m. EDT Tuesday, May 30, 2023

We are entering Hurricane Season. So it is appropriate to discuss the recent projections issued by NOAA. NOAA has provided projections for the Atlantic, Central Pacific, and Eastern Pacific.

I also discuss the apparent correlation between hurricane frequency and intensity with the phases of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). This is particularly important this year due to the combination of a warm Atlantic and a forecast of an El Nino. These two factors tend to cancel each other out and this combination occurs rarely.  This makes the forecast this year interesting and based on a small number of occurrences of this combination. Thus the level of confidence in the Outlook for the Atlantic may be lower than usual.

The analysis of the impact of the AMO on the forecast is in Part II of the article so those who are only interested in the forecast will find that early in the article. Ocean cycles are very important when trying to understand the climate of the U.S. and other parts of the World.

It is also appropriate to remind those who are at risk from tropical cyclones to be as prepared as possible.

Weather: Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted May 29, 2023

May 29, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 5:14 p.m. EDT Monday May 29, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
310 PM EDT Mon May 29 2023

Valid 00Z Tue May 30 2023 – 00Z Thu Jun 01 2023

…Widespread scattered showers and thunderstorms expected for large
portions of the central U.S. into the Northern Rockies and northern Great
Basin…

…Showery conditions likely across the Southern Mid-Atlantic through
Tuesday and developing across portions of Florida Wednesday…

…Much above average temps expected along the northern tier of the
nation, while cooler than average temps accompany the showers across the
Southeast portion of the nation…

Weather: Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted May 28, 2023

May 28, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 3:50 p.m. EDT Sunday, May 28, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
306 PM EDT Sun May 28 2023

Valid 00Z Mon May 29 2023 – 00Z Wed May 31 2023

…Unsettled and cool weather remains across the Mid-Atlantic through
Tuesday…

…Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected to linger across the Great
Basin, northern and central Rockies, Great Plains, and Upper Midwest for
the next few days…

…Above average temperatures forecast throughout the northern half of the
Nation…

Adventures With 3 Coin Flips. Part 2: Connecting the Micro to the Macro

May 28, 2023Posted inUncategorizedNo Comments

In Part 1, we saw that increasing the observation window changes the results for the occurrence of tails following heads.  That raises the question: How does the micro (small observation window) relate to the macro (large observation window)?  More specifically, what is the relationship between results from a small observation window (three flips) and those from a large observation window (100 flips)?

NOAA Updates their Seasonal Outlook – El Nino coming but not here yet – May 27, 2023

May 27, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Lightly edited at 5:54 p.m. EDT Saturday, May 27, 2023 mostly to compare the new to the prior Seasonal Outlook. They are very similar.

On the third Thursday of the month right on schedule NOAA issued what I describe as their Four-Season Outlook. The information released also included the Mid-Month Outlook for the single month of June plus the weather and drought outlook for the next three months.  I present (apologies for the delay) the information issued and try to add context to it. It is quite a challenge for NOAA to address the subsequent month, the subsequent three-month period as well as successive three-month periods for a year or a bit more.

It is very useful to read the excellent discussion that NOAA issues with this Seasonal Outlook.  In general, the overall level of confidence in the Seasonal Outlook is lower than usual for many reasons that are addressed in the NOAA discussion. It is best to read the full discussion but here are some of the highlights:

  • Equatorial SSTs are near-to-above average across most of the Pacific Ocean and atmospheric conditions reflect ENSO-neutral conditions [Editor’s Note: The Atmosphere has not yet responded to the warming in the Eastern Pacific which is marginally at El Nino levels].
  • At least a weak El Niño is likely given high levels of above-average oceanic heat content, but the range of possibilities include an 80 percent chance of at least a moderate El Niño and a 55 percent chance of a strong El Niño by the end of the year.
  • This likely warm start to June along with monthly dynamical and statistical tools support increased probabilities for above-normal temperatures from the Pacific Northwest east to the Northern Great Plains. 
  • The NMME along with an increased potential for an early season TC [tropical cyclone] to emerge from the western Caribbean Sea favors above-normal precipitation [in June] for parts of the Southeast.
  • The JJA 2023 temperature outlook favors above-normal temperatures over the western CONUS, the Southwest, the Gulf States, along the eastern seaboard, and for much of the state of Alaska.
  • The JJA 2023 precipitation outlook depicts below-normal precipitation probabilities over the Pacific Northwest and parts of the Northern Rockies, the Southwest, and south coast of Alaska. NMME and C3S are in good agreement on below normal precipitation over the southwest and wet soil moisture over the Four Corners region may provide a sluggish start to the Monsoon this summer. Above normal precipitation probabilities are indicated over parts of the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valleys, the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, the Southeast, and mid-Atlantic. Parts of the Central Plains tend to be anti-correlated with the monsoon region, and as such a weak tilt toward above normal precipitation is indicated.
  • Confidence decreases in September-November (SON) 2023 and following seasons as lead time increases and dynamical models  become more uncertain, however, El Niño is expected to become more dominant in the forecast(s), and the pattern begins to reflect El Niño conditions during fall and winter seasons.
  • Decadal [Temperature] trends become the dominant player in spring and summer 2024, with below normal trends  over the Pacific Northwest and above-normal trends  over the Mid-Atlantic.

Weather: Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted May 27, 2023

May 27, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1240 PM EDT Sat May 27 2023

Valid 00Z Sun May 28 2023 – 00Z Tue May 30 2023

…A convective low pressure system is forecast to bring areas of heavy
rain, gusty winds and hazardous beach and boating conditions for the
Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic through the Memorial Day weekend…

…Showers and thunderstorms expected to linger across the Great Basin,
northern and central Rockies, and the High Plains for the next few days…

…Warmer than normal across much of the Northwest and north-central U.S.
but much cooler than normal across the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast...

26 May 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street Opens Sharply Higher, Trading Mostly Sideways, Major Indexes Close Near Session Highs

May 26, 2023Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 329 points or 1.00%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 2.19%,
  • S&P 500 closed up 1.30%,
  • Gold $1,947 up $2.90,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $73 up $0.95,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.810% down 0.005 points,
  • USD Index $104.21 down $0.04,
  • Bitcoin $26,771 up $272,
  • Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. -9 to 711 Canada +2 to 87

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for May 2023

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

New orders for manufactured durable goods in April, up two consecutive months, increased 1.1% – and is up 4.2% year-over-year (2.1% year-over-year inflation adjusted). The biggest gain came from defense aircraft.

Real Disposable personal income (DPI) increased 3.4% year-over-year in April 2023 and real personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased 2.3% year-over-year. The PCE price index increased 4.4% year-over-year. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 4.7% year-over-year. Price indices show the amount of inflation that is occurring – and inflation is relatively unchanged from last month. I consider this a relatively good report showing the consumer is not hunkering down completely.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Oil Rebounds As U.S. Drillers Continue To Pull Back
  • Oil Markets On Edge Ahead Of OPEC Meeting And U.S. Debt Deadline
  • A U.S. Default Is Unlikely, But So Is An Oil Rally
  • Stocks rally Friday on hopes for a debt ceiling deal, Nasdaq notches fifth straight week of wins: Live updates
  • A.I. excitement leads to a winning week for Nvidia and other tech stocks
  • A.I.-focused cryptos rise on Nvidia demand, and Shaq served with FTX lawsuit: CNBC Crypto World
  • Ford’s EV charging deal with Tesla puts pressure on GM, other rival automakers
  • Inflation rose 0.4% in April and 4.7% from a year ago, according to key gauge for the Fed
  • Mortgage rates rise after inflation surprise
  • Bond Report: 2-year Treasury yield extends the longest streak of advances since 2018 after PCE inflation report

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.