Updated at 3:52 p.m. Tuesday, June 6, 2023Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.
We start with the U.S. Information.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
345 PM EDT Tue Jun 06 2023Valid 00Z Wed Jun 07 2023 – 00Z Fri Jun 09 2023
...Much above average temperatures from the Northern Plains to the Pacific
Northwest while the Southwest/California and the Northeast remain below
average……Numerous and Widespread Air Quality Alerts from the Northeast to the
Great Lakes as well as for other urban areas in the central/eastern U.S……Scattered to widespread showers and storms with the risk for flash
flooding continue from the High Plains into the Intermountain West…
| Information Note: This article is now set up so that all the maps should automatically update. The links are provided but should not be needed. The downside is that if you go back to a previous version the maps will have been updated and not be relevant to the date of the prior article but will be current information. The NWS twice-a-day 48-hour forecasts do not auto-update in this article. I do it and I can be late doing it. The link for the NWS updates is HERE. Most of our other articles will not be set up to auto-update so that prior versions of the article will be meaningful.
Recently, we published the Weather Update for June. You can access it HERE. We also published the Weekly Crop Report. It can be accessed HERE. Remember the easiest way to get back to the article you were reading is to hit the return arrow in the upper left of your screen. There are other ways. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
The upper-level pattern over the CONUS will remain rather stagnant the
next couple of days with lows over the Northeast and California and
ridging in between. This will keep temperatures for many locations from
New England southwest into the Mid-Atlantic, Appalachians, and Ohio
Valley, as well as California and the Southwest, as much as 10-20 degrees
below average Wednesday and Thursday. Highs for portions of New England
will only be in the 50s and 60s, with 70s generally expected further to
the south. Similarly, most of coastal California should remain in the 60s
while highs will be warmer, but still below average, into the interior
valleys and Desert Southwest, with 80s to low 90s expected. In contrast,
under the ridging stretching northwestward over the Plains and Northwest,
temperatures will be running as much as 10-20 degrees above average. Highs
Wednesday and Thursday in the Northern Plains and interior Pacific
Northwest will be in the upper 80s to low 90s, with 80s to near 90 for the
I-5 urban corridor as well on Thursday.Another notable event in this pattern, with northwesterly flow around the
northeastern upper-level low, is the recurring, widespread smoke streaming
into the Great Lakes and Northeast due to wildfires in Canada. Numerous
Air Quality Alerts remain in effect throughout the region late Tuesday,
with the expectation that not much will change about the pattern over the
next couple of days. While not quite as thick or widespread, smoke has
also continued to spread further over portions of the central and eastern
CONUS, with Air Quality Alerts for many of the regional urban areas. In
addition, breezy winds and low humidity over portions of the Lower Great
Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic, where conditions remain very dry due to a
recent lack of rainfall, have prompted an Elevated Risk of Fire Weather
from the Storm Prediction Center for Wednesday.Showers and thunderstorms will be possible along a backdoor cold front
sinking southwestward through portions of the Missouri/Mississippi Valley
and into the Southeast. Rainfall totals should generally remain light to
moderate, expect for South Florida where more abundant tropical moisture
will lead to heavier downpours. Scattered to widespread showers and
thunderstorms will also continue along the High Plains and into the
Rockies. Anomalously moist southeasterly upslope flow will contribute to
the risk for locally heavy downpours and rainfall totals, with Slight
Risks of Excessive Rainfall in effect for portions of the central/southern
High Plains into the central Rockies Wednesday and for portions of Montana
and Idaho Wednesday and Thursday. Scattered instances of flash flooding
will be possible with wet antecedent conditions in place from recent
episodes of heavy rainfall. Storms will also continue over portions of
northern California into the northern Great Basin as the upper-level low
slowly shifts northward. There will be an attendant risk for a few
isolated instances of flash flooding, particularly for terrain sensitive
areas as well as burn scars.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6
– 10
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| 8
– 14 |
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| 3
– 4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
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Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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