19Jun2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Markets Closed Today But There Is Still News

June 19, 2023Posted inmarketsNo Comments

The stock markets are closed today for Juneteenth but there is still news. Click on the “Read More” below to read all the headlines we are following today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow was closed,
  • Nasdaq was closed,
  • S&P 500 was closed,
  • Gold $1962 down $8.90,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $71 down $0.49,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.767% up 0.039 points,
  • USD index $102.52 up $0.28,
  • Bitcoin $26,733 up $396

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for June 2023

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Although the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach are currently shut down due to the longshoreman in June, May 2023 was a good month for container imports into the US. Imports were down “only” 18% year-over-year (clawing back from -35% in February). Much of the reason for the poor year-over-year performance was a slowdown of imports after clearing the significant backlog last year. Imports are a gauge of the economy in the US.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • The Permian Basin Is Out-Producing Saudi Arabia’s Ghawar Field
  • Blinken And Xi Sit Down In “Positive Step” Towards Mending Relations
  • China Expands Influence In Latin America Through Belt And Road Initiative
  • Why Amazon built a second headquarters and how the pandemic reshaped HQ2
  • These stocks are on the verge of forming a bullish chart pattern
  • The 7 U.S. cities where a $250,000 salary is worth the least — New York is No. 1
  • Rand Paul: “Bill Gates Is Largest Funder Of Trying To Find Viruses In Caves And Bring Them To Big Cities”
  • “Extreme Greed”: A “Prescient Signal Of A Durable Economy” Or A Giant Bull Trap
  • Russian Nukes Will Stay In Belarus Indefinitely: Kremlin
  • Record aircraft purchase announced at Paris Airshow

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Comparison of NOAA and JAMSTEC Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks for the U.S. June 19, 2023

June 19, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Recently we have published the NOAA (find it here) and the JAMSTEC (find it here) temperature and precipitation Outlooks. I have been letting my readers compare them but tonight I decided to see if I could make it easier for readers to do that.

So that comparison is in the body of this article. Surprisingly they are fairly similar aided by the forecast of an El Nino. They are by no means identical.

NOAA is predicting a stronger El Nino than predicted by JAMSTEC. This may explain some of the differences.  Looking at two different forecasts can help the reader understand the range of possibilities that are possible. Hopefully, readers will find this interesting.

Weather: Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted June 19, 2023

June 19, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 6.00 p.m. EDT Monday June 19, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
443 PM EDT Mon Jun 19 2023

Valid 00Z Tue Jun 20 2023 – 00Z Thu Jun 22 2023

…There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Southeast through Wednesday and over the Northern/Central High Plains on
Wednesday…

…There is a Sight Risk of Severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Southeast/Central Gulf Coast and Northern Plains from Monday to Tuesday…

…Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories over the Central and
Western Gulf Coast…

 

Weather: Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted June 18, 2023

June 18, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 5:10 p.m. EDT June 18, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
415 PM EDT Sun Jun 18 2023

Valid 00Z Mon Jun 19 2023 – 00Z Wed Jun 21 2023

…There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of Western
Ohio, Tennessee, Middle/Lower Mississippi Valleys, and Southeast on Sunday
evening that will migrate eastward to Southern Appalachians and southern
Mid-Atlantic by Tuesday…

…There is an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys/Central Gulf Coast on Sunday;
Sight Risk of Severe thunderstorms over parts of the Southeast/Central
Gulf Coast on Monday...

…Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories over the Central and
Western Gulf Coast…

 

NOAA Updates their Seasonal Outlook – June 17, 2023

June 17, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

On the third Thursday of the month right on schedule NOAA issued what I describe as their Four-Season Outlook. The information released also included the Mid-Month Outlook for the single month of July plus the weather and drought outlook for the next three months.  I present the information issued by NOAA and try to add context to it. It is quite a challenge for NOAA to address the subsequent month, the subsequent three-month period as well as successive three-month periods for a year or a bit more. A seasonal drought outlook is also issued.

It is very useful to read the excellent discussion that NOAA issues with this Seasonal Outlook.  The overall level of confidence in the Seasonal Outlook is addressed in the NOAA discussion. It is best to read the full discussion but here are some of the highlights:

Re ENSO:

  • “NOAA’s CPC forecast calls for more than a 90 percent chance of El Niño persisting through JFM 2024 with a 56 percent chance of a strong El Niño (> 1.5 degrees C) during NDJ 2023.”

For July:

  • “Above normal temperatures are favored from the Four Corners region, across the central and southern Great Plains, the Southeast, and the Northeast.”
  • “A weakened monsoon during July across eastern Arizona and New Mexico is predicted”
  • “a strong subtropical ridge, which would favor above-normal precipitation from the southern Great Plains northward and into the Mid-Atlantic”
  • “a storm track across the northern Great Plains and into the Ohio River valley”

For JAS 2023:

  • “The highest probabilities (more than 50 percent) of above-normal temperatures are forecast across parts of California, the Pacific Northwest, Great Basin, Southwest, Gulf Coast, and East.”
  • “elevated probabilities of below-normal precipitation for parts of the Southwest, Pacific Northwest, and Great Lakes, while above-normal precipitation is favored across much of the Great Plains, parts of the Middle to Lower Mississippi Valley, Northern Rockies, and Florida Peninsula.”

Beyond JAS  2023:

  •  “Above-normal temperatures remain the most likely outcome throughout much of the U.S. from ASO to OND 2023.”
  •  “Beginning in NDJ 2023-24 through JFM 2024, predicted El Niño conditions result in enhanced chances for above-normal temperatures across the northern tier of the CONUS”
  •  “During the winter 2023-24, above-normal temperatures are favored across the East”
  •  “Precipitation outlooks during the fall 2023 through the winter 2023-24 relied upon El Niño composites and the consolidation tool with an increased chance of above (below)-normal precipitation across the southern (northern) tier of the CONUS.”
  •  “The largest probabilities (50 percent for above) are forecast across parts of the Southeast from NDJ 2023-24 through JFM 2024 based on a strong, reliable wet signal associated with El Niño.
  •  “During the spring and summer 2023, the precipitation outlooks are based mostly on decadal trends.”

Weather: Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted June 17, 2023

June 17, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sat Jun 17 2023

Valid 12Z Sat Jun 17 2023 – 12Z Mon Jun 19 2023

…Very rainy and stormy across the Southern Plains, Middle/Lower
Mississippi Valley and Southeast…

…Record setting heat possible from southern Texas to eastern Louisiana;
Critical Fire Weather likely over portions of the Southern Plains and
Southwest…

…Smoke from Canadian wildfires to continue impacting the Upper
Mississippi Valley, Great Lakes, Midwest, Northeast and Mid-Atlantic…

16 June 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street Indexes Trend Downward After Opening In The Green To Close Moderately In The Red

June 16, 2023Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 109 points or 0.32%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 0.68%,
  • S&P 500 closed down 0.37%,
  • Gold $1,968 down $2.60,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $72 up $1.03,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.769% up 0.039 points,
  • USD Index $102.32 up $0.02,
  • Bitcoin $26,355 up $894,
  • Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. -8 to 687 Canada +23 to 159

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for June 2023

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The 15 participants in the June Livingston Survey predict higher output growth for the first half of 2023 than they predicted in the December 2022 survey. The forecasters, who are surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia twice a year, now project that the economy’s output (real GDP) will grow at an annual rate of 1.1 percent during the first half of 2023. They expect weaker conditions in the second half of 2023, when growth is expected to be at an annual rate of -0.7 percent. Both projections represent upward revisions from those of the December 2022 survey. Growth is expected to average an annual rate of 1.0 percent in the first half of 2024. Additionally:

  • On an annual-average over annual-average basis, CPI inflation is expected to be 4.1 percent in 2023 and 2.5 percent in 2024.
  • The interest rate on three-month Treasury bills is now predicted to be 5.25 percent at the end of June 2023, an upward revision from 5.05 percent in the previous survey. The forecasters predict the three-month rate will fall to 4.80 percent at the end of December 2023 and 3.05 percent at the end of June 2024. The panelists see the rate at 2.95 percent at the end of December 2024.
  • The panelists predict the S&P 500 index will finish the first half of 2023 at a level of 4200.0, marking an upward revision from their previous prediction of 3927.4. Stock prices are expected to rise to 4260.4 at the end of 2023 and continue to rise to 4350.9 at the end of June 2024. The index is predicted to reach 4411.0 by the end of 2024. All forecasts for stock prices mark upward revisions from those of the December 2022 survey.

Consumer sentiment lifted 8% in June, reaching its highest level in four months, reflecting greater optimism as inflation eased and policymakers resolved the debt ceiling crisis. The outlook on the economy surged 28% over the short run and 14% over the long run. Sentiment is now 28% above the historic low from a year ago and may be resuming its upward trajectory since then. As it stands, though, sentiment remains low by historical standards as income expectations softened. A majority of consumers still expect difficult times in the economy over the next year.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • A Deep Dive Into The World’s Leading Lithium Producers
  • U.S. Shale Patch Sees Rig Count Decline By 8 This Week
  • How To Protect Your Wealth If The Fed Is Lying About More Interest Rate Hikes
  • S&P 500 breaks six-day win streak on Friday, but still notches best week since March: Live updates
  • Elon Musk says Tesla’s market cap is directly tied to whether it solves autonomous driving
  • An ETF focused on the ‘moats’ strategy of Warren Buffett is beating the market once again
  • Ukraine war live updates: Putin says nuclear weapons transferred to Belarus; Ukraine ‘will be equal to NATO allies’
  • Cryptocurrencies climb to end the week as investors digest BlackRock’s bitcoin ETF plans
  • Converting gas-powered cars to EVs is a booming business
  • “Broke Generation”: 64% Of Gen Xers Have Stopped Saving For Retirement
  • Average two-year mortgage rate close to 6%
  • Bond Report: Two-year Treasury yield rises for a second straight week after Fed officials repeat need for more rate hikes
  • Market Snapshot: U.S. stocks trade lower, but S&P 500 on pace for longest weekly win streak since 2021 after Fed pause

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.