Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 109 points or 0.32%,
• Nasdaq closed down 0.68%,
• S&P 500 closed down 0.37%,
• Gold $1,968 down $2.60,
• WTI crude oil settled at $72 up $1.03,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.769% up 0.039 points,
• USD Index $102.32 up $0.02,
• Bitcoin $26,355 up $894,
• Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. -8 to 687 Canada +23 to 159

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our Economic Forecast for June 2023

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The 15 participants in the June Livingston Survey predict higher output growth for the first half of 2023 than they predicted in the December 2022 survey. The forecasters, who are surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia twice a year, now project that the economy’s output (real GDP) will grow at an annual rate of 1.1 percent during the first half of 2023. They expect weaker conditions in the second half of 2023, when growth is expected to be at an annual rate of -0.7 percent. Both projections represent upward revisions from those of the December 2022 survey. Growth is expected to average an annual rate of 1.0 percent in the first half of 2024. Additionally:

• On an annual-average over annual-average basis, CPI inflation is expected to be 4.1 percent in 2023 and 2.5 percent in 2024.
• The interest rate on three-month Treasury bills is now predicted to be 5.25 percent at the end of June 2023, an upward revision from 5.05 percent in the previous survey. The forecasters predict the three-month rate will fall to 4.80 percent at the end of December 2023 and 3.05 percent at the end of June 2024. The panelists see the rate at 2.95 percent at the end of December 2024.
• The panelists predict the S&P 500 index will finish the first half of 2023 at a level of 4200.0, marking an upward revision from their previous prediction of 3927.4. Stock prices are expected to rise to 4260.4 at the end of 2023 and continue to rise to 4350.9 at the end of June 2024. The index is predicted to reach 4411.0 by the end of 2024. All forecasts for stock prices mark upward revisions from those of the December 2022 survey.

Consumer sentiment lifted 8% in June, reaching its highest level in four months, reflecting greater optimism as inflation eased and policymakers resolved the debt ceiling crisis. The outlook on the economy surged 28% over the short run and 14% over the long run. Sentiment is now 28% above the historic low from a year ago and may be resuming its upward trajectory since then. As it stands, though, sentiment remains low by historical standards as income expectations softened. A majority of consumers still expect difficult times in the economy over the next year.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• A Deep Dive Into The World’s Leading Lithium Producers
• U.S. Shale Patch Sees Rig Count Decline By 8 This Week
• How To Protect Your Wealth If The Fed Is Lying About More Interest Rate Hikes
• S&P 500 breaks six-day win streak on Friday, but still notches best week since March: Live updates
• Elon Musk says Tesla’s market cap is directly tied to whether it solves autonomous driving
• An ETF focused on the ‘moats’ strategy of Warren Buffett is beating the market once again
• Ukraine war live updates: Putin says nuclear weapons transferred to Belarus; Ukraine ‘will be equal to NATO allies’
• Cryptocurrencies climb to end the week as investors digest BlackRock’s bitcoin ETF plans
• Converting gas-powered cars to EVs is a booming business
• “Broke Generation”: 64% Of Gen Xers Have Stopped Saving For Retirement
• Average two-year mortgage rate close to 6%
• Bond Report: Two-year Treasury yield rises for a second straight week after Fed officials repeat need for more rate hikes
• Market Snapshot: U.S. stocks trade lower, but S&P 500 on pace for longest weekly win streak since 2021 after Fed pause

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 429 points or 1.26%,
• Nasdaq closed up 1.15%,
• S&P 500 closed up 1.22%,
• Gold $1,971 up $1.70,
• WTI crude oil settled at $71 up $2.31,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.717% down 0.008 points,
• USD Index $102.11 down $0.83,
• Bitcoin $25,456 down $271,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our Economic Forecast for June 2023

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Industrial production continues with literally no growth (0.2% year-over-year) in May 2023. In May, the index for manufacturing was down 0.3% year-over-year, while the indexes for mining and utilities were 5.0% and -3.8% year-over-year, respectively. Capacity utilization moved down to 79.6 percent in May, a rate that is 0.1 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2022) average. This is weak data.

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for May 2023 were up 2.8% year-over-year (0.6% inflation-adjusted). However, consider most of the “weakness” in sales is now coming from the decline in fuel prices. I consider this a relatively stronger report than last month, and does not have the stench of recession.

Import prices have fallen 5.9% year-over-year whilst export prices have fallen 10.1%. Import prices affect consumer prices – but the primary reason for import price decline is fuel imports.

The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey declined from -10.4 last month to -13.7 in June 2023, its 10th consecutive negative reading. The sub-index for new orders declined. Manufacturing appears to be in a recession.

In the week ending June 10, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims 4-week moving average was 246,750, an increase of 9,250 from the previous week’s revised average. This is the highest level for this average since November 20, 2021, when it was 249,250. The previous week’s average was revised up by 250 from 237,250 to 237,500.

 

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• European Central Bank Hikes Rates To 22-year High
• Heatwaves Are Sending Demand For Fossil Fuels Soaring
• Aluminum Prices Flatline As LME Grapples With Russian Inventory
• Scientists Leap Forward In Sustainable Hydrogen Production
• New Truck Orders Defy Troubled Freight Market
• Mediterranean restaurant chain Cava stock soars as much as 117% in market debut
• S&P 500, Nasdaq rally for sixth straight day as traders hope Fed’s rate-hiking cycle is nearly over: Live updates
• The market isn’t buying the Fed’s tough talk on interest rates
• Bitcoin sinks below $25,000, and U.S. withdraws new charges in SBF case for now: CNBC Crypto World
• American F-22 Fighter Jets Deployed To Middle East Amid Russian Aircraft Activity
• Market Snapshot: Dow jumps nearly 450 points as S&P 500, Nasdaq hit fresh 14-month highs despite hawkish Fed and ECB

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 233 points or 0.68%,
• Nasdaq closed up 0.39%,
• S&P 500 closed up 0.08%,
• Gold $1,960 up $1.00,
• WTI crude oil settled at $69 down $0.72,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.800% down 0.041 points,
• USD Index $103.06 down $0.28,
• Bitcoin $25,853 up $21,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our Economic Forecast for June 2023

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The Federal Reserve did what the market expected holding the federal funds rate steady stating in part:

…  the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 5 to 5-1/4 percent. Holding the target range steady at this meeting allows the Committee to assess additional information and its implications for monetary policy. In determining the extent of additional policy firming that may be appropriate to return inflation to 2 percent over time, the Committee will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments.

Their forward-looking words on what happens next:

;;; In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals. The Committee’s assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

The bottom line is that this statement really gives you no clues on the future of the federal funds rate. However, Fed Chair Powell’s press conference did indicate future rate hikes as well as well as dot-plots which show 2 more increases. Further, Chair Powell said he doesn’t see a rate cut until inflation comes down meaningfully and significantly, and that can take a couple of years.

Inflation seems to have been tamed as the producer price index (PPI) has fallen from 2.3% in April to 1.1% in May 2023. The PPI less foods and energy declined from 3.3% to 2.8% in May.

 

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Rystad Sees Major Jump In Battery Storage Capacity Through 2030
• Polysilicon Price Surge: A Challenge For Emerging Solar Markets
• Oil Moves Lower After EIA Confirms Large Crude Build
• JP Morgan Slashes Oil Price Forecast To $81 This Year
• Shell To Raise Dividend By 15% As It Doubles Down On Oil And Gas
• Fed recap: Breaking down the market’s reaction to the Fed’s pause and all of Powell’s key comments
• S&P 500 closes little changed after Fed leaves rates unchanged, signals more hikes are coming: Live updates
• Treasury yields waver as traders weigh latest Fed decision and potential moves going forward
• Stocks & Gold Slump After Hawkish Fed Sends Rate-Hike Odds Soaring
• The Fed: Fed skips June interest-rate hike, but points to two more increases this year
• Futures Movers: Oil settles lower as an ‘adjustment’ contributes to a nearly 8 million-barrel weekly U.S. crude supply climb

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.