16 Aug 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street’s Major Indexes Trended Down After The Opening Bell To close Sharply Down After Fed’s Negative Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 181 points or 0.52%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 1.15%,
  • S&P 500 closed down 0.76%,
  • Gold $1,923 down $12.20,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $79 down $1.79,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.270% up 0.047 points,
  • USD Index $103.49 up $0.28,
  • Bitcoin $29,100 down $55,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.


Click here to read our Economic Forecast for August 2023


Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

In July 2023, total industrial production declined 0.2% year-over-year. Components manufacturing declined 0.7% year-over-year, mining was up 2.9% year-over-year, whilst utilities declined 0.9% year-over-year. Capacity utilization moved up to 79.3 percent in July, a rate that is 0.4 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2022) average. Overall, industrial production remains in a recession and is little changed over the last 5 months.

Privately‐owned housing units authorized by building permits in July 2023 were 13.0% below July 2022. Housing starts were up 5.9% year-over-year. Housing completions were down 11.8 % year-over-year. It appears new housing is beginning to break out of its recession.

Today, the Federal Reserve released the minutes for the FOMC meeting which ended on 26 July 2023. Interesting statements in the minutes:

… tighter credit conditions for households and businesses were likely to weigh on economic activity, hiring, and inflation. However, participants agreed that the extent of these effects remained uncertain. Against this background, the Committee remained highly attentive to inflation risks.

… Participants commented that monetary policy tightening appeared to be working broadly as intended and that a continued gradual slowing in real GDP growth would help reduce demand–supply imbalances in the economy. Participants assessed that the ongoing tightening of credit conditions in the banking sector, as evidenced in the most recent surveys of banks, also would likely weigh on economic activity in coming quarters.

… Participants judged that, over coming quarters, firms would reduce the pace of their investment spending and hiring in response to tight financial conditions and the slowing of economic activity.

… They noted evidence that labor demand was easing—including declines in job openings, lower quits rates, more part-time work, slower growth in hours worked, higher unemployment insurance claims, and more moderate rates of nominal wage growth. In addition, they remarked on indications of increasing labor supply, including a further rise in the prime-age participation rate to a post-pandemic high.

… Participants cited a number of tentative signs that inflation pressures could be abating. These signs included some softening in core goods prices, lower online prices, evidence that firms were raising prices by smaller amounts than previously, slower increases in shelter prices, and recent declines in survey estimates of shorter-term inflation expectations and of inflation uncertainty.

… With inflation still well above the Committee’s longer-run goal and the labor market remaining tight, most participants continued to see significant upside risks to inflation, which could require further tightening of monetary policy. Some participants commented that even though economic activity had been resilient and the labor market had remained strong, there continued to be downside risks to economic activity and upside risks to the unemployment rate; these included the possibility that the macroeconomic effects of the tightening in financial conditions since the beginning of last year could prove more substantial than anticipated. A number of participants judged that, with the stance of monetary policy in restrictive territory, risks to the achievement of the Committee’s goals had become more two sided, and it was important that the Committee’s decisions balance the risk of an inadvertent overtightening of policy against the cost of an insufficient tightening.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • U.S. Gas Prices Hit Year High As Market Tightens
  • Energy Transfer LP To Acquire Crestwood Equity Partners In $7B Deal
  • Lula Aide Signals It’s Okay For Petrobras To Pursue Amazon Drilling
  • Tesla Reignites Price War With More Cuts In China
  • Fed officials see ‘upside risks’ to inflation possibly leading to more rate hikes, minutes show
  • Aldi to acquire Winn-Dixie and Harveys Supermarket stores in Southern expansion
  • Appeals court imposes restrictions on abortion pill, but drug will stay on the market for now
  • Target Pride backlash adds to sales woes as culture wars rage in corporate America
  • FOMC Minutes Signal Hawkish Fed Fears “Significant Upside Risks To Inflation”
  • Inflation slows to 6.8% but flights and hotels keep prices high
  • Movers & Shakers: Intel and Tower Semiconductor shares fall, Target’s stock gains, and more stocks on the move
  • Bond Report: 10-year Treasury yield ends at 15-year high after Fed’s July minutes

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Looking Back at the Global Climate in July 2013 – This past July seems to have been the warmest July on record.

Please note the title was meant to be Looking Back at the Global Climate in July 2023, not July 2013.

Every month, John Bateman sends me a nice email. Actually, he sends me two: one about the U.S. and one about the world.  I have already published an article based on his U.S.-focused email and you can find it HERE. Two days ago he sent me the email for the world. Since they are emails, I usually can not provide a link to what he sent me. He is a spokesperson (not sure that is the right description of his job) for NOAA both NCEI and other parts of NOAA.  For this monthly article, all of the information in his email comes from the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information so the information he includes in his email and much more can be found HERE.

Since he is a very good writer I use a lot but not all of his material and supplement it with some additional material from the NCEI website or other NOAA websites. I have not indicated what I took from his letter and what I added but if someone has questions on that I can explain it.

Obviously the headline this month is that it looks like July has been the warmest July since this data has been collected.

This is the record of July-only land and ocean temperature anomalies and this July appears to have set a new record high. It is just speculation on my part but I think it is the stepwise rise in temperature we get with an El Nino.

 

Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted August 16, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 AM EDT Wed Aug 16 2023

Valid 12Z Wed Aug 16 2023 – 12Z Fri Aug 18 2023

…Dangerous Heat Wave continues over the Pacific Northwest/Northern
Rockies as heat builds back in over Texas Thursday…

…Severe thunderstorms possible for the Upper Midwest Wednesday…

…Showers, thunderstorms, and isolated flash flooding will continue
across the Four Corners region…

 

God and America

God and America

God is big in America.

Not only is God bigger in America than anywhere else throughout the developed world (e.g., West Europe), “the divine” also feels especially big every four years when there is a Presidential election, although the overall trend of “faith in God” has been down over the past few decades (Religion – Gallup).

Why, then, is God so big in America?

It is a complex question requiring a long answer …

15 Aug 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: The Dow Opened 300 Points Down With The Nasdaq And SP 500 Following Suit Percentage Wise, Trading Mostly Sideways Falling Further At The Close

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 361 points or 1.02%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 1.14%,
  • S&P 500 closed down 1.16%,
  • Gold $1,935 down $9.50,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $12 down $1.50,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.213% up 0.031 points,
  • USD Index $103.21 up $0.02,
  • Bitcoin $29,152 down $161,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.


Click here to read our Economic Forecast for August 2023


Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

This summer, employers added 1,034,000 the lowest total for the summer months since 2010 when 960,000 teen jobs were added, according to an analysis of the latest non-seasonally adjusted figures from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) from global outplacement and business and executive coaching firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc.

Prices for U.S. imports in July 2023 rose to -4.4% year-over-year from -6.1% last month. Export prices rose from -11.9% year-over-year last month to -7.9% in July 2023. Overall export / import prices are deflating. The rise in import prices is attributable to increases in petroleum prices whilst export price increases were driven my agriculture products.

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for July 2023 were up 3.2% year-over-year (blue line on the graph below). Inflation-adjusted sales (red line on the graph below) are up 1.4% year-over-year. Retail sales seem to be modestly improving but remain weak.

The August 2023 Empire State Manufacturing Survey index fell twenty points to -19.0. New orders and shipments fell significantly. The recession in manufacturing seems to be continuing.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • U.S. Shale Oil Production Growth Getting Increasingly Difficult: Report
  • U.S. Pipeline Gas Exports To Mexico Hit A Record-High
  • Recycling Breakthrough Makes Plastic Waste A High-Value Commodity
  • Libya’s Oil Output Threatened As Intense Fighting Breaks Out In Tripoli
  • Dow slides more than 300 points, breaking a 3-day win streak, as bank names tumble: Live updates
  • Regional banks slide after Fed’s Kashkari advocates ‘significantly further’ capital regulation
  • Fitch warns it may be forced to downgrade dozens of banks, including JPMorgan Chase
  • Homebuilder sentiment drops sharply, as mortgage rates surge over 7%
  • Silver Price Inexcusably Low Given The Market Dynamics
  • Turley: The Fourth Indictment Of Donald Trump & The Criminalization Of Election Controversies
  • Futures Movers: U.S. oil price ends nearly 2% lower on China worries
  • MarketWatch: On the streets of San Francisco, will robotaxis run amok or aground?

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted August 15, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Tue Aug 15 2023
Valid 12Z Tue Aug 15 2023 – 12Z Thu Aug 17 2023

…Dangerous heat continues across the Pacific Northwest into the Northern
Rockies as much of the South sees a brief reprieve from recent oppressive
heat…

…Flash flooding and severe thunderstorms possible for portions of the
coastal Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas Tuesday…

…Monsoonal showers continue across the Four Corners region with some
locally heavy downpours possible…

 

14 Aug 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street Market’s Opened Mixed, Dow Trades Along Unchanged Line, Nasdaq And The SP 500 Close Sharply Higher

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 26 points or 0.07%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 1.05%,
  • S&P 500 closed up 0.58%,
  • Gold $1,940 down $7.10,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $82 up $0.70,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.185% up 0.017 points,
  • USD Index $103.14 up $0.30,
  • Bitcoin $29,318 down $102,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.


Click here to read our Economic Forecast for August 2023


Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

No major releases today.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Americans Struggling To Pay Skyrocketing Energy Bills
  • What Happens When Essential Commodities Become Luxuries?
  • Sudan Oil Exports Rising Despite Conflict
  • Nigeria’s Forcados Crude Resumes Loadings After Month-Long Halt
  • Analyst: Oil Is Heading Well Into The $90 Range
  • Gold Prices Dip As Recession Fears Fade
  • S&P 500, Nasdaq close higher Monday as tech stocks make a comeback: Live updates
  • Cruise vehicles cause weekend traffic jam one day after California approves 24-7 robotaxi service
  • More than 227,000 global tech workers have lost their jobs so far this year

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted August 14, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Mon Aug 14 2023

Valid 12Z Mon Aug 14 2023 – 12Z Wed Aug 16 2023

…Flash flooding and severe thunderstorms possible for the Great
Lakes/Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic Monday, lingering along the coast into
Tuesday…

…Portions of the South to see a brief reprieve from the heat mid-week as
a heat wave intensifies across the Pacific Northwest into the Northern
Rockies…

…Monsoonal showers continue across the Four Corners region with some
locally heavy downpours possible…

 

Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted August 13, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sun Aug 13 2023
Valid 12Z Sun Aug 13 2023 – 12Z Tue Aug 15 2023

…Flash flooding and severe thunderstorms possible for portions of the
Plains/Mississippi Valley Sunday, shifting to the Great Lakes/Ohio
Valley/Mid-Atlantic Monday…

…Dangerous heat persists across much of the South while another heat
wave begins across the Pacific Northwest Sunday…

…Monsoonal showers continue across the Four Corners region with some
locally heavy downpours possible…