Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 250 points or 0.73%,
• Nasdaq closed up 0.94%,
• S&P 500 closed up 0.67%,
• Gold $1,942 down $5.20,
• WTI crude oil settled at $80 up $1.00,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.239% up 0.004 points,
• USD Index $104.14 up $0.160,
• Bitcoin $25,650 down $70,
• Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. -10 to 632 Canada +1 to 190

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our Economic Forecast for August 2023

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

According to CoreLogic, annual single-family home rent growth eased for the 14^th consecutive month in June 2023, registering a 3.3% gain, which remains in close range of the pre-pandemic growth rate. Lower-priced rentals continue to see more demand and thus greater annual gains than their higher-priced counterparts, a trend that is partially due to declining affordability and one that has been increasingly exacerbated by inflation. Molly Boesel, principal economist for CoreLogic stated:

Annual single-family rent growth has returned to its long-term, pre-pandemic rate, but increases for attached properties were one-and-a half-times that of detached properties in June; this is historically not the case, as both housing types tend to rise at the same pace. However, while rent growth for attached properties lagged that of detached properties in 2020 and 2021, it has outpaced the latter in 2022 to 2023. Rent growth for attached homes is projected to continue to exceed that of detached properties as the market balances.

From Econoday:

Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks at the Jackson Hole Symposium delivered reinforcement of past comments regarding inflation and the outlook for interest rate policy. He said, “It is the Fed’s job to bring inflation down to our 2 percent goal, and we will do so. We have tightened policy significantly over the past year. Although inflation has moved down from its peak—a welcome development—it remains too high. We are prepared to raise rates further if appropriate, and intend to hold policy at a restrictive level until we are confident that inflation is moving sustainably down toward our objective.”

After rising sharply for the past several months, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment moved sideways in August with a small decline that is not statistically different from July. Sentiment reached its second highest reading in 21 months and is now about 39% above the all-time historic low reached in June of 2022. While buying conditions for durables and expectations over living conditions both improved, the long-run economic outlook fell back about 12% this month but remains higher than just two months ago. Consumers weighed a combination of positive and negative factors in the economy, which led to differing offsetting trends across demographic groups. Consumers perceive that the rapid improvements in the economy from the past three months have moderated, particularly with inflation, and they are tentative about the outlook ahead.

 

• Permian Rig Count Drops Amid Rising U.S. Crude Production
• Walmart Drones Set To Take Flight In Dallas
• Bullish Fundamentals Limit The Downside For Oil Prices
• Canada’s Oil Production Continues To Surge
• S&P, Nasdaq close higher, snapping 3-week losing streak as Wall Street shakes off rate hike fears: Live updates
• Fed Chair Powell calls inflation ‘too high’ and warns that ‘we are prepared to raise rates further’
• Stocks making the biggest moves midday: Nordstrom, Hasbro, Hawaiian Electric, Affirm and more
• Wegovy helps reduce heart failure symptoms in obese people, study says
• Tesla Investors Set For $12,000 Payout Each Over Musk’s “Funding Secured” Tweet
• US faces more interest rate rises to cool inflation
• Treasury selloff drives key 5-year yield to highest since 2008

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 373 points or 1.08%,
• Nasdaq closed down 1.87%,
• S&P 500 closed down 1.35%,
• Gold $1,945 down $2.70,
• WTI crude oil settled at $79 up $0.09,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.235% up 0.037 points,
• USD Index $104.01 up $0.590,
• Bitcoin $26,024 down $659,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our Economic Forecast for August 2023

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The number of CEO changes at U.S. companies surged in July, as 197 CEOs left their posts last month. It is the highest total since record-setting May, when 224 CEOs exited the top spot, according to a report released by Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc. July’s total is 67% higher than the 118 CEO exits recorded in June. It is 240% higher than the 58 CEO exits recorded in the same month in 2022. So far this year, 1,104 CEOs have left their posts, up 33% from the 832 CEO changes during the same period in 2022. It is the highest total in the first seven months of the year since the firm began tracking in 2002. Andrew Challenger, workplace expert and Senior Vice President of Challenger stated:

As layoffs slow, we’re beginning to see an increased pace of changes at the top. As staffing needs and hiring normalizes, Boards are looking for leadership with staying power.

New orders for manufactured durable goods in July decreased to 3.8% increase year-over-year in July 2023 (up 2.2% year-over-year inflation adjusted). This decline was entirely due to the civilian aircraft sector. Overall, durable goods is the only sector in manufacturing that is not in a recession.

Led by improvements in production-related indicators (orange line on the graph below), the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, modestly improved to –0.13 in July from –0.15 in June (purple line on the graph below).  The CFNAI is my preferred coincident indicator – and it shows a modestly improving economy expanding below its historical trend (average) rate of growth but well above levels associated with recessions.

The Kansas City Fed’s manufacturing activity was unchanged in August 2023. The month-over-month composite index was 0 in August, up from -11 in July and -12 in June. Overall manufacturing appears in the US remains in a recession.

In the week ending August 19, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims 4-week moving average was 236,750, an increase of 2,250 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 250 from 234,250 to 234,500.

• Nigerian Military Destroys 8 Illegal Refining Sites In Niger Delta
• India’s Slowing Oil Demand Growth To Weigh On Oil Prices
• Saudi Arabia, OPEC Powers Invited To Join BRICS
• New Mexico’s Record Oil Output To Generate $3.5 Billion Budget Surplus
• August once again lives up to its dismal reputation for stocks
• Nvidia earnings scare away AMD, Intel investors as legacy chipmakers lose ground in AI
• Bitcoin ordinals inscriptions have been climbing steadily this summer despite lull in prices
• Lionel Messi lifts MLS to new heights, but the league needs more than ‘the GOAT’ to grow
• Elon Musk Vows To Sue Soros-Funded NGOs Over Free Speech
• Jackson Hole Preview: “Do We Receive Another Hawkish Surprise?”
• Why AMD, Marvell, Intel and other chip stocks are falling after Nvidia earnings
• Movers & Shakers: Nvidia stock jumps after blowout quarter, while Dollar Tree and Boeing fall

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 184 points or 0.54%,
• Nasdaq closed up 1.59%,
• S&P 500 closed up 1.10%,
• Gold $1,946 up $20.00,
• WTI crude oil settled at $79 down $1.07,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.188% down 0.014 points,
• USD Index $103.40 down $0.160,
• Bitcoin $26,553 up $754,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our Economic Forecast for August 2023

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Sales of new single‐family houses in July 2023 were 31.5 percent above July 2022. The median sales price of new houses sold in July 2023 was $436,700. The average sales price was $513,000. The seasonally‐adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of July represents a supply of 7.3 months at the current sales rate.

It appears that imports into the US continue to worsen – this is usually a signal that the economy is slowing – but in this case, with so many varying dynamics, I would not be in a position to interpret the effect. Anyway. trade in general seems to be in a recession. Sea containers are a timely proxy for trade with the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach moving 40% of all US container imports / exports. In July 2023, imports are down 26% year-over-year whilst exports are down 6%.

 

• Innovative Electrolyzer Paves Way For Sustainable Propane Production
• Iran Oil Exports Surge above 2 Million Bpd
• Money Manager Sees $120 Oil Surprising Bears
• Nasdaq extends 3-day streak, S&P closes up 1% ahead of Nvidia earnings: Live updates
• Wagner boss Prigozhin listed as a passenger on crashed jet which killed 10 people
• Hollywood producers take heated negotiations with writers union public, revealing latest offer
• Binance.US turns to crypto startup MoonPay after U.S. banks sever ties: CNBC Crypto World
• Tucker And Trump Team Up To Upstage Fox’s GOP Debate
• Bond Report: 10-, 30-year Treasury yields end at one-week lows after batch of weak PMI data
• Market Snapshot: Nasdaq on pace for its best day in nearly a month ahead of Nvidia results

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 175 points or 0.51%,
• Nasdaq closed up 0.06%,
• S&P 500 closed down 0.28%,
• Gold $1,926 up $3.30,
• WTI crude oil settled at $80 down $0.47,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.326% down 0.014 points,
• USD Index $103.61 up $0.310,
• Bitcoin $25,831 down $282,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our Economic Forecast for August 2023

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Total existing-home sales – completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums, and co-ops – waned 2.2% from June to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.07 million in July. Year-over-year, sales slumped 16.6% (down from 4.88 million in July 2022). The median existing-home price for all housing types in July was $406,700, an increase of 1.9% from July 2022 ($399,000).  NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun stated:

Two factors are driving current sales activity – inventory availability and mortgage rates. Unfortunately, both have been unfavorable to buyers.

The Richmond Fed manufacturing index edged up from −9 in July to −7 in August 2023. Two of its three component indexes — shipments and new orders — also increased. The new orders index rose from −20 to −11. Manufacturing continues in a recession in the US.

• Global Oil Consumption Nears All-Time Highs
• South America Struggles To Balance Oil Economy And Environment
• Seaborne Coal Volumes Hit Record Highs In 2023
• Oil Prices Subdued But Bearish Catalysts Loom
• S&P 500 closes lower, weighed by declines in bank and retail shares: Live updates
• Amazon AI scammers blew millions on Lake Como wedding and cars, FTC alleges
• Home sales fall again in July, as supply drops to near quarter-century low
• AMC shares crater as investors brace for stock conversion
• Dick’s shares fall 24% as retailer slashes outlook over theft concerns
• Coinbase just took a stake in stablecoin issuer Circle. Here’s what it could mean for the crypto exchange
• S&P Joins Downgrade Party Of US Banks Due To “Tough” Climate
• Older Americans will spend 12 years living with disability or disease — why are we so unhealthy?

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.