12 Sept 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street Opened Lower, Climbed Sharply Higher, But Session Ended Lower

September 12, 2023Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 16 points or 0.05%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 1.04%,
  • S&P 500 closed down 0.57%,
  • Gold $1,936 down $11.5,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $89 up $1.71,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.266% down 0.022 points,
  • USD Index $104.73 up $0.160,
  • Bitcoin $26,097 up $1,092,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for September 2023

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

NFIB’s Small Business Optimism Index decreased 0.6 of a point in August to 91.3, the 20th consecutive month below the 49-year average of 98. 23% of small business owners reported that inflation was their single most important business problem, up two points from last month. I believe that Main Street is in a recession, and the index value for small businesses supports this opinion. NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg stated:

With small business owners’ views about future sales growth and business conditions discouraging, owners want to hire and make money now from strong consumer spending. Inflation and the worker shortage continue to be the biggest obstacles for Main Street.

The CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI) and HPI Forecast for July 2023 show U.S. home prices rebounded year over year in July, increasing to 2.5% and following two months of 1.6% annual gains. The annual reacceleration reflects six consecutive monthly gains, which drove prices about 5% higher compared to the February bottom. The 11 states that saw home price declines were all in the West, but since many of those markets continue to struggle with inventory shortages, that trend may be short-lived, and recent buyer competition will causes prices to heat up again. CoreLogic projects that all states that saw year-over-year losses in July will begin posting gains by October of this year.  Selma Hepp, chief economist for CoreLogic stated:

Annual home price growth regained momentum in July, which mostly reflects strong appreciation from earlier this year. That said, high mortgage rates have slowed additional price surges, with monthly increases returning to regular seasonal averages. In other words, home prices are still growing but are in line with historic seasonal expectations. Nevertheless, the projection of prolonged higher mortgage rates has dampened price forecasts over the next year, particularly in less-affordable markets. But as there is still an extreme inventory shortage in the Western U.S., home prices in some of those markets should see relatively more upward pressure.

 

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • U.S. Discovers Lithium Deposit Bigger Than Bolivia’s Salt Flats
  • Chevron To Be Majority Owner Of World’s Largest Hydrogen Production Facility
  • Oil Prices Soar To 10-Month High
  • Renewables Are Gaining Ground, But Coal Is Still King
  • Here’s everything Apple just announced at its 2023 event: iPhone 15 models, new Apple Watch, new AirPods
  • Nasdaq closes lower by 1% Tuesday as Apple slides and tech suffers, Oracle sheds 13%: Live updates
  • Sen. Blumenthal plans action against telemarketing scams masquerading as political, charitable causes
  • Oracle stock is poised for its steepest drop since 2002 on weak revenue guidance
  • US Real Household Incomes Slide For 3rd Year In A Row As White Incomes Tumble; Blacks, Hispanics Gain
  • 10Y Treasury Auction Prices On The Screws At Highest Yield Since Nov 2007
  • 8 commodities stocks touched their 52-week high, gaining up to 40% in a month
  • Market Snapshot: Stocks fall after Apple unveils iPhone 15, with U.S. inflation data looming

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Looking Back at August 2023 in the U.S. September 12, 2023

September 12, 2023Posted inweather2 Comments

Usually for this article where I provide a review of the prior month, I reproduce John Bateman’s email in its entirety.  But John Bateman has not yet sent out his email because NCEI has not yet published their review of August 2023.  I suspect the delay is due to the Labor Day weekend but there may have been other factors.  But I also like to add a few additional graphics, namely the state ranking maps after John Bateman’s email. These maps show how temperature and precipitation for each state rank relative to the 129 (article originally mistakenly said 139) years of what is considered to be the most reliable data we have.

That information became available today so I am publishing it tonight. When NCEI issues their report and if John Bateman sends me his email, I will publish it or the NCEI report which is the basis for John Bateman’s email separately.

Now we will discuss the State Rankings for the single month of August 2023.  Let me remind you that this shows where the Temperature and Precipitation in August rank within the 129-year history of that state. It is a good way to put August in perspective.

Three states set records for average temperature. That is a lot. Many others were much above average.

But only two states set a record for the maximum temperatures.

The same two states set a record for the highest minimum temperatures usually meaning there was a lot of humidity.  There were a lot of states that were much above average but not always the same states that were much above average in the first measure and graphic which is average temperature. It can get a bit confusing. High minimum temperatures mean a high use of air conditioning and for people without air conditioning, uncomfortable nights.

One state set a record for being the driest in its history. However, there were many states that had much above-average precipitation.

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted September 12, 2023

September 12, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Tue Sep 12 2023
Valid 12Z Tue Sep 12 2023 – 12Z Thu Sep 14 2023

…Cool, wet weather with heavy rainfall and flooding possible across the
Southwest and southern Plains…

…More heavy rain and possible flooding expected across the Northeast….

…Dangerous surf and rip current conditions developing along the East
Coast…
cone graphic

11 Sept 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: The Dow Makes Third Session Of Gains Joined By The Nasdaq And S&P 500

September 11, 2023Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 87 points or 0.25%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 1.14%,
  • S&P 500 closed up 0.67%,
  • Gold $1,946 up $2.80,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $87 down $0.31,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.288% up 0.032 points,
  • USD Index $104.54 down $0.550,
  • Bitcoin $24,995 down $780,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for September 2023

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

No releases today.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • China’s Influence In Central Asia Continues To Expand
  • Border Firefights Highlight Strained Pakistan-Taliban Relations
  • New Study Debunks Heat Pump Propaganda
  • Hurricane Season Stirs Supply Chain Concerns For U.S. Shippers
  • Russia’s Trade Nears Prewar Levels As It Defies G7 Sanctions
  • Jamie Dimon says it’s a ‘huge mistake’ to think economy will boom with so many risks out there
  • Stocks notch back-to-back wins Monday, Nasdaq pops 1% as tech shares rebound: Live updates
  • FDA approves updated Covid vaccines from Pfizer and Moderna as hospitalizations rise
  • Tesla shares soar 10% after Morgan Stanley upgrade
  • Bet against America’s love for junk food? Morgan Stanley sees tough times ahead for snack stocks like Hostess
  • Irrational exuberance! Last lot of new favorite mid, smallcap stocks in dubious category: Kotak Equities
  • Market Snapshot: Dow heads for third day of gains ahead of coming inflation, retail-sales data

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

The State of Joe Sixpack in 2Q2023: The Average Joe’s Situation Improved

September 11, 2023Posted inUncategorizedNo Comments

Written by Steven Hansen

The Federal Reserve data release (Z.1 Flow of Funds) – which provides insight into the finances of the average household – shows an increase in average household net worth and an improvement in income. Our modeled “Joe Sixpack” – who owns a house and has a job, but essentially no other asset – is better off than he was last quarter.

Select Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted September 10, 2023: Questions about Hurricane Lee Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted September 11, 2023: Still Watching Hurricane Lee

September 11, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Mon Sep 11 2023
Valid 12Z Mon Sep 11 2023 – 12Z Wed Sep 13 2023

…Decreasing temperatures with an increasing chance for showers and
thunderstorms expected across the Southwest early this week…

…Strong to severe thunderstorms and heavy rain expected across portions
of the southern Plains today…

…Unsettled weather with heavy rain and flooding possible across portions
of the Northeast today…
cone graphic

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted September 10, 2023: Questions about Hurricane Lee

September 10, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sun Sep 10 2023
Valid 12Z Sun Sep 10 2023 – 12Z Tue Sep 12 2023

…Dangerous heat to persist for one more day across portions of the
Southwest, before temperatures begin to steadily fall early this week…

…Showers and thunderstorms and cooler temperatures to spread across the
northern to central Plains and the Midwest…

…Locally heavy rain, with flash flooding possible today from the
southern and central Appalachians to New England…
cone graphic

Reporting on the State of the Climate in 2022 – September 9, 2023

September 9, 2023Posted inClimateNo Comments

Every year at about the same time, there is a report on the State of the Climate of the world as of the prior year.  Many organizations work together to produce and distribute this report.  I am presenting the NCEI-prepared highlights of the full report. Remember this report is about 2022 and the years leading up to 2022. It takes a little time for NOAA and the American Meteorological Society to prepare their report and in this article, I provide the Highlights of that report as prepared by NCEI. NCEI stands for the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information.

This article is worth reading. It just presents the highlights. My comments are inside boxes within the article.

This report can be accessed HERE but I have included all of the material that is in this report in this article.

The American Meteorological Society (AMS) version of the report has a lot more detail and can be accessed HERE.

The growth in all three greenhouse gases since 1980 is bad but the increase in methane is particularly concerning.

Nitrous oxide is a very very powerful GHG so its increase in growth rather is very concerning.

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted September 9, 2023: Eyes Still on Hurricane Lee

September 9, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sat Sep 09 2023
Valid 12Z Sat Sep 09 2023 – 12Z Mon Sep 11 2023

…Dangerous heat will build across the Southwest, while continuing across
parts of Texas…

…Widespread showers and storms and cooler temperatures will spread
across the northern to the central Plains and the upper to mid Mississippi
Valley…

…Unsettled weather will continue across the East, with locally heavy
rainfall and flooding possible…