Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 116 points or 0.33%,
• Nasdaq closed down 0.02%,
• S&P 500 closed up 0.18%,
• Gold $1,967 up $1.10,
• WTI crude oil settled at $86 up $2.25,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.179% up 0.088 points,
• USD Index $104.26 up $0.640,
• Bitcoin $25,618 down $482,
• Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. -1 to 631 Canada -3 to 187

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for September 2023

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 187,000 in August 2023 and the unemployment rate rose to 3.8 percent. Employment continued to trend up in health care, leisure and hospitality, social assistance, and construction. Employment in transportation and warehousing declined. There were a massive 736,000 people added to the workforce this month which fully explains the increase in the unemployment rate (this is from the household survey portion of the jobs report which extrapolates data from 50,000 households). Comparing the gains, the household survey increased employment by 222,000 whilst the establishment survey increased 187,000 which reasonably correlates. Average weekly earnings grew from $1,119 in August 2022 to $1,163 in August 2023. The bottom line is that employment gains have been growing for the last 2 months and remains relatively strong. The decline in transport jobs this month is an idiosyncrasy caused by several factors facing this sector.

Construction spending grew in July 2019 by 5.5% year-over-year (red line on the graph below). Inflation-adjusted, construction spending grew 1.7% year-over-year (blue line on the graph below).

The August 2023 Manufacturing PMI registered 47.6 percent, 1.2 percentage points higher than the 46.4 percent recorded in July. This figure indicates a ninth month of contraction after a 30-month period of expansion. The New Orders Index remained in contraction territory at 46.8 percent, 0.5 percentage points lower than the figure of 47.3 percent recorded in July. No question that the manufacturing sector remains in a recession.

• Drilling Continues To Disappoint As Oil Prices Climb
• Oil Reaches New 2023 High
• Massive Copper Theft Scandal Sends Shockwaves Through Metal Market
• The Largest Threat To The Solar Industry
• Oil Prices Climb As Traders Refocus On Fundamentals
• Hollywood sheds 17,000 jobs in August amid ongoing strikes
• Dow closes more than 100 points higher to kick off September, notches best week since July: Live updates
• Home prices may be on the verge of cooling off
• Dell has best day on stock market since its relisting in 2018 after earnings sail past estimates
• Russia Puts Its Longest Range Nuke-Capable Missile On Combat Duty, Nicknamed ‘Satan II’
• Market Snapshot: S&P 500 heads for weekly gain as U.S. stocks trade mixed after jobs report

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 168 points or 0.48%,
• Nasdaq closed up 0.11%,
• S&P 500 closed down 0.16%,
• Gold $1,967 down $6.10,
• WTI crude oil settled at $84 up $1.87,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.100% down 0.018 points,
• USD Index $103.62 up $0.460,
• Bitcoin $26,100 down $1,102,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for September 2023

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

According to NFIB’s monthly jobs report, 40% (seasonally adjusted) of small business owners reported job openings they could not fill in the current period, down two points from last month and the lowest level since February 2021. Seasonally adjusted, a net 36% of owners reported raising compensation in August, tying June’s reading, and marking the lowest reading since May 2021. A net 26% of owners plan to raise compensation in the next three months, up five points from July. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB Chief Economist stated:

More small business owners are planning to increase compensation in the next three months as unfilled job openings slipped in August. Even as openings fell on Main Street, owners are actively working to retain current employees and attract qualified applicants.

U.S.-based employers announced 75,151 cuts in August, a 217% increase from the 23,697 cuts announced one month prior. It is 267% higher than the 20,485 cuts announced in the same month in 2022, According to Challenger: “Job openings are falling, and American workers are more reluctant to leave their positions right now. The job market is resetting after the pandemic and post-pandemic hiring frenzy. Job openings are falling, and American workers are more reluctant to leave their positions right now. The job market is resetting after the pandemic and post-pandemic hiring frenzy.”

Real Disposable personal income (DPI) for July 2023 declined to 3.8% increase year-over-year (blue line on the graph below) and real personal consumption expenditures (PCE) moved up to 3.0% increase year-over-year (red line on the graph below). The price index which measures inflation for personal consumption expenditures INCREASED to 3.3% growth year-over-year (green line on the graph below. The price index for personal consumption expenditures excluding food and energy likewise grew to 4.1% year-over-year. Like I have been predicting, inflation is no longer falling but will be rising in the coming months.

CoreLogic reports that for the month of June, 2.6% of all mortgages in the U.S. were in some stage of delinquency (30 days or more past due, including those in foreclosure), representing a 0.3 percentage point decrease compared with 2.9% in June 2022 and unchanged from May 2023.

• Early-Stage Delinquencies (30 to 59 days past due): 1.3%, up from 1.2% in June 2022
• Adverse Delinquency (60 to 89 days past due): 0.4%, up from 0.3% in June 2022.
• Serious Delinquency (90 days or more past due, including loans in foreclosure): 1%, down from 1.3% in June 2022 and a high of 4.3% in August 2020.
• Foreclosure Inventory Rate (the share of mortgages in some stage of the foreclosure process): 0.3%, unchanged from June 2022.
• Transition Rate (the share of mortgages that transitioned from current to 30 days past due): 0.6%, down from 0.7% in June 2022.

In the week ending August 26, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted unemployment initial claims 4-week moving average was 237,500, an increase of 250 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 500 from 236,750 to 237,250.

The Chicago Business Barometer rose to 48.7 in August of 2023 from 42.8 in July. The reading marked the 12th consecutive month of contraction in business activity in the Chicago region but the smallest in the current sequence that began in September 2022.

• Analyst: BRICS Currency Unlikely To Undermine Dollar Dominance
• Fluorinated Aniliniums Lead To A Breakthrough In Perovskite Solar Cells
• Tesla Faces New Competition As European Auto Sales Soar
• Refiners Are Raking It In Amid Surge In Diesel Margins
• U.S. Gasoline Prices Rise Ahead Of Labor Day Weekend
• U.S. health officials want to loosen marijuana restrictions. Here’s what it means
• Shopify stock pops after company strikes ‘Buy with Prime’ deal with Amazon
• Here’s why some economists are concerned student loans may cause the next big bubble
• Philly Fed GDPplus Measure Sure Looks Like Recession Started In Q4 2022
• Ex-CIA Agent Who Signed Propaganda Letter About Hunter Biden Laptop Tried To Conceal Twitter Job

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 38 points or 0.11%,
• Nasdaq closed up 0.54%,
• S&P 500 closed up 0.38%,
• Gold $1,972 up $6.60,
• WTI crude oil settled at $82 up $0.44,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.118% down 0.004 points,
• USD Index $103.02 down $0.330,
• Bitcoin $27,255 down $606,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for September 2023

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Private sector employment increased by 177,000 jobs in August and annual pay was up 5.9 percent year-over-year, according to the August ADP National Employment Report. 177,000 job growth is higher than normal new workers entering the workforce – but continues to slow. Nela Richardson, ADP chief economist stated:

This month’s numbers are consistent with the pace of job creation before the pandemic, After two years of exceptional gains tied to the recovery, we’re moving toward more sustainable growth in pay and employment as the economic effects of the pandemic recede.

The second estimate of real gross domestic product (GDP) in 2Q2023 increased at an annual rate of 2.1 percent – down from 2.4% in the advance estimate. This is little changed In the first quarter, real GDP increased 2.0 percent. I prefer to analyze year-over-year growth as the primary metric for GDP which increased to 2.5% (blue line in the graph below). The good news is that inflation continues to abate as the implicit price deflator moderated to 3.5% year-over-year (red line on the graph below).

The National Association of REALTORS Pending home sales fell by 14.0% year-over-year in July 2023 – but is a significant improvement over the declines seen over the past year. You should expect continued improvement as the data is being compared to the terrible data over the past year. Pending Home Sales is a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings. NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun stated:

The small gain in contract signings shows the potential for further increases in light of the fact that many people have lost out on multiple home buying offers. Jobs are being added and, thereby, enlarging the pool of prospective home buyers. However, rising mortgage rates and limited inventory have temporarily hindered the possibility of buying for many.

• Energy Storage Sector Gears Up For Explosive Growth
• Saudis Pour Money Into American Lithium
• Shipping Woes Ease As Rates Drop To Pre-Pandemic Levels
• Oil Rises After EIA Confirms Major Crude Draw
• S&P 500 rises for a fourth straight day, major averages curtail monthly losses in late August hot streak
• How China became the king of new nuclear power, and how the U.S. is trying to stage a comeback
• HHS calls for easing restrictions on marijuana, sending cannabis stocks higher
• Grayscale CEO lays out next steps after ‘huge victory’ against SEC: CNBC Crypto World
• Mitch McConnell appears to freeze again, in another health scare for Senate’s top Republican

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.