Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted September 20, 2023

September 20, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Wed Sep 20 2023
Valid 12Z Wed Sep 20 2023 – 12Z Fri Sep 22 2023

…Much cooler, Fall-like temperatures and locally heavy rainfall for the
West…

…Above average heat forecast from the Plains to the Great Lakes through
Thursday…

…Chances for heavy rain and severe thunderstorms continue for the
Southern Plains…

Toward an ideal form of government?

Toward an ideal form of government?

September 20, 2023Posted inopinionNo Comments

China’s dramatic comeback over the past four decades has upended almost everything in the West, where prosperity was largely built on colonialism and imperialism over the past 500 years.

In this post, I will ask and answer two critical questions:

  • What is an ideal form of government?
  • How to get there from here?

19 Sept 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street’s Main Indexes Trended Lower After The Opening Bell Then Tried To Recoup Morning Losses Finally Closed Moderately Down

September 19, 2023Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 107 points or 0.31%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 0.23%,
  • S&P 500 closed down 0.22%,
  • Gold $1,953 down $0.60,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $92 up $0.17,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.365% up 0.046 points,
  • USD Index $105.14 down $0.060,
  • Bitcoin $27,180 up $377,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for September 2023

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Privately‐owned housing units authorized by building permits in August 2023 were 2.7 percent below August 2022. Privately‐owned housing starts in August were 14.8 percent below August 2022. Privately‐owned housing completions in August were 3.8 percent above August 2022. Residential construction is in a recession except for completions which surprisingly has remained in positive growth (both permits and starts are down indicating there are fewer homes being built in the last 16 months – at some point, construction completions must start contracting IF the data is correct).

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Tata Steel’s Port Talbot Set For £1.25 Billion Green Transformation
  • High Fuel Costs Challenge Airline Profits After Busy Summer
  • Exxon To Increase Oil Production In Nigeria
  • Oil Prices Climb As Bullish News Continues To Mount
  • Trans Mountain Expansion Set To Raise Crude Prices For Midwest Refiners
  • Instacart closes up 12% in Nasdaq debut, after first-day rally sputters
  • U.S. national debt hits $33 trillion for the first time
  • Defensive stocks for worried investors to buy if upcoming threats rattle the market
  • Outside the Box: Americans are working harder and making less. We need a new social safety net

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted September 19, 2023

September 19, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Tue Sep 19 2023
Valid 12Z Tue Sep 19 2023 – 12Z Thu Sep 21 2023

…Heavy rain and severe storm chances for parts of the Southern Plains on
Tuesday…

…Above average heat forecast for the Central U.S. through mid-week…

…Shower and storm chances as well as some chilly Fall temperatures begin
to spread across the West mid-week…

18 Sept 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Markets opened Mostly Lower, Trended Fractionally Higher Finally Closing Flat In The Green

September 18, 2023Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 6 points or 0.02%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 0.01%,
  • S&P 500 closed up 0.07%,
  • Gold $1,954 up $8.20,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $92 up $0.95,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.313% down 0.009 points,
  • USD Index $105.12 down $0.200,
  • Bitcoin $26,834 up $331,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for September 2023

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

40% of sea container imports come through the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach. Container statistics are published weeks to months before import data is released by the government. For the month of August 2023, there was an improvement (imports only down 4% and exports only down 2%) but as you can see from the graph below – imports and exports are below their historical averages. Imports are normally a sign of how well the US economy is performing, and imports are saying the economy is weak. The quantity of imports could have been elevated by container ships from Asia to east coast ports rerouting cargo to the west coast due to congestion / delays in the Panama Canal.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Oil Closes In On $95 Per Barrel, Hitting $100 In Some Markets
  • $6 Billion In Iranian Oil Funds Unfrozen As Tehran Releases U.S. Prisoners
  • U.S. Gasoline Prices Rise On Refinery Outages
  • ChatGPT’s Surprising Environmental Footprint Revealed
  • Striking unions impacting the economy at a level not seen in decades
  • Stellantis could close 18 facilities under UAW deal — here are the full details of its latest offer
  • S&P 500 closes little changed Monday as traders await Fed policy meeting: Live updates
  • Goldman says iPhone demand outpacing supply, sees more than 20% upside for Apple shares
  • Elon Musk says Twitter, now X, is moving to small monthly subscription and has 550 million users
  • Moderna Plunges After Pfizer Sees Just 24% Of Americans Seeking Covid Boosters
  • “How Do You Lose An F-35?”: US Military Can’t Find Stealth Jet After “Mishap”
  • Bitcoin climbs above $27,000 for the first time since August
  • Economic Report: UAW auto strike looms large for inflation and economy

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted September 18, 2023

September 18, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Mon Sep 18 2023
Valid 12Z Mon Sep 18 2023 – 12Z Wed Sep 20 2023

…Heavy rainfall with localized flash flooding possible for New England
Monday…

…Heavy rain and severe storm chances return to parts of the Southern
Plains on Tuesday…

…Hot late Summer temperatures for the heartland to start the week…

Consumer Credit and Inflation: Part 3

September 17, 2023Posted inmacroeconomicsNo Comments

The full data sets for the 71 years from 1952 to 2022 show no discernable association patterns (correlations) for household credit growth and inflation changes.1  Thus, we started an analysis by looking specifically at the various regimes of inflation change during the 71-year timeline.  The most recent post2 analyzed the eight time periods over 71 years with positive inflation surges.  This article analyzes the five periods for 1952-2022 with negative inflation (disinflation/deflation) surges.


From an image by Michal Jarmoluk from Pixabay

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted September 17, 2023

September 17, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
319 PM EDT Sun Sep 17 2023
Valid 00Z Mon Sep 18 2023 – 00Z Wed Sep 20 2023

…Shower and storm chances along the East Coast confine to New England on
Monday…

…Unsettled weather and severe storm chances return to parts of the
Southern Plains on Tuesday…

…Much above average high temperatures spread from the Northern Rockies
to the Northern Plains early this week…

Eight Dancing Queens & Kings at USDC 2023

Eight Dancing Queens & Kings at USDC 2023

September 16, 2023Posted inUncategorizedNo Comments

In a previous post (Dancing Queens & Kings: Call for Participation (4)), I highlighted eight dancing queens or kings as examples (age-group):

  • Linda Gill (S2).
  • Kristin Franceschi (S1).
  • Lou Nielson (S1).
  • Giovanni Fortezza (C).
  • Nichelle Kennedy (C).
  • Sara Granberg (B).
  • Alexis Salapatek (A).
  • Frank Li (S1).

Now, let me highlight how they did at USDC 2023 last week (9/4-10).

Looking Back at the Global Climate in August 2023 – This past August was the Warmest August on Record. But it was More Than That – September 16, 2023

September 16, 2023Posted inClimate, weatherNo Comments

Every month, John Bateman sends me a nice email. Usually, he sends me two: one about the U.S. and one about the world.  I do not recall receiving an email from him on the U.S. but I published my own article on August in the U.S. and you can find it HERE. Yesterday he sent me the email for the world. Since they are emails, I usually can not provide a link to what he sent me. He is a spokesperson (not sure that is the right description of his job) for NOAA both NCEI and other parts of NOAA.  For this monthly article, all of the information in his email comes from the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information so the information he includes in his email and much more can be found HERE. I published his article in full but included two additional graphics from NCEI namely the historical year by year record and the map of important events.

Obviously the headline this month is that August has been the warmest August since this data has been collected.  And it was also the fifth consequtive month of record ocean surface temperatures.

 

This is the record of August land and ocean temperature anomalies and this Augugust appears to have set a new record high. It is just speculation on my part but I think it is the stepwise rise in temperature we get with an El Nino. But some believe that other factors were a larger contributor to this in August and also in July than simply the increase in greenhouse gases. They may be correct in that many factors impact temperature and precipitation. In this article, we report what happened rather than try to explain why it happened. “Attribution” is always very complex.