Authored by Steven Hansen
EconCurrent‘s Economic Index improved and remains in positive territory. We do not see a recession baked in but there are now three major indicators signaling a recession Read on to understand the currents affecting our economic growth.
This article is based primarily on the June 27, 2023, USDA Crop Bulletin which covers the June 19 to June 25 period of time. The USDA report usually becomes available on Tuesdays but due to a personal problem, I was not able to publish it until Wednesday night.
It now seems more like an average crop. Both corn and soybeans had a very good start but the quality of the crop has been somewhat compromised by drought. Soybeans are doing a bit better than corn. The condition report is a bit worse this week. The weather was not that bad but key crops did not recover from a long period of inadequate precipitation.
We also include the recent report on cattle on feed. I vary these reports to give readers information on different crops.
The article includes a short international review of agricultural conditions.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
356 PM EDT Thu Jun 29 2023Valid 00Z Fri Jun 30 2023 – 00Z Sun Jul 02 2023
…Slight Risks of Excessive Rainfall are in effect over the central US on
Thursday and Saturday……There is an Moderate Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys on Thursday, and an Enhanced Risk of
severe weather over the Central High Plains Thursday evening……Excessive Heat Warnings and Advisories over parts of the
Central/Southern Plains, Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley, and Central Gulf
Coast……Air Quality alerts over parts of the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley,
Great Lakes, Western Ohio Valley, Central Appalachians, Northeast, and
Mid-Atlantic…
*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.
None
Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:
Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EDT Wed Jun 28 2023Valid 00Z Thu Jun 29 2023 – 00Z Sat Jul 01 2023
…Record heat expected from the Central to Southern Plains into the Lower
Mississippi Valley, Lower Ohio Valley,Lower Tennessee Valley and Central
Gulf coast……Smoke from Canadian wildfires to continue to produce poor air quality
from the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes, Mid West Ohio Valley and
Mid-Atlantic……Heat also forecast to build through the interior valleys of
California……Severe Thunderstorms possible from the Central Plains into the Mid
Mississippi Valley and Lower Ohio Valley……Elevated to critical Fire Weather conditions to persist from the Four
Corners region into the Southwest…
*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.
The CoreLogic S&P Case-Shiller 20-city composite index was down 1.7% year-over-year. Compared with the 2006 peak, the 20-city composite is up by 49%. Adjusted for inflation, which continues to remain concerningly elevated, the 20-city index showed a 3% increase compared with its 2006 high point. The latest CoreLogic’s latest Home Price Index projects that home prices nationally will average a 4% increase in 2023 compared with the previous year.
The Richmond Fed manufacturing activity remained relatively flat in June, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite manufacturing index rose from −15 in May to −7 in June. Two of its three component indexes — shipments and new orders — also improved but remained below zero. Manufacturing in the US remains in a recession.
New orders for manufactured durable goods in May were up 5.4% year-over-year (3.6% inflation-adjusted). Before one thinks this is a strong report – this monthly increase was almost totally due to Boeing’s new orders – and does not show a broad-based improvement in this sector.
US Consumer Confidence Improved Substantially in June to 109.7, up from 102.5 in May. Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board stated:
Consumer confidence improved in June to its highest level since January 2022, reflecting improved current conditions and a pop in expectations. Greater confidence was most evident among consumers under age 35, and consumers earning incomes over $35,000. Nonetheless, the expectations gauge continued to signal consumers anticipating a recession at some point over the next 6 to 12 months.
Sales of new single‐family houses in May 2023 were 25.9% above May 2022. The median sales price of new houses sold in May 2023 was $416,300 – down 7.6% year-over-year. The average sales price was $487,300. Not a surprise that when you sell a cheaper house – the sales volumes increase.
Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:
Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Tue Jun 27 2023Valid 12Z Tue Jun 27 2023 – 12Z Thu Jun 29 2023
…There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Northern
Mid-Atlantic……There is an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Central/Southern Plains on Tuesday and two areas of Slight Risk on
Wednesday over parts of Upper Mississippi Valley and Lower Mississippi
Valley……Excessive Heat Warnings and Advisories over parts of the Southwest,
Southern Plains, Lower Mississippi Valley, Central/Western Gulf Coast……Air Quality alerts over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley, Great
Lakes, and Ohio Valley…
*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.
Dallas Fed’s Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey’s production index fell three points to -4.2, a reading indicative of a slight contraction in output. The new orders sub-index has been in negative territory for more than a year and remained at -16.6.
Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:
Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
356 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2023Valid 00Z Tue Jun 27 2023 – 00Z Thu Jun 29 2023
…Oppressive heatwave over the south-central U.S. begins to expand into
the Plains/Midwest and Lower Mississippi Valley mid-week……Showers and thunderstorms will continue into Tuesday and Wednesday for
much of the Northeast……Rain chances for the northern tier of the West; a Critical Risk of Fire
Weather for the Four Corners region Tuesday…
This is a continuation of the analysis of each significant period of rising inflation since 1914. The first part1 covered the years up to the start of World War II. In this post, we cover the inflationary periods following World War II through 2022.
Photo by Alexander Grey on Unsplash.