NOAA Updates its October 2023 Weather Outlook on September 30, 2023 – There have been some significant changes from the Mid-Month Outlook.

October 2, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

At the end of every month, NOAA updates its Outlook for the following month which in this case is October of 2023. We are reporting on that tonight.

There have been some significant changes in the Outlook for October and these are addressed in the NOAA Discussion so it is well worth reading.  We provided the prior Mid-Month Outlook for October for comparison. It is easy to see the changes by comparing the Mid-Month and Updated Maps.

The article includes the Drought Outlook for October. NOAA also adjusted the previously issued Seasonal Drought Outlook to reflect the changes in the October Drought Outlook. We have included a map showing the water-year-to-date precipitation. We also provide the Week 2/3 Tropical Outlook for the World.

The best way to understand the updated outlook for October is to view the maps and read the NOAA discussion. I have highlighted the key statements in the NOAA Discussion.

I am going to start with graphics that show the updated Outlook for October and the Mid-Month Outlook for October. This is followed by a graphic that shows both the Updated Outlook for October and also the three-month outlook OND 2023. So you get the full picture in three graphics.

Here is the updated Outlook for October 2023

For Comparison Purposes, Here is the Mid-Month Outlook for October.

There have been some significant changes. Remember, it is the top set of maps that are the current outlook for October.

Combination of the Updated Outlook for October and the Three-Month Outlook

 

The top row is the Updated Outlook for the new month. There is a temperature map and a precipitation map. The second row is a three-month outlook that includes the new month. I think the outlook maps are self-explanatory. What is important to remember is that they show deviations from the current definition of normal which is the period 1991 through 2020.  So this is not a forecast of the absolute value of temperature or precipitation but the change from what is defined as normal or to use the technical term climatology.

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted October 2, 2023

October 2, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Mon Oct 02 2023
Valid 12Z Mon Oct 02 2023 – 12Z Wed Oct 04 2023

…There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern
High Plains on Monday…

…There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Southern High Plains on Monday and over parts of the Central/Southern
Plains on Tuesday…

…Moderate to heavy snow over parts of the higher elevations of Northern
Rockies…

 

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted October 1, 2023

October 1, 2023Posted inUncategorizedNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sun Oct 01 2023
Valid 12Z Sun Oct 01 2023 – 12Z Tue Oct 03 2023

…There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the east
coast of Florida on Sunday and over the Southern High Plains on Monday…

…There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Southern High Plains on Monday…

…Heavy snow over parts of the higher elevations of northeastern Utah…

 

Crop Report September 30, 2023 – Still Looking Good – Not Sure What a Government Shut Down will Entail

September 30, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

This article is based primarily on the September 26, 2023, USDA Crop Bulletin which covers the week ending September 24, 2023.  The full USDA Crop Bulletin can be accessed HERE

It again seems like an average crop which is good considering the late and poor start.  Because we published a few days late we were able to include the Crop Prices report that has indices for prices received and prices paid by farmers for their purchases but the ratio of prices received to prices paid is essentially the same in August as it was in July. But like all indices one sometimes has to look into the details to know how to interpret the indices and in this case the ratio of the price and cost indices. We show the summary and provide a link to the full report. Obviously, the full report is quite long and readers interested in this subject can follow the link provided and draw their own conclusions.

The article includes a short international review of agricultural conditions which are generally favorable. I also included U.S. crop-related weather forecasts.

We begin by taking a look at the impact of Tropical Storm Ophelia. It is probably too soon to assess the crop impacts which will show up in the USDA Crop Bulletin that will be issued on October 3 if the U.S. Government is not shut down.

Now on to the National Agriculture Summary.  The Tables below the summary have additional data. The boxes with my comments may be incomplete so for crops of interest check the data out yourself to be sure.

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted September 30, 2023

September 30, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sat Sep 30 2023
Valid 12Z Sat Sep 30 2023 – 12Z Mon Oct 02 2023

…Moderate snow over parts of the Sierra Nevada Mountains above 9000ft on
Saturday…

…Temperatures will be 15 to 20 degrees above normal over parts of the
Middle Mississippi Valley and Central Plains…

…Temperatures will be 10 to 20 degrees below average over parts of
California, the Great Basin, and the Pacific Northwest on Saturday…

 

Dancing Queens & Kings: frequently asked questions & answers

Dancing Queens & Kings: frequently asked questions & answers

September 30, 2023Posted inUncategorizedNo Comments

My forthcoming book “Dancing Queens & Kings” is calling for participation (Dancing Queens & Kings: Call for Participation (4)). The only requirement is that you have competed at the USDC or OSB (2023 inclusive). Below is the timeline:

  • 11/30/2023: 1 page highlighting your compelling story in pro/am ballroom dancing.
  • 12/31/2023: 8-page full story.
  • 3/31/2024: Book review by Sam Sodano and Wayne Eng.
  • 5/31/2024: Publication at Amazon.

I am looking for 50 participants and will accept up to 60 submissions of 1 page (1st come, 1st accepted). After your 1-page is accepted, your 8-page is almost guaranteed to be included in the book unless it is so poorly written that it is totally unsalvageable.

In this post, I will answer some FAQs (frequently asked questions).

29Sep2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Another Mixed Day On Wall Street. PCE Price Index Increasing To 3.5% YoY Inflation

September 29, 2023Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 158 points or 0.47%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 0.14%,
  • S&P 500 closed down 0.27%,
  • Gold $1865 down $13.70,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $91 down $0.83,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.581% down 0.016 points,
  • USD index $106.19 up $0.04,
  • Bitcoin $26,922 down $105
  • Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count down 7 to 623

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for October 2023

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

In August 2023, real disposable personal income (personal income less personal current taxes) from the BEA increased 3.7% year-over-year (down from 4.3% last month), and real personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased 2.3% year-over-year (down from 2.7% last month). The PCE price index increased 3.5% year-over-year – up from 3.4% last month – this shows inflation is again growing. Overall, this data set does not portray the U.S. as a thriving economy.

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment confirmed its early-month reading and was little changed this month, slipping a mere 1.4 index points from August and remaining 16% higher than a year ago. A small decline in consumer expectations over their personal finances was offset by a modest improvement in expected business conditions. Consumers are understandably unsure about the trajectory of the economy given multiple sources of uncertainty, for example over the possible shutdown of the federal government and labor disputes in the auto industry. Until more information emerges about these developments, though, consumers have reserved judgement on whether economic conditions have materially changed from the past few months.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • No Energy Transition Unless Tech Can Make It Cost Competitive: BlackRock
  • Oil, Gas Drilling Dips To February 2022 Low As Oil Prices Hover Near 2023 Highs
  • Oil Price Rally Meets Resistance Despite Bullish Catalysts
  • California Allows Early Move To Winter-Blend Gasoline As Prices Top $6
  • Republican spending plan fails House vote, fueling federal government shutdown fears
  • First co-defendant in Trump Georgia election case pleads guilty
  • State of emergency issued for NYC’s wettest day since Ida; rain, flooding expected to last hours
  • California Raises Minimum Wage For Fast-Food Workers
  • Putin Crowns New Wagner Chief, Tasked With Sending Fighters Back To Ukraine

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted September 29, 2023

September 29, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Fri Sep 29 2023
Valid 12Z Fri Sep 29 2023 – 12Z Sun Oct 01 2023

…There is a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
northern Mid-Atlantic/Southern New England…

…Moderate snow over parts of the Sierra Nevada Mountains above 9000ft on
Saturday…

…Temperatures will be 10 to 20 degrees below average over parts of
California, the Great Basin, and the Pacific Northwest on Saturday…