Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted July 14, 2023

July 14, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day
World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Fri Jul 14 2023

Valid 12Z Fri Jul 14 2023 - 12Z Sun Jul 16 2023

...Dangerous heat wave to stretch from the West Coast to the Gulf Coast;
at least 93 million people are under Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat
Advisories as of this morning....

...Friday features an expansive threat for Excessive Rainfall, highlighted
by a Moderate Risk for portions of the Northeast; severe weather likely in
the Central Plains...

...Saturday remains active with numerous heavy showers & storms in the
East; Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall in the southern High Plains...

13 July 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street Rallies Into Fourth Day Closing At Session Highs

July 13, 2023Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 48 points or 0.14%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 1.58%,
  • S&P 500 closed up 0.85%,
  • Gold $1,965 up $2.80,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $77 up $1.46,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.761% down 0.100 points,
  • USD Index $99.76 down $0.76,
  • Bitcoin $31,675 up $1412,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for July 2023

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The Producer Price Index‘s (PPI) growth has declined to 0.1% year-over-year (PPI less foods, energy, and trade is up 2.6% year-over-year). The goods portion of the PPI growth is now DOWN 4.2% year-over-year whilst the services portion is up 2.3% year-over-year. The bottom line here is that except for labor costs – inflation has mostly disappeared in the production portion of the economy. Interestingly, there is little correlation between inflation and the change in the cost of labor.

In the week ending July 8, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims 4-week moving average was 246,750, a decrease of 6,750 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 250 from 253,250 to 253,500.

My worries last month that a dockworker’s strike would affect trade fortunately never materialized. The Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach handle over 40% of all containerized cargo entering the United States. In June 2023 imports declined 18% year-over-year (same as last month) whilst exports declined 3% year-over-year (improved from -6% last month). In general, a decline in imports normally signals a slowing of consumer demand.

 

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Oil Prices Jump As Libya’s Largest Oilfield Goes Offline
  • Future Of Oil Demand Is Brighter Than You’ve Been Told
  • U.S. Natural Gas Loses Ground As Europe Leans On Solar Power
  • Russia’s Oil Exports Plunge To The Lowest Level Since March 2021
  • Actors union will join writers on strike, shutting down Hollywood
  • Stocks rise a fourth day on upbeat inflation data, S&P 500 and Nasdaq close at highest levels in 2023: Live updates
  • June wholesale prices rise less than expected in another encouraging inflation report
  • Russia To Overtake Saudi Arabia As The Largest OPEC+ Oil Producer
  • Market Snapshot: S&P 500 hovers near 4,500 as U.S. stocks climb for 4th day

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted July 13, 2023

July 13, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day
World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 PM EDT Thu Jul 13 2023

Valid 00Z Fri Jul 14 2023 – 00Z Sun Jul 16 2023

…A couple rounds of heavy rain could trigger additional flash flooding
over interior New England through tonight…

…Additional rounds of severe weather and flash flooding persist across
the central Plains, mid-Mississippi Valley and into the eastern Gulf Coast
over the next couple days…

…Significant heat wave continues to expand across much of the western
and southern tier of the U.S….

12 July 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: U.S. Inflation Report Spurs Wall Street Rally Sending Main Indexes Moderately Higher At The Close

July 12, 2023Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 86 points or 0.25%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 1.15%,
  • S&P 500 closed up 0.74%,
  • Gold $1,964 up $26.90,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $76 up $1.15,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.867% down 0.115 points,
  • USD Index $100.55 down $1.19,
  • Bitcoin $30,288 down $300,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for July 2023

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 3.0% over the last 12 months. The all items less food and energy index rose 4.8% over the last 12 months. The index for shelter was the largest contributor to the monthly all-items increase, accounting for over 70% of the increase, with the index for motor vehicle insurance also contributing. This data was better than expectations which were 3.1% year-over-year for the all-items index and 5.0% for the all-items less food and energy. The federal funds rate is now slightly above both the all-items and all items less food and energy. I believe the federal funds rate must be higher than the inflation rate to begin a more permanent moderation of inflation. The future issues remain energy (which is currently in another up cycle) and labor costs (labor costs are currently growing well above the federal funds rate).

According to the July 12, 2023 Beige Book:

Overall economic activity increased slightly since late May. Five Districts reported slight or modest growth, five noted no change, and two reported slight and modest declines. Reports on consumer spending were mixed; growth was generally observed in consumer services, but some retailers noted shifts away from discretionary spending. Tourism and travel activity was robust, and hospitality contacts expected a busy summer season. Auto sales remained unchanged or exhibited moderate growth across most Districts. Manufacturing activity edged up in half of the Districts and declined in the other half. Transportation activity was down or flat in most Districts that reported on it, as some contacts reported reduced demand due to high inventory levels and others noted continued challenges from labor shortages. Banking conditions were mostly subdued, as lending activity continued to soften. Despite higher mortgage rates, demand for residential real estate remained steady, although sales were constrained by low inventories. Construction for both residential and commercial units was slightly lower on balance. Agricultural conditions were mixed geographically but softened slightly on balance, with some contacts expecting further softening for the remainder of 2023. Energy activity decreased. Overall economic expectations for the coming months generally continued to call for slow growth.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Ecuador’s Energy Imports Exceed Exports For First Time In 50 Years
  • Coal-Addicted South Africa Unlikely To Hit Renewables Targets
  • Brent Oil Price Rises Above $80 Per Barrel As Supply Tightens
  • Toyota: Explosive Growth In EV Production Could Spark Mineral Shortage
  • Heatwave Forces French Nuclear Power Plants To Curb Output
  • Inflation rose just 0.2% in June, less than expected as consumers get a break from price increases
  • S&P 500, Nasdaq close at highest levels since April 2022, buoyed by cooler-than-expected inflation report: Live updates
  • Amazon’s Prime Day off to a strong start, early data shows
  • US inflation rises at slowest pace in two years
  • Futures Movers: Oil prices settle at highest since late April, buoyed by a weaker dollar and supply cuts

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted July 12, 2023

July 12, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day
World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
410 PM EDT Wed Jul 12 2023

Valid 00Z Thu Jul 13 2023 – 00Z Sat Jul 15 2023

…Additional rounds of severe weather and flash flooding persist across
the Mississippi Valley, Midwest, and Plains over the next couple days…

…Heavy rain potential returns to the Northeast Thursday…

…Building heat wave continues to expand across much of the western and
southern tier of the U.S….

11 July 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street’s Three Main Indexes Opened Sharply Higher, Trended Higher, Finally Closing At Session Highs

July 11, 2023Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 317 points or 0.93%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 0.55%,
  • S&P 500 closed up 0.67%,
  • Gold $1,937 up $5.80,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $75 up $1.93,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.985% down 0.022 points,
  • USD Index $101.70 down $0.27,
  • Bitcoin $30,582 up $237,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for July 2023

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

NFIB’s Small Business Optimism Index increased 1.6 points in June to 91.0, however, it is the 18th consecutive month below the 49-year average of 98. Inflation and labor quality are tied as the top small business concerns with 24% of owners reporting each as their single most important problem. The net percent of owners raising average selling prices decreased three points to a net 29% seasonally adjusted, still a very inflationary level but trending down. This is the lowest reading since March 2021. NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg stated:

Halfway through the year, small business owners remain very pessimistic about future business conditions and their sales prospects. Inflation and labor shortages continue to be great challenges for small businesses. Owners are still raising selling prices at an inflationary level to try to pass on higher inventory, labor, and energy costs.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Goldman Sachs’ Currie: Oil’s Rally Is Unloved
  • China Shaking Up Its Power, Oil, And Gas Markets
  • Brent Breaches $79 On OPEC’s Production Cut Pledges
  • Russia’s Crude Oil Exports Start To Show Signs Of Decline
  • OPEC Expects Global Energy Demand To Jump By 23% By 2045
  • Dow closes 300 points higher Tuesday as key consumer inflation report looms: Live updates
  • This is why miners are selling their bitcoin at levels not seen since 2019
  • Bank of America fined $150 million for consumer abuses including fake accounts, bogus fees
  • The ‘Bitcoin Family’ has a special algorithm that tracks moon cycles — and it’s helped them gain 50% since the bear market bottom
  • Futures Movers: Crude oil ends higher, Brent at highest since April, with U.S. supply data ahead

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted July 11, 2023

July 11, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information. (You can update this section here, but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

The color coding is as follows.   severe,  wet, cold,  warm, normal

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Tue Jul 11 2023

Valid 12Z Tue Jul 11 2023 – 12Z Thu Jul 13 2023

…Additional rounds of severe weather and flash flooding persist across
the Plains and Midwest over the next few days…

…Anomalously hot Summer weather forecast throughout much of the Southern
Tier…

…Near average temperatures and generally tranquil conditions for the
Northeast and portions of the West…

10 July 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street Market’s Opened Higher, Traded Sideways, Closed Moderately Higher

July 10, 2023Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 210 points or 0.62%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 0.18%,
  • S&P 500 closed up 0.24%,
  • Gold $1,931 down $1.30,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $73 down $0.64,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.006% down 0.042 points,
  • USD Index $101.97 down $0.31,
  • Bitcoin $30,926 up $683,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for July 2023

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

May 2023 sales of merchant wholesalers were down 4.0% from the revised May 2022 level. Total inventories of merchant wholesalers were up 3.7% from the revised May 2022 level. The May inventories/sales ratio for merchant wholesalers was 1.41 – the May 2022 ratio was 1.30. Overall, it seems sales are worsening in this sector. It is hard to see the overall economic situation just looking at wholesale sales as there is a myriad of dynamic forces at play – and many are not economic such as supply chain changes.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • China’s Metal Export Restrictions Leave Traders Scrambling
  • UAE Will Not Make Voluntary Oil Production Cuts
  • Norway Makes Biggest Hydrocarbon Discovery In 10 Years
  • Iraq Inks Long-Awaited $27 Billion Energy Deal With TotalEnergies
  • The American banking landscape is on the cusp of a seismic shift. Expect more pain to come
  • Home prices are hitting new highs again, as high rates put the squeeze on supply
  • Dow closes 200 points higher Monday to snap 3-day losing streak: Live updates
  • Bonds Bid As Hawkish ‘High(er) For Long(er)’ FedSpeak Spooks Growth Stocks
  • Bond Report: 2-year Treasury yield slips to almost two-week low ahead of Wednesday’s CPI data

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted July 10, 2023

July 10, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated Monday Afternoon July 10, 2023: Notice the warning for Vermont and nearby areas.

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
241 PM EDT Mon Jul 10 2023

Valid 00Z Tue Jul 11 2023 – 00Z Thu Jul 13 2023

…Significant to catastrophic flooding is expected to continue across
much of Vermont and nearby sections of New England through tonight…

…Additional rounds of severe weather and flash flooding concerns persist
across the Central/Southern Plains and Midwest over the next few days…

…Anomalously hot weather forecast throughout much of the Southern Tier
into midweek…

Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted July 9, 2023

July 9, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
359 PM EDT Sun Jul 09 2023

Valid 00Z Mon Jul 10 2023 – 00Z Wed Jul 12 2023

…Heavy rain is likely to produce the potential for significant flash
flooding throughout parts of the Northeast tonight and into New England on
Monday…

…Additional rounds of severe weather and flash flooding persist across
the Central/Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley…

…Anomalously hot weather continues for portions of the Florida
Peninsula, Texas, and the Southwest…