America: It is democracy, stupid!
In a previous post, I called out “America: It is the political system, stupid!” What, then, is America’s political system?
Democracy!
In other words, “it is democracy, stupid!”
10 Oct 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Treasury yields Fall, Wall Street Rises, Dow Closes Moderately Higher For Third Session
Summary Of the Markets Today:
- The Dow closed up 135 points or 0.40%,
- Nasdaq closed up 0.58%,
- S&P 500 closed up 0.52%, (low 4,357)
- Gold $1,874 up $9.70,
- WTI crude oil settled at $86 down $0.55,
- 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.659% down 0.123 points,
- USD Index $105.76 down $0.320,
- Bitcoin $27,397 down $219,
*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.
Click here to read our Economic Forecast for October 2023
Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index decreased half of a point in September to 90.8. September’s reading marks the 21st consecutive month below the 49-year average of 98. Twenty-three percent of owners reported that inflation was their single most important problem in operating their business, unchanged from last month and tied with labor quality as the top concern. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB Chief Economist stated:
Owners remain pessimistic about future business conditions, which has contributed to the low optimism they have regarding the economy. Sales growth among small businesses have slowed and the bottom line is being squeezed, leaving owners few options beyond raising selling prices for financial relief.
August 2023 sales of merchant wholesalers were down 1.7% from August 2022. Total inventories were down 1.0% from the revised August 2022 level. The August inventories/sales ratio for merchant wholesalers was 1.36. The August 2022 ratio was 1.35. Overall, my view is that this economic sector is little changed from one year ago.
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data today released the September 2023 Survey of Consumer Expectations, which shows that inflation expectations increased slightly at the short- and medium-term horizons, while they decreased at the longer-term horizon. Labor market expectations were mixed with unemployment expectations deteriorating and perceived job loss risk improving. Households’ perceptions and expectations for credit conditions deteriorated slightly.
Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:
- Crude Prices Begin Retreat After Monday’s Surge
- Copper Prices Decline As Global Renewable Hopes Fall Short
- U.S. Oil Exports Hit Record In H1: EIA
- Tesla Vehicles Now Priced To Compete With Traditional ICE Vehicles
- Investors Dump Renewable Energy Funds At A Record Pace
- Dow adds more than 100 points to notch third positive day, as falling Treasury yields lift stocks: Live updates
- There’s a ‘good likelihood’ that the market bottom is in, Fundstrat says
- Bank of England warns U.S. tech stock valuations may be out of whack
- NY Fed Survey Finds Surge In Household Delinquency Expectations, Worst Since April 2020 Covid Crash
- People struggle to leave Israel as flights book up
Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.
Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted October 10, 2023
Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.
We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Tue Oct 10 2023
Valid 12Z Tue Oct 10 2023 – 12Z Thu Oct 12 2023…Colder and unsettled weather to move east from the Pacific Northwest
and northern California through mid-week while above average temperatures
shift into parts of the Great Plains……Surge of tropical moisture to bring an increased threat for heavy rain
and flash flooding for portions of the Gulf Coast through Wednesday…
09 Oct 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street Main Indexes Open Sharply Lower, Then Start Trending Upwards After Discounting Many Israel-Hamas War Fears, Closing Moderately Higher In The Green
Summary Of the Markets Today:
- The Dow closed up 197 points or 0.59%,
- Nasdaq closed up 0.39%,
- S&P 500 closed up 0.63%, (low 4,284)
- Gold $1,876 up $31.10,
- WTI crude oil settled at $86 up $3.57,
- 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.795% up 0.079 points,
- USD Index $106.04 up $0.008,
- Bitcoin $27,614 down $292,
*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.
Click here to read our Economic Forecast for October 2023
Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:
No releases today due to Columbus Day et al
Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:
- U.S. Prices At The Pump Decline, Trend Set To Continue
- Why Tin Prices Continue To Decline
- The New Global Oil Market Order Hangs In The Balance After Hamas Attacks Israel
- Oil Prices Rally After Hamas Attack Alters Geopolitical Risk Premium
- Dow closes nearly 200 points higher, as investors shake off rising oil prices from Israel-Hamas war: Live updates
- Israel orders total siege of Gaza; nine Americans confirmed dead in Hamas attack: Live updates
- Morgan Stanley says stock market may break down again so buy these top dividend payers
- Stocks making the biggest moves midday: General Dynamics, United Airlines, Spotify and more
- Vast Majority On Wall Street Think Next 100bps Move In 10Y Yields Is Lower
- Futures Movers: Oil prices rally by more than 4% as Hamas attack on Israel raises risks to Middle East supplies
Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.
Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted October 9, 2023
Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.
We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Mon Oct 09 2023
Valid 12Z Mon Oct 09 2023 – 12Z Wed Oct 11 2023…Colder and unsettled weather to move east from the Pacific Northwest
and northern California through mid-week while above average temperatures
shift from the Interior West into the Great Plains……Below average temperatures continue for the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley
while lake effect showers persist through Tuesday……Surge of tropical moisture to bring an increased threat for heavy rain
and flash flooding for southern Texas on Tuesday…
Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted October 8, 2023 – Tropical Storm Philippee remnants will hit Maine Today
Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.
We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sun Oct 08 2023
Valid 12Z Sun Oct 08 2023 – 12Z Tue Oct 10 2023…Heavy rain from the remnants of Philippe will come to an end across
Maine this morning but lingering areas of flooding and gusty winds will
remain into the day……Below average temperatures for much of the Great Lakes and eastern U.S.
along with lake effect rain showers and thunderstorms downwind of the
Great Lakes……Colder and wetter weather to arrive on the West Coast Monday, but above
average warmth to remain for the Interior West and Rockies..
Mortgage Debt and Inflation: Part 2
The full data sets for the 71 years from 1952 to 2022 show no discernable association patterns (correlations) for mortgage debt growth and inflation changes.1 This post continues that analysis by looking specifically at the various regimes of inflation change during the 71-year timeline.
From a photo by Tierra Mallorca on Unsplash
Information on Droughts October 7, 2023
Drought has been a problem this year in the corn and soybean growing area but it has been an ongoing problem for some time. Global Warming makes it worse especially in areas where it leads to reduced precipitation. But in all areas, it results in higher rates of evaporation and possible transpiration.
We are not going into drought in detail in this article but I am showing you some of what comes across my desk from NOAA that you might find interesting.
| You need to click HERE to watch the droughts unfold. Then you can scroll down to see how drought unfolded since 1921. It uses different metrics than the current drought monitor which allows us to go back farther in time. It is very dramatic. It was not possible for me to directly show the images in this article. |
Now we will take a look a the drought history from 2000 to 2020
| I have not included the criteria for the various categories of drought but you can see that since the Drought Monitor has been in existence drought has been fairly prevalent with short periods of minimal drought. |
Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted October 7, 2023 – Tropical Storm Philippee may hit Maine
Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.
We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sat Oct 07 2023
Valid 12Z Sat Oct 07 2023 – 12Z Mon Oct 09 2023…Remnants of Philippe to bring heavy rainfall with the risk of flash
flooding as well as gusty winds to the Northeast through early Sunday
morning……Much cooler temperatures to spread eastward from the central U.S. into
much of the eastern U.S. this weekend……Much above average temperatures and dry conditions for the West…
06 Oct 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: The Dow Surges Sharply Higher After Wall Street’s Jobs Report; But Is It Enough To Continue A Bull Run?
Summary Of the Markets Today:
- The Dow closed up 288 points or 0.87%,
- Nasdaq closed up 1.60%,
- S&P 500 closed up 1.18%, (low 4,220)
- Gold $1,845 up $12.80,
- WTI crude oil settled at $83 up $0.57,
- 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.795% up 0.079 points,
- USD Index $106.07 down $0.260,
- Bitcoin $27,980 up $484,
- Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. -4 to 619 Canada -11 to 180
*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.
Click here to read our Economic Forecast for October 2023
Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:
The markets were hoping for small employment gains in expectation that the Fed would stop raising the federal funds rate but instead, the total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 336,000 in September 2023 with the unemployment rate unchanged at 3.8%. The largest job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality (96,000); government (73,000); and health care (65,900). Any job gains over 150,000 is considered enough to provide jobs to those newly entering the workforce. The September employment gain was the second largest of 2023.
Interestingly, the household survey of the employment report showed only 90,000 employment gains against the headline establishment survey gain of 336,000 which throws into question the large gains of the establishment survey.
In August 2023, consumer credit decreased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.8%. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 13.9%, while nonrevolving credit decreased at an annual rate of 9.8%. I personally do not like the Federal Reserve’s methods for calculating changes in growth – I use year-over-year growth to remove the volatility. Using year-over-year methodology, consumer credit growth fell to 4.0% (blue line on the graph below), and adjusting for inflation growth was 2.0% year-over-year (red line on the graph below). The bottom line is that overall consumer credit is growing around the historical average, however, credit card (revolving credit) use has returned to the levels seen in the higher inflation periods of 1970s to 2000.
Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:
- WTO Forecasts Global Trade Slowdown Amid Economic Headwinds
- U.S. Oil Rigs Decrease for Second Week Running, Gas Rigs Rise
- Central Banks Continue To Boost Gold
- Oil Traders Should Be Weary Of A Bear Trap
- Russia Escalates War With Nuclear Tests And Civilian Killings
- Dow soars nearly 300 points Friday as stocks reverse sharp losses after hot jobs report: Live updates
- Here’s where the jobs are for September 2023 — in one chart
- Wall Street will seek confirmation inflation is easing in the week ahead after Friday’s jobs report
- 10-year Treasury yield rises after strong U.S. jobs report
- Market Extra: Why 5% bond yields could wreak havoc on the market
- Treasury yields are climbing: ‘There’s never really been such an attractive opportunity for fixed-income investments’
Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.