Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted July 22, 2023

July 22, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 1:15 p.m. EDT Sunday, July 23, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day
World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sun Jul 23 2023

Valid 12Z Sun Jul 23 2023 – 12Z Tue Jul 25 2023

…Excessive Heat Warnings and Advisories from parts of California, the
Northern Intermountain Region, Southwest, and the Great Basin; a second
area in Florida and the Western Gulf Coast…

…There are Air Quality Alerts over parts of the Upper Mississippi
Valley…

21 July 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Dow Marks Tenth Day Of Closing Higher, Investors Seriously Wondering How Much Longer Before The Fat Lady Sings Her Heart Out

July 21, 2023Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 3 points or 0.01%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 0.22%,
  • S&P 500 closed up 0.03%,
  • Gold $1,965 down $6.10,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $77 up $1.29,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.837% down 0.017 points,
  • USD Index $101.08 up $0.20,
  • Bitcoin $29,892 up $154,
  • Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. -6 to 669 Canada unchanged at 187

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for July 2023

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

None

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Europe Backs Kazakhstan’s Efforts To Sidestep Russian Influence
  • China And Russia Kick Off Joint Military Exercises In Sea Of Japan
  • U.S. Oil Rig Count Continues To Drop
  • A Nickel Glut Is Looming
  • U.S. Natural Gas Prices Set For First Weekly Gain In Four Weeks
  • Wall Street rides high into next week as traders brace for a major Fed decision and key earnings
  • The gender wage gap is now the smallest it’s been since it started being tracked in 1979
  • Regional bank yields have fallen but plenty are still paying more than 4%
  • Wind And Solar Are Not Cheaper Than Coal And Oil
  • Futures Movers: Oil prices score a 4th straight weekly gain
  • Ron DeSantis threatens legal action against Budweiser for ‘radical’ advertising campaign

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

NOAA Updates it’s Seasonal Outlook – July 22, 2023

July 21, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

On the third Thursday of the month right on schedule NOAA issued what I describe as their Four-Season Outlook. The information released also included the Mid-Month Outlook for the following month plus the weather and drought outlook for the next three months.  I present the information issued by NOAA and try to add context to it. It is quite a challenge for NOAA to address the subsequent month, the subsequent three-month period as well as the twelve successive three-month periods for a year or a bit more. A seasonal drought outlook is also issued.

It is very useful to read the excellent discussion that NOAA issues with this Seasonal Outlook.  The overall level of confidence in the Seasonal Outlook is addressed in the NOAA discussion. It is best to read the full discussion but here are some of the highlights:

Re ENSO:

  • The observed weekly SSTs, centered on July 12, feature positive anomalies throughout the equatorial Pacific with the largest anomalies of more than +1 degree C generally east of 160°W.
  • The CFSv2 continues to depict a strong El Niño by ASO, while the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) mean keeps the anomalies below 1.5 degrees C. The statistical tools vary with the strength of the El Niño during the next six months. As of early July, NOAA’s CPC forecast calls for more than a 90 percent chance of El Niño persisting through JFM 2024 with a 52 percent chance of a strong El Niño (> 1.5 degrees C) during OND 2023.

For August

  • The August temperature outlook favors above normal temperatures over much of Alaska, consistent with dynamical model guidance and the monthly temperature consolidation.
  • Widespread above normal temperatures are favored over much of the contiguous U.S. (CONUS), supported by the consolidation of statistical and dynamical forecast tools. Probabilities for above normal temperatures exceed 60 percent over the Pacific Northwest, due to dynamical model forecasts and dry soil moisture anomalies.
  • Below normal temperatures are favored for parts of the eastern Northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley.
  • El Niño impacts favor potential troughing over the eastern central CONUS with northerly flow into this region.
  • Statistical forecasts based on the current state of ENSO predict a larger area of favored below normal temperatures, resulting in a reduction in probabilities of above normal temperatures for much of the east-central CONUS.
  • Above average SST anomalies along the Gulf and East Coasts increase the probability of above normal temperatures in these regions.
  • The August precipitation outlook favors below normal precipitation near the coast of the southwestern Alaska Mainland.
  • Though above normal precipitation is slightly favored in southwestern Arizona at the start of the month by the Week 3-4 Outlook, El Niño impacts and statistical forecast tools favor a suppressed monsoon for the full month of August.
  • Below normal precipitation is favored for much of the Southwest Monsoon region from West Texas to northeastern Arizona and northward across the Intermountain West into parts of eastern Oregon and southern Idaho.
  • Above normal precipitation is favored from eastern areas of the Central Plains across the central Mississippi Valley to the Atlantic Coast, along a preferred potential storm track and supported by the consolidation of precipitation forecast tools.
  • Above normal precipitation is favored from northeastern Florida along the Atlantic Coast into southern New England, supported by the consolidation.

For ASO 2023:

  • The August-September-October (ASO) 2023 temperature outlook favors above-normal seasonal mean temperatures across a majority of the U.S.
  • The highest probabilities (more than 60 percent) of above-normal temperatures are forecast across parts of the Southwest.
  • The ASO precipitation outlook depicts elevated probabilities of below-normal precipitation for parts of the Southwest and Pacific Northwest,
  • while above-normal precipitation is favored across much of the central and southern Great Plains, parts of the Middle to Lower Mississippi Valley, the Tennessee Valley, and the central Atlantic Coast from the Carolinas to southern Virginia.
  • Equal chances (EC) are forecast in areas where the likelihood of seasonal mean temperatures or seasonal accumulated precipitation amounts are expected to be similar to climatological probabilities.

Beyond ASO 2023:

  • Beginning in NDJ 2023-24 through JFM 2024, predicted El Niño conditions result in enhanced chances for above-normal temperatures across the northern tier of the CONUS with an increasing coverage of EC across California, the Southwest, Southern Great Plains, and Lower Mississippi Valley.
  • During the winter 2023-24, above-normal temperatures are favored across the East based on the statistical consolidation.
  • From MAM to ASO 2024, the temperature outlook is consistent with decadal trends.
  • The [precipitation] outlook for SON maintains most of those signals , except for the signal in the Plains as SON are not the core monsoon months.
  • During OND the area where above-normal precipitation is favored expands from the Southeast to the Southern Plains, associated with likely impacts from the predicted states of ENSO. Correspondingly odds for below-normal precipitation expand in the Northwest.
  • During NDJ 2023 to JFM 2024, the outlooks largely favor above-normal precipitation across the southern tier and below-normal precipitation across the northern tier of the CONUS. That pattern is largely aligned with ENSO impacts and model guidance.
  • From FMA 2024 through ASO 2024, the outlooks primarily reflect the consolidation of available tools, which largely follows trends and ENSO impacts.

Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted July 21, 2023

July 20, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day
World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Valid 00Z Fri Jul 21 2023 – 00Z Sun Jul 23 2023

…The highest risk of flash flooding/severe storms should persist into
Thursday night in and near the Colorado/Kansas Border…

…Lengthy & dangerous heat wave to continue across the Southern Tier & in
the West…

…Cooler and more comfortable air-mass to engulf the Great Plains and
Midwest…

20 July 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Dow Closes Higher For The Ninth Session, Netflix Drags Down Nasdaq, Markets Close Mixed

July 20, 2023Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 164 points or 0.47%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 2.05%,
  • S&P 500 closed down 0.68%,
  • Gold $1,973 down $7.90,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $76 up $0.28,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.848% up 0.106 points,
  • USD Index $100.82 up $0.54,
  • Bitcoin $29,745 down $310,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for July 2023

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The Philly Fed July 2023 Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey was little changed at a reading of -13.5, its 11th consecutive negative reading. The survey’s indicators for general activity and new orders remained negative. Furthermore, the index for shipments declined and turned negative. The employment index suggests mostly steady employment overall. The prices paid index remained below its long-run average, while the prices received index rose. Most future indicators improved, suggesting more widespread expectations for overall growth over the next six months. The manufacturing sector remains in a recession.

Total existing-home sales fell 18.9% year-over-year. The median existing-home price3 for all housing types in June was $410,200, the second-highest price of all time and down 0.9% from the record-high of $413,800 in June 2022. NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun stated:

The first half of the year was a downer for sure with sales lower by 23%. Fewer Americans were on the move despite the usual life-changing circumstances. The pent-up demand will surely be realized soon, especially if mortgage rates and inventory move favorably.

In the week ending July 15, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims 4-week moving average was 237,500, a decrease of 9,250 from the previous week’s unrevised average of 246,750.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. declined by 0.7 percent in June 2023 to 106.1 (2016=100), following a decline of 0.6 percent in May. The LEI is down 4.2 percent over the six-month period between December 2022 and June 2023—a steeper rate of decline than its 3.8 percent contraction over the previous six months (June to December 2022). Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board added:

The US LEI fell again in June, fueled by gloomier consumer expectations, weaker new orders, an increased number of initial claims for unemployment, and a reduction in housing construction. The Leading Index has been in decline for fifteen months—the longest streak of consecutive decreases since 2007-08, during the runup to the Great Recession. Taken together, June’s data suggests economic activity will continue to decelerate in the months ahead. We forecast that the US economy is likely to be in recession from Q3 2023 to Q1 2024. Elevated prices, tighter monetary policy, harder-to-get credit, and reduced government spending are poised to dampen economic growth further.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Russia Recycling Used Cooking Oil To Make Marine Fuel
  • New EV Innovations Put A Dent In Copper Demand
  • European Warehouses Are Overflowing With Chinese Solar Panels
  • California Consumes Nearly All Renewable Diesel In The U.S.
  • Heatwave Shows That Biden’s Better Grid Initiative Is Woefully Underfunded
  • Tesla shares down on slimming margins, Cybertruck concerns
  • Netflix stock sinks as Wall Street looks for clarity on revenue growth
  • AMC drops plan to charge more for better seats at the movies
  • June home sales drop to the slowest pace in 14 years as short supply chokes the market
  • Futures Movers: Oil prices finish higher with traders’ attention ‘shifting between demand and supply’
  • The Tell: Why U.S. economy is heading to a soft landing, and its stocks may be a better bet than those in China and Europe, says Goldman Sachs

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

19 July 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: The DOW Marks Its Eighth Day Closing Higher While The Nasdaq Closed Flat And The S&P 500 Closed Fractionally Higher

July 19, 2023Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 109 points or 0.31%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 0.03%,
  • S&P 500 closed up 0.24%,
  • Gold $1,982 up $1.00,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $75 down $0.49,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.742% down 0.047 points,
  • USD Index $100.27 up $0.33,
  • Bitcoin $30,055 up $259,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for July 2023

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Privately‐owned housing units authorized by building permits in June 2023 were 15.3% below June 2022. Housing starts 8.1% below June 2022. Housing completions were 5.5% above June 2022. The new home sector is in an interesting position where the output of the process remains in a growth cycle whilst the input to the process (permits and starts) remains in a recession.

 

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Biden’s Infrastructure Boom Is Being Held Back By High Construction Costs
  • Used-Car Prices On A Steady Decline As Inflation Cools
  • Ex-Tesla Exec Secures $5 Billion Valuation On Battery Recycling Venture
  • Baker Hughes Q2 Profit Beats Analyst Estimates
  • Dow jumps 100 points for its eighth straight winning day, a first since 2019: Live updates
  • As Macy’s stock struggles, the retailer bets on private brands with more modern looks
  • Goldman Sachs misses on profit after hits from GreenSky, real estate
  • Apple stock pops on report it’s developing its own equivalent of ChatGPT
  • A Decade Of ‘Deals’: The Definitive Timeline Of The Bidens’ Influence-Peddling
  • Commodities Corner: Wheat prices gain over 8% as Russia-Ukraine tensions rise after the suspension of the grain deal

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Crop Report July 19, 2023 – Crop Condition has Stabilized and May be Improving Somewhat – I Need to do More Research on This.

July 19, 2023Posted inagriculture, weatherNo Comments

This article is based primarily on the July 18, 2023, USDA Crop Bulletin which covers the July 10 to 16 period of time while some meteorological data covers July 9 to 15 since the crop reports may really cover that period of time in practice. The USDA report usually becomes available on Tuesdays and I was not able to publish the report from last week. This week’s report drops some of the graphics I usually present and shows some other graphics that relate to a review of June. I do not think that my readership is that interested in a review of the growing conditions Worldwide in June so I am not presenting that information but it is available in the full USDA Crop Bulletin and the link to that is at the end of the article.  I will probably do a review of June weather for the U.S. in a separate article later this week.

It now seems more like an average crop but it has not gotten worse which is a relief and it seems that some of the crops are doing better. Both corn and soybeans had a very good start but the quality of the crop has been somewhat compromised by drought. Soybeans are doing a bit better than corn. The condition report seems to be a bit better for both crops. The weather outlooks are mostly favorable for most crops.

There is a recent Executive Briefing that would shed a lot more light on the situation. It is a bear to publish but I will see if I can provide the information for some of the key crops over the next two weeks.

I did not include a NASS report this week  I vary these reports to give readers information on different crops. Nothing appealed to me this week.

The article includes a short international review of agricultural conditions.

We begin with the National Agriculture Summary.  The Tables below the summary have additional data. The boxes with my comments may be incomplete so for crops of interest check the data out yourself to be sure.

Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted July 19, 2023

July 19, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 5:10 p.m.  EDT Thursday, July 20, 2023. Sorry for the delay but remember this is a 48 to 72 hour forecast which usually changes slowly.

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day
World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
145 PM EDT Thu Jul 20 2023

Valid 00Z Fri Jul 21 2023 – 00Z Sun Jul 23 2023

…The highest risk of flash flooding/severe storms should persist into
Thursday night in and near the Colorado/Kansas Border…

…Lengthy & dangerous heat wave to continue across the Southern Tier & in
the West…

…Cooler and more comfortable air-mass to engulf the Great Plains and
Midwest…

18 July 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street Opened Fractionally Lower, Trended Sharply Higher After Better Than Expected Earnings Sending The DOW Higher For Seventh Day

July 18, 2023Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 367 points or 1.06%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 0.76%,
  • S&P 500 closed up 0.71%,
  • Gold $1,981 up $25.00,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $76 up $1.58,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.795% down 0.002 points,
  • USD Index $99.95 up $0.11,
  • Bitcoin $29,738 down $126,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for July 2023

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

June 2023 retail sales were up 1.7% year-over-year – 0.9% inflation-adjusted. Non-store retailers and restaurants lead the growth of retail sales. These are relatively weak numbers that are showing little sign of recovery.

Industrial production declined 0.4% year-over-year with industry groups manufacturing declining 0.3%, mining growing 2.8%, and utilities declining 6.2%. This sector remains in a recession.

 

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Russian Aluminum Accounts For 80% Of LME Stockpiles
  • Mounting Deficits Force Euro Minsters To Cut Energy Support Measures
  • What Happens If Consumers Lose Confidence In The Electricity Industry?
  • Ford Slashes F-150 Lightning Price As Tesla Kicks Off Cybertruck Production
  • Oil Prices Stabilize As Traders Await Inventory Report
  • Dow pops more than 300 points for 7th straight positive day, longest winning streak since 2021: Live updates
  • Johnson & Johnson sues Biden administration over Medicare drug price negotiations
  • Bitcoin dips below $30,000, and Gensler says SEC ‘disappointed’ with part of XRP ruling: CNBC Crypto World
  • McDonald’s told to shut franchises over abuse claims
  • ‘Just 1% of the nation’s homes have changed hands this year,’ Redfin says

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.