Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.
We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Tue Oct 10 2023
Valid 12Z Tue Oct 10 2023 – 12Z Thu Oct 12 2023…Colder and unsettled weather to move east from the Pacific Northwest
and northern California through mid-week while above average temperatures
shift into parts of the Great Plains……Surge of tropical moisture to bring an increased threat for heavy rain
and flash flooding for portions of the Gulf Coast through Wednesday…
| Notices: We just published the new NOAA Seasonal Outlook and you can access that report HERE. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here
A pair of cold fronts will move through the western U.S. over the next two
days, bringing precipitation inland across the Northwest, Interior West
and eventually into the central/northern Plains late Wednesday. High
temperature departures of 10 to 20 degrees below mid-October averages will
spread eastward through Wednesday, supporting accumulating snow in the
higher elevations (mainly 7000+ ft) of the central to northern Rockies and
light to moderate rain elsewhere across the West.As the related upper level system approaches the Great Plains on
Wednesday, thunderstorms are expected to develop north of a warm front
extending eastward from the central Plains into the Ohio Valley. Heavy
rain from northern Nebraska/southern South Dakota into portions of the
Midwest could lead to isolated instances of flash flooding Wednesday into
Wednesday night.Across the southern tier of the U.S., a warm front in Gulf of Mexico will
lift northward along with a surge in tropical moisture, partly due to
tropical moisture aloft in the eastern Pacific streaming northeastward
across Mexico. Portions of southern Texas could receive a few inches of
rain through early Wednesday morning, some of which could fall at a high
intensity, supporting a risk for flash flooding. The heavy rain and flash
flood threat will spread northeastward toward the central Gulf Coast and
Southeast during the day on Wednesday into Wednesday night. While the
heaviest rain may remain offshore over the open waters of the Gulf, a few
inches of rain and locally excessive rainfall rates, will be possible from
the central Gulf Coast into southern Alabama/Georgia for Wednesday into
Thursday morning.Across the Great Lakes, showers and cooler than average temperatures will
persist through Wednesday due to a slow-moving closed low aloft, centered
just north of the Great Lakes. The closed low is expected to begin
departing eastward on Thursday along with a temporary improvement in
weather conditions before the next system approaches from the southwest.Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
6– 10
8– 14
3– 4
HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE.
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I hope you found this article interesting and useful. –
