March 2024 Economic Forecast: A Modest Improvement In Our Index Predicting Little Change In Main Street Growth

Authored by Steven Hansen

EconCurrent‘s Economic Index modestly improved but continues insignificantly in negative territory. We continue to forecast that a recession is not imminent. One indicator (Conference Board Leading Economic Index) is no longer signaling a recession, but there remain three other major indicators that are.  Read on to understand the currents affecting our economic growth.

January 2024 Economic Forecast: Our Index Turns Slightly Negative

Authored by Steven Hansen

EconCurrent‘s Economic Index again declined and is now slightly in negative territory. Being slightly in negative territory is not necessarily indicative of a recession, and we continue to believe a recession is not imminent. There remain four major indicators signaling a recession.  Read on to understand the currents affecting our economic growth.

The State of Joe Sixpack in 3Q2023: Joe Should Feel Financially Better Off

Written by Steven Hansen

The Federal Reserve data release (Z.1 Flow of Funds) – which provides insight into the finances of the average household – shows a decrease in average household net worth from the previous quarter but up from one year ago. Our modeled “Joe Sixpack” – who owns a house and has a job, but essentially no other asset – is better off than he was a year ago.

Mortgage Debt and Inflation: Part 4

Note:  A major addition was added to the conclusion at 1:43 a.m. EDT on October 23, 2023.

This article concludes the analysis of the correlation patterns between Mortgage Debt and Consumer Inflation (CPI).  The last of the three types of inflation patterns (time periods with no significant inflation trends) is the subject of analysis here.  The other two types of patterns (inflation surges1 and disinflation/deflation surges2) were analyzed previously.  The conclusion discusses the correlation patterns for all time periods, looks for any common threads, and identifies important differences across time periods and types of correlation patterns.


From a photo by The Agent on Unsplash.

Mortgage Debt and Inflation: Part 3

The full data sets for the 71 years from 1952 to 2022 show no discernable association patterns (correlations) for Mortgage Debt growth and inflation changes.1  Thus, we started an analysis by looking specifically at the various regimes of inflation change during the 71-year timeline.  The most recent post2 analyzed the eight time periods over 71 years with positive inflation surges.  This article analyzes the five periods between 1952 and 2019 with negative inflation (disinflation/deflation) surges.


From an image by Harry Strauss from Pixabay.