We have previously1 used the CPI data available since 1913 to create annualized inflation data aligned with the federal fiscal years from 1914 to 2022. In this post, we use the timeline-matched data to examine leads or lags that may exist between the two variables – government spending and inflation.
Credit: Photo by Ann H from Pexels
In previous posts on this topic,1,2,3 we have looked at the historical records of inflation and deficit spending by the U.S. federal government. The changing dates for the government’s fiscal year over the country’s history confounded the correlation analysis of that data. Since 1913, U.S. inflation data has been recorded monthly. In this post, we will use the data since 1913 to align the timelines of the two variables.
This post will address how data sampling affects the analysis results for correlations between U.S. deficit spending and inflation. In Part 11of this series, it was seen that there is significant variability in this correlation over time. It is essential to know whether that variability is affected by changing the data sampling structure. If changes are connected to data treatment, care must be taken to ensure conclusions are fundamental to the overall data and not an artifact of how it is organized.
Image credit: Gerd Altmann from Pixabay2
“Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon.”
. – – Milton Friedman1
Nobel laureate Milton Friedman is considered to be the father of monetarism. This macroeconomic theory enjoyed popularity in the late 20th century but has come under increased criticism in the 21st century. Monetary theory is deeply linked to arguments about the causes of inflation. As shown here, there is little data to support Friedman’s theory that government spending generally causes inflation. The issue is not as simple as he made it seem.
Milton Friedman, age 77, 1989. Credit: Encyclopedia Britannica.
re “Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon.”
. – – Milton Friedman1
Note: An updated, expanded, and further edited version has been published here.
Nobel laureate Milton Friedman is considered to be the father of monetarism. This macroeconomic theory enjoyed popularity in the late 20th century but has come under increased criticism in the 21st century. Monetary theory is deeply linked to arguments about the causes of inflation. As shown here, there is little data to support Friedman’s theory that government spending generally causes inflation. The issue is not as simple as he made it seem.
Milton Friedman, 1989. Credit: Encyclopedia Britannica.
With all the agitation for gun control to reduce violence in the US, a key point is missed. Over a quarter of US homicides occur by means other than firearms. Even if all gun-related murders are eliminated, the US still has a higher homicide rate than many other countries.
Written by Sig Silber
Here are the latest weather and drought forecasts for January 2022. Every month on the last day of the month NOAA updates the weather forecast for the following month – in this case, January of 2022. Also included is the summary from a recent USDA report on Irrigation by Frank Ward who is a professor at New Mexico State University.
Corrected January 4, 2022. Death per capita numbers were all high by a factor of 10, now correct.
There have been significant differences in the impact of COVID-19 across the various U.S. states. This article will compare the best and worst of these impacts. We look at two important factors: total COVID case counts and COVID deaths. It is found that states faring well or poorly in one regard may not have a similar standing with the other.
by John Lounsbury
I have written articles discussing the business cycle, the National Bureau of Economic Research (nber) process for measuring recessions, and proposals for improved terminology for measuring economic cycles.
