NOAA Updates it’s Four-Season Outlook on March 16, 2023 – Entering ENSO Neutral but it may switch to El Nino after the Summer

March 17, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

On the third Thursday of the month right on schedule NOAA issued what I describe as their Four-Season Outlook. The information released also included the Mid-Month Outlook for the single month of April plus the weather and drought outlook for the next three months.  I present the information issued and try to add context to it. It is quite a challenge for NOAA to address the subsequent month, the subsequent three-month period as well as successive three-month periods for a year or a bit more.

It is very useful to read the excellent discussion that NOAA issues with this Seasonal Outlook.

Ocean conditions no longer reflect La Nina but the atmosphere still has some lingering La Nina characteristics. ENSO Neutral will be the prevailing condition but its impacts are less during the Spring and Summer Seasons. The Southwest Monsoon may start late. The outlook partially reflects El Nino conditions beginning in the Autumn of 2023. We may see more El Nino impacts reflected in the Outlook next month if the confidence in an El Nino gradually increases as we pass through the Spring Prediction Barrier (SPB).

NOAA Updates its Four Season Outlook on December 15, 2022 – La Nina Winter then Big Changes

December 16, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

La Nina Winter, then ENSO Neutral and then maybe something else (this is very little change from last month’s assessment)

Today is the third Thursday of the month so right on schedule NOAA has issued what I describe as their Four-Season Outlook. The information released also includes the MId-Month Outlook for the single month of January plus the weather and drought outlook for the next three months.  I present the information issued and try to add context to it. It is quite a challenge for NOAA to address the subsequent month, the subsequent three-month period as well as successive three-month periods for a year or a bit more.

We will begin to see the impacts of the end of La Nina for precipitation in March/April/May of 2023 and for temperature in May/June/July of 2023.

The maps show a series of changes which I have highlighted in my comments. Next winter will be very different than this winter.

It is very useful to read the excellent discussion that NOAA issues with this Seasonal Outlook. NOAA seems to be more confident about making predictions beyond six months. They even predict a good Southwest Monsoon next summer which they never used to do this far in advance.

NOAA Issues Four-Season Outlook on August 18, 2022

August 20, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Preparing to Say Goodbye to La Nina Early in 2023

Today is the third Thursday of the month so right on schedule NOAA has issued what I describe as their Four-Season Outlook. The information released also includes the Early Outlook for the single month of September plus the weather and drought outlook for the next three months.  I present the information issued and try to add context to it. It is quite a challenge for NOAA to address the subsequent month, the subsequent three-month period as well as successive three-month periods for a year or a bit more.

“The La Niña signature is likely to fade during FMA and MAM 2023, given that La Niña and ENSO-neutral are about even odds”

You can take La Nina out of the forecast, but the warming trend continues. But the Outlook is for a wetter CONUS starting in AMJ 2023. For many parts of CONUS, 2023 will be wetter than 2022. At least that is what NOAA is predicting right now.