Reporting on the State of the Climate in 2022 – September 9, 2023

Every year at about the same time, there is a report on the State of the Climate of the world as of the prior year.  Many organizations work together to produce and distribute this report.  I am presenting the NCEI-prepared highlights of the full report. Remember this report is about 2022 and the years leading up to 2022. It takes a little time for NOAA and the American Meteorological Society to prepare their report and in this article, I provide the Highlights of that report as prepared by NCEI. NCEI stands for the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information.

This article is worth reading. It just presents the highlights. My comments are inside boxes within the article.

This report can be accessed HERE but I have included all of the material that is in this report in this article.

The American Meteorological Society (AMS) version of the report has a lot more detail and can be accessed HERE.

The growth in all three greenhouse gases since 1980 is bad but the increase in methane is particularly concerning.

Nitrous oxide is a very very powerful GHG so its increase in growth rather is very concerning.

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted September 9, 2023: Eyes Still on Hurricane Lee

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sat Sep 09 2023
Valid 12Z Sat Sep 09 2023 – 12Z Mon Sep 11 2023

…Dangerous heat will build across the Southwest, while continuing across
parts of Texas…

…Widespread showers and storms and cooler temperatures will spread
across the northern to the central Plains and the upper to mid Mississippi
Valley…

…Unsettled weather will continue across the East, with locally heavy
rainfall and flooding possible…

08 Sept 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: S&P 500 Snaps Loosing Streak To Close In The Green Along With The Dow And Nasdaq

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 76 points or 0.22%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 0.09%,
  • S&P 500 closed up 0.14%,
  • Gold $1,943 up $0.30,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $87 up $0.47,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.258% down 0.004 points,
  • USD Index $105.07 up $0.010,
  • Bitcoin $25,882 up $5,
  • Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. +1 to 632 Canada -5 to 182

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.


Click here to read our Economic Forecast for September 2023


Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

July 2023 sales of merchant wholesalers were down 4.2 percent from the revised July 2022 level. Total inventories of merchant wholesalers were up 0.5 percent from the revised July 2022 level. The July inventories/sales ratio for merchant wholesalers was 1.39 – down from the July 2022 ratio was 1.33. The inventory-to-sales ratio is the important number as it does not need inflation adjustment and shows a significant trend of growing inventory against sales volumes. Overall both wholesale sales and inventory growth is slowing. Generally, this is a sign of a slowing economy BUT there are so many other supply chain dynamics in play that much of the decline in sales and inventory may be for reasons other than a slowing economy.

In July 2023, consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.5 percent. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 9.2 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 0.2 percent. Personally, this method of calculating the annual rate of growth exaggerates growth. I prefer year-over-year growth which is 4.9% consumer credit growth (blue line in the graph below).

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Engineers Unveil Game-Changing Thin-Film Solid-Sate Battery
  • The Final Curtain For Incandescent Light Bulbs
  • Rig Count Sees Small Gain As WTI Holds At $87
  • China’s Massive Gold-Buying Spree Continues
  • Oil Markets Tighten On Constant Inventory Draws
  • Apartment rents are on the verge of declining due to massive new supply
  • Stellantis offers 14.5% pay increase to UAW, days before possible strike
  • Taylor Swift is single-handedly giving a boost to hotel industry revenue
  • The IRS plans to crack down on 1,600 millionaires to collect millions of dollars in back taxes
  • “We Are Seeing A Minsky Moment For A Grossly Overvalued Nasdaq”
  • The Tell: Why U.S. dollar is at no ‘meaningful risk’ of losing status as the world’s reserve currency, despite challenges from China, says Wells Fargo

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted September 8, 2023: Eyes Still on Hurricane Lee

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Fri Sep 08 2023
Valid 12Z Fri Sep 08 2023 – 12Z Sun Sep 10 2023

…Severe storms possible today across portions of the Northeast, Mid
Atlantic, and from the Red River to the upper Texas and Louisiana coasts

…Dangerous heat continues across parts of the Northeast, south-central
U.S., and the Southwest…

…Increasing chance for heavy rain across portions of the Southeast on
Saturday…

07 Sept 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street Opened Lower, Trended Higher, Finally Closing Mixed

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 58 points or 0.17%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 0.89%,
  • S&P 500 closed down 0.32%,
  • Gold $1,943 down $1.00,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $87 down $0.53,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.252% down 0.038 points,
  • USD Index $105.04 up $0.180,
  • Bitcoin $25,868 up $182

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.


Click here to read our Economic Forecast for September 2023


Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

In the week ending September 2, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims 4-week moving average was 229,250, a decrease of 8,500 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 250 from 237,500 to 237,750.

Nonfarm business sector labor productivity in 2Q2023 (revised) increased 1.3% year-over-year with unit labor costs increasing 2.5% year-over-year. In terms of international competitiveness, when costs rise faster than productivity – it makes a country less competitive. It is interesting that manufacturing productivity fell 1.3% year-over-year whilst labor costs increased 5.3%.

 

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Repurposing Iron Waste For Modern Energy Storage
  • Auto Union Strike Could Crush Steel Demand
  • U.S. Pump Prices Hit Highest Seasonal Level In A Decade
  • U.S. Seizes 1 Million Barrels Of Smuggled Iranian Crude Enroute To China
  • U.S. Drivers Warned Gasoline Could Spike $1 Per Gallon
  • U.S. Solar Capacity Additions To Hit A Record High In 2023
  • Apple shares fall after reports that China banned iPhone use by government employees
  • UAW president calls GM offer with 10% pay increases ‘insulting’ ahead of strike deadline a week away
  • Nasdaq tumbles for a fourth day as fears of higher interest rates pressure markets: Live updates
  • The Bipolar US Economy
  • Bond Report: Treasury yields end lower ahead of next week’s 10- and 30-year auctions

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Crop Report September 7, 2023 – Crops Look Good – The Price Received to Cost Paid Ratio Not So Much

This article is based primarily on the August 29, 2023, USDA Crop Bulletin which covers the week ending September 3, 2023. The USDA report usually becomes available on Tuesdays but was issued this week due to the National Holiday. The full USDA Crop Bulletin can be accessed HERE.

It again seems like an average crop. Hurricane Idalia seems to have had little if any impact but the reporting may need another week to be sure of that.

The article includes a short international review of agricultural conditions. I also included crop-related weather information. I have included the Agricultural Prices Report and it suggests problems for the agriculture sector.

First, we take a look at the impact of Hurricane Idalia

It did not seem to impact the cotton growing area to the extent I had expected it to do but it certainly impacted the citrus growing area. We do not have a report on the impacts of the storm on citrus this week.  This graphic shows the weather impacts but we do not know how it impacted the crop.

We begin with the National Agriculture Summary.  The Tables below the summary have additional data. The boxes with my comments may be incomplete so for crops of interest check the data out yourself to be sure.

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted September 7, 2023: Eyes on Hurricane Lee

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Thu Sep 07 2023
Valid 12Z Thu Sep 07 2023 – 12Z Sat Sep 09 2023

… On Thursday, there is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts
of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic/Central Appalachians…

…There are Heat Advisories and Excessive Heat Warnings over parts of the
Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley and Heat Advisories over the
Northeast on Thursday…

…Air Quality Alerts over parts of the Central Plains, Upper Mississippi
Valley, and Maine on Thursday…

06 Sept 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Possible Fed Rate Hike And Inflation Fears Send Wall Street Indexes Closing Moderately Down

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 199 points or 0.57%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 1.06%,
  • S&P 500 closed down 0.70%,
  • Gold $1,942 down $10.90,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $88 up $0.95,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.298% up 0.030 points,
  • USD Index $104.84 up $0.040,
  • Bitcoin $25,656 down $29,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.


Click here to read our Economic Forecast for September 2023


Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The July 2023 increase in the U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services Deficit increased 2.0% to $65 billion. Inflation-adjusted imports were down 0.3% year-over-year with exports growing 4.4% year-over-year. Declines in imports normally signal a weak to recessionary U.S. economy.

In August, the ISM Services PMI registered 54.5 percent, 1.8 percentage points higher than July’s reading of 52.7 percent. The Business Activity sub-index registered 57.3 percent, a 0.2-percentage point increase compared to the reading of 57.1 percent in July. The New Orders sub-index expanded in August for the eighth consecutive month after contracting in December for the first time since May 2020; the figure of 57.5 percent is 2.5 percentage points higher than the July reading of 55 percent. These numbers are normally indicative of an economy transitioning from weak to normal growth.

According to the 06 September 2023 Beige Book:

Contacts from most Districts indicated economic growth was modest during July and August. Consumer spending on tourism was stronger than expected, surging during what most contacts considered the last stage of pent-up demand for leisure travel from the pandemic era. But other retail spending continued to slow, especially on non-essential items. Some Districts highlighted reports suggesting consumers may have exhausted their savings and are relying more on borrowing to support spending. New auto sales did expand in many Districts, but contacts noted this had more to do with better availability of inventory rather than increased consumer demand. Manufacturing contacts in several Districts also noted that supply chain delays improved, and that they were better able to meet existing orders. New orders were stable or declined in most Districts, and backlogs shortened as demand for manufactured goods waned. One sector where supply did not become more available was single-family housing. Nearly all Districts reported the inventory of homes for sale remained constrained. Accordingly, new construction activity picked up for single-family housing. But multiple Districts noted that construction of affordable housing units was increasingly challenged by higher financing costs and rising insurance premiums. Bankers from different Districts had mixed experiences with growth in loan demand. Most indicated that consumer loan balances rose, and some Districts reported higher delinquencies on consumer credit lines. Agriculture conditions were somewhat mixed, but reports of drought and higher input costs were widespread. Energy activity was mostly unchanged during the final months of the summer.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Soaring Fuel Costs Trigger Airline Warnings
  • Cybersecurity In Focus Ahead Of Berlin NATO Conference
  • New Report Reveals Costly Shift In Green Energy Landscape
  • G7 Price Cap Limits Russian Oil Revenue, But Moscow Has No Shortage Of Buyers
  • Data Centers Are Poaching Texas Oil Workers
  • Dow tumbles nearly 200 points, Nasdaq falls a third straight day as Fed rate hike fears return: Live updates
  • Ukraine drone supplier AeroVironment soars more than 20%, heads for best day in more than 2 years
  • Nasdaq just posted its worst month since December. How the smart money played it
  • Apple buying Disney would be a storybook ending for Iger, but fairy tales aren’t real
  • Ryanair boss calls air traffic chaos report rubbish
  • Bond Report: 2-year Treasury yield ends at one-week high after ISM services-sector report
  • In One Chart: A recession could be nine months away, according to this telltale gauge

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted September 6, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Wed Sep 06 2023
Valid 12Z Wed Sep 06 2023 – 12Z Fri Sep 08 2023

…There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Lower
Mississippi Valley/Tennessee Valley on Wednesday…

…There are Heat Advisories over parts of the Northeast and Southern
Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley on Wednesday…

…Air Quality Alerts over parts of the Northern High Plains, Central
Plains, and Upper Mississippi Valley on Wednesday…

05 Sept 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street Opened Fractionally Lower After Downbeat Global Economic News And Closing Moderately Lower

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 196 points or 0.56%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 0.08%,
  • S&P 500 closed up 0.42%,
  • Gold $1,952 down $15.40,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $87 up $1.14,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.262% up 0.089 points,
  • USD Index $104.81 up $0.580,
  • Bitcoin $25,674 down $220,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.


Click here to read our Economic Forecast for September 2023


Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

No economic releases today

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Puerto Rico’s Solar Rooftop Revolution
  • Iraq-Turkey See More Delays In Resuming Oil Flows
  • From Boom To Gloom: China’s Economic Momentum Dips
  • Oil Prices Jump As Russia And Saudi Arabia Extend Cuts
  • Australia Considers Extending The Life Of Its Biggest Coal Plant
  • Can you use expired Covid tests? What to know as cases rise, new variants emerge
  • Apple, Google, Nvidia and other tech giants are considering buying Arm shares
  • Mortgage rate tipping point: Homeowners say roughly 5% is the magic number to move
  • Peter Schiff: Government Spending Has Bankrupted The US
  • Is Subprime Credit-Card Crisis Looming?
  • IPO Report: Arm IPO: 5 things to know about the chip designer central to the AI transition

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.