Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted November 19, 2023

November 19, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sun Nov 19 2023
Valid 12Z Sun Nov 19 2023 – 12Z Tue Nov 21 2023

…Unsettled weather expands across the western U.S. with strong winds,
high-elevation snows, and coastal/lower-elevation rains…

…Low pressure system developing over the central High Plains will bring
an expanding area of showers and thunderstorms across the central U.S.
towards the eastern U.S….

…Above average temperatures for the South and the Northern Plains while
colder air surges across the western U.S….

Adventures With 3 Coin Flips. Part 3: Possibilities vs. Realities

November 19, 2023Posted inUncategorizedNo Comments

Flipping a coin three times seems like a simple process.  But there are myriad complications that can arise.  In Part 1 of this series, we saw that data sampling for coin flips can influence how results are interpreted.  In this post, we will look closely at how probability assessments (possibilities) can lead to propositions deviating from the reality ensuing when coin flips are actually carried out.  We will consider the concept of ‘alternate universes’.  Who would have guessed that flipping a coin three times would go there?

Crop Report of Progress and Production Estimates November 18, 2023

November 18, 2023Posted inagricultureNo Comments

Record High Corn Forecast

This article is based primarily on two sets of information:

A. The Crop Bulletin that was issued on November 14, 2023, and

B. Crop Production Executive Summary issued on November 9, 2023.  We only used a limited number of graphics from this long presentation…different graphics than we used last month. We provide a link to the full report. For the three main crops the NASS forecasts are higher than many of the industry forecasts so we will see if NASS has it right or if NASS is being overly optimistic.

We are coming to the end of this growing season so we are including both the progress of crops and the estimates of the final production hence the use of the two reports.

This article includes a short international review of agricultural conditions which are generally favorable. I also included U.S. crop-related weather forecasts.

 

We first look at the National Agriculture Summary.  The Tables below the summary have additional data.

Below is pretty much the same information in table format. However, there is a lot of additional information in these tables.

 

 

Some additional detail is provided HERE

It is mostly some additional weeks of data and it is all in larger print.

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted November 18, 2023

November 18, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sat Nov 18 2023
Valid 12Z Sat Nov 18 2023 – 12Z Mon Nov 20 2023

…Unsettled weather expands across the western U.S. with strong winds,
high-elevation snows and coastal rains…

…Another system forming over the central High Plains will bring an
expanding area of showers and thunderstorms across the central U.S….

…Great Plains warms up as the West cools down…

17 Nov 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street Opened Mixed, Early Morning And Afternoon Saw Trading Along The Unchanged Line In A Very Narrow Trading Zone, Finally Closing Up And Mostly Flat

November 17, 2023Posted inmarketsNo Comments
  • The Dow closed up 2 points or 0.01%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 0.08%,
  • S&P 500 closed up 0.13%,
  • Gold $1,983 down $4.10,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $76 up $2.89,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.439% down 0.006 points,
  • USD Index $103.87 down $0.470,
  • Bitcoin $36,392 up $484 ( 1.59% )
  • Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. up 2 to 618 rigs

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for November 2023

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Privately‐owned housing units authorized by building permits in October 2023 were down 4.4% YoY – up from the -7.4% the previous month (blue line on the graph below). Privately‐owned housing starts were down 4.2% YoY – up from the 8.0% the previous month (red line on the graph below). Privately‐owned housing under construction were little changed at 1,674,000 annualized (orange line on the graph below). Privately‐owned housing completions were down to 1,410,000 annualized – down from the 1,478,000 the previous month (green line on the graph below). Cutting through the haze of the data, new housing is actually fairly strong despite high interest rates as evidenced by the high count of units under construction and completed.

 

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • OPEC Said To Consider Additional 1 Million Bpd Output Cut
  • Oil Gains Over 4% Likely On Profit-Taking, Short Covering
  • Breakthrough Research Unveils True Cause of Battery Degradation
  • US Drillers See Sharpest One-Week Increase In Oil Rigs Since February
  • U.S. Sanctions U.A.E. Maritime Firms for Bypassing Russian Oil Price Cap
  • OpenAI’s Sam Altman exits as CEO because ‘board no longer has confidence’ in ability to lead
  • Black Friday came early this year, signaling worries about holiday demand
  • S&P 500 ends Friday slightly higher, major averages cruise to third week of gains: Live updates
  • White House blasts Elon Musk for promoting ‘Antisemitic and racist hate’
  • Autumn Statement: Jeremy Hunt considering cuts to inheritance tax
  • Market Snapshot: U.S. stocks rise, Dow heads for third straight week of gains

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

NOAA Updates Its Seasonal Outlook on November 16, 2023 – El Nino Weather through Late Spring

November 17, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

On the third Thursday of the month right on schedule NOAA issued their updated Seasonal Outlook which I describe as their Four-Season Outlook because it extends a bit more than one year into the future. The information released also included the Mid-Month Outlook for the following month plus the weather and drought outlook for the next three months.  I present the information issued by NOAA and try to add context to it. It is quite a challenge for NOAA to address the subsequent month, the subsequent three-month period as well as the twelve successive three-month periods for a year or a bit more.

First, Let’s Take a Look at the (mid-month) Outlook for December. It will be updated on the last day of November.

Then I present a graphic that shows both the preliminary Outlook for December and the three-month outlook for DJF 2023-2024. So you get the full picture in one graphic. For some, that may be all they are interested in. Others will be interested in the longer-term predictions and also the rationale supporting the predictions which is mostly provided by the NOAA discussion.

The top row is what is now called the Mid-Month Outlook for next month which will be updated at the end of this month. There is a temperature map and a precipitation map. The second row is a three-month outlook that includes next month.  I think the outlook maps are self-explanatory. What is important to remember is that they show deviations from the current definition of normal which is the period 1991 through 2020.  So this is not a forecast of the absolute value of temperature or precipitation but the change from what is defined as normal or to use the technical term “climatology”.

Notice that the outlook for next month and the three-month outlooks are somewhat different with respect to temperature and also to some extent precipitation.  This tells us that January and February will be different than December to some extent.

The full NOAA Seasonal Outlook extends through December/January/February of 2025. All of these maps are in the body of the article. Large maps are there for December and the three-month period Dec/Jan/Feb.  Small maps are provided beyond that through February of 2025 with a link to get larger versions of these maps.

NOAA provides an excellent discussion to support the maps.[Author’s Note: many other meteorological agencies see this El Nino being stronger than NOAA does so there is more than usual uncertainty relating to the more distant months.]

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted November 17, 2023

November 17, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Fri Nov 17 2023
Valid 12Z Fri Nov 17 2023 – 12Z Sun Nov 19 2023

…Heavy rain over eastern to northern Florida Peninsula expected to taper
off later today as main low pressure system moves out to sea…

…Unsettled weather expanding into the western U.S. through the weekend…

…A cold front will usher gusty winds and much colder temperatures from
the northern Plains today and spreading into the eastern U.S. on Sunday…

cone graphic

16 Nov 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street Opened Fractionally Mixed, Then Traded Near The Unchanged Line, Finally Closing About Where It Opened

November 16, 2023Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 46 points or 0.14%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 0.07%,
  • S&P 500 closed up 0.12%,
  • Gold $1,985 up $20.20,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $73 down $3.79,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.449% down 0.088 points,
  • USD Index $104.42 up $0.020,
  • Bitcoin $36,903 down $1,660 ( 4.42% )

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for November 2023

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Industrial production declined 0.7% year-over-year in October 2023 (blue line in the graph below).  The manufacturing component fell 1.7% year-over-year (red line in the graph below), the utilities component was up 2.9% year-over-year (green line in the graph below), and the mining component was up 2.2% year-over-year (orange line in the graph below). Much of the decline this month in manufacturing was due to a 10 percent drop in the output of motor vehicles and parts that were affected by strikes at several major manufacturers of motor vehicles.  Capacity utilization moved down 0.6 percentage points to 78.9 percent in October, a rate that is 0.8 percentage point below its long-run (1972–2022) average. Manufacturing remains in a recession.

The Philly Fed Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey shows manufacturing activity in the region continued to decline overall in November 2023. The survey’s indicator for general activity rose but remained negative. The indicator for shipments turned negative, while the indicator for new orders was positive but low. I will never be a fan of surveys, and this one directly contradicts the New York Fed’s Empire manufacturing survey released yesterday. I see very few signs of the manufacturing sector climbing out of its current recession.

U.S. import prices declined 2.0% year-over-year in October 2023 – down from -1.5% year-over-year the previous month. Export prices also declined -4.9% year-over-year – down from -4.3% year-over-year the previous month. Disinflation continues in export/import data – and is normally a signal of weak economies.

The number of CEO changes at U.S. companies fell in October as 105 CEOs left their posts in the month. It is down 34% from the 164 CEO changes announced in September, and up 48% from the 71 CEOs who left their posts in the same month last year, according to a report released Thursday by global outplacement and business and executive coaching firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc. So far this year, 1,530 CEOs have left their posts, up 47% from the 1,040 CEO changes during the same period in 2022. It is the highest total in the first ten months of the year since the firm began tracking in 2002. Andrew Challenger, workplace expert and Senior Vice President stated:

Boards are making leadership changes to better manage the issues of remote workers, to weather economic headwinds, and incorporate new technology. Meanwhile, CEOs who have taken on unprecedented challenges the last few years are taking the opportunity to leave.

In the week ending November 11, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims 4-week moving average was 220,250, an increase of 7,750 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 250 from 212,250 to 212,500.
The Kansas Fed manufacturing composite index was -2 in November 2023 – up from -8 in October. Manufacturing remains in a recession in the US.

 

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • EU Clamps Down on Companies Aiding Russian War Efforts
  • Innovative Glass Coating Harnesses Cosmic Cold for Climate Control
  • Thanksgiving Travel Surges To Pre-Covid Peaks, Marking A Return To Normalcy
  • Oil Sheds Over 3% As Markets Remain Unconvinced On China
  • America’s Best-Selling Sedan Will Be Hybrid-Only by 2025
  • Deflation could be coming this holiday season, Walmart CEO says
  • Judge lifts Trump gag order in $250 million New York business fraud case
  • Boeing bonanza leaves rival Airbus in the dust at 2023 Dubai Air Show with three times more aircraft orders
  • Over 100 Faculty Rip Harvard President’s Condemnation Of Slogan “From The River To The Sea”
  • Elon Musk pours cold water on Starlink IPO in 2024
  • Bond Report: 10-year Treasury yield sinks to 4.4% on softer economic data, Walmart CEO talks of ‘deflation’

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Looking back at October for the World November 16, 2023 – Earth had its Warmest October Ever Since Reliable Data has been Available.

November 16, 2023Posted inClimate, weatherNo Comments

Most of the information in this report comes from the monthly email I receive from John Bateman. He does public outreach for NOAA and in particular NCEI. I could find the same information and more on the NCEI website but John produces a good summary so I use it or most of it. I also sometimes add additional information from NCEI or other NOAA websites. The full NCEI report for October can be accessed HERE.

I added the below to what John Bateman provided.

 

This shows the temperature anomaly for the single month of October dating back to 1850 plus the same graphic for the year to date including October. The increase this October is mind-boggling. Many believe that there were factors other than the steady increase in greenhouse gases and the onset of El Nino that caused this big increase which we also saw in recent months but the increase in October is shocking. The oceans are warming also but we will address that at another time but it is significant. In the above, it is the surface temperature land and ocean which is shown. The warming of the layers of the ocean below the surface is of considerable concern.

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted November 16, 2023

November 16, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Thu Nov 16 2023
Valid 12Z Thu Nov 16 2023 – 12Z Sat Nov 18 2023

…Heavy rainfall and threat for flash flooding across the eastern Florida
Peninsula today…

…Wet/unsettled weather for California through the rest of the week…

…Another mild day for the Midwest/Great Lakes today with high
temperatures 15 to 25 degrees above average…