Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 370 points or 1.08%,
• Nasdaq closed down 1.82%,
• S&P 500 closed down 1.64%,
• Gold $1,940 down $27.20,
• WTI crude oil settled at $90 down $0.02,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.486% up 0.139 points,
• USD Index $105.39 up $0.270,
• Bitcoin $26,596 down $368,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our Economic Forecast for September 2023

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The Philly Fed’s September 2023 Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey declined as indicators for general activity, new orders, and shipments returned to negative territory after turning positive in August. Manufacturing remains in a recession.

In the week ending September 16, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted unemployment initial claims 4-week moving average was 217,000, a decrease of 7,750 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 250 from 224,500 to 224,750. There is no indication of an economic slowdown in these unemployment claims.

Existing-home sales moved lower in August, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. Among the four major U.S. regions, sales improved in the Midwest, were unchanged in the Northeast, and slipped in the South and West. All four regions recorded year-over-year sales declines.

The National Association of Realtor’s existing home sales declined 0.7% month-over-month and down 15.3% year-over-year. Total housing inventory declined 14.1% from one year ago. The median existing-home price for all housing types in August was $407,100, an increase of 3.9% from August 2022. NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun added:

Home sales have been stable for several months, neither rising nor falling in any meaningful way. Mortgage rate changes will have a big impact over the short run, while job gains will have a steady, positive impact over the long run. The South had a lighter decline in sales from a year ago due to greater regional job growth since coming out of the pandemic lockdown.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. declined by 0.4 percent in August 2023 to 105.4 (2016=100), following a decline of 0.3 percent in July. The LEI is down 3.8 percent over the six-month period between February and August 2023—little changed from its 3.9 percent contraction over the previous six months (August 2022 to February 2023). Note that the authors of this index continue to project a recession but I have yet to see any recession indication in the broad economy inside the data I review. Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board stated:

With August’s decline, the US Leading Economic Index has now fallen for nearly a year and a half straight, indicating the economy is heading into a challenging growth period and possible recession over the next year. The leading index continued to be negatively impacted in August by weak new orders, deteriorating consumer expectations of business conditions, high interest rates, and tight credit conditions. All these factors suggest that going forward economic activity probably will decelerate and experience a brief but mild contraction. The Conference Board forecasts real GDP will grow by 2.2 percent in 2023, and then fall to 0.8 percent in 2024.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Germany Makes New Energy Savings Measures Mandatory
• New BRICS Members Solidify The Bloc’s Renewable Leadership
• MBS To Fox: Saudi Arabia Will Get Nuclear Arms If Iran Does
• Russia Attacks Ukraine’s Energy Infrastructure Ahead Of Winter
• Russia Curbs Gasoline And Diesel Exports To Stabilize Domestic Prices
• ow tumbles more than 300 points to notch third day of losses amid fears of higher rates, government shutdown
• Here’s everything Microsoft announced at its Surface and Copilot event in New York
• Bitcoin sinks below $27,000 after Fed signals keeping rates higher for longer: CNBC Crypto World
• 10-year Treasury yield hits its highest level since 2007 as jobless claims decline
• Musk’s SpaceX Countersues DOJ, Says Case Over Refusal To Hire Refugees Is Unconstitutional
• Bitcoin Vs Ethereum: A Culture War Rooted In First Principles
• Bond Report: 2-year Treasury yield carves out another 17-year high after hawkish Fed meeting

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 77 points or 0.22%,
• Nasdaq closed down 1.53%,
• S&P 500 closed down 0.94%,
• Gold $1,955 up $1.50,
• WTI crude oil settled at $90 down $0.93,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.379% up 0.012 points,
• USD Index $105.40 up $0.200,
• Bitcoin $26,971 down $188,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our Economic Forecast for September 2023

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Today the Federal Reserve decided NOT to raise the federal funds rate (blue dotted line on the graph below). Their meeting statement said in part:

Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. Job gains have slowed in recent months but remain strong, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation remains elevated. The U.S. banking system is sound and resilient. Tighter credit conditions for households and businesses are likely to weigh on economic activity, hiring, and inflation. The extent of these effects remains uncertain. The Committee remains highly attentive to inflation risks. The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 5-1/4 to 5-1/2 percent.

In a follow-up news conference, Fed Chair Powells stated:

We’re in a position to proceed carefully in determining the extent of additional policy firming. We want to see convincing evidence that we have reached the appropriate [federal funds rate] level, and we’re seeing progress and we welcome that. But, you know, we need to see more progress before we’ll be willing to reach that conclusion.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Despite Oil’s Rally, Fed Holds Off On Rate Hike
• Electric Dream On Pause? UK’s Fuel Car Ban Faces Delay
• Tandem Solar Cells Poised To Revolutionize Energy Market
• Oil Jumps As Crude Inventories Draw
• California Truckers Race To Buy Diesel Rigs Ahead Of New Zero-Emission Rule
• Fed declines to hike, but points to rates staying higher for longer
• Stocks slide as Fed signals it’s not done hiking rates, Nasdaq falls 1.5%: Live updates
• Here’s what changed in the new Fed statement
• U.S. will again offer free at-home Covid tests starting Monday
• Weekly mortgage demand increases, driven by a strange surge in refinancing
• Wall Street Reacts To The Fed’s “Confused” 2024 Hawkish Shock
• JPM Markets Desk: “Sentiment Is Turning Very Negative On The US Consumer”
• ond Report: 2-year Treasury yield ends at fresh 17-year high after Fed decision, Powell’s remarks

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 107 points or 0.31%,
• Nasdaq closed down 0.23%,
• S&P 500 closed down 0.22%,
• Gold $1,953 down $0.60,
• WTI crude oil settled at $92 up $0.17,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.365% up 0.046 points,
• USD Index $105.14 down $0.060,
• Bitcoin $27,180 up $377,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our Economic Forecast for September 2023

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Privately‐owned housing units authorized by building permits in August 2023 were 2.7 percent below August 2022. Privately‐owned housing starts in August were 14.8 percent below August 2022. Privately‐owned housing completions in August were 3.8 percent above August 2022. Residential construction is in a recession except for completions which surprisingly has remained in positive growth (both permits and starts are down indicating there are fewer homes being built in the last 16 months – at some point, construction completions must start contracting IF the data is correct).

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Tata Steel’s Port Talbot Set For £1.25 Billion Green Transformation
• High Fuel Costs Challenge Airline Profits After Busy Summer
• Exxon To Increase Oil Production In Nigeria
• Oil Prices Climb As Bullish News Continues To Mount
• Trans Mountain Expansion Set To Raise Crude Prices For Midwest Refiners
• Instacart closes up 12% in Nasdaq debut, after first-day rally sputters
• U.S. national debt hits $33 trillion for the first time
• Defensive stocks for worried investors to buy if upcoming threats rattle the market
• Outside the Box: Americans are working harder and making less. We need a new social safety net

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 6 points or 0.02%,
• Nasdaq closed up 0.01%,
• S&P 500 closed up 0.07%,
• Gold $1,954 up $8.20,
• WTI crude oil settled at $92 up $0.95,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.313% down 0.009 points,
• USD Index $105.12 down $0.200,
• Bitcoin $26,834 up $331,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our Economic Forecast for September 2023

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

40% of sea container imports come through the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach. Container statistics are published weeks to months before import data is released by the government. For the month of August 2023, there was an improvement (imports only down 4% and exports only down 2%) but as you can see from the graph below – imports and exports are below their historical averages. Imports are normally a sign of how well the US economy is performing, and imports are saying the economy is weak. The quantity of imports could have been elevated by container ships from Asia to east coast ports rerouting cargo to the west coast due to congestion / delays in the Panama Canal.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Oil Closes In On $95 Per Barrel, Hitting $100 In Some Markets
• $6 Billion In Iranian Oil Funds Unfrozen As Tehran Releases U.S. Prisoners
• U.S. Gasoline Prices Rise On Refinery Outages
• ChatGPT’s Surprising Environmental Footprint Revealed
• Striking unions impacting the economy at a level not seen in decades
• Stellantis could close 18 facilities under UAW deal — here are the full details of its latest offer
• S&P 500 closes little changed Monday as traders await Fed policy meeting: Live updates
• Goldman says iPhone demand outpacing supply, sees more than 20% upside for Apple shares
• Elon Musk says Twitter, now X, is moving to small monthly subscription and has 550 million users
• Moderna Plunges After Pfizer Sees Just 24% Of Americans Seeking Covid Boosters
• “How Do You Lose An F-35?”: US Military Can’t Find Stealth Jet After “Mishap”
• Bitcoin climbs above $27,000 for the first time since August
• Economic Report: UAW auto strike looms large for inflation and economy

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.