17 Oct 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street Opens Sharply Lower On Golden Sachs, Intel Losses, And Digesting Questionable Retail Sales Data, Closing Mostly Flat And Mixed

October 17, 2023Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 13 points or 0.04%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 0.25%,
  • S&P 500 closed down 0.01%,
  • Gold $1,936 up $1.70,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $87 up $0.55,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.838% up 0.130 points,
  • USD Index $106.19 down $0.050,
  • Bitcoin $28,525 up $57,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for October 2023

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Industrial production increased in September 2023 0.1% year-over-year – the three industrial production components manufacturing (red line on the graph below), utilities (green line on the graph below), and mining (orange line on the graph below) increased -0.8%, 2.0%, and 3.4% respectively year-over-year. Overall the manufacturing component remains in a recession and does not indicate an improving trend – and manufacturing represents approximately 20% of the economy.

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for September 2023 were up 3.4% year-over-year (blue line on the graph below – unadjusted data). If one adjusts for inflation, retail and food sales were up 1.5% (red line on the graph below). This year-over-year growth rate is similar to last month thereby showing almost no acceleration month-over-month. Please do not be fooled by the bullshit reporting throwing out “Retail sales rose 0.7% in September, more than twice what economists had expected, and close to a revised 0.8% bump in August, the Commerce Department reported Tuesday.” There is no resilience of shoppers in the U.S. considering that gas stations are over 100% of the increase in spending year-over-year.

Several economic indicators suggest that while the labor market remains tight, consumers and businesses are approaching the end of the year with caution. In a new survey, 46% of companies expect a recession, with 24% actively planning for one. That number jumps to 52% for companies with more than 5,000 employees, according to new survey results released Wednesday from global outplacement and business and executive coaching firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc.

CoreLogic’s Single-Family Rent Index (SFRI) shows annual U.S. single-family rent growth eased again in August 2023 but renters are still feeling the pinch. The average American renter household spends about 40% of its income on housing costs, with lower-income tenants bearing much of the brunt of inflation. The SFRI’s low tier saw the largest year-over-year rental cost gain in August (up by 4.2%), while the high tier registered a 2.4% annual increase. Molly Boesel, principal economist for CoreLogic added:

While annual single-family rent growth has returned to a moderate pace, more than three years of substantial increases will have a lasting impact on tenants’ budgets. Single-family rents grew by 30% since February 2020, and small drops in some areas barely put a dent in the overall, cumulative increase. For example, even though rents in the Miami metro area have declined by 0.5% since August 2022, they are still 51% higher than they were before the pandemic began.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • EV Battery Costs Could Surge By 22%
  • Goldman’s Grim Forecast: Shipping Industry Faces Prolonged Downturn
  • Russian Oil Shipping Rates Jump As The U.S. Sanctions Price Cap Evaders
  • Oil Markets Remain On Edge As Biden Heads To Israel
  • Homebuilder sentiment drops to 10-month low, as mortgage rates soar
  • S&P 500 closes little changed Tuesday as Treasury yields pop on hot retail sales data: Live updates
  • Retail sales rose 0.7% in September, much stronger than estimate
  • Wages overtake inflation for first time in nearly two years
  • Market Extra: ‘Bond math’ shows traders bold enough to bet on Treasurys could reap dazzling returns with little risk
  • 5 charts that show how the housing market crashed and burned in 18 months
  • Shares of bankrupt Rite Aid plunge despite meme-stock chatter

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted October 17, 2023

October 17, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Tue Oct 17 2023
Valid 12Z Tue Oct 17 2023 – 12Z Thu Oct 19 2023

…An Alberta clipper will bring very gusty winds and a round of rain
across the northern Plains later today and Wednesday, spreading into the
Great Lakes Wednesday night and early Thursday…

…A warming trend is in store for the eastern half of the country as an
expansive cool airmass moderates…

…Warm and dry air across much of the western U.S. will spread into the
Plains but rainy conditions remain over the Pacific Northwest…

16 Oct 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Dow Jumps 370 Points Ahead Of Earnings Reporting, Shaking Off Israel-Hamas War And The Looming Treasury Bear

October 16, 2023Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 314 points or 0.93%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 1.20%,
  • S&P 500 closed up 1.06%,
  • Gold $1,932 down $9.10,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $87 down $0.87,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.706% up 0.079 points,
  • USD Index $106.19 down $0.450,
  • Bitcoin $28,425 up $1,391,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for October 2023

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Business activity edged lower in New York State, according to firms responding to the October 2023 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index fell seven points to -4.6. New orders fell slightly, while shipments were little changed. Last month’s modestly positive report should be ignored. Manufacturing remains in a recession. The New York Fed is the first district to report on manufacturing for October.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Big Oil Shares Up As Israel-Hamas Conflict Intensifies
  • Glut Of Synthetic Diamonds Sparks Trouble For Lab-Grown Producers
  • Indonesia Eyes “Critical Mineral Agreement” With U.S. For Nickel Exports
  • Saudi Arabia’s Crude Oil Exports Slumped To 28-Month Low In August
  • Meta’s unique approach to developing AI puzzles Wall Street, but techies love it
  • Stocks close higher, Dow rallies 300 points as optimism over earnings outweighs higher rates: Live updates
  • Israel-Hamas war live updates: Blinken meets with Israeli president, promises U.S. support; Gaza-Egypt border still closed
  • Trump hit with partial gag order in DC elections case, barred from publicly targeting Jack Smith, potential witnesses
  • 53% of Gen Z see high cost of living as a barrier to financial success. They’re ‘buckling down,’ expert says
  • Moderna’s stock slides to three-year low as co-founder sells more shares

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Looking back at September for the United States October 16, 2023 – There is Cause for Concern

October 16, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Most of the information in this report comes from the monthly email I receive from John Bateman. He does public outreach for NOAA and in particular NCEI. I could find the same information and more on the NCEI website but John produces a good summary so I use it or most of it. I also sometimes add additional information from NCEI or other NOAA websites. John Bateman sends me two emails. One on the World situation and one for the U.S.

This article is about September 2023 in the U.S.

One of the things I like to add to what John Bateman sends me is the state ranking maps. These maps show how temperature and precipitation for each state rank relative to the 129 years of what is considered to be the most reliable data we have. When I was working on this article Friday night the NOAA website for the state ranking was not working correctly and I thought I would not be able to include the state rankings but I was able to fiddle with the url and get it to provide me with the images I wanted. Sometimes the weekly USDA crop bulletin also includes those images. At any rate, I was able to include those images in the article so I think readers may find it interesting.

This is the North America Temperature trend not specific to the U.S. but this is what I was able to find.  You do see that September was a big increase over the trend, there is a regression line in this graphic. The slope is 1.31C per century. That is quite a bit. For comparison, I am showing below the Global Trend.  The full report on Global September Weather can be accessed HERE.

 

Not surprisingly the global trend is smoother since it averages in multiple parts of Earth. But in both cases, the question is why the steep rise started perhaps in 1980 Globally but showed up more in North America in perhaps 1997 when we had the MegaNino.  That seems to be the time the Pacific Decadal Oscillation changed phase to PDO Neg.

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted October 16, 2023

October 16, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Mon Oct 16 2023
Valid 12Z Mon Oct 16 2023 – 12Z Wed Oct 18 2023

…A cool autumn air-mass will be slow to depart the eastern half of the
country with scattered showers in parts of the Northeast, Great Lakes, and
Central Appalachians…

…Warm and dry across much of the western U.S. but rainy conditions over
the Pacific Northwest…

…A warming trend expected in the Great Plains as a round of rain reaches
into the northern Plains late Tuesday…

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted October 15, 2023

October 15, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sun Oct 15 2023
Valid 12Z Sun Oct 15 2023 – 12Z Tue Oct 17 2023

…Departing deep storm will usher cooler and damp autumn weather
throughout the eastern half of the country with areas of showers lingering
over the Northeast, lower Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and into southern
Appalachians…

…Warm and dry across much of the western U.S. but rainy conditions
continue over the Pacific Northwest…

Mortgage Debt and Inflation: Part 3

October 15, 2023Posted inmacroeconomicsNo Comments

The full data sets for the 71 years from 1952 to 2022 show no discernable association patterns (correlations) for Mortgage Debt growth and inflation changes.1  Thus, we started an analysis by looking specifically at the various regimes of inflation change during the 71-year timeline.  The most recent post2 analyzed the eight time periods over 71 years with positive inflation surges.  This article analyzes the five periods between 1952 and 2019 with negative inflation (disinflation/deflation) surges.


From an image by Harry Strauss from Pixabay.

Looking back at September for the World October 14, 2023 – Earth had its Warmest September Ever Since Reliable Data has been Available.

October 14, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Most of the information in this report comes from the monthly email I receive from John Bateman. He does public outreach for NOAA and in particular NCEI. I could find the same information and more on the NCEI website but John produces a good summary so I use it or most of it. I also sometimes add additional information from NCEI or other NOAA websites.

I added the below to what John Bateman provided.

 

This shows the temperature anomaly for the single month of September dating back to 1850. The increase this September is mind-boggling. Many believe that there were factors other than the steady increase in greenhouse gases and the onset of El Nino that caused this big increase which we also saw in recent months but the increase in September is shocking. Ignore 1886 as that is just an artifact from when I snipped this trend analysis. The oceans are warming also but we will address that at another time but it is significant. In the above, it is the surface temperature land and ocean which is shown. The warming of the layers of the ocean below the surface is of considerable concern.

 

 

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted October 14, 2023

October 14, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sat Oct 14 2023
Valid 12Z Sat Oct 14 2023 – 12Z Mon Oct 16 2023

…A low pressure system will bring unsettled weather from the upper
Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic region today…

…Windy but slowly improving weather expected across much of the eastern
U.S. on Sunday into Monday as the strong low pressure system moves off the
East Coast…

…Dry across much of the western half of the country but rainy along
coastal Pacific Northwest and northern California…

13 Oct 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Friday The Thirteenth An Unlucky Session For Wall Street As Investors Watch Equities Suffer

October 13, 2023Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 39 points or 0.12%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 1.23%,
  • S&P 500 closed down 0.50%, (low 4,328)
  • Gold $1,941 up $58.30,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $88 up $4.72,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.623% down 0.088 points,
  • USD Index $106.62 up $0.030,
  • Bitcoin $26,758 up $45,
  • Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. +3 to 622 Canada +13 to 193

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for October 2023

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Export and import prices continue to deflate. Prices for U.S. imports declined 1.7 percent for the year ending in September 2023, whilst U.S. exports decreased 4.1 percent over the past year. This makes some sense as international trade is flat.

University of Michigan preliminary consumer sentiment fell back about 7% this October following two consecutive months of very little change. Assessments of personal finances declined about 15%, primarily on a substantial increase in concerns over inflation, and one-year expected business conditions plunged about 19%. However, long-run expected business conditions are little changed, suggesting that consumers believe the current worsening in economic conditions will not persist. Nearly all demographic groups posted setbacks in sentiment, reflecting the continued weight of high prices.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • JPMorgan CEO Dimon: World Is Facing Most Dangerous Time In Decades
  • U.S. Oil Drillers Add 4 Rigs, Brent Crude Hits $90
  • The U.S. Allocates $7 Billion Of Grants To Hydrogen Production Hubs
  • Desperate And Incompetent: Hamas May Have Acted Alone
  • Oil Prices Rally As The U.S. Enforces Sanctions On Russian Exports
  • Israel-Hamas war live updates: Civilians scramble to flee north Gaza ahead of expected Israeli ground offensive
  • S&P 500 closes lower on Friday, but notches second straight positive week: Live updates
  • Pharmacy staff from Walgreens, other chains could stage nationwide walkout and rallies in coming weeks
  • Crypto’s role in the Israel-Hamas war comes under scrutiny: CNBC Crypto World
  • Economists Warn Of “Bigger” Middle East War, But Yellen Downplays Its Economic Impact
  • Market Snapshot: Dow turns lower as U.S. stocks fall amid Middle East tensions
  • Bond Report: 10-, 30-year yields have biggest weekly drops in months as investors flock to safety on Middle East tensions

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.